Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160309 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets March 9, 2016

We had a dip in the major averages, but they have since come back. The s p has in leading gains. The dow and nasdaq and that, each up by about. 5 . We have a lot of anticipation for tomorrow when we will hear from the ecb. At the bull market and go back in time. March 9 2009 as the date it was born in weve seen almost 200 appreciation in the s p 500 with some hiccups to be sure as of late. What is notable about the bull call it theople most hated bull market, it is also a long bull market compared with past once. This shows the s p 500 and here is the bull market. Here are the fund flows. 2012, we beginning of have seen outflows at a time when talks have been climbing, so theres a disbelief all the way along that the bull market would continue and yet somehow it has. Scarlet the most hated bull market. Thats the most appropriate title. Lets talk about commodities because we got a fairly bullish inventory report. Julie on the face it didnt look alleged a week over week, it dropped because it was such a large drop last week. We did see oil make it ties in the day and now up more than 4 . The chart of Energy Stocks is interesting if you look at over two days. Yesterday, its biggest oneday drop in about two weeks. Still down more than 1. 5 . News on Chesapeake Energy that the company is said to be considering the sale of some of its oklahoma assets. That caused it to extend its gains. Devon and chevron among the big gains we are seeing today. Many stocks were participating in the big drop we saw yesterday and today, a bit of a recovery with those oil prices. Scarlet julie hyman, thank you for setting the scene for us. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news with Mark Crumpton and the headlines. In u. S. Was a big night president ial politics. Bernie sanders upset Democratic Front runner Hillary Clinton the michigan primaries. Polls indicated mrs. Clinton had a doubledigit lead before election day but mrs. Clinton won in mississippi and now has more than half the delegates she needs for the democratic nomination. On the republican side, donald ,rump one in mississippi michigan and hawaii. 1237 now has 458 of the delegates he needs to become the republican nominee. Ted cruz has 359. Carly fiorina today endorsed ted cruz for president , telling a rally in miami that he is a leader and reformer willing to take on the status quo in washington. A majority of americans disapprove of Senate Republican plans to lock president obama Pass Supreme Court nominee. 55 oppose the gop strategy according to a new nbc news wall street journal poll. The white house is already vetting candidates to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia a. Republicans say that should be left to the next president. Attorney general Loretta Lynch says shes not interested in the job and has asked the white house to remove her name from consideration. Vice President Biden says if iran breaks the terms of the Nuclear Agreement with the west, we will act. The Vice President spoke today in israel after iran carried out a Ballistic Missile test for the second day in a row. The iranians launched to missiles. The official Iranian News Agency says both missiles hit targets 870 miles away. Hours before the missiles were launched, the u. S. It would investigate whether the test violated Un Security Council resolutions. Oflure to contain the spread an gay fever could mean officials have to find new ways of writing zika which is also spread by mosquitoes. The World Health Organization says traditional methods like insecticide have had little to no effect in reducing the number of cases. There are fears the same might apply to zika. Said zika is a global emergency. Global news 24 hours a day powered by our tree 400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Scarlet thank you so much. The equity bull market is celebrated seven denver street today and while the indexes have gotten off to a rough start this year, they are currently at session highs. So problem solved. The s p is coming off its longest rally in five months, so the question is, is the worst over or are investors to skittish to keep double alive question mark my guest joins me from stanford, connecticut with more. Seven years in, does the equity rally still have legs . Guest i dont want to put a damper on the birthday celebration, but lets keep in mind the alltime highs of the market was last may. The bull market is only ongoing if we dont move down from here and have the correction turn into a cyclical bear market. If that is the case, we will look back and find last may is the high and the end of the bull market. If we move up and take out the prior may highs, we will look at it as the seventh anniversary of the bull market. We are in this middle part of the equation now which means we dont officially know if it is the seventh anniversary. Longerterm, the bias is still higher but right now, we are a bit overbought. Sentiment has gone back toward optimism. See a little profit taking given how much good news is priced in. Scarlet we have seen Retail Investors are missing out. Julie had a chart showing fund flows. Whats it going to take to get the individual investor back and and what does that mean for whether we will continue to move higher or whether this will turn into a cyclical bear market . Im not sure we get the Retail Investor back to the same allee as we have in past markets. It is a very unloved bull market and im guessing the fund you showed with traditional markets, even if you showed Exchange Traded fund, there is on a cumulative basis no net new money added to u. S. Equities in mutual funds and Exchange Traded funds since