Confirmation margin on record. She will take over. The president himself is calling on congress to extend Unemployment Benefits therein that vote will happen today about 12 noon. The russian is t will than the benefits by 13 weeks. Not cheap. It costs 6. 4 billion. Has noted that for every one dollar you spend that you give people via Unemployment Benefits, that translates into 1. 5 of gdp. Finally, samsung. The first profit decline in nine quarters. They are having a tough one. We scoured the papers this morning. For me, i am loving Eliot Spitzer and his jamaica trip. It is cold outside. We have got record lows across the country today. Yesterday in chicago, minus six degrees. We will struggle. That is not a wind chill. That is the low. And the in the midwest northeast. Today in atlanta, the low is minus five in orlando. Class and they cannot handle it. I cannot imagine taking my kids to disney world. Orlando in orlando, people in minneapolis are ready for. People had no shirts on. The lows yesterday, 10,000 employees. There is a huge Market Impact everywhere. Electricity is soaring. The cost of the and materials used to make it our going way up. Price, look spot all the way on the righthand side. 60. Per million british thermal units. Usually 4. 80. Kerry, do you think it is cold . Americans are not surprised by this. We have seen polling data in which 60 of americans say weather patterns in the country have become more unstable. Say weather is becoming more extreme. Weatherrelated disasters are becoming more serious. Isple are where something going on. Everyone talks about the weather but what will we do about it . What about Global Warming. It says there will be volatile temperatures, not just warm ones. This coincides with what Global Warming has always said. Extreme volatility. Of extremeoment volatility. Public is aware of a problem and concern about antics earrings yet but waiting for solutions. You have been generating polls for decades. I quoted your numbers more often than i can count and now i get to sit here with you. Why is it we are all talking more about the weather . There is something that happened 10 years ago. El nino. What is it . Winter, it is cold, it is fun to talk about, particularly now. But this is a Public Policy issue. Two thirds of americans think there is solid ever evidence average temperatures in the world are getting warmer. A rude awakening. The notion of Climate Change and more unstable weather patterns has taken home taken hold. It is experiential. We are living through this. People are experiencing it and wondering what we do about it. There have not been policy proposals acceptable across a spectrum of political interests and concerns in the country. That is why we are flummoxed. That makes it an interesting story to discuss. This is an issue in which there is broad agreement that there is a challenge and a problem. There is a lot of agreement with airlines. People are fed up with delays. On hold with united airlines, 12 hours. Numbers . Do you have i do not. A lot of people do not fly much at all. Travelersenience for will be a significant concern. What really challenges people is not what they hear in the abstract about problems, whether they are economic or you name it. Experience them at home. They are experiencing unstable weather patterns and growing more concerned. People will look for solutions to these problems. We will talk later more about politics and the absence of solutions, a source of great restriction. Everyone is agreement on the streets of new york city. Jpmorgan. Ould be yesterday, we reported jpmorgan will pay 2 billion in fines associated with ernie made off and a ponzi scheme. Willepartment of justice not try to prosecute any individual executives at jpmorgan. That is a positive. I have spoken to a number of people on the street. What is gore down the street . They will not go after any individuals with jpmorgan. There is not anyone to go after any more than there would be someone from the regulators. Morgan was banker. Bankame way i use peoples for my checking account. The question is, why is the department of justice going after jpmorgan and no one else . Because they can. Opinion says, i want to take a pound of flesh and i will get it from jpmorgan. At school drop off yesterday she is not getting fined 2 billion right now. Jpmorgan is. Ago, 23 ofrs americans saw the made off case as isolated. Instead, a majority, more than six in 10, saw this as common among Financial Advisers and institutions. That shows the extent the public feels toward Financial Institutions. Many americans see that case as an example of unfair and improper activity in financial. Which is why going after jpmorgan is political. One would say, why did jpmorgan not notice. In the same breath, why did his son not notice or his wife or the internal accounts not with sayingruggle only jpmorgan shouldve known. It is not just about made off or jpmorgan. It lingers from the financial crisis we just emerged from. Six in 10 americans do not think they Financial Institutions have yet taken adequate steps to prevent another meltdown and there is broad concern. It is like what you said with the airlines. Interact her lap with banks in a way they do not with other companies. We also have a bailout of the banks they interact with. Later, all ther Bank Executives are making millions of dollars. Makes as much but he does not get criticized for it. What you just said is a really good point. There is a personal interaction with your bank. In a way that is unique. With ge, youre not an trusting the company with your life ofings or intimate details how you spend your money. You are with your bank. Lie is nobody matt at fannie and freddie e it is too complex. People do not understand. You have experience with a bank. You go to a bank. You transact with a bank and you get unhappy with bank fees and then you look in the paper and see how your bank is pleading guilty to this