Collateral damage to train the glued cut the crude. I am angie lau where it is just past noon. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets middle east. One notable thing today is absolutely with the markets are doing, extending the rally. Especially after the china trade data rolled through, we have exports, imports, both up and better than expected, surprised to the outside. On the other side, what is supporting the markets, trump. Trillion, that is the number on my mind this morning. That is the market seeing this on this chart. Fresh out of our bakery, this really tells the story of donald trump and the u. S. Election. You are looking at the combined value. This is a month since the trunk win. Trump win. A billion dollars into the market since december 6 november 6. Said, they are extending record highs both from the s p 500 and dow jones. Bankshares, some of them at eight year highs. Angie it is, banking stocks rise for a third day. Lets get a look at the markets. Mumbai has been trading for three minutes. Begin to watch this fight sensex. These two on the hang seng extending gains as well as tokyo on basically deflation there he expectation from donald trump. Expectation from donald trump. This was the state of play in abu dhabi. It was mostly a brighter picture , dubai gaining 1. 25 , gains in abu dhabi. Trading in saudi, petrochemical stocks under pressure with the oil price in the last trading day. And in saudi, coming under quite a bit of pressure after the ceo designed for personal resigned or personal reasons. More foreign interest in egyptian stocks after the government finally pulled the plug on the support for the egyptian pound, letting the currency take over. Lets check in with first world headlines, here is sophie. Thank you. Official has agreed to sell its stake in rock ness to glencore and what is the biggest ever privatization. They will pay 11. 3 billion for 19. 5 of the company, taking equal shares. Russia is trying to raise cash after the collapse in oil prices. Japan unexpectedly cut the reading of thirdquarter growth to 1. 3 down from a luminary measure of 2. 3 . Preliminary measure of 2. 3 . This is the first time japan has used a new method to cut you late gdp, helping to bring shinzo abe dozer to his goal of boosting growth to ¥600 trillion. Parcel jordan has won a victory partial victory over usage of his name in china. He has the rights to the characters that have translated name intoters characters in chinese. Star has sued a Company Selling sportswear under his romanized name. There is a motion to impeach president potts today. Her40 page document accuses of bribery, abuse of power and violation of duty. It will be brought before the is National Assembly in time to allow vote on friday. She has apologized for the undue scandal and will accept parliaments decision. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Reboundednas exports in november as demand held up and the cheaper yuan boosted competitiveness. We have Tom Mackenzie standing by. Lets go through the details here. Tom i am surprised. Want to focus on is 0. 1 , does not sound too glamorous. It is the increase for november year on year. Incompares to a drop of 7. 3 october. Prior to that, exports were down. And so that is looking very healthy. Why is that . The yuan is trading at an eight year low against the dollar, appears to have fed into the competitiveness now, increased competitiveness for chinas exports. They are facing challenges. Wages, lettingr them struggling to make money. Leaving them struggling to make money. Global demand and household, you see the uptake in the u. S. Handheld household in spending power, that played a role in this as well. We saw exports from korea go up in november as well. No great surprise this is positive, but the extent to which it has been forecasts is a surprise. 6. 7 imports, they came up in november. That compares to a drop of 1. 4 . Stocking up on commodities, crude, oil, coal. That is Infrastructure Spending we have seen here, putting it into railways and bridges to underpin Economic Growth here. It is positive for export numbers and 0. 1 , surprising many. You mentioned the weaker you want. What is the yuan. What is the policy response . Tom these follow on the positive pmi manufacturing data we got for the month of november as well. What it feeds into is this support level now that havedency policymakers two pull out of the system and drain liquidity and economy without undermining growth too much. We are still on track, to hit that target of 6. 5 . It would be a great surprise if they missed that. Most Analysts Expect the pbs you to step up tightening. He is it is already doing , with the drawing some of that liquidity, so it gives them extra confidence to do that. There will be pressure from lobbyists with the export Center Getting cheaper yuan, the benefit of that already. The focus is very much on capital control, trying to stop the outflows. Partt numbers show the old of the economy still growing very strongly here, manufacturing and factories, does not say much about the rebalancing china has focused on, but they will not sniff at it. It allows them to pull out liquidity going forward. Lets carve out the story and get analysis. We have the chief economist at emo Global Asset Management great to have you. You have seen china data. This is good news for the Global Economy. Isit is a sign that economy healing. We