Are you conservative enough for republicans . Many gop voters have their doubts about jeb bush. We put together a focus group in New Hampshire. It is hightech. A luxury watchmaker is joining forces with Silicon Valley. Welcome to Market Makers. Our stephanie ruhle. And i am bill cohen in for Erik Schatzker. It is march madness. Stephanie it is and we will discuss it over the next couple of hours along with bills beard. We have some breaking economic news. The leading Economic Indicator scarlet fu is in the newsroom. Our viewers want to not hear about bills beard so much. Scarlet Business Outlook survey is a disappointing read. The index came in at five which indicates a drop from the previous month of 5. 2. This is an unexpected decline. Economists were expecting an increase to seven. The second data point is leading index. It has seen a sharp deceleration over the last half year from 1 in july 2. 2 in january. We have stayed at that. 2 . In terms of effect on the financial markets, u. S. Stocks are still lower at least for the snp in the doubt the s p and the dow. 1. 9312 in the dollar is at the best levels of the session but it took a big hit yesterday following the fomc announcement. Stephanie thank you so much. Now it is time for the bulletin. The top business stories of the morning. There is one more sign that the labor market is remaining strong. Last week, fewer than 300,000 americans filed firsttime claims for. The numbers show that employers are hanging on to those workers. Apple is making its official debut in the Dow Jones Industrial average today. The most valuable company in the world is replacing at t. Apple have been kept out because its stock prices were too high and the index is pricew eighted. Activist investor and Lehigh University alumni Barry Rosenstein is selling off a big chunk of his hedge fund. It will by 20 of jana. Jana manages 11 million and has been involved in several wellknown activist campaigns including safeway, petsmart and hertz. The bank promises to keep Interest Rates at record lows in switzerland. It was a big blow to the companys exporter and Thomas Jordan told bloomberg that the markets need time to adjust. Im convinced the markets will realize the swiss franc is overvalued and that is not really attractive at the moment. Stephanie we couldnt afford coffee when we were in davos. A warned the swiss economy may contract up to two quarters. The death toll is climbing in the attack at a museum in tunisia. Authorities say 23 people died when gunmen stormed the Tunisian Parliament and fled to the museum. Most of the dead were foreign tourists. No one has claimed responsibility. Tunisia was the birthplace of the arab spring uprising but it escaped most of that turmoil that other countries saw. Michelle obama is traveling in japan and reacting to the attack. On behalf of myself and my husband come i want to join in with the others to express our condolences over the horrific events yesterday in tunisia. Our hearts go out to the loved ones of those who were lost in japan and around the world. Stephanie at least three of the victims are japanese. Two of the attackers were killed. Just a few moments ago, Authorities Say four people have been arrested and five others detained. We have to turn to the fed. Janet yellen yesterday signaled an Interest Rate hike could be on the horizon but that it could be years before rates completely normalized. Let us look at what all this means with roxanne martino. Welcome. How much do you think the comments affect your business . Roxanne our managers have to have a view of where the Interest Rates are going. Long before the statements yesterday, they said they felt the rates would go up in the latter half of the year and perhaps even next year. Before those comments, there were already saying it was not going to be imminent at all. When rates do go up, it is better for hedge funds. I know that is controversial for some people dont think that. I like to see dispersion of equity pricing. A lot of winners and losers. We have seen the dispersion in energy being a real positive for our Long Short Energy managers with oil. Managers can find a winners and losers. Certainly health care over the last two years. A lot of winners and losers again. I think with managers of businesses like corporate boards and Corporate Management looking at Interest Rates going up in the future we all agree it will happen, they are saying we have a lot of cash on our Balance Sheets. If we will do something or by something or merge, let us do it now before the rates go up. We see a lot more activism. Bill i think what you are saying is you like volatility and action. Stephanie is not why you pay two and 20 . Bill if you can make people money based on trading volatility and this action that is where you guys are focused. I assume comments from janet yellen yesterday add to the volatility and make the markets going up and down. Roxanne we like dispersion in general. A lot of activity is great. Bill this version is the new word for volatility. Roxanne the m a environment has been very good. Activism. Boards realize and Corporate Management that they have to worry about shareholder value. Also, the environment with Interest Rates on the rise Going Forward is creating a lot of activity. Stephanie what have january and february been like for you . People said there was no volatility in the market. Now we have volatility so what does performance look like . Roxanne february was a great month. A fabulous month. A lot of it is what is happening in some of the areas. The change in oil pricing