Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160111 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets January 11, 2016

Stocks were going to rebound from sharp declines, but that has not quite materialized. The nasdaq is underperforming, and that has been the case for a while now. The eighth day we have seen the composite decline. Here is the nasdaq 100, down nearly 10 . Indeed, whether you are looking at the composite, which is already in correction mode, or the nasdaq 100, which is poised to enter a correction later today, we have Seen Technology lead declines during this current downtrend in the market. Look at the stocks point wise that have contributed to declines, here they are. Is todays trade. Apple, you can see, is bouncing back after some recent declines. Microsoft, amazon, facebook, and others round it out. They have declined, they have really helped drag down the nasdaq and the major averages. David the other big story today is oil. A huge story. It is astonishing, the percentage decline we have seen in oil, not just today, but over the past several weeks, after already seeing a very weak 2015. Oil down 6 today, trading just above 31 a barrel. It has been very weak and at its lowest since 2003. Sentiment on oil keeps worsening. A lot of analysts have cut their forecast today. Take a look at my terminal. Commodities price forecast. Then click on sentiment. Its pretty obvious here. Bearish,sitive, red is this is neutral green is positive, red is bearish, this is neutral. We have an uptick in bearish sentiment and decline in the bullish sentiment. Close. Fridays it doesnt even account for the selling were seeing now. David thank you very much, julie hyman at the markets desk. Lets check on the bloomberg first word news. Mark crumpton as that. Mark the Mexican Attorney Generals Office says it will probably take at least a year or two extradite a year to to the unitedhapo states. Sean penn is expressing no regrets about his secret visit to guzman. He was asked about images published in mexican news media him withar to show guzman. He said i have nothing to hide. The president of iran said cruel sanctions will still will soon end and the coming year will be one of economic revival. Pope francis is calling for bold and Creative Strategies to help contain europes migration crisis. Francis says europe has the means and the responsibility to welcome refugees without sacrificing security or culture. He deplored the distinction made refugees fleeing persecution and migrants fleeing poverty. He said both are deserving of international protection. A protest by detroit cool teachers has closed more than half the cities schools. Thousands of students were forced to stay home as the socalled sickout continued. The School District has been in turmoil, struggling with millions of debt in debt and poor morale. A true original. The legendary david bowie. Fans around the world are morning bowie, who died after an 18 month battle with cancer. Ground control to major tom, may gods love be with you. Bowie released his last album on friday, his birthday. He was 69 years old. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in 100 50 news bureaus around the world. David thanks, mark. Turning to china where the shanghai deposit composite declined again overnight. The economy is set to grow at the weakest pace since 1990, but Joseph Siegel its says things are not as bad as they appear. Stiglitz says things are not as bad as they appear. Its not cataclysmic. Its a slowdown. There is no real news. The ways reminds us is you structure market roles can either diminish them monetary diminish of the volatility or increase the volatility. What is happening here, in a sense, as a consequence of some market rules that were not as welldesigned as they could he. Ceod joining me now is the at p. R. C. Macro advisors and oliver renick, stock market reporter for bloomberg news. You. Let me start with its always difficult to paraphrase an eminent economies economist like joseph stiglitz, but do you agree with him . If i dared disagree with a nobel laureate, i will. Yields, event bond evaluations of the stock market, a real a not speak to real active electrode toured a real economic downturn. They are hurting quite badly because the slowdown in nominal gdp, slowdown in cash flow. Also, Capital Markets are not indicating lets really happening. Absence Government Support was really happening. What is really happening. The rest of the economy is starting to contract. This is not the time to focus on Capital Markets as a barometer of the economy. There is risk aversion. Government bonds are your least worst that. Date bet. You often hear its jobs, its employment thats the real Silver Lining in the chinese. Conomy is that a bright spot . Spots. E are bright the services story is real. Manufacturing is good. We expect after the spring festival holiday coming up that firms and policy makers are going to have to get to work solving the unemployment question. They raised the job creation target via million jobs this year, that has doubled by a million jobs this year. David oliver, let me turn to you. It seems like night after night, there has been some relative calm compared to what we saw last week. Oliver we came in this morning after a pretty rough week last week and a terrible start to the that things were starting to fall apart a little bit. Broadly, whether or not china is as bad as it is, or maybe not quite as good as people thought, it obviously matters a lot to stock markets in the u. S. And investors here. For whatever reason that may be, you look across the market and you see things breaking down, not just in energies and materials. If you look at the s p right now, almost 400 companies are 20 off their highs. You have small caps entering a bear market. Depending on how you want to phrase how bad china is, i think we have seen that there is not a whole lot here to support it. Would we be reacting this strongly if we had an earnings landscape in the next six months that