have had a week time for industrial reduction. China has tried to censor this, so it is a sign things are looking better. Yousef it be expectations by quite a margin. Could this just be a oneoff . At the you look yearoveryear figures, you are always conscious there was a great time of weakness, and as that passes, you see the yearoveryear continue to improve. The main thing when you look at month on month is what is happening to global inventory, and companies are beginning to build up stock, increase inventory ahead of expected sales. Consumers demand has been fine, stabilizing. Things are on balance quite a bit better. I want to ask you about another export inflation here from china. We have a weaker yuan, but on the other hand, we are dealing with higher commodity prices. How is that going to push into the Global Growth story . I think the rebound in commodity is from low levels. The overshot on the way up and the way down. As the Global Economy proves, iron improves, iron ore of which china is the dominic consumer, they pick up as well. It is good inflation, reflects increased economic activity. The broader issue for the developed war world anyway is the extent to which you get domestic generated inflation. There are signs of that in the united states, that is why the Federal Reserve might raise Interest Rates asked week. So the overall pattern, deflation bad, small inflation good. We are only at modest levels of inflation. China had a problem for years ago, but does not have one now. There are headwinds not from china but from europe. Stay right there. We will get back to you after the break. Stephen bell, chief economist at vmo. Lets get the latest from haidi lun energy has got the latest. Haidi i want to do a quick check of the aussie dollar, because this is one of the proxies that can react dramatically to chinese dollars. We had the exportimport numbers , much stronger on yuan terms as well as dollar terms. That is very good for the australian economy, given it is the number one Trading Party when it comes to australia. . 74 97. We are seeing a little bit of stress, this is from the aussie today, but holding up strong despite the australian trade data today on the back of the gdp contraction yesterday, which was the worst in almost eight years. Looking very nice with shanghai against [indiscernible] when it comes to mainland markets underperforming pretty much all the way through this. Trump trading enthusiasm, the record close on wall street, the 12 record close when it comes to what we have had since trump being elected. Also some anticipation that the ecb, mario draghi, will follow through with asset purchases. That is what the markets are expecting. Some of the strongest gains from australia. Sydney up 1. 25 . The miners are saying they are overweight on minors and financial in australia, and some banks and Mining Companies are doing well. , a weaker is up 0. 1 yen that is listing things, and ,he kospi very strong session up to 1. 25 ahead of the Impeachment Vote of being taken in parliament tomorrow. Southeast asia seeing nice gains. Oil is back on track ahead of the opec and nonopec member meeting. We are seeing energy names doing nicely. One in the region is health care, tracking losses in the u. S. Overnight with donald trump expected to cut down when it comes to pharmaceutical prices. That is seeing danger in this part of the world. Yousef quite a positive picture. Lets get a bit of a preview from what will come. We will discuss how the merging market outflows are affecting banks in this part of the world with the head of tylers biggest commercial lender thailands biggest commercial lender. Angie watching for mario draghi. This is bloomberg. Yousef welcome back. We are lies in dubai. This is Bloomberg Markets middle east. You are watching on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. I am angie lau in hong kong. We are seeing market ahead of the final rate of the year, we have matt miller explaining why any decision to extend quantitative easing will be closely watched. Matt investors are counting on the ecb to follow through with measures to maintain substantial monetary support for the reason region, but if mario draghi does not meet expectations, there could be a selloff in equities. Most expect super mario took prolonged quantitative easing at the pace of 80 billion euros or 86 billion for another half year. Other than the key measure of disappointment will likely be the single currency itself. In december 2015, mario draghi said officials will do what we inflation as quickly as possible, building expectations of a stimulus package on its way. When they came out with the small deposit rate cut an extension of qe instead, no monthly increase, the euro surged the most in six years. Matt miller, bloomberg, berlin. Yousef the chief economist at Global Asset Management is still with us. This is a huge day for the governing council we have put up this chart, hdmi. I really like this, because it shows the Market Impact and lays out the previous announcement for the policy decision. Then you have the upper boundary respond and lower boundary respond, and the upper has been higher. What do you expect mario draghi to tell us today . Is he going ton do if he rolled over the program. Lets see if he does not answer today and does not have to wait until next month. Assuming he announces it, it is 80 billion or is it last . , does he produce a time limit