Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2017010

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas January 4, 2017

Web. That was referring to Chuck Schumer. We bring you all of this live as it begins. U. S. Trading session, julie hyman is here with the latest. Julie the rally continuing into its second day. We tend to see a flip on the first week of trading on the new year from what we saw last week of the last year. We could see an up week this week of the last if the last five years are any indication. Rally, buta runaway we are seeing gains. I want to talk about auto sales this morning for the united states. They were largely better than estimated. Gm sales, more than double what analysts are estimating. For reporting an unexpected gain in sales of 10 . Fiat, although its sales fell 10 , analysts were predicting a steeper decline. All of them better. Fiat still trading lower. Gm and ford a gain of more than 3 here. It looks like we could surpass last years hurt for annual sales, up 17. 5 million vehicles. Been an interesting phenomenon of People Holding on to their cars longer. This is a monthly sale, which is why you see spikes look like the numbers were higher in the 2000s. Backve seen a slow climb but people are holding onto cars for for longer. You can see it from the average age here in the united states. Oil, earlier, something that happened yet. Weekly inventories number tomorrow. We have been watching the dollar pretty regularly. There has been rallying but today has been lower. , gold, silver, platinum all trading higher. Yesterday,ull Market Sentiment today, because we are down by one third of 1 . The fourth consecutive day longest in over a month. It took 11 months from the february 2016 low. The ftse 100 bull market last year took five month. What a difference the year makes. Of 20 16, because of china concerns, it fell by 6. 7 . Look at retail, biggest client in the industry group. Look at that, 12 lower as low as 14 . Biggest decline since march of this year. It cut its annual work forecast. A difficult year ahead. Blow to the retail industry. Christmas sales also below estimates. The caution will be listened to by economists and investors. The chief executive is a man they like to listen to last year. He says it will be the toughest year since 2008 here he proven true as well as a week of growth in the online business. When demandhing up could be vulnerable to a brexit en route induced squeeze. A big decline or today in the u. K. At the same time, consumers borrowed the fastest pace in more than 11 years in november. They decide household continue that posts. Net Consumer Credit was 1. 9 billion pounds. Of 2000 since march five. Credit surged almost 11 year on year, the most in more than a driven by consumption, the economy is chugging along nicely. With movement we have seen in the u. K. , 10 year yield, it has been moving up, roughly we that at the same time, have seen volatility. The blue line is 30 day volatility. It has been coming down since september. While we see the move up in bond yields because of the expectation of global pickup in we have seen a retracement in historical 30 day volatility. One of the many charts we are following today. The Affordable Care act taking stage at trump tower today. President obama is meeting to discuss ways to save the law or block any kind of appeal. Is meeting with House Republicans to discuss ways to repeal and replace. President elect trump has unleashed a twitter barrage on the issue and tweeted republicans must be careful that the democrats owned the failed obamacare disaster with massive premium increases. Do not let the schumer clowns out of this web. Joining us is the Senior Executive editor of the Global Economic government for news. What the president elect wants is clear and it is clear they both want the same credit for blocking obamacare, for repealing it in some way. Todonald trump has promised repeal obamacare on day one it is increasingly obvious he will not able to do that. A pr warw become between the democrats and the republicans on who gets the blame. Vonnie do the republicans have a solid plan for how to go about this . I am not talking about a replacement plan but even a partial repeal. Also other efforts with the bill introduced yesterday, known really knows. That is why Vice President elect penns is a palmetto with paul ryan is the guy who will have to figure out the mechanism by which they can claim they have kept Campaign Promises of repealing obama care. There is no clear path on how the republicans will do that without democratic health. Where democrats are making it clear they will not help republicans out of this box. Extent, Chuck Schumer, who trump tweeted about earlier, the new minority leader, the republicans are stuck devising a Replacement Health care plan. Yes. Have two concede Chuck Schumer and the democrats have a point, it is not enough just to repeal obamacare in name and then wait closser years to replace it. There are deaf provisions and obamacare that are extremely possible. Popular. A lot of people have obamacare benefits who do not even realize theyre getting them. Is not repealing them really do anything except create chaos. Mark is this a reminder to donald trump, who expects fast action, will this be a reminder thehe president elect of sometimes glacial pace of congress . That is what the story today suggest. This is not something that happens on day one or 100. Could take months and even years to reassemble in a way that makes sense politically and is policy. It will be a stark lesson in how washington does or does not work. Vonnie will it end up costing more if republicans do succeed because at some point, they will have to keep what is in place right now, at least going for a while until they come up with a proper replacement . Yes, that is the point. If you try to keep popular parts of obamacare, keeping 26yearolds on their parents plans and transferring coverage from one job to the