looked great or bustling wage numbers . To ask you,ted will, about current seas. There is a spread between onshore and offshore. Currencies. There is a spread between onshore and offshore. What have we learned about how wide that has become . We have been looking at the forward spreads. Is an interesting area. Beijing has been given clearance by the imf to condense those ruless because of the that they can only be 2 . Overnightharp spike thats really reflecting the liquidity squeeze. It hasnt spread anywhere else, and maybe it wont. But the real risk is that it might reverberate into hong kong and potentially offshore. That is something to watch. David you draw great historical parallels to sterling in the 1990s. Has a relatively strong current count, the Interest Rates are going in the wrong direction. Together, the current Level Exchange rate, some would evaluation is off the best choice. The pboc seems to want to extend its Foreign Exchange to try a more gradual approach. They have done poorly in terms they mayications, but spend a few hundred billion more before they opt for devaluation. David thank you. We appreciate it. Next one in the minutes of Bloomberg Markets, jpmorgan is kicking off earnings later this week. Its expected to be the most profitable Fourth Quarter for banks since 2000 six. Whats behind the booster to the bottom line . 2006. Ce whats behind the boost to the bottom line . David welcome back, its time for the Bloomberg Business flash. El will be and able to keep operating as they challenge new york. They will be able to keep accepting bets for now. Oils bumpy ride wont be getting smoother any time soon. The price will keep falling during the First Quarter and stocks are likely to follow and enter bear market territory. Oil is trading at its lowest level in 12 years. Bowiessales for david music are surging following his death. His last album was released friday, just two days before he died from cancer. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Julie hyman has the latest on some company movers. Julie movers moving down. Lets take a look at newmont mining. Price oflong with the commodities. This move is especially notable, down 16 after a 71 percent pullback in 2015. The company has really been battered. It also gets most of its revenue from oil so it is not just suffering as metal prices decline. We are seeing record lows from some of the one time hot momentum stocks. Fitbit and go pro down today. Twitter and go pro also have seen a momentum to the downside as of late. All again at record lows today, whosethe Security Company price target was cut by analysts after cautious fourthquarter checks. Shares are down by about 8 today. Finally, some multiyear lows for a trio of stocks, all of them at least at 18 month lows as we see the pullback in shares. Again, it is part of a longer term trend. We have seen weakness in these stocks. David thank you, julie hyman at the markets desk. The biggest u. S. Banks have seized on one thing they can control, cost. Banks are preparing to report their latest earnings, starting with jpmorgan on thursday. Me now is bloombergs wall street reporter and business editor. Let me start with you. I have heard Erik Schatzker interview a lot of ceos from the big banks and the thing he hits on every time is the efficiency ratio. An environmentn where revenue is not easy to generate, they are finding it hard to grow, so they have turned to cost cutting. That is not a good thing for a lot of traders and bankers on wall street, but they have been doing a pretty good job of it in the last couple of years, and we will see that in the Fourth Quarter. Talking about layoffs . We have had tens of thousands of jobs lost. We have heard about the layoffs. The people they have they are paying last. They have been rationalizing real estate footprints. Writing smaller checks or fewer checks to the and private investors over the multibilliondollar settlements for allegedly selling ofmarkets or mortgagebacked securities. That was one thing that really pushed costs up in 20122014, and a lot of those are fading away now. This . How unexpected was it was such a high profile case, for him to essentially get off scott free. He would probably argue that he has paid for this, but it is much smaller than people expected and theres no way to see this as anything other than a huge victory for him. Ago, the sec was signaling that they wanted to thehim for life from securities industry. Others thought he could end up in jail. Basically, he has paid a fine and agreed to not manage outside 2018. Until he can basically come back as a hedge fund manager. It would be a huge comeback and a shocking one, but i never cease to be surprised. Immensehe sec was under pressure to prosecute a case like this. I think in this particular up against ame very wealthy, determine defendant who had the best lawyers money could buy. He hired david boys to help fight the sec. He was basically able to wait them out. Years, alast couple of number of Court Rulings have made it harder to prosecute traders for Insider Trading. He was able to wait for all of that to play out, and in the end, the ground has shifted under regulators feet. They found they could not pursue the case they thought they were going to write a few years ago when they started this. Its a little surprising. David has the industry changed, do you think . This has generated a lot of pr in terms of compliance and how important it is to keep track of what traders are doing. However, because the defendants have been able to fight these Court Rulings, it is almost legal to do certain types of Insider Trading now and its going to be a lot harder to prosecute those cases. A lot of hedge funds are probably directing more to other types of transactions that will be difficult to keep an eye on. David still ahead on bloomberg a megamerger. In details just ahead. David welcome back. In a huge pharma deal announced today, scheier agreed to buy xalta in athe deal worth about 32 billion dollars. Second