Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets 20160721

To have Going Forward. Lets get a check on the markets. Julie hyman is standing by. Have at least some of the downdraft today having to do with some of the earnings reports we have gotten. The dow falling the most of the three major averages, down one half of 1 . Transportation is a big part of the story. On pacific, the lard was the largest publicly traded railroad in north america. Shares down 3 . Profit spell and shares down 12 , and the company said Going Forward that plunging consumer demand and a strong dollar will be a consistent drag. You can look at the carload on the bloomberg. I am looking at yearoveryear decline or advances in the various types of carloads. The purple is coal. We have seen continuing declines in cold. In coal. You are seeing declines in the other areas, everything but agriculture. Other modes of transportation as well. All of that falling. Union pacific has to take pretty drastic measures. It has 33 workers on furlough. It has stored 1700 locomotives to shrink its operations to contend with the volumes. Very interesting not just to measure what is going on with Union Pacific but the proxy for the larger economy as well. Southwest today coming out with numbers that missed estimates in terms of earningspershare for the first time in five years. The company not hedging successfully against what are now lower fuel prices. American airlines also pulling back. A lot of concerns in the industry about their pricing ability. Will they be able to keep their profits up . Not a lot of options along that front. Pick a couple of winners, if you would. Ebay doing very well today, rising to a record after the earnings Beat Estimates, helped by sales in the First Quarter business. Also, by stub hub, which it owns. Qualcomm doing well, beating estimates with Strong Demand in china. Alsonce data systems coming out with earnings that Beat Estimates. In terms of other gains, we have been watching health insurers, which are rising even when the department of justice said it will be filing suit to block the two big deals. At the same time, humana came out and raised forecast for profits. Thank you. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Mark crumpton has more. Mark in france, five suspects in custody, facing the luminary terrorism charges. They are accused of helping the driver who killed 84 people with a truck along a beach in nice during a bastille day celebration. The office that oversees terrorism investigation says the driver had been plotting an attack for months. Police in brazil arrested 12 people who Authorities Say were plotting a terrorist attack during the summer olympics. They say the group may be linked to an Islamic State cell. They recorded messages that included religious intolerance and the use of firearms. Police in florida are investigating the shooting of a black therapist who was trying to calm and artistic patient in the middle of the street. A local affiliate obtained cell phone video that shows Charles Kinsey lying on the ground, his arm raised, before being shot. Officers were called on report of a man with a gun threatening to commit suicide. President ial candidate donald trump appears to be catching up with Hillary Clinton on fundraising efforts. According to reports, mr. Trump raised more than 26 million in june, compared to 37 million from clinton. He also forgave millions in personal loans he gave to his Campaign Last year. He will accept the nomination tonight. Global news. 4 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than in many countries. Global markets showing a therising calm this year in sea of global crises. They seem impervious to things like the Brussels Airport bombing, britains vote to leave the eu, and the attempted coup in turkey. Sorry about butchering your name. Tell us about why geopolitical events seem to be having less of an impact on global indices then maybe they once did. Maybe it is just the case of investors getting comfortable being uncomfortable. Is a crisis, it seems come every week, month, quarter. Uncertaintyelection , market uncertainty. So many records in a row here. Do you see an overly exuberant market right now . In certain areas yes, i think so. In other areas, no. I think there is lots of opportunity within the Health Care Stage right now. It has been the second worst sector year to date in the financial. That area has been beaten down quite a bit because of the political overhang. We think, with the election, we start to get some clarity. You seet overhang, opportunities for longterm growth opportunities. Does that mean we have to wait for election results, or can we put money to work now . That for ak longterm investor, this is a really good entry point for this space. I think it is one of the only sectors where we are seeing earning revisions actually move up. Valuations, there are obviously low valuations embedded in this area. We are pretty positive on the nearterm and longterm. David