other, it is expensive. Support those provisions and others say there is nowhere way the government should pay for them. It will be a quandary for them to figure out how to make it work. Vonnie marty, thank you for joining us. Meantime, we will follow the press conference which is about to begin. Ice president elect pence joining House Speaker paul ryan. Today, it will be the Affordable Care act, the beginning. Lets turn back to the markets now. For 32 years, a list of surprises for the coming year. A surprisen designed that the average person would only have a one out of three chance of happening. These have more than a 50 chance lets begin with president elect donald trump. Of your top surprises for the year is he might not be as red as he seems to be in his appointments and policies so far. Right. I think your previous guests corroborated that. Talking about tearing up the fort the Affordable Care act right away. He will find out quickly it is not easy to do. Vonnie he will be this way not through any fault of his own that because he is blocked by congress. Things, he will pull back on unilaterally. Things, the whole mechanism of congress will force him to fall back on pullback on. Bothll be a combination of but the result will be a more methodical and thoughtful presidency than most oped writers seem to think. That will mean he will cut taxes. He will dismantle regulation. He will spend money on infrastructure. Gdp growth will be close to 3 rather than 2 . S p earnings close to 130 rather than 120120. And the market will go up. Mark so many of your surprise or surprises are i first you say president elect trump will realize he has been wrong about to a and that will lead more cooperative relationship with the world posse secondbiggest economy. This change oft assessment of china . Do you think anyone will gain from a trade war . When you listen to trumps hetoric during the campaign, was going to slap a 45 tax on all chinese goods coming in. That would create havoc in the united states. He would have the sitter citizenry of this country turning against him. He does not want that. He wants to be the most popular president who ever lived. He is going to be very careful in slapping on tariffs and other things. That is why i think he will proceed very carefully. I also think in the case of china, they are slowing down. One of my surprises from last year was it would go from seven to the dollar. And it was almost there. Vonnie it was there. Yes. Think trump will help china maintain a reasonable growth and china will help im not being hostile. Marx the biggest eye popper for me was your call on anglo merkel, the german chancellor. You say one of your surprises would be her losing the election. Youre almost forecasting if and when that happens due to populist movements, we see a slow unraveling of the euro and the eu. That would be a big shock. That call is massive. Look. It is happening around the world. There have been two populist events so far. And donald trump when is definitely a populist event. Is definitely a populist event. The next big one coming up is merkel. I see no reason why that will not happen. I do not want it to happen. I would like the European Union to stay together. I think you have to recognize that a certain amount of populist momentum is spreading through europe. You will see it in france and definitely in europe and it is immigration related. Vonnie who will get elected in france . I do not know. I do not have as much conviction there. But i think maureen will do much better than people think. What about the banks in europe . It all plays out to the markets in various ways. The yields would impact banks that are already in trouble. Just as in 2008 and 2009, europe cannot allow these to meltdown and we cannot allow our banks to melt down. Survive but will hold on by their fingernails. Made there is money to be if your calls on dollaryen and the pound dollar and on eurodollar are to be believed. Right. I hope they will be believed. I think the dollar will continue to be strong and the u. S. Will be the best of the major markets. I think japan will do well. Year is starting out the relatively strong. I think japan can grow at 2 and most people are not expecting that. Vonnie within 2017 . I want to ask you about mexico. The peso is trading about 21 today, weaker than 21. You say trump will not be bad for china. Will he be bad for mexico and particular . No. I do not think he will tear up nafta either. In my view, the and i states benefits from nafta. He will deal with individual companies. Vonnie we have to stop you there and thank you. To the to go live conference. Vice president elect mike pence joining paul ryans weekly News Conference. We will start with that. We watched what has happened with jobs across the country. Regulations impounded for the last eight years, you will see this week that we will bring up the act. Many of you know about that legislation which simply says give the people a voice when it comes to regulation in america. The act only deals with those bills of regulation that get imposed upon and cost more than 100 million on business. You would think they would have been few of those. If you look in the last six years, there were 82 of those presented and put in place every single year for the from this administration. We have to get the burden off and start working. The raonic will say no new major rulings will be imposed without a vote of the house and the senate with the people have a voice. We will also be dealing with obamacare. Many of you know what these failed policies have done to americans. Withook at the familys employerbased insurance. Premiums have increased by more than 4300. Of the 23 coops that were created in obamacare, 18 of them already have failed. What is most concerning to so many, more than 1022 counties across america, one third, have only one choice, inside the exchanges. Everything president obama promised about health care has failed. So thankful we have