Senate. It is right now too close to call. Here is republican senator rand paul. We know this election will send a clearcut message with the republican way and the way we will create jobs in this country. Expensivele, the most Midterm Election in history. The money has been rolling in. 3. 7 billion. You can watch for coverage of tonights Election Results. We will kickoff at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time with a special onehour of with all due respect. Alibaba down 1 in free market trading. Despite beating estimates in its first Earnings Report as a public company. Increased shopping in china has led to more spending by advertisers. Before today, alibabas shares had risen 50 since september. Investigating since its foreign currency dealing. Faces inquiries from regulators in the u. K. And elsewhere. Jpmorgan will set aside another 1. 3 billion to handle possible losses in the case. The group the incredibly shrinking budget deficit. 483 billion at the end of september. That is 2. 8 of gdp, the lowest it has been as 2008 at its peak years ago. Up more than 10 of gdp. The deficit will get smaller willyear, and then it begin to expand again in 2016, the in time for president ial election. We have not seen oil this low in three years. Tradedxas intermediate below 76 at one point today. That is before saudi arabia cut the price it charges u. S. Customers. Only oh is down 20 this year. Maybe the decline in oil the economy isu not recovering, as all the bullish analyst think. Collects back to the top corporate story this morning, alibaba out with better than estimated results. They came out and everything here looking at the numbers uniqueves provides research. Paul, your big take on alibaba . A 50 gain in your ipo isis. That is what we have got here. Slightly better than expectations. The growth in total transaction. The mobile business was of thousand percent in revenue. A key metric we see. Consumers in a lot of transactions are going over the mobile devices. Big Internet Companies have to be there and alibaba shows good numbers there. Click selective a they position alibaba four, paul . China inlly capture terms of ecommerce. Investors feel very comfortable about that. A tremendously long runway. And manufacturing economy shifts to a consumer economy. Less clear is outside of china. Theyre making some investments and set up an investment shop in Silicon Valley to take a look at technologies taking shape here. Question is how much capital to they want to invest in markets outside of the u. S. That will challenge them over the next several quarters. In china, where they know where the market and their growth is. Were there any parts of the on Profit Margins . Question to the margins over the. Ast quarter Profit Margins are well above their peers in the marketplace such as amazon and ebay. They are trading down simply companiesike a lot of trying to tackle a fast growing market, theyre making sure they have for longterm growth opportunities. Investors by and large will be accepting of eroding Profit Margins. Quarter afterhat quarter and year after year on amazon. Thank you so much, paul sweeney of liver television. The topic of the day for everyone. Mitch mcconnell is the candidate with the most riding. If he can win his own race for reelection. The hometown of louisville, kentucky, with the latest. How is the Mcconnell Team feeling . They are feeling confident. They think this location will be a victory party. The Senate Majority leader had something still needs to fall into place for him. Republicans need a net team of 16 in the republican senate. A spirited democratic challenge for him, trying to make the case that his years of experience will be a liability. Crisscrossing the state, below 20 million at every stop. Here he is speaking yesterday in louisville. Victory is in the air and we will bring it home tomorrow night. After six years of borrowing and spending and taxing and regulations, these need to be stopped and it starts tomorrow night. They are feeling confident. The most recent polls have mcconnell at an advantage. What does grimes say . What is her Closing Argument . The same, that he is the guardian of gridlock in that mcconnell is the reason for dysfunction in these eight. She has challenged the central notion that that promotion would be a net plus. Has not left this state better off here at kentuckians are ready for someone who will fight for them, not someone fought but and paid for by the millionaires and billionaires. An intense campaign and a lot of money in the campaign. Probably 60 million, one of the most expensive in the country. Trouble andet into has and she had a hard time recovering from her refusal to say whether she would vote for obama again . Central touch point in the campaign. The attorney general jack conway does not believe that was really an issue. It will come down to these two candidates. There needs to be a new generation of leadership here. You will notice is a tight race. Election results, we will kick things off at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time and our election all nighter through midnight. Of coffee,eed a lot i think. Results, ihe want to bring in mark. I also want to bring in my very special guest host this hour. A wellknown democrat on wall street and a fundraiser for the democrats. What did the results mean for the market . Youre looking at what is traditionally the best quarter for stocks. About twice the average gain. On top ofe midterms it, and the average gain is 8 . The firstin of 8 in quarter. Those are the strongest the problem is, not many data points to back it up. , you areright there only working 25 did it twice. Every time you throw another variable, youre looking at small data points. That says just that said, midterms generally. If you are able, you might be resting comfortably. If we see a gop controlled congress, and a democratic in fact that will be good for the market, because it means there will be no good Game Changing measures in the past. Us to make sure we are have we have no game