Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160325 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets March 25, 2016

Importance. You would rule out the possibility of using Nuclear Weapons against isis . I am never going to rule anything out. Nejra it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. Nejra hello and welcome. I am nejra cehic. This is bloomberg best. Its a weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from Bloomberg Television around the world. In retrospect, this week has been dominated by tuesdays tragic terror attacks in brussels. On monday, attention was focused on Silicon Valley and a major Product Announcement from apple. Unveiling a new iphone at an event in cupertino with a smaller screen and a smaller price tag, starting at 399 for the cheapest new iphone ever. What are your big takeaways . I think its just interesting. I was making an analogy with the golden state warriors. Rather than go big or go home, the old traditional basketball adage, they found that small ball works well for them and they won a world championship. You can see apple tried the same strategy. Apple is finding ways to go small. They got to 30 Million People and that was a shocking number. 30 Million People bought an iphone 5 last year. They have dedicated users who want to use smaller phones and want to pay less for it. They are being slightly more aggressive, maybe appropriately aggressive, with a price that should be more in line with emerging markets. This is a great price point because it is going to be more attractive, but at the same time, it is not going to be at the cost of their margins. Europe wakes up to the threat of terrorism, once again in belgium, and we have to try and understand the scope of probablynderstand are coordinated attacks and how big this network will get. Tom you really wonder how they will adapt, how europe will adjust. This certainly seems like a coordinated attack. It certainly appears to be in response to the apprehension friday of the main living suspect in the paris attacks last november. The belgian government has been under continual criticism since november, in terms of its terror, antiterror campaign. Why did it take four months to apprehend Salah Abdeslam . It seems like he was here if not at least in the greater brussels area for that time. They did get him on friday. They thought they had made a major breakthrough in the terror campaign, and this seems to be a big setback that we have today with these multiple explosions. Belgium is on the highest terror alert level after three bombings in brussels today. At least 30 people are dead, 180 more than 180 are injured. Police are at a standstill as they search for more bombs. This is where many of the 31 people were killed in the two attacks that took place in brussels today. We had one attack here at the subway station, which, to put things into context for you geographically, we are right in the heart of the european union, the european commission. Im actually right now surrounded by buildings that belong to the european commission. If you think about it, this is really the first largescale terror attack, the largest terrorist attack that has taken place in this country since the second world war, and at least one of the attacks happening right in the middle of the e. U. , the european commissions headquarters. Credit suisse is accelerating its restructuring could the bank has announced cost savings of 1. 7 billion since 2016, costing an additional 2000 jobs. Credit suisse is a bank struggling to boost profits. Back in october, Credit Suisse said we have to kind of triage what we are going to tackle here and we need to improve our macro business first. Credit is doing ok, but then the Fourth Quarter came and credit fell off the cliff. That continued in the first quarter. They had losses on distressed assets. Now they are saying this is moving up the priority list. You said you were surprised. Y your illiquid positions when did you find out about them . In january. Why was this not clear before . As i said on the record, this was not clear to me and to many people inside. There needs to be a cultural change. Its completely unacceptable. There have been some consequences around that. Francine are the people trying to withhold information . Tidjane it is a very interesting question. It is linked to a cost problem. If your costs are too high and you are not taking them down, a you will lead a river in your strategy. A lot of the problems with Investment Bankers is that people try to generate revenue at all costs if i may say so. It was a highyielding book, and generating a lot of revenue. So people were reluctant to reduce it because it would expose the cost problems. Chinese premier looking to asia to be the Growth Engine of the world, calling asia the Growth Engine of the world. Steve england is at the forum and he really kept bragging on about growth, didnt he, steve . Steve the aggregate outlook of chinese leaders tends to be a little more sunny than in previous months. They are seeing signs of stability. As the point he made at the Delegates Forum in asia. Mostly it is a chinese conference, but it is intended to kind of be china upon version s version of the World Economic forum for asia. He kept on hammering the point that they are seeing stability. The quality of economic growth, according to him, is improving. He emphasized that china has enough tools to ensure stable economic growth, and he is confident that china can maintain that pace of growth, 6. 