before the financial crisis. We have never seen that and i think its a function of the muscle memory of not only the severity of the crisis and bear market but within 10 years of the prior crisis, specifically in tech stocks and a brutal attended bear market. To some degree, much like happened coming out of the Great Depression was you lost a generation of investors who never had the market capture their hearts and minds. That may be what we are experiencing. Scarlet one thing we are looking at are the red flags that are out there. As you look at gold prices and global stocks, they tend to move in opposition. But what you have seen recently is stocks have been moving higher along with gold prices. That doesnt quite make sense. What does this reflect . Guest we can make assumption about what has been correlated to gold either positively or inversely. The past it has been an inflation hedge or currency instability hedge. What is unique in this time is that gold has by default a negative carry. A yield butenerate theres a cost of storing it, so you are automatically in a negative situation. In contrast to most currencies historically which have a positive carry, you get a yield on a currency. Now that we are in negative Interest Rates on the comparison is more favorable, so gold takes on an attractive characteristics. As a hedge against currency instability, that may be a fundamental place. Another thing people are looking at is what happens of Companies Stop lying shares . The buybacks grind to a halt. A chart going back to 2008 show that buybacks totaled 2. 6 billion more than quantitative easing. , the stocko hsbc market had its own qe while the treasury market only had a between 2008 and 2014. Should we be more concerned about companies not buying as at the end of qe or monetary easing . Guest it has been the biggest support from the demand perspective. We have not seen it from the Retail Investor. Hedge funds that exposure hasnt been anything but in the low 50s. Has been a big support, so the question is, and i think it is a risk that if we lose that support, are we going to get it in other areas. As the Institutional Investor going to step in and will Pension Funds realized the need for return from a higher risk asset class versus the yields on the fixed income side . The ecb as we await meeting tomorrow and people are pricing in some kind of easing and the fed is expected to maintain its current strategy in march, what would be the first order affect on u. S. Equities if the ecb does go ahead with cutting its deposit rate 10 basis points . I think the expectations are already embedded in the market. Therefore you could move the needle in one direction or another if you get a surprise but something in line from the fed, which would be no move, something fairly small but in the director of easing by the ecb, i would argue its already priced in the market. Thank you so much for joining us. In the next 20 minutes of Bloomberg Markets, mario draghi set to fire another salvo in the Central Bank Battle against deflation. Will the story be different this time around . Are looking at u. S. Stock that session highs with Energy Leading the gains after the worst drop in six weeks. We will look at which specific companies are driving the rally. Wilbur ross giving the bloomberg go his mind on the gop frontrunner, donald trump. Scarlet this is Bloomberg Markets. Im scarlet fu. Its time for the bloomberg flash. Chesapeake energy considering a ine of some of its holding an oil soaked patch of shale in oklahoma known as the stack. Thats according to people familiar with the matter. The natural gas giant is unloading assets to pay off debt. U. S. Prosecutors are trying a new tactic in their investigation of volkswagen and omission test cheating. The government is using a far reaching law against bank fraud and are looking at whether volkswagen broke tax laws. They admitted to cheating on cars on whether diesel cheated in missions tests. Amazon has agreed to lease 20 boeing cargo planes airport transit Care Transport services group. They want to reduce their reliance on carriers like fedex and ups. That is your business flash update. Ecb decision,e most economists are expecting the ecb to announce new decisions and cut Interest Rates tomorrow at 7 45. The question that continues to limit his will the stimulus plan have enough firepower to reignite Economic Growth . Joining us is our Bloomberg View columnist, mark gilbert. As we can see through the different derivatives, markets are pricing in some kind of easing. The specifics keep changing as the days go by. What do they signal so far . Mark there were lots of expectations and Nothing Happened in the markets. Its almost the definition of not achieving monetary stability. Got to do something, so the expectation is you get a an in Interest Rates and get expansion of the Bond Buying Program both in volume and maybe assets. One surprise he might pull off his europe has a problem with bad debts at the banks. You can pack them up and the ecb is willing to buy them, you go a long way of freeing up the channels. The reason hes doing this is not because it is fun. It wants to generate and stimulate lending in the eurozone. If it can find a way of taking the bad loans off the banks, oft might be a good new way surprising the market and exceeding expectations. Scarlet there has been a lot of chatter around the loans. How far has the ecb been ahead of these nonperforming loans . Have negative Interest Rates, it makes it hard to generate any profit for yourself. Doing that, you hardly going to be seeking to lend to small and mediumsize enterprises, the stories that have been missing so far. You see the ecb saying weve seen the problems. We dont want to make the situation any worse. Theres also