what is your readable we saw today from the department of justice, looking to block this Big Health Care these two Big Health Care mergers . We are more focused on the pharma, biotech, and med spaces. We think there is lots of traction in these areas. Re is a lot of and and a there is a lot of m stephen a activity in those areas. Within pharma and med, it is looking healthy. What about domestic versus nondomestic . Any thoughts on how much they are allocating to the u. S. Versus nonus . I continue to believe the u. S. Is the best house in the neighborhood. A lot of the companies that we own have significant business overseas. The big cap multinationals, for example, some have 60, 70 global exposure. We are getting our global exposure through a lot of those brands. David we talked with julie hyman moments ago about intel results. At the tech space, what attracts you now . Lew there are so many great Growth Trends within tech. That is the one thing that sedative that sentiment can move positively and negatively, but at the end of the day, the growth acts as a tailwind for the companys growth prospects. We are still very bullish within the tech sector. Myim going to jump into. Loomberg for a second it is definitely a stronger range, all told. How much does that impact when you are taking in and putting out . Continuehe dollar does to strengthen, you will probably , andmore of a u. S. Focus also you will want to focus more on the companies with strong secular growth. In 2013, it was all about secular growth versus more cyclical growth. Think, if the dollar does strengthen, that could turn around a little bit. Coming up in the next 20 minutes of bloomberg markets, the largest producer in india. And, the last three nights at the Republican National convention have included surprises and controversies. Isid the time in new york 2 10 in the afternoon. The dow down 0. 6 . Aboutp and s p down 0. 5 . Nasdaq down 0. 4 . David this is bloomberg markets. It is time for the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Exxon mobil will buy enter oil in a deal valued at more than 2 billion. The deal is said to have been approved by the firm as exxon mobil will pay 45 per share plus additional cash. Interoil owns one of the largest undeveloped gas fields in asia. David a Lockheed Martin and boeing joint venture nearly doubled the lobbying money over the last few months. They have been fighting legislative restrictions on the use of Russian Rocket engines. Vonnie the paytv industry has new concerns about socalled cord cutters. Programming blackouts and allowing customers to seek cheaper alternatives online. Sling tv, its own streaming video service, starts at 20 per month. India, a billionaire his his goal to build chemical business tenfold over the next decade is still on track despite the slowdown. Reporter began by asking him how he plans to continue the companys rapid growth . Growthnically, by normal , and partly by inorganic growth , acquisition. Now, i expect the economy will do exceedingly well. Month pecting good expecting monsoons. We are a reform of indirect access for gst will go through. I expect strong growth in india and i hope our growth targets of 10 by 10 will get achieved. Reporter stepping outside india, a three by three strategy, right . Focused on africa, south america. those are product areas where we have strength, have developed affordable products, penetration of Consumer Products in india is low, penetration of Consumer Products in other developing countries are also low. For growth are huge. We are doing well in india in these product field. We think we can do well in other developing countries. Wer the last 10 years, acquired local businesses to fit into this strategy and have been able to build a strong business. The group ofhin companies, any ipo possibilities . Mr. Godrej we have no immediate plans for an ipo, but there might be over a period of time. Any specific acquisition targets . Specificj no acquisition targets, but we are very keen to grow organically. ,avid that was adi godrej speaking on bloomberg tv in mumbai earlier today. Still ahead, president ial nominee donald trump will take the stage tonight for the most important speech of his political career. Well the man who loves to speak his mind stay on message . David this is bloomberg markets. Vonnie 32 politics now. Donald trump is expected to formally accept the president ial nomination tonight. The three days of the convention capped by a divisive speech by rival ted cruz last night. We will in our reporter live in cleveland. Can you give us any idea of how donald trump might surprise . This is going to be the biggest speech of Donald Trumps career. This is what it all comes down to. The convention has been very chaotic so far. Ted cruzs speech last night, refusing to endorse tromp, got cheers and boos. Got jeers and boos. Trump has his work cut out for him to unite this party. Everything he says tonight will over, will have a big impact on what happens in the fall election. He