5 , over the next five years. He says, in his estimation the , fiscal deficit is not too high. He also said on the yuan, they will not devalue the yuan to boost exports. And on the property market, he says we want to avoid major fluctuations in the property market. He is aiming for steady development. Nejra coming up on bloomberg best, a closeup look at the impact of tuesdays terror attacks in brussels. Nejra welcome back to bloomberg best. I am david shea pitch. Mnejra cehic. The investigation into tuesdays terror attacks in brussels continues. Go to bloomberg. Com for the latest details and analysis. Checking the impact of the bombings on Global Markets and gathering insight from experts around the world, lets look back at the best of that coverage. Francine when we first heard about a possible explosion, futures did not do much. Then we saw a clear but shy riskoff mood. Are people now dealing with this kind of thing in their stride . Are we mispricing terror risk . It is one of the hardest risks to price. Typically the short Economic Impact tends to be quite visible. Economics always point to the fact that economies tend to survive these things. Markets dont tend to price a persistent longterm impact. However, nearterm you do see flows and price actions, such as the one we are seeing at the moment. As we look back, whether we are talking san bernardino, paris, or 9 11, the markets have taken a leg down following attacks, but we have also seen a strong rebound. We are asking, is this time different . The market that seems to be reacting most is what we will call the brexit trade. The weakening of the pound, the widening of the buddha, the sterling, too. Now you have political sides that can take advantage of this. If this happened a year ago, there is no political opposition that could take advantage of this. But now, not only do you have it in the united states, but because of brexit you have it in europe, too. They will take advantage of this, and that is why you see political trade having a bigger move than the standard playbook. How do i play a terrorist trade . Are usually or have been at least in the past two years or so pretty resilient to these terrorists. That is the right thing to do and it also turns out to be the more profitable thing to do. We should not be terrorized. The actions of a few sociopaths, it is horrible and we have a member of my team in brussels he is fine but at the same time, the reality is it does not change the overall movement of the global economy, the outlook for profits were Interest Rates, so people should not overreact to this. Borders will be strengthened initially. The topic of schengen will come up again. As a businessman that operates within the european union, how important is schengen as an agreement and as a pillar of the e. U. . Do you consider it under threat, and what does that mean for business europewide . As a european and also u. S. Media company, we operate in many European Countries. Clearly it is in our business interests that the border remains open and free trade continues. Clearly, our objective has got to be that despite everything and despite concerns about security, borders remain open and people continue to travel and trade continues to flow. Stephanie could an attack like this or in paris get those governments around europe to point fingers or to try to act more in a unified way . I very much hope to see the latter. We have seen a real weakness of europe in the last weeks and months. With regard to the euro crisis and the refugee crisis, i very much hope that this is one positive thing that will come out of what is happened in brussels, that this will lead to a more unified approach combating terrorism. I do not think this has significant implications for europes policies in the middle east, which of course is the reason why we are having so many of these problems, nor does it have an impact on a divisive u. S. President ial election in the states. You do not think it is . I do not. No, i dont. We have already had these two major paris attacks. We have had a number of major terrorist attacks in turkey. We had the german assault, and now we have brussels. I think by next week, frankly, i would be surprised in the united states, this is the kind of headline that we are still actively talking about. We are getting inured to this kind of violence in europe. God for bid we have an attack like this in the u. S. It would be very different. Certainly a number of the political candidates, trump included, are going to try to to make a little bit of hay on top of these headlines, but i do not think it will significantly affect the elections. There are statements from leaders all around the world, including from president obama in havana, a response to terrorism. What do you think government needs to do in order to defend our allies against attacks like this . I think we have to identify with what has happened to the europeans because it has happened in this city before. God for bid if it could happen again. The terrorist Group Islamic state is a threat both to the u. S. And canada as well as to all the europeans. What it means is, we have to rally around them. So judicial cooperation, Law Enforcement cooperation, and making sure that our intelligence agencies are working together, that is the best way in a situation like europe, where you have homegrown terrorists in the city of brussels, in the suburbs of paris, the best way to help europeans. Pound falling today, posting its biggest decline in major currencies, all of that on speculations that the brussels explosions will boost the ofe for brexit, the result closing more borders, curbing immigration, all of that fear potentially permeating what we might see in the june referendum. Indeed it feels like a repetition of that particular occurrence. We had the tragic events in paris that led to an increase in support for the output. If you look at the polls, we did see a swing and fever of the late in favor of the leave flow. That was reflected in a sustained selloff in the pound, against the euro. The repetition of that seems likely in the near term. Some of the negatives are already in the price, so if anything, unless we see a very significant swing in the polls, the pound downside from currency levels will not exceed what we have seen so long ago. Lots of people talking about the future of schengen and the political pressure european leaders are under. How do we see the euro trade and how thi does this tell us aboutw safe it is to put money in the euro . What we saw yesterday was the euro not performing well