some people were predicting a rise in oil with the demand we were seeing from emerging markets. Look what happened. It came out of left field and it was completely surprised given completely supply driven. There will be a lot of winners and losers Going Forward. In the future, i think what we will see is there will have to be a lot of companies in energy that will have to restructure. We have had a long. Of thats we have had a long time without distressed activity and we are starting to see some of this. Companies will have to restructure their Balance Sheet and reorganize. That will be a boom to managers. Stephanie what is in your special sauce . People said not only do i not want to pay two and 20 but i do not want to pay anything on top of that. How you make your business flourish over the last five years . Roxanne there is a lot of activity in specialized areas. A lot of the growth in the Hedge Fund Industry has gone to bigger and more wellestablished managers. That has left a supply and demand imbalance on smaller managers that are coming out which is an advantage for People Like Us institutional allocators that can negotiate preferred economics. We can negotiate capacity. We can give those managers the capital they need to start. Stephanie is that because of the typical endowment out there will not bet on emerging managers anymore because they say no one ever gets fired for investing in millennium and they are no longer betting on the small upstarts . Roxanne i think you really hit the nail on the head. It is also consultants. It is a lot easier to place large institutional pools of capital with large institutional managers. The advantage we have on this supply and demand imbalance with the smaller managers really benefits our investors. In a way, we can take a percentage of the profits that they have on all the capital they manage overtime when we negotiate these deals and then pass it on to the investors. It is almost a synthetic out for that we are adding to portfolios. Bill how is janet yellen going to wind down the Interest Rate problem . How will hedge funds deal with this . Even the mere mention of being impatient set the markets reeling. It is an addiction. Roxanne everyone expects it to unwind pretty slowly and gradually. I dont think anyone wants shocks to the system. We saw that in 1994 in february where there was a shock. I think people learn from that even though it is kind of ancient history. It will be Done Gradually so people can digest it and predict it coming forward. Bill we shall see. This is one of the big issues of our time in the markets. Stephanie we have to leave it there, but thank you. She is the ceo of aurora investments, roxanne martino. When we return, Republican Voters weigh in and what do they think of electing a third member of the bush family for president . Bloomberg Politics Team went to New Hampshire to find out. When luxury meets Silicon Valley and the world of highpriced watches will never be the same. Maybe it will. Maybe it is just a fad. Stephanie welcome back to Market Makers. Jeb bush may be raising buckets of money, but he is still facing an uphill fight for the 2016 republican nomination. Many of his views are out of step with his party voters to the Bloomberg PoliticsSuperstar Team decided to talk to real human beings. And focus group made up of 10 likely Republican Voters in the state of New Hampshire. Here are 10 of them with Bloomberg Politics managing editor mark. I dont need to keep voting for bush over and over again or a clinton over and over again. When he some fresh faces. The common core issue i am a teacher. I understand where you are on immigration and things like that. That is not someone i would vote for. I think he has no chance at all. Who would here would vote for George Bush Jeb bush . I am just not a fan. I dont think the bush family is bad but i would not vote for him unless he was the only choice. That is a ringing endorsement. I dont like him. After his father and brother, i dont think he has a chance. Anyone thinks he has a good chance . Anyone think he is the front runner . Probably not. Stephanie there you go. Marcusk is here with more. This kind of slides in the face of pundits who said jeb bush is the man to me and he is the guy. It was a no acrosstheboard. Mark i have been going around saying i think he is a strong front runner. It is a focus group so it is not scientific but these are people who will likely participate in the primary. They were down on him and not just because of his views on immigration and common core and not just because he is a push but because they dont think he can win. Stephanie who do they think can win . Mark they think someone from outside washington will win. They are more interested in someone they think they can agree with that a winner. Elect scott walker and carly free arena and rand paul. They like them much more than jeb bush. When i asked if he was a front runner, they left laughed. These republicans have pressed them on it and said he want someone who can win a general election . Most of them basically said we want someone who is conservative and we agree with and let us hope they can win. Stephanie but are they realistic because as you noted if you can get past the gop, you cannot win in a general election. To they not see what the whole picture looks like and they havent won an election a couple of times . Mark i asked them what they want someone they can agree with. There are two things you can say about what happened in that room. Jeb bush says when people know him, they will like him better. The