has to bring out his best today. David what is the campaign saying about the content of this speech, what he needs to do with the speech tonight . The theme today is make america one again. It is unity, a difficult one after ted cruzs speech. He will make the case for why he should be president. He will attack Hillary Clinton. It will be a distillation of what we have seen from the man. Also notable, his daughter he banca his daughter ivanka will be introducing him. Vonnie will he stay on script . Sahil i think it will be a mix of the teleprompter and some adlibbing. David a final question about Hillary Clinton. We are waiting for Vice President to pick. To is that campaign deciding make that announcement in light of the speech tonight . Sahil she will be in florida tomorrow and saturday, and the announcement is expected either tomorrow or saturday. I will think what is happening here is going to affect the timing of their announcement or the person they choose. Keep in mind, the Convention Ends today. Starting tomorrow, the focus goes back on the democrats. The deliberations are happening, they have narrowed their shortlist down. The two names that keep coming up over and over again are tim kaine, senator from virginia, and tom vilsack, the secretary of agriculture. David for more on tonights rmbs rnc speakers, we are joined by bloombergs politics editor in chief and tech investor peter thiel, a member of the paypal founders. Talk aboutars old the role he will play tonight speaking onstage at the rnc . He is a big Silicon Valley supporter. Most of the time, the money from the valley goes to the democrats. He is a member of the paypal mafia, one of the founders. He infected in he invested in spacex, bnb. Vonnie how will he be received by the crowd, the delegates . He is homosexual, the first gay to speak at the rnc. Our sources tell us he will talk about being a gay american at the convention. It is a question on how he will be received. A lot of his interests and policies are not aligned with trump. He is a libertarian guy. He has libertarian views toward trade and immigration. A lot of those beliefs are sort of contrary to what trump has been talking about on the campaign trail. He is proimmigration, profree trade. David he is, like many denizens of Silicon Valley, interested in disruption. A number of people say you may be interested in supporting donald trump because of the disruptive nature of his campaign. Ellen he is into Creative Destruction. Many people would say he believes in Creative Destruction when it comes to politics, too. He is a very competent chessplayer. Some of his friends say this is almost the ultimate blowing up of the status quo and to clear the way of whatever comes next. They view his support of trump a little bit the way the idea of sort of blowing up the way things are done in Silicon Valley. Vonnie what do we know of what he will say . Will you get a full throated endorsement of donald trump . Ellen i think the expectation is that he is going to endorse donald trump. He has given money yet, but he is supportive and he is going to talk about his own views. David this is a very public role for him. He is somebody that we know of from his investments and the companies he has found it. Here he is, a gay man, an immigrant on the stage at the rnc. A widely different profile for him. Ellen it has some of his friends scratching their heads, and a lot of people in Silicon Valley saying, is he really supporting the candidate that will work towards our needs . Silicon valley uses a lot of immigrant labor, him again brains immigrant brains. They also do a lot of business abroad. The notion of free trade is important to a lot of Silicon Valley folks. David always great to talk to you, ellen pollock, editorinchief of Bloomberg Businessweek. Reportersthe magazine every weekend on bloomberg television. Still ahead, the commodity close coming up. June,ices toward 50 in but since then, they have been under pressure. Were talking with michael , head of research at barclays. From bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am david guerra. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Lets check the headlines. Mark tonight in cleveland, ohio, donald j. Trump will accept the republican nomination for president of the united states. s address comes after former rival ted cruz refusing to endorse him during his speech last night. Loudly. Booed he said today from could have been surprised. Senator cruz when donald trump asked me to speak, he didnt ask me to endorse. Three days ago, i talked to him on the phone and told him, i am not going to endorse you. Trump advisor paul menard violationcrews is in of his pledge to support the nominee. According to a new poll, clinton and trump are both that 44 . 