for this to come to an end . Assuming he does not give a time for this, i think it will happen. And then, is he taking action to eliminate what is effectively the running out, the scarcity of german bund . You have got to do something. You have got to deposit the floor limit. There is all kinds of things he can do. Some of them will be held to save, some of them less so. Yousef the modalities of the program itself. This shows the bond buying program, and some of the Different Directions on that front. As the yield begin to three pop slowly youll begin to creep yields begin to creep up slowly, how does it increase the bond buying parameters . Steven it makes it easier. Bondi mario draghi should extend that. Lets not do more. They tend to be german, but they really dominated. By theally dominated general consensus we have inflation target, that is the objective, lets keep doing more until we have more. Arise, thed does scarcity issue affecting german bund in particular does ease. But they may make some changes, but they will not the main as radical as a few weeks ago, yield for lower, they may have to make some changes in the evening of scarcity. If this means you end up buying more italian bonds because you shift the purchases, that is positive. If you buy more bund, that is negative. The biggest reaction as matt is talking about is on the euro. If he fills the expectations, the euro goes down again, it has been going up strongly, and that is a global phenomenon, and is worrying about how he will meet past expectations. Angie or maybe he does not say anything at all because there is a lot on the plate when it comes to 2017, stephen, what will happen with rex it, im number of nations as they go through the electoral processes. And trump coming into office, all of that, really huge question mark when it comes to regardless of guidance of ecb or not. Steven absolutely, politics, politics is the theme of the moment. As investment banks and people 2017 outlook,eir some have already come out, they are talking a lot about politics. We have had italy and istria austria and brexit, next is the french elections. Penguess is that marine le from the front will not win. Theon will win win, and that will be positive for the markets. It isnt all political shocks. Politics very important next year. Yousef another event is the meeting between opec and not outback. I was speaking with Oil Ministers yesterday. They wanted to bring on the nonopec nations to a broad agreement. What is your outlook on that . Steven i dont want to come opecsas cynical, but ability to maintain agreement let alone get one it has got one, but it has not started yet, the ability to maintain that would countries have a desperate need to boost revenue, it is tempting to push ahead. The more significant factor is that the oil market has stabilized itself. Taking a step back from the speculation about what the nonopec members would do, deal today, tomorrow, the World Economy is in a better place, so the oil price is stabilizing as a result of stabilizing demand. Yousef we have interesting inventory out of the u. S. Which shows of the oversupply story then one on the other side. We are out of time. Stephen bell, thank you. Lets get you a taster of what is next. Choice for china, why trumps change would be no stranger to xi jinping. Yousef you are watching bloomberg. Angie the president elect, donald trump, reportedly has his man for china, Iowa GovernorTerry Branstad has taken the opportunity. We have got Stephen Engle joining us right now. You are a veteran here when it comes to chinese. That is four american envoys to china . Stephen i have crossed their path or they have crossed mine. Angie has Terry Branstad ever cross your path . Stephen no, but going back to the others, and gary locke, jon manyman, there have been ambassadors all very different timesrhaps a man of the has given me a delicate relationship between china and the u. S. , and this man trump has picked and has reportedly accepted, Terry Branstad is a longstanding friend, that is how he is being described by trump and also by the Chinese Foreign minister, of xi jinping. The Chinese Ministry says it is a longterm friend of the chinese people. They go back to 1985 when he met him in iowa. He celebrated xi jinping offending to the presidency in 2012 in a banquet in des moines, iowa. He goes way back, shared interest in agriculture. How is wall street, how are many Money Managers accepting this . Lets here. The oriental concept of faith and confusion is romantic, but they can out weight you for a century. So having someone who has already been to that rodeo, has thisds the program is a brilliant move. Stephen so if he is yousef if that is the good cop, who plays the bad cop . Stephen someone else can be the bad cop with tweets, but who is secretary of state . Geopolitical affairs . Is it mitt romney or jon huntsman . Right now it is Steve Immunogen mnuchin. On his first day, trump will label china a currency manipulator, that will be for the secretary. And then there is the review committee looking at foreign reviews into the united states. There was a record last year, 16. 3 billion u. S. Dollars more so than u. S. Investment into china, a lot of hawks in washington saying when you do have a stricter review of chinese investments in the u. S. Yousef thank you always down to the line. Angie it is 12 30 in hong kong. These are first world headlines. China