changers. We have had that essentially for the last two years. If we continue with a congress divided, the Republican House democratic senate, relatively little happens in washington over the next two years. The thing we do not know is what happens when we have a democrat or Republican House and senate and causes the republicans to take a little more responsibility for helping to. Ake it happen a bullish scenario for markets and the economy. I think the economy is what will ultimately jive the markets over the next couple years here compromise things on Corporate Tax, tax reform, immigration reform, energy policy, trade policy. Those are the things democrats and republicans in the majority, the two of them together, seem to be willing to support. Those are relatively positive for the market. Impasse on certain areas of the market. Immigration on technology, Corporate Tax reform on the energy sector. What is going to be the biggest impact . The question on everyones mind is when the fed will raise interest rates. That is independent of politics. Historic and unprecedented that ishave seen, basically a thing on the back of investors minds. So far for this quarter, it is look pretty good. Economic data Going Forward looks good. Three and a half percent growth in the First Quarter. And look at our budget deficit, the smallest in six years. That should keep rates slow. It appears to be steady as she goes. There is always something to worry about. More of theo be same that we have seen. Thank you so much. Staying with me throughout the hour as my guest host. Theng up, what is on agenda . We will talk with the former senate leader. Plus, ebola throws a scare into the travel industry. We will here exclusively from the ceo of carnival foods. I want to bring back my special guest host this hour, ralph schlosstein. Economist at hymans research and trading firm beefedup Evercore PartnersEquity Research area and also the Capital Market business and hopes to attract. Great to see you and it is good to have you back on the story. You were with us when you first announced the acquisition. You are close on the transaction. Been thehat has impact . . Support thing is it allows us to serve our clients on all the issues they consider strategic, m a, their strategy, and equities. Utah to any seo and that he does think they are most concerned about are their strategy and the m a transactions, and their stock. We are in a position where we can be highly relevant to our clients on both issues. We are quite excited about this. You are able to retain the people at isi . We kept all but one analyst said we want to keep. And we are still working on him. All of the distribution sales and trading people as well. We are in a strong position. The size ofation all the large firms, and our intellectual content, and than all ofstronger them. Since we announced the deal, and Institutional Investor came out with their annual research isi alone, without our analysts, moved from number 10 to number five, the first time an independent firm has been in the top five since doj with their in 2000. Talk to me about the environment. I know october has been a slow month. 232 billion worth of deals. A little less than what we have seen on average through the years. Pacific, elliott dropping their bid for tmobile. No dealeen kind of a for october. What is going on . We have to step back and look at the bigger picture. Volume ofk at activity this year, the dollar volume of activity year to date versus last year is up a little bit over 50 . Is thatresting thing the number of transactions is up low single digits, to, 3 . Volume has been largely 5 billion. Deals last year versus this year, the increase is exact the same as the increase in total volume. It is all in big deals. The environment is good. Laintiff it i think that is true of most if not all of our competitors. Do you think it had a dampening effect . On a handful of transactions, some of which were announced and some of which were going to be. Think the administration accomplished what it was hoping to accomplish. You have not heard any out via of republicans or democrats in the senate that would suggest there is a broadcast of and census. A couple of german luxury carmakers are out in front. You are watching in the loop live on Bloomberg Television. Good morning. A look at our top company news. Bmw Beat Estimates boosted by strong sales of its s five suv. The company reiterated its. Orecast the automaker fails to match its pace of sales growth. Softbank cut its fullyear profit forecast by 10 . The wireless carrier blamed widening losses thats it, which it acquired last year. In announced yesterday it was for theabout 2000 jobs 11th straight quarter. Taylor swift sold her music to spotify. The streaming service as being a part of declining album sales area it also put together a playlist called what to play while taylor swift is way. On track to be the biggest album sales since 2002. 26 minutes past the hour. Bloomberg television is on the market. Equity futures slightly lower. Investors, the public, washington lawmakers, washington insiders and outsiders, were all watching what will happen at the polls. You can see there is a little hesitancy of turnout. We are on the markets again in 30 minutes. The Midterm Elections are finally here and the other looking good for look and. It is not clear whether they will capture enough seats to take control of the senate veered we have got a roundtable now. I am joined by republican strategist ron christie who worked on detainees staff and is a staff assistant to president george w. Bush. Hostwith me is my guest for the hour, the president and ceo of of the core and a prominent democrat on wall street. I will toss it out to you. How confident do you feel . Pretty confident. Republicans have a lot to be confident about. I think the democrats have stalled. The key races a lot of folks are looking at, republicans seem to be gaining momentum rather than losing it. Democrats, is there able to stumble across the finish line and hold onto the senate, that would