11 of voters remain undecided. In a fourway poll, trump leads with libertarian gary johnson at 9 and Green Party Candidate jill stein at 4 . Allowed the powers for president everyone. He has declared a president erdogan. Declared a state of emergency and will be able to suspend rights and the law. South african prosecutors are appealing the sentence for oscar pistorius, calling it too lenient. Dayal news 24 hours a powered by journalists in more than 120 countries. In commodities news, west texas oil close lower at about 45 per barrel. Government data shows u. S. Crude and gasoline stockpiles were at the highest seasonal levels in at least a decade last week. Hammillionaire harold spoke earlier on bloomberg. Hamm were going into a period where we will not quite have enough supply coming on for production. We will be pulling out of inventory for the balance of the year. And means higher prices that is what we predicted for the end of the year. Is notthe next question if prices go higher, but when and under what circumstances . Michael, you write in your latest note that it will be a rocky road to recovery. Enumerate what some of those hurdles are on the road ahead . One thing the markets has to contend with is the very high levels of inventory. That inventory, when it is adjusted even for consumption or the level of demand right now in the market, it is still very much higher than where we should be at this time of year. Now, coming out of the summer, gasoline in the summer driving season, we have been forecasting since may we should see it dip. We think there is still a bullish story for oil in the longer term. We wrote back in october about how it might go higher even in a low demand scenario than when 2018, 2019, 2020. Vonnie in the near term, what happens . It seems like prices have stabilized and were going to move higher. Suddenly, prices are on the decline again. Michael first of all, in the latest statistics, saudi arabia has cut Oil Production at a very high level. 10. 6 Million Barrels a day in july. Opec production maintained a high level and actually increased from june to july. The other thing that happened is , because of this very high level of inventory, refinery margins, or the incentive for refineries, started to take down lower and lower. Right now, the market is concerned in trying to price in just how much less refinery utilization we need globally in order to really balance out the markets. If you look at inventory levels over the last several weeks, they basically remain level. If we could do damage to inventories at the peak of the summer driving season and we are looking at a shoulder season, then the market has to move lower. David you say we are on the cusp of rebalancing. When you look broadly, do you think we will have the same amount of volatility we have had . Michael i think we will have bouts of extreme volatility and doubts of low volatility. Bouts of lowd volatility. We have new shale, also nonoe cd producers. Wholesaleer sees the price much more fluidly than it has in the past. The elasticity of supply and demand are getting more and more elastic Going Forward. But, there are a number of Different Things going on right now in the macro environment, the financial environment. A decline in liquidity, inventories that are, at some point in time in the next year, going to start to drop quickly again. That should lead to more volatility in the years ahead. Vonnie i still am not clear on how we get to 85 by 2019. What is going to have to happen between now and then . A lot of bankruptcies . Michael it is not necessarily just about what u. S. Shale is doing. U. S. Shale is just 5 Million Barrels per day out of a Global Supply of 93 Million Barrels per day. That is also the point. Shale, as the most quick source of supply, is also going to be called upon at some point to offset some of that nonopec supply that is declining now at a quicker rate than it was before. We need to see a price high enough to see shale start to grow again. Expect the Technological Innovations will continue, the cost reductions will continue. To a certain extent, some of those cost savings are not permanent. It is going to take a higher price level Going Forward in order to see shale grow at a very high level. That is our conclusion based on our modeling. In order to see 500,000 Barrels Per Day of oral supply growth a oil supply growth, we need prices in the 70 80 range. We focused on much of the reduction of Capital Expenditure we have seen for so many quarters. What is the legacy of that going to be . Michael the last two years, we saw Capital Expenditure instructions expenditure reductions of 50 60 . Exshould see those cap start to increase. Deepwater doesnt receive nearly as much spending on it as it has in the past. During a low price environment, deepwaters share of overall spending starts to decline. Some of these other Unconventional Resources are not going to receive nearly as much as they did in the past. It will take higher prices to bring those back in. Vonnie basically saying it is datadependent. Thank you very much. Coming up in next 20 minutes of bloomberg markets, General Motors Beat Estimates by a mile. We will hear from the cfo, next. David tesla wants to push beyond autos and expand into utilities. Vonnie a quick check of the markets. Just about one hour and 20 minutes before they close. The dow is down about 0. 