a new administration coming that has the wisdom to listen and the courage to lead. Good morning, everybody. Exciting day yesterday to see the new members come in. Excited to get to work for the American People. A member ofnot as congress but as soon to be Vice President of the united states, a great part great partner to get our country back on track. Know somebody else will be here at the capital today and that is barack obama. Backthe president comes here today for the last time as president , it is important to remember the first time barack obama came here as president. He came here and made very specific promises to the American People about obamacare. He said if you like what you have, you can keep it. How did that work out . Lost to of americans the Good Health Care plan they liked and expected to keep and are not able to today because of the broken promises of his law. Passes,of his bill Health Insurance costs will drop dramatically for families. Instead, what have we seen . The reverse. Dramatic increases in health care costs. In my state, over 25 increases families are paying in higher costs for health care because of broken promises of his law. I hope he comes to apologize but i do not think it will be the case. Will be more concerned about preserving his legacy than about fulfilling the promises. We are here tos for fill those promises to the American People if you give us this great opportunity we will work hard every day not just to repeal obamacare but replace it with reforms to pick paid put patients in charge of their health care decisions, in charge of lowering costs, increasing access to health care and bring doctors back into the practice of medicine getting out of the practice because they do not want unelected bureaucrats in washington telling them how to deliver the health care they were trained to provide. It is exciting for the country and we are excited about getting theork to restoring promises made to the American People and get our economy back on track and make America Great again. Happy new year, i am very excited and energized for the opportunities the new year brings. This is a moment we have been given. Youre watching live pictures on capitol hill. These republicans are joining House Speaker paul ryan. You see mike pence in the background speaking in just a few minutes about their meeting to discuss the efforts to block. Bamacare, repeal obamacare we did not hear anything about a replacement. One group is standing out and it is retail. Getting a lift in the wake of the Holiday Season. Look how green it is. The list goes on of all of those going up. There is another index, and apparel and assessor a maker, manufacturers, many also retailers. These are all also trading higher. The most recent indications that the Holiday Season are looking more positive, perhaps what is feeling some of the gains p the retailers also showed weakness at the end of last month. Here are the latest numbers from red oak, which surveys and comes up with estimates for the weekly sales. Are weekly sales going back to early last year. You can see the sales are climbing as we headed through december to a gain of 2. 4 last week. Comingre the numbers from red book and it appears to be one of the catalysts for the retail games today. Consumer discretionary overall, automakers up. 9 . Going back to capitol hill for the House Republicans ands. You have speaker ryan on obamacare repeal. Paul ryan we need to reverse the damage done. Once we repeal the law, we need to make sure there is a stable transition to a Truly Patient centered system. Want every american to have access to quality, a formal health coverage. Obamacare hasngs kept from the American People. More choices. More control, more freedom. We want to put them back in their hands. Gettingthings are only worse under obamacare. This is about people paying higher premiums every year and feeling powerless to stop it. Its about families paying deductibles so high it does not even feel like you have Health Insurance and th in the first place. For if you want to look better coverage, you are stuck with one option to one choice is not a choice. It is a monopoly. Health care has been ruined at dismantled under obamacare. The answer here is not to ignore the problem. The answer here is not to ignore the problem and keep some failed legacy. The answer him it the answer is bold action. We have americans crying out for relief from obamacare and we will keep our promise to the people. We will work with the new administration on every step of the law every step of the way even before day one. He served with us and were so pleased about the new working relationship with our new Vice President elect, mike pence. Mr. Pence thank you to the speaker and the leadership for the warm welcome. I will meet later today with members of the senate in their weekly luncheon. This is a day where our message is very similar simple. On behalf of the president elect and all of the leadership, we are 16 days away from the end of this is as usual in washington dc. Our message today is simple. Working with the leadership in the house and the senate, we will be in the promise keeping business. President elect campaigned all across the country and gave voice to the frustrations at half durations of the American People. He laid out an agenda to make America Great again. My message before this conference is that we keep these. The energetic effort through the torse of this transition build a to implement that agenda speaks for itself. One,terally began on day before the end of the day, we anticipate the president elect will be in the over the oval Office Taking action to repeal executive orders and set into motion through executive action policies to implement promises that were made on the campaign trail. Congress, we will have a classic threepart agenda the president elect talks about so often on the campaign trail. Jobs, jobs, jobs. The focus w

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