be a big win for them. It seems unlikely they will do well tonight. It almost seems this is the election democrats could have one. If you look at the numbers, the stock market has gone up. Adding 200,000 jobs. The budget deficit shrunk to its lowest level in six years. Why could the democrats not get any momentum from that . Questar two things going on. First of all, it is not a countrywide election in the senate. It is 36 individual races. Aese races happen to set up little bit better for republicans than democrats. There are more red state races this year and they are particularly a high number of races where there were formally democrats in red states. Those would be hard for the democrats to keep. In 2016. Ally switches a stiff breeze in the face regardless of the economy. The second thing is, the democratic party, notwithstanding all the good things you just outlined that have happened in the economy, do not seem to be benefiting as much as i would say they should. Yes. If you look at the recent polls out, and we have got one in particular, an abc news poll that shows 46 of americans believe that the president actually understands their plight. Americans 54 of think the president is completely out of touch with the american public. That is right. If you look at some statistics you were just mentioning a few moments ago, that this patient rate is 2. 7 . A lot of people who want to find a job cannot find one. Prices aregnize the going up and they do not feel as confident with the economy image not feel democrats have done as good a job and i think that is what these goals are. I do not agree with that. Electorate. The problem run to strive is very real. We had a recovery that has been quite strong inequity values and the markets. A recovery has in quite strong in housing values, the broad not touched populace to the extent a recovery of this scale normally would. Of people a number who are underemployed, working parttime or jobs below their skill level, and number two, that for the lower paid jobs in our society, they have not benefited. Is in the president s job to close that gap . Some of those things are not easy to do. Effective in my view our broader globalization issues, the importance of technology in the work list, and the widening gap in the compensation for highly skilled versus less skilled label labor. The president has tried to have some policies to assist that entity is not seem to be a lot of resonance for that in the congress. Here is where we agree. If you look in the present processes Approval Rating after the election, 54 . Make sure thewill middleclass trying to get ahead have an opportunity and those were not middleclass, get a city. Approval ratings are in the 40s is the middleclass voters and those underemployed do not feel in this environment, they have been able some a democrats are in trouble is that republicans have tied the democratic candidate to the president eric what race are you most interested in . What is the one you are really watching . Im looking at iowa. I am looking at what harry reid said the other day, and i think it is right. If republicans have a good night tonight and we pick up iowa, that is very well. That is what im looking at. I agree with that in terms of an interesting race to watch. You have got to like georgia. He does really attractive a really terrific candidate going in a very tough but changing state from a democratic perspective. It is also interesting because i think there is a reasonable probability it will not be decided tonight. Right. Midnight, will we even know the final results . Are we talking about a runoff . I think a runoff. Georgia, you have to get 60 of the vote to win out right. I do not see either republicans. R them getting that mark we are also likely to have a runoff in louisiana, a state where the current senator is in a battle with her public and opponent. Louisiana and georgia will keep us up later tonight and even into next month. Will thosetion is, two runoffs, which we both believe are highly likely, will they determine the outcome . All right. Thank you so much. Ron and ross staying with me. Watch Bloomberg Television for coverage of tonights Election Results. We will kick things off with a special onehour of all due respect. Then our extended coverage of the results starts at 7 00. Mark leading our election all nighter at midnight. But likely just said, lee two runoff elections to watch way into the morning. Breaking news on trade downs. The deficit actually expanding slightly in the month of september. Julie hyman has more. 7. 6 , to be a exact. It is higher than economists predicted. August had been in the lowest level in seven months. Deftly not showing improvement there. Also, the deficit at a fourmonth high. The most ining by february. This reflects a couple of things. Demand from europe, latin america, and japan among them. And with the declining price in oil, that affects the numbers. Imports steady. In thethe weak spots report, Michael Mckee pointing out to me, the x word of civilian airliners by boeing. That could be an area to watch. You. Ank coming off, alibaba out with better than estimated earnings. We will dive into the numbers with one of the companys founders. Plus, the u. S. Budget deficit lower levels since 2008. Stay in the loop. 483 billion, the size of the. Udget deficit the sharpest turnaround in the government fiscal position in almost five decades. The budget deficit makes up 2. 8 of gdp, the lowest level since 2008. More than 10 of gdp, only five years ago. It is supposed to go lower next year, but there is growing will be tired of austerity measures here and we will take the cap off spending and start to spend more. For more, i want to bring in the beam debt bloomberg few columnists, the ceo and President Office of management and budget under obama, now chairman at citigroup. Also still with us is ralph , the ceo of ever corporate you have written so many art those about the incredible shrinking budget deficit and no one is talking about it. It is not a bestseller in the election. Yesterday