Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Middle East 2016

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Middle East November 22, 2016

Im tracy in dubai. Hong kong, where it has just gone midday. To Bloomberg Markets middle east. All right. This, it continues to be dollar story dollar story. Because weve seen the index a little breather today. Still rallying in asian stock continues. Thats exactly right, heidi. The dollar has come off a little today. But over the past few weeks, the rally has really been quite stunning. A chart here. Take a look at this. Weve had a more than two deviation, appreciation in the u. S. Dollar over the past two years. Actually, two standard deviations, two weeks in a row, something thats only supposed 2,000pen about once every times, assuming a normal distribution of probabilities, perhaps we shouldnt be assuming that much anymore. But still, quite stunning. Development that has a lot of impact on the rest of the world, as you know. Yes, tracy. The asianmes to session, we do have quite a bit of upside. In thefluctuations morning. The tokyo session, we had that hit early this morning. 2 10 by 1 . P around that 1 10 handle. Got the sensex bouncing back. Ofre seeing a little bit bargain hunting driving those gains. How are things shaping up for trading day ahead of that open in the middle east . In the middle east, it is just under two hours away from the opening of the markets,. Ubai and lets take a look. So a mixed picture in saudi 1 . Ia, down dubai and ab dhabi basically water at this point. Weve still had speculation we will getr or not continued consolidation. Be the bigto question mark this week. Lets check in on the first word around the world. Stories this top hour, donald trump has outlined his policy priorities, including moving to dump the Transpacific Partnership on his first day in office. He also promises to lift restrictions on energy to create of highpaying jobs. Into morelooked potential cabinet members, including rick perry, scott brown, Newt Gingrich and mary fallon. Its the first time in 13 days its raised the rate from the preceding one. One former advisor has called on the bank to abandoned and accelerate depreciation before donald trump becomes president next year. Iranian banks are trying to catch up with the rest of the world. The bank has instructed local lenders to set up Compliance Risk management programs and to implement globally accepted accounting practices. Of isolation have left them with outdated practices which pose additional hurdles for foreign banks. British Prime Minister may prepares for negotiations for e. U. Ng the raised concerns about a socalled hard brexit. He said his party would campaign continued access to the e. U. s market. Ofcertainly, we have plenty concerns. Every business ive met, every ofde union, every Group Resident and workers ive met are concerned about it. The problem is, the government not set out what its not set out aill proper timetable for it. Up so far areme the words that brexit means brexit. Brexit meanswhat in that context. Global news 24 hours a day, by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. Thanks for that. President elect trump has released a short video outlining his political priorities, as he continues to meet potential members of his administration. Indicated his intention to follow through on some key campaign promises. Trade, i am going to issue a notification of intent to from the Transpacific Partnership, a potential disaster for our country. We will negotiate fair, bilateral trade deals that bring ontoand industry back american shores. All right. On what all of this means, americas withdrawal from the t. P. P. And when it comes to asia. David is with me. David, great to have you. Mean, so much to talk about out of that video. The video itself, is thing to talk about, because is this a precedent for how were see any announcements made out of the Trump Presidency . Are they going to come on videos . Thats pretty unusual but this is a guy who likes to tweet stuff as well. An hour agoabout that he tweeted that many people think its a great idea that had become the next ambassador. I wonder what mrs. May thinks that suggestion, i wonder what she thinks about the fact that the suggestion was thats prettyause outrage as well, but then everything is going to change right . Rump, a brave new world ahead of trump moving into the white house. The ramifications. Said that he was going to pull out of the t. P. P. I think the interesting thing theseit, theres been asian leaders, people in asia, hoping against hope that it wouldnt happen. The rhetoric coming through from japan. Right. Australia. Saying the same thing. They hope that eventually trump can come through, and some other negotiated. I spoke to the head of the school of public policy. Im a hindu. Reens believe in carnation. But the thing is, the u. S. Is itsgoing to be under present guise. The implications are more geopolitical than economic at stage. What it is doing is signaling to asiahe military leaders in is ceding power and influence. Theres a big country just over were sitting there in hong kong, and that is china. David, its tracy in dubai. I was just going to ask you, two ways that china could view this. On the one hand, the reduction in trade is a potential head wind for the economy. It does givehand, china the chance to increase its influence in the region. How are authorities there going to react . Well, china doesnt need to do anything in order to increase its integration into the region, signaledhe u. S. Has its going to exit. China, which has already gotten fta with the association of Southeast Asian nations, theyve a Free Trade Agreement with them. Theyve got another agreement which includes countries like india and other countries, 16 altogether. Off, thatn bring that is a huge political, you know job for china,l because it will influence and integratesh china or china into those asian economies. But lets face it. Without the u. S. , china has really got open here anyway, because china is the biggest