at all. You can explain that by saying that concerns about schengen and the e. U. Have been going on for a little while. Perhaps this brings it to a head. I think positioning explains why the euro did not perform well. If we go back to about a year ago, when the u. S. Started to perform well when we had risk off events, that confused the market at the time, but we must remember that if we go back to the start of last year, the market was very short. The euro. And i think what weve had is a big correction in positions since then. The market has recovered to more normal levels, meaning that the euro is more vulnerable. Its not quite the safe haven play was a few years ago. I think it is very difficult to say that euro is a safe haven. It was exhibiting safe haven behaviors. Really, i think that was short covering. David cameron making it clear yesterday that we should not conflate the issue of what is happening in brussels with the issue of brexit. Other people not taking that view. You look at the Financial Market reaction and that line was drawn fairly quickly. How does this story play into what happens with that debate as we work our way through the next three months . Attacks like this, how do they actually impact the story . The impact it as the market showed yesterday. The pound went down minutes after brexit. The reason is people will draw that line, whether rightly or wrongly. David cameron has been out in recent weeks saying that the e. U. , being in the e. U. Makes britain safer and stronger. The situation in brussels challenges that view. There are other parties that will draw a thick line between that and there are others that will draw in inference or raise an eyebrow. What is the mood like in the belgian government, ambassador . There has been criticism of the handling of this both of the government and the security forces. The spotlight has been on belgium since the paris terror attacks in november. It has led to the question, how is this allowed to happen . We may be, given the openness of our society, we are one of the most open countries in the world. As a matter of fact, we happened to be the most open economy in the world, and that openness normally is an asset, but sometimes it becomes difficult. When things are right in the world, you benefit from it. When things are less well, your subject to problems, as we right now face. What needs to be done on a europewide level to combat terrorism . If there is a lesson to be learned from the recent past i would say, it is exactly that the Cooperation Among European Countries has to be strengthened. Most of the countries are fully aware of that. Our Prime Minister spoke with mr. Hollande yesterday. That was one of the topics he addressed. What is the point . The point is that intelligence should not only be gathered, it should also be exchanged and beyond the exchange of information, the intelligence should be actually used by the final destinations. That is not always the case. So there is some work to be done, but i think the awareness is fully there. Nejra you are watching bloomberg best. Cehic, highlighting top company news, new developments and ongoing stories. Lastly, and insurance giant made a surprise bid to top marriotts offer for starwood hotels. Starwood shares of the Hotel Company soaring today after it accepted in improved takeover bid from marriott. Are we in the middle of a takeover battle here . Very much so. Takeover classic toke where we saw them coming with this improved offer last week. Marriott has come in to match it. Theyve gone slightly over it. I think what is interesting is the dollar has clearly been the door has clearly been left open by starwood for they come back. I think it is very likely that bang come back to the table on this one. Is there a Game Changing price . What is the ceiling here . How high can both companies go . It is a really good question. We think that marriott would have put more money on the table if they really wanted to put this knockout bid on there. Clearly by just bumping this a small amount, it suggests maybe they have some more room to go, but maybe the chinese come back in first and there is more of a bump for marriott. The chinese have shown themselves to be incredibly space. Us buyers in the they have done the Strategic Hotel deal with blackstone. I think this is going to be one that will run for a while, and i think we will see another one for sure. The First Chinese company to sign up as a major fee for partner and also has been a major theme of the football body since the corruption scandal. What is behind this move . Last year xi jinping made football a national priority. Since then, we have seen some wealthy investors from china really put money behind the sport. The chairman and founder has been aggressively investing a 20 stake. Last year with the deal with fee for, its running through until 2030, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Is it a good use of that money . He says it is very worthwhile. He says other Chinese Companies could sign up to become top fifa sponsors also. Valeant ceo Mike Peterson is stepping down after a series of controversies that culminated with the 61 drop in shares last week alone. Isknow that Mike Peterson out and bill ackman has to board seats, but there is not a new ceo yet, correct . We do not have a new ceo yet, and pearson is going to be staying in until they find one. We know that the board has asked the former cfo, Howard Schiller, to resign because they have accused him of financial after friday, which is leading them to restate some of the results. Shares in valeant rising after a second day of news that Michael Pearson will be stepping down. Hours after that news, pearson have satto upset south b sidebyside bill ackman and how they will adjust hundreds of workers in the new jersey office. What do we know about what they said . Months ago bill ackman was talking about how they were involved and interested. Bill ackman himself is sitting on this board after yeste

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