other is a lot of voters want a winner. Jeb bush will be able to make a case that he can win a general election. These voters were not interested in that. Publ george bush one the second time around. Stephanie i want to turn to Hillary Clinton for a moment. We have some sound i want you to comment on. Let us think about some of the negative things about Hillary Clinton. What do you like least about her . The email thing. Transparency issues. It was not handled very well and that plays into your ability to make decisions in a big office. I feel as though you have to be aware of how things appear to the public. Who went through her emails . I think it would have been smarter to use a thirdparty to sort through. Seems just like a lack of judgment to do that. You being the one deciding what email you will delete if anything, she should have released everything and a third party can decide what is relevant. Stephanie people clearly felt unsettled about Hillary Clinton and transparency and the email issue. Via feel like they were still going to vote for her . Mark almost everyone in the room. One of the greatest condemnations of her came from the people in the room who most support her. A lot of her supporters say no one is paying attention and voters dont care. Even her supporters raised substantive concerns. They were troubled by what she did. The republicans are looking for someone a agree with, but these people want a winner. This inner is no one else in the party that can raise the money and take on the republicans to keep the white house. Stephanie seems like they have a house in order much more than the republicans. Mark much more. A lot of people in the room love her. Does she have the personality want a president and some of them said no but that is not her strength. They said president obamas weakness was he did not know how to get things done. They love the fact that she has washington experience and can get there and get things done. The Republican Group does not want washington experience. They want an outsider to go in and change things. Republicans say an outsider can change things but the democrats a only someone who is an insider can change things. Stephanie may be an outsider can change things but an outsider cannot get elected. Are they not thinking about that . Mark pullup and said scott walker and rand paul. Republicans said scott walker and rand paul. If you can work on issues with democrats that you believe are good issues, then byebye. Stephanie thank you so much. Bloomberg politics Mark Halperin and there will be much more on the New Hampshire focus group coming up tonight at 5 00 p. M. Eastern. Market makers will be back in a moment. Stay here. Stephanie coming up, one lawyer says the real market madness is that players dont get paid. This guy is suing the ncaa. We will be asking the ceo of a luxury watchmaker what impact the strong greenback is having on his business. Stay here. You are watching bloomberg tv. Live from bloomberg headquarters in new york this is Market Makers with Erik Schatzker stephanie ruhle. Stephanie welcome to Market Makers. Bill dont mention duke losing. Stephanie dont mention the 20 i am about to discuss. Key economic figures are out this morning and the Conference Board index of leading Economic Indicators rose 2 10 of a percent last month. Index measures the outlook for the next 36 months. The Philadelphia Fed factory index came up short of estimates. The order shipments and employment fell. The weather may have had an impact. I will say it is more than possible. The Federal Reserve opening the door to the first Interest Rate hike in almost 10 years. At the same time, the central bank indicates once it starts raising rates, it will go slowly. Policy makers including janet yellen ended their assurance that they would be raising rates. She said it doesnt mean rates will rise in june. Ellens honor fed to be very cautious. I know we have been there for so long and it feels like a fed that has an itchy trigger figure that wants to get off of it, but why risk it . It is much more safe to wait longer and make sure youre good to go when all the conditions are in place. Stephanie she says before raising rates, they want to make sure the labor market is stronger and inflation is approaching the 2 mark. Go daddy has filed for an ipo seeking a valuation of 2. 9 billion. It has been more than three years since go daddy was acquired by a group led by silver lake and kkr. Its valuation would be at a discount to other servers. Americans are not buying music the way they used to. The u. S. Music industry shrank one half of 1 last year. It has been shrinking for years. Revenue from web radio and streaming Services Like spotify sort of 29 . That can offset the sales of cds, vinyl records, and digital downloads. It is a changing of the guard here in new york city. Our famous yellow cabs are now outnumbered by uber cars. There are more than 14,000 ubers. New yorkers take 440,000 taxi rides a day. They use uber for no more than 30 south more than 30,000. Bill what is a 20 billion startup . Makes go daddy look cheap. Stephanie we have to talk about march madness. It is here along with the shortlived hope of filling out the perfect bracket. Your bracket is not going to be perfect, but guess what we did here. We brought together a group of titans to take their best shot in our bloomberg bracket. We talked to the world Top Hedge Fund members and ceos and leaders. Everyone is donating 10,000 for a charity. 36 members have joined in. Even if you are a basketball insider, it is anybodys game. Might a