a twotier Interest Rate where investing in the impact on the bank where you have those negative rates forcing inflation back toward the 2 target. Scarlet do targeting the banks anyway get inflation going . Far off fromill its target rate if you look at the latest numbers. Only are they far off, if you look at the expectations, notfuture inflation, it is good news. Genuine feeling that it needs to do more. Use the firepower and it has less of an impact. That is why it might be the surprise he is the guy who said he would do anything to save the euro. The euro is not threatened by the clinical stock, if the economy cannot get going, the electric gets less and less keen on the euro as a project and you see that were parties are winning votes. Draghi does not want to see that political side either. Scarlet he needs all the help he can get. One analyst has posited Central Banks are targeting specific currency levels. Evidence the ecb is doing that . To stoke demand or stoke inflation . I think that is the one policy success he can point to. That has definitely helped european exports and if you do a counterfactual experiment, how the european economy be doing if the euro hadnt weekend in the dollar hadnt strengthen, you would be in a much worse place. Around theolicy world that the ecb has been one of the winners on that and it will be interesting to see draghi mentions the currency in passing that says we dont have a target rate. I think he will make an effort to talk to currency down farther. Scarlet what is the cost of doing so . If you look at euro era cyclicals that have been to keepating, it looks the euro weaker than where it has been. The biggest impact has been for savers in the eurozone. What are the consequences of moving away from zero Interest Rates is that savers are getting absolutely crushed. If i am a pension fund trying to put money away on behalf of my customer so they can retire comfortably, those negative yields are not helping me at all , so we are setting up something that is it it dangerous for the future if it cannot be on well soon. Draghi has to pull out a bazooka tomorrow morning. Scarlet thank you very much. A homebuilder falling after posting a wider loss than expected and announced it would the exiting the markets. Scarlet this is Bloomberg Markets, im scarlet fu. With go to the markets desk were julie hyman has some word about a homemaker making news. Julie the stock is going on lower in a big way, down by 12 . Even after the owner of the company said he was pleased by the start of the fiscal year. There is investor concern about liquidity for the company and that seems to have affected shares. In addition, the total revenues by 2020 will be similar to 2016 is not an that optimistic comment in the eyes of investors. The company is going to exit in minneapolis and raleigh and sans to wind down its francisco operations and as well. Were also looking at a handbag maker forecasting and earningspershare forecast matching analysts estimates. This is after Fourth Quarter comparable sales fell by less than analysts were anticipating. Gardener of all of coming out with preliminary thirdquarter earnings high above what analysts had been anticipating. Schoolpany says the thirdquarter comparable sales rising 6 on a comparable calendar basis of 4 . There have been some activist lead changes over the past couple of years and it looks like that is bearing some fruit in terms of the bottom line. And finally, a company that makes deluxe that food is doing well after coming up with earnings that beat analyst earnings. I dont have a pet. Products. R uses these people like to spend a lot of money on their pets. Scarlet lucky dogs and cats. Thank you so much. Still ahead, we will hear from veteran investor, wilbur ross, on the single most important issue on europe. Scarlet lets start with the headlines on the first word news. U. S. Special forces have captured the head of the economic state unit trying to develop chemical units, according to the associated press. As the first major success of the pentagons new policy of going after Islamic State commanders on the ground. Former republican president ial candidate Carly Fiorina says she is endorsing ted cruz. Miami,lly today in fiorina called the texas senator both a leader and reform are willing to take on the status quo in washington. Days ofornia, three global morning for betsy reagan begins today. Family and friends are gathering for a small ceremony in santa monica. Afterwards her body will be escorted to the Ronald Reagan president ial library in seamy valley. Simi valley. Fewident obama may have a more gray hairs, but physically hes in better shape than he was two years ago. The president is even five pounds lighter, 175 pounds, with a resting heartbeat of 56 beats per minute. And his cholesterol levels have falen. Fallen. However, occasionally the president still chews nicotine gum. A day news 24 hours powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Im Mark Crumpton. Scarlet, back to you. Scarlet the bull market may be celebrating its seventh anniversary, but investors are anxious about whether this can continue. On bloomberg earlier today, he addressed concerns about this date of the global state of the global market. You go around the world, theres no big engine driving the economy at 800 miles an hour. I was just in china two weeks ago, and things really are slow there. Theres no question about that. They then next order a lot of their problems because so many of the other emerging companies export to china. It really spreads around the world in a rapid way. The u. S. Is not going to grow at a rapid rate. Not. E certainly is where is the big machine to drive rapid growth . I dont see it.

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