6 . 10 points, andn the nasdaq down 0. 4 . From bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am david gura. Vonnie shares of tesla are slightly more than 3 today as investors shrugged off the master plans that elon musk has been hyping for more than a week. We will get to that in a moment with bloomberg west anchor emily chang. First, we want to check in on market movements with julie hyman. Julie lets look at housing. We didnt get the latest existing home sales number. It was a strong number. An annuale now is pace of sales that is the highest in more than nine years. In rose by more than 1. 1 in june. Low borrowing costs, improving job market, etc. In terms of what we are seeing stockwise, it is not necessarily a unanimously good story. The company saying it is taking actions to lower general and administrative spending to a targeted range of 9 or less of its 2016 2017 home sales revenue. Second quarter new sales rose 11 . It also came to a settlement with elliott management. It is sort of a standstill agreement. Elliott is no longer allowed to publicly criticize the company. Elsewhere within a home builders, d. R. Horton and mbr also came out numbers. But, they this estimates in terms of revenue at d. R. Horton and earningspershare at mbr. We are also looking at sherwinwilliams, switching to things you use in your house. Hose shares down 7 they blamed it on reduced sales to large homeimprovement chains and also unfavorable Currency Conversions in latin america in particular. The company is trying to become the largest pagemaker. Maker. T but look at things like furniture and fixtures. All of them declining today, which is interesting given the home sales number, that he would still see a pullback. David what of the leading stocks in the s p 500 day 500 todays gm. The Company Posted record secondquarter earnings. Lets get under gms good. The company be analyst estimates by a wide margin. Gm has Beat Estimates by at least 50 for five straight quarters. One of the concerns for investors was slowing growth in the u. S. Auto sales are expected to fall short of 2015s record. If that were to happen, it would mark the first annual decline in seven years. There were still able to post growing income based mainly on truck sales. Americans preference for trucks over cars is more lopsided than ever as crossovers and pickups outsold coupes and sedans for 39 consecutive months. Ford has been the pickup sales leader for more than four decades. Ford is on pace to keep that title this year. The Gm International operations sold 4. 5 million vehicles in 2015, more than the company sold in north america. In europe, where gm has struggled to make a profit, the Company Posted earnings of 137 million. Europe is looking strong, gm did say that the uks plan to leave the eu could cost the company 400 million in the second half of the year. A stock up about 1. 3 . We want to move on to earlier on bloomberg we talked with gm s chief financial officer. Were going to have a listen now. We had outstanding results in the Second Quarter. It is really driven by Strong Performance, outstanding performance in north america. Another record quarter for north america, 3. 6 billion in profit, 12. 1 margins. Continued strength in china. Importantly, profitability in europe. The first profit that we have had their since the Second Quarter of 2011. Tremendous work by the entire team. Take us through the three geographic areas, starting with north america. It has been a strategy at General Motors to make some reductions in overall units in order to cut the fleet sales, get the profitability up on the retail sales . I would say the overall results, both revenue and profitability, demonstrate that our strategy is working as we focus on more profitable retail sales. That has longterm benefits as we look to sustain our 10plus margins in north america. It helps the brand building, better residual values, makes sure we keep our capacity in line, and fundamentally disciplined incentive spending. We will continue to execute the strategy. What was your north american profit margin in q2 . 12. 1 , a record. How does that compare to your overall level . Perspective, on earnings before tax basis, we made 9. 3 , another alltime record for the company. Clearly, north america is a big driver of our overall companys success. One of the things that has helped you in america has been the midsize trucks. Last quarter, there was some trouble delivering, maybe due to problems in japan. Those corrected in q2 . We building every midsize truck weekend. Our transaction pricing in the market is strong. That product continues to perform very well in the market. We are very pleased with the results. We Just Announced recently some new incentive plans. That indicate a certain softness in the market . Absolutely not. What we fundamentally did was execute a very short timeframe incentive play at the beginning of july to start the model year 16 cell down. ,f you look at our track record we have been very disciplined from incentive spending, and we will continue to be. This is nothing more than a model year cell down tactic. Mentioned,me you very important to the growth. How are you doing on overall unit sales and what does your mix look like . We have record sales in the Second Quarter in china. We continue to see a lot of traction, small proof Strong Performance. Buick sales were up significantly in the Second Quarter. Suv sales were up, cadillac sales were up. That ends up showing up in our Strong Equity income performance 9. 5 half 1 billion and net income margins. Clearly, china is a tougher dynamic than in the past, but the team is executing very well and we would expect to see continued Strong Performance theyre Going Forward. Autos, elonking of musk is known as a trailblazer. On tesla havents gotten an underwhelming response. Were headed out west to find the answers. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, i am david jura. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Shares of tesla sliding 3 as investors shrugged off a massive plan that elon musk has been hyping for more than a week. We are joined by bloomberg west anchor emily chang in san francisco. It is a blatant is a big plan and it involves four vehicles. Been elon musk has teasing his second part of the master plan for the last couple of days on twitter. The first master plan came out in 2006. This is really supposed to guide the future of tesla for the next decade. He has proposed four new vehicles. One, a big commercial truck which he calls a tesla semi, a pickup,ving minibus, a and a small suv, or the model y. These would all cannot after the model three. The other interesting part of this plan is, once these cars are fully autonomous, he proposes making them all part of a shared fleet. Your tesla and you can make money while you are not driving it. He says this will enable almost anyone to own a tesla. The argument is that cars are only used about 10 of the time in actuality. Autonomy, this is an issue that regulators are looking into after the death in a big accident involving a tesla driving on autopilot. Musk is undeterred. He says teslas r logging 3 million miles on autopilot a day. Once that gets to 6 million, he believes he will get global regulatory approval. One of the interesting things is that he is proposing, he is saying that at some point tesla on autopilot will be 10 times safer than the average for u. S. Cars. Presumably, they are also working on making self driving teslas much safer than he believes they already are. Part two of the 1500 word master plan details a lot of things. I wonder if he talks at all about the combination with solar city . Emily he makes an additional case as to why this makes sense and as we talked about putting solar panels on teslas, so they are not just powered by batteries but also by solar energy. Interestings because the fact that solar city and tesla are separate from these separate companies are an accident of history and they belong together. He was to create a onestop shop where they can buy the tesla, the solar panels for the roof, the power wall batteries. Investors have been skeptical. Suggesting as much as a 30 premium. He has talked to a lot of investors and anyone he has had a conversation with has come away saying, that was a good idea. Of course, this coming from elon musk. Vonnie it sounds wonderful in theory. How does he pay for it and get it into fruition . Emily nobody knows how is going to pay for it and he didnt reveal a lot of details. There are doubts about whether they could execute on the plans they have for the next two years. They have proposed getting to 500,000 vehicles per year. Last year, they sold 50,000. This is a company that is losing money. But, at the end of this, he is proposing six different vehicles that would target almost every segment of the auto industry. One thing he did say is that there is not going to be a car 3,t is cheaper than a model which might actually give investors more reason to be optimistic. But, he is saying that we will see the tesla semiand the , but doesntyear say anything about when they will get to market. David you can catch emily later on bloomberg west, with a weeklong focus on food technology. She will talk about the future of protein at six ago p. M. Eastern time, 3 00 p. M. Pacific. To pull a reporting earnings after the bell today. This is bloomberg. Date im david gura. Welcome to bloomberg markets. We are watching the word stimulus could be underway in reaction to the brexit folk. What this means for the meeting taking place next week. Dunkin donuts beat on its earnings result. We are talking with the ceo later in the hour. Donald trump set to take the stage in a few hours. We will bring you the latest from cleveland. Lets go to the markets desk. Julie the selloff is accelerating. Volume is about even. Thha