try was the charm . . As it the cash yes, and its quite a bit of cash. 18 a share in a deal that comes out to around 12 billion if i have done my math right. Deal, son all stock really taking a lot of risk off the table with the cash. David scheier is registered in jersey, headquartered in dublin, listed in the u. K. , most of the executives are here in the u. S. That tells us all we need to know. Wakes that has been that has been the story. Companies overseas doing deals but headquartered elsewhere to get a lower tax rate. David we are talking about treatments for Rare Diseases the cost, in many cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars. In many ways the rare disease section has been immune from drug price competitiveness. Indication when the steel might close . We were talking about this weeks ago. I think they said sometime before the middle of the year. One big question is how it will tax purposes. Its still kind of an open question. Shireives at scheier x shareholders ba will not get taxed on this. Its a crazy day for news. We have had all sorts of announcements. Leadership transition. I think the ceo is going to stay on as the effective chairman. Not a huge change in the direction of the company. David thank you. More Bloomberg Markets coming up after the break. Oil, after the break. Bloomberg markets. Mcauley, Mark Crumpton has more from the news that. Mark my colleague, mark duncan, has more from the news that. Mark a group of California Public School Teachers claims fair share fees violate their rights is free speech right cover the cost market. Conservatives skeptical on the. Leader you want to sign a better mom. As a building with the north has called Hydrogen Bomb he says that it is expectation that they will advance to you is is a monitoring the Republican Debate split it is the paper endorsed. Donald credit for them, saying that he is a conflict of interest. The february debate three days before the state primary. The file Second Police officer charged in the death of freddie gray has been delayed. Officer caesar goodsons trial is set to start the start today that it is now on hold until the state Court Decides is William Porter must testify against goodson. Freddie gray guide the injured in the police and let days of riots unless. Lottery officials wednesday power you largest ever, now at one 4 billion no one matched all six numbers saturday night. One 292 million. Global news for hours day power by our 2400 journalists and 5400 journalists from around the world. David, will you be here if you win . [laughter] david to be determined. Lets take a look at some of todays biggest movers. Old you are today after posting that the august. Prices fell around 8 . Oil, thinking it. Earlier in his most of the market 2000. Joining me now to drill down to it, from the economic joining us inm, you are a lot you oil 20 wanted things off by getting cap. Collect i think that right now the markets are falling, technical settlement bearish since you had a break below the moving average back in october. Really, since then you have seen just downward drive. Horse, this is also being by the data china. I think that you seeking cioffi here for now. We really the mental data support. 35 is an case price is average is order, but you have got better what happened david you sent along some before that would happen. Reports,u sent along something widespread there. What can we tell from this . Why is this chart so important to you . The most important you look 2015 on a global the most important thing was that there were 1. 7 Million Barrels a day, or little bit above that. That was more than what was built inventories every as a rough the year. 625 to december 5 2 million extra barrels of inventory rough the year. Thats a lot an overhang fly. Thats one of the big problems here in one of the things weighing on rights. Flex with these low prices and volatility many are likely wondering if is a buying opportunity here you get one, do you think . Collect it depends on the pmi thought. Everyone wants to talk about barrels and supply, but in my in the demand by the most part of the equation right now. Pmid looking at chinese u. S. Manufacturing pmi, talk about importance of this one area flex well, this is really important to get it shows the chinese number below if the contracting chinese in 12 of the last 13 months manufacturing has been contracting month after month after month. December the going up contraction actually got worse. On top of that u. S. Manufacturing after being last in september and october contracted in november and contract and more number. The u. S. Is flirting with perception that this is radical leading indicator of what happened to the entire u. S. Economy in the manufacturing is around the of the overall economy. China manufacturing is a 31 of the gdp. China is in a manufacturing session and has been for a year. Talk about the sick 15 and number that the government publishes, but that number doesnt matter. The truth is that china is in any fact you session. The u. S. Is close to one. China received great growth, u. S. Manufacturing wrong he would not be talking about oil in the 20 fossil you are ethos. David how real of a concern is the you . Ake i have a book month about surviving economic downturn during even looking at the data and pointed towards the u. S. Session. Looking at in the production, negative yearoveryear. Retail sales, those are at the weakest levels of the great recession. Its actually weaker than any level in the 2001 recession right now. If you look at it, its below for him has been all in areas of the. These data points all show the have got real problems in the economy and this really has a leading impact on affect in the service sector. The line share of the economy will follow. Get another couple of these sub 50 indexes and you will the the what were forecast like growth is the end of the year and the contraction in 20. David where does the strong u. S. Doll

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