trading partner for every country in asia. Get political influence. Its a winwin for china, even off some ofpull these other trade agreements its working on. Thank you so much. Well, lets turn now to to ourng very close hearts here in the gulf. Oil is continuing its climb, a threeweek high on renewed optimism that opec to cut will agree production next week. Our reporter joins us now for more. Anthony, i want to start with a chart, which really highlights some of the uncertainty currently happening in markets. If we take a look, this is speculative positioning data cftc, showing that money manager positions in total highest sinceir 2007. That is both long and short. Essentially that no one seems to know whats going to happen. Should we be on the lookout for, in terms of what opec might week . Ce next well, were all looking for the potential that they will deal to decrease production. That would take some output off of the market and opec says theyre really targeting the stockpiles, the extra crew in storage. Acts as a break on price,brake on the because theres all that Additional Oil that could come into the market and that limits the price increases we could have. Opec has specifically said theyre really targeting those stockpiles to get those off the market and give the price kind of more of a writeup. We saw Goldman Sachs yesterday theyg even without opec, think the market will probably bounce towards the end of the year. Opec deal would kind of take those stockpiles off the market in the first half and accelerate a little bit. So, you know, as the future positions show, the market is looking for volatility. Theyre up on both the short side and the long side. Looking for kind of a wild ride next year, as deal, well know by the end of the month, as that kind of plays out in the next and we see if opec agrees to that and how much they stick to it as well. Drill down thats an oil pun for you that he is into thatl down uncertainty. We do have positive noises coming out of opec. What is actually driving that uncertainty . Well, the uncertainty really will get theey deal, first of all, and whether theyll stick to the deal. Also u. S. Shale oil out there. So thats a big question for oil as to at what price does shale start coming back . Will the opec decision create in the market. Have . Rice will we and then, you know, how quickly will shale react, and how long market . Y stay in the if the price comes up too high, potentially that brings more go back down we again, or opec gets into a situation where they feel theyve lost market share and we get back to the same situation we were two years ago. Ande are all hypotheticals the market doesnt know. Thats the reason for this uncertainty as well. Talk a lot about iran and iraq as the major question marks. Where do the saudis come down output . Comes to that the saudis want a cut. This is the reason why goldman and some other market prognosticators are being more theyre seeingse a real motivation there. Theres also positive signals or signals coming out of russia. Russia, of course, not an opec wants to bring some of those nongroup board to help take supply off the market. Russia was saying theyd be freeze, of course theyre at record high levels to a freeze doesnt do that much. Opec might be looking to get a little bit more participation nonmembers. But a lot of the analysts are take theudi having to brunt of cuts. Theyre obviously the biggest producer in opec. Seasonal draw juan, after we get out of the ammer months when saudi uses lot of extra oil for air conditioning. Usehe winter, they tend to less. But really, other producers are expecting them to come down additionally. Iran and iraq, they dont want a cut at all. Iran says were coming back from sanctions. Iraq says were battling islamic state. Take oil off to the market. So thats really kind of the decisions that theyre looking work out. And now, in light of the meeting at the end of the month, heidi. Reaching fever pitch, as usual, ahead of that meeting. Dubai. In lets get the latest on the is one ofhere energy the driving stories. Latest. He yes. So is the Higher Oil Prices all over again. And boosting those Energy Stocks in asia, as they did over in wall street. So were seeing asian stocks gaining for a second consecutive session. Reversing those losses and gaining 1. 3 , even the cost reversing two days of losses to gain 8 10 of 1 . The composite extending in gains, now at the highest level january. The index is also gaining 1. 3 . Data fornflation october coming out of hong kong in just a few hours. Thats expected to slow the growth to 2 . Its up 2 10 of 1 . Earthquake not having such a severe impact on the facilities in japan, especially when it comes to Nuclear Facilities that have affected by the 2011 earthquake. We heardpiked since the earthquake happened in asia. Were now seeing the yen strengthening slightly, but that also has to do with the u. S. See thetory, as we dollar weakening against most asia,currencies in including the korean yuan. Take a look at japanese stocks that were affected because of noise. Thquake tokyo electric power, down 1. 6 . Insurers losing half a perfect, some travel stocks as well, picture across asian stocks, especially those in japan, being affected by the earthquake. Thank you so much. Later in the show, we will continue talking about the japan, warning out of post the earthquake off the coast of fukushima. We also will be talking about ore. This is bloomberg. Welcome back. Youre watching bloomberg. Im tracy in dubai. Heidi in hong kong. 2016. Sing gains through spiked 6 . However, some analysts say the good times wont roll much longer. Spoke to chairman hamburg earlier today and began by commoditiesthe different grades. Very highgrade material, 65. 