and that and how it seems to have contributed to. He subprime situation citibank would not let me use the bathroom there recently because i am not a citibank user. I asked if i could use their bathroom and they said no. You want the city prosecuted to the full extent of the law. When we come back, well talk a lot more about populist opinion and what they think about president obama right now. It iss his popularity . Not feeling great. We will ask all about it. We will be back. Welcome back. You are looking at a live shot of our nations capital. A series of economic numbers have contributed to the growing consensus the u. S. Economy is on track for a very big 2014. In worst of the five years the office. I want to bring in our own white house correspondent. What is with the disconnect . Economyet is up in the is recovering. These two things going together. The incumbents should be doing well, too. Gdp had a good number at the end of the year. Obamass approval numbers have been at the lowest they have ever been. We took a look at the current approval number and compared it to the dow, up 27 in 2013, cruising past extent thousand 500. They totally diverge between his approval number and the dow. Maybe not the best engage right there. There is a major difference. We took a look at whether people in the country is on the right or wrong track compared to the consumer comfort index. Same type of issue. Think thericans country is on the wrong track. Consumer comfort index is at its highest level in six years. It is very frustrating for the Obama Administration and democrats all over washington as they try to figure out how to connect what is going on with the numbers and what is going on with policy. Aboutcan talk president ial approval, but what actually generates those opinions . What are people really responding to . There is a sense of improving our economy will reflect back on the president and that is badly misguided. It is not the case. There is only a weak correlation between Economic Sentiment and approval. Up when the economy is tanking. In a bad economy, it is essentially impossible for a president to be popular. All a good economy does is create the possibility that the president can then work with policy and Public Attitudes and gain and hold popularity. The economy, not necessarily. The notion of, how are we feeling, are we safe . All of these other issues. That part of the Approval Rating . On we talk about the economy, we are not merely talking about the essence he and the doubt area the outlook asks are three things from government at the end of the day. Security, and the opportunity for prosperity. Not that promise, but the opportunity. Lives, that isns still lacking even with the approval. We have got a chart that may show that wealth. Income inequality in the united states. Put together by two academics who have studied this for quite some time. Sinceically shows not 1917 have we seen the top 10 do rest. L compared with the everybody at the top and is doing very well. Most of the rest of american do not feel like that. It is somewhat exaggerated. Everyone talked about how well the market did. Investors benefited from it. Coffee shops in capitol hill who said, they have got no business for two least. There is no correlation between the stock market and the way people feel about the economy. Two factors, income disparity and wealth disparity. The top one percent of americans 22. 5 of thear had income. Another way to look at it is the richest 20 of u. S. Families own 89 of all wealth in the country. Those are people more likely to be invested in the stock markets and doing well and to be feeling better about it. The vast majority of americans, if a own stocks, do so passively and indirectly and will check it in 20 years. Whether the market is up or down in a given moment is less germane to them than the Employment Situation and income situation, both of which are not vastgood at all area the majority of americans in this country do not have a college degree. If you do not have a college degree, your real income has declined. By how much . 20 . Phil, is the president getting any feet for the washington gridlock . Some have said there are no diplomats left. Out how ton figured get d. C. To work together. The president has not done that and is that affecting his Approval Rating . It is. Gary made a great point that the economic numbers could look great but that only gives you a base. You still have to do something with it. Approvalok at the ratings in congress and the white house and they look at all of the issues and problems and fights they have had. That will never contribute to a positive move. If it does not look like you are doing any ng and if unemployment is still at seven percent, you have income inequality issues and are still fighting for emergency Unemployment Benefits, there is no way the numbers will intoform your ministration looking better. Question president , this is his big issue for 2014. What does the white house the as a wedge where he can raise his popularity and get something done . They feel good about this issue. They feel this is their big picture issue. Minimum wage, some of the recent polling, people like the idea of increasing the minimum wage. Push tohe they will get early state of the union shortly thereafter. The issue theyis can really grab onto frustration americans might be feeling, the frustration that leads to poor poll numbers and help boost them throughout the year, especially if republicans continue to oppose it. An amazing statistic, and maybe you can offer some of your own stats on this. In 35 states in the u. S. , unemployment that if its exceed federal minimum wage on an annualized basis. It is interesting. It is easy to support raising the minimum wage. Why not. We did a poll question in which we did pros and cons. Some people say it will help low income families get by. Others say it will reduce jobs by forcing businesses to cut amp limit. We still find two thirds of americans in support of raising the minimum wage. There is broad support for it and it is potentially a political plus for the president and so is the fact americans by a 20 point margin see a place for the government to address the wealth gap in this country. There is broad concern about it. There is fundamental disconnect right now between the desire for the opportunity for prosperity we discussed and their offense. This speaks to a not that i read this morning in the new as farmes talking about as millennials or young people, aturned from a l beam lima bean economy to an end edamami at a mommy economy. I want it is not what other people want. They want to be in a lobby even if it is dimly lit. I want to experience something. They say the basic rule of happiness is to not buy things. By experiences. Do you see that shift . [laughter] me to say whator stories stood out to you. So hard for me not to say elliott in jamaica. Would you back this up that people want experiences right now . , to the extent people want experiences, they want choices. They want the opportunity to have a job they can count on and have growing in, and then to have the scratch and to do things with it. To takeenough income care of your friends and family and yourself as you wish. We will also talk about blackberry positive turnaround strategy. Is it worth saving . You are watching in the loop yuriko in the loop. Our guest host is our go to for Public Opinion polling. We have got to get you caught up on where the market trading is now. Futures are up. As is the first time this year we are looking up. Of can see just shy of half one percent. Almost half of one percent on futures. That goes over the course of the day. Retail stocks have been a big story this year. Take a look at the retailing index up almost 40 versus the s p 500. People have been feeling better about the economy. The one man who can put numbers deservedly on how much better they are feeling is gary, president of languor research. You are the mastermind behind something called bloomberg comfort index. Tell the viewers what that means aow we are doing. Weekly survey of Public Attitudes about economic conditions. The do you think about condition of National Economy, your personal finances, and spending money on things you do not need. We have been doing this every so weor the last 28 years can track over time and see where Public Confidence in the economy is. But sureter than bad not good. Consumer sentiment is crawling out of the steepest downturn of the Great Recession and is still doing so. 2013 was the best year we have but for Consumer Sentiment still far below the prerecession level we saw for the very long time before then. People are feeling better about the economy but not good about it. The single correlated consumer sense. The job market is essential and real income is essential. Both continue to struggle. Are they down or up . Compared to 2007. Price is interesting. Is 28. W, it we are still way off prerecession levels. Challenge is persuading people the National Economy is moving forward and improving. That is one of three measures that is the farthest off where it needs to be. Stockoblem is while the market is better, that makes the broader economy a hard sell because of employment. Should we be persuading people the economy is better . Take 2005 and 2006 when we were towing a melody americans you should own a house. You should go to the mall and shop. Be here anduld not maybe people should not be so confident. Maybe we are in a better place from a mindset than we were in 2005 saying, i am a bartender with four remits but i should buy a house in san diego. Current public Economic Sentiment is probably where it should be. It reflects the experience americans are having about the economy. Why is Consumer Sentiment still struggling since the stock market is doing so well . Stocknot merely about the market. Sentiment is far better among people 100,000 and more income. The key question is how useful is this information telling us what will happen. When asked about Consumer Sentiment index, we watch what people do and not what they say. Mrs. Harford highfrequency data. U. S. Headlines about this that the other thing. How much Predictive Power does this have . Good Research Shows there are strong productive capabilities of Consumer Sentiment index in terms of predicting things like movements in the stock market and fundamental Economic Indicators and real per capita income. It does work in a predictive model. Models are complex. You do not want to use a single indicator. Data do not always march in lockstep. The stock market highly correlates with Consumer Sentiment but so does unemployment and wages and housing and other indicators. They do not always move together in the same direction. Longterm, you will get a lot of correlations. The market is up and consumer nearly asis not up strongly as it could be. That is because we have other more difficult indicators people are still struggling with that are much more personal. I want to break in for a second. We have interesting breaking news news on the economy. The trade deficit for the month 34. 3vember shrinks to billion dollars. This is significant. It was expected to be 40 billion. The gdp will probably be much higher than people had earlier forecast. It is all because of oil. We are importing less of it. It will cap is the lowest since may 2009. Exports were up almost one percent and imports were up as sign ofso a strengthening the economy. The fact we are becoming more self reliant on oil. This is the whole manufacturing renaissance. How many people come on the show talking about the fact that we have got oil and can produce stuff more cheaply because of it. Oil and natural gas, with the cold weather. A little bit off. We need to take a break. Before that, i need to bring us to aim a moment. Night,ng event last things got awkward. The transformers director sup