8 . Weve never had a problem finding a market for our product. Look at some of the lower grade products, so the standard 62 . Is sub60 , particularly coming out really doia, which struggle to find a home. Setthey are the ones that their stockpiles up in ports causee beijing and trouble for the market. Tell me something. We do see these iron producers, likes of rio, producing more and more iron ore. Cynic inside me would say theyre trying to drive other people out of the business. I being far too cynical . I dont think its for me to comment on rio im saying generically, big overproducing . I think definitely there was amongst thegreed ore companies. Lays thehe goose that golden egg in terms of the a periodion, suffering of very bad health. Geese were those destroyed. But youve now reached a period of consolidation, i think. Youve seen the price tick up a bit. Think always said, and i a price beneath 60 a ton is not sustainable. Have prices in the 80s. And these are exciting times again. Maybe. You its 70 at the moment. Now, what is it telling us about the market at the moment . View . Leveling off in your what are you seeing on the demand side of things . Thats crucial. From my point, it goes back to our specific window into the market. For a high grade material, there has never been an issue in terms demand. For the lowgrade materials, there have been more complications. Stem fromlications your ability to take that material, your ability to find that material. One of the biggest impacts on the iron ore market has been able to find credit. Its a lot easier to find credit for a highgrade product. Looking ahead, whats the like . Size looking will we see ramping down . Anticipate . There has been a process of slowing of supply growth. Which is definitely set probably for the next five, 10 years, in my view. The ability for the market to to take mines offline has definitely been proven in the months. Some of the majors have been taking off mines. Think, is a good thing for the supply and demand. Billion 100 has become the stuff of nightmares. This is bloomberg. Chinese property. Welcome back. Youre watching bloomberg. And im tracy in dubai. That again. I was getting ahead of myself. Lets start over again. Very excited about this story, because we talk a lot about these ghost towns in china. Chinese Property Developers are megasizedat these farm projects will upset the buying slowdown. A 100alking about billion city. Weve been covering this story. The optimism . As you said, there is a concern that there are ghost towns that could pop up offshore, given that Chinese Developers are looking at 2017 about 5 in to 20 . What theyre seeing in the south of malaysia, around the city of johor, theyre looking at 2. 0. What theyre attempting to do is projects,e massive looking to invest 100 billion decades, intotwo attempts to lure chinese overseas buying. So when you talk to people about this development, real development, do you think there are grounds for concern . Consensus . As we see these developers building on theyre the ground in the south of malaysia, were seeing a supply deepening. Thousands of homes are to come online. Concernedbservers are theres going to be a supplydemand mismatch. Theyre not seeing the market to absorb this, at least for the next five to 10 years. While we have players seemingly this, given the proximity to singapore, you cannot deny the fact some of the ground, there are still units left unsold. A fascinating story. Toldg up, saudi arabia is it needs more Foreign Investors market. Its stock speed always wins. Especially in my business. With slow internet from the phone company, you cant keep up. Youre stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. Switch to comcast business. With highspeed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. You wouldnt pick a slow race car. Then why settle for slow internet . Comcast business. Built for speed. Built for business. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Its 12 30 p. M. In singapore. Im Haslinda Amin and these of the first word headlines from around the world. Opec members have made progress toward opec cuts. It is nowchs says technically bullish. Complicated by irans commitment to boost production and iraqs request for an exemption. Donald trump has outlined his policy priorities, including moving to dump the Transpacific Trade Partnership on his first dan office. He promises to live restrictions on energy to create quote many millions of highpaying jobs. Brown, and newtt ginter Newt Gingrich. Action at thelied banks december meeting reached 100 for the first time, according to bloomberg calculations made from fed bond futures. Also betting that Donald Trumps inflationary policies will mean a quicker pace on money tightening. The p boc enters of record run of weakening against the dollar. Thats the first time in 13 days it has raised the rate from the preceding one. The currency traded and eight year low on monday. One former advisor has called to abandon intervention and accelerate depreciation before donald trump becomes president next year. This is bloomberg. Japan has lifted all soon army alerts after a magnitude 7. 4 earthquake off the coast of fukushima. And looks like things have settled down. There were no reports of major damage being done. Thats right. Japans Meteorological Agency has said all soon on the warnings and advisories are live ago japan40 minutes time. There have not been any reports of major damages. Transportation services are resuming again. Delays. E still some there were some travel disruptions for people who were flying and they canceled a couple dozen flights. It was reported that about five people were injured. Earthquake didde strike in the early hours of the morning and there were Warnings Issued for a possible three meter tsunami. People in the area had been asked to evacuate. In 2011 of course we saw a very big earthquake hit the area, reason enough to bring back memories of that time when thousands were killed back in 2011. This was the most severe tsunami warning that had been issued since then. In the end it was a one meter tsunami reported and some smaller waves in other places. Aftershocksned of because a similar size one hit the region back in 2011. And it doesnt mean that just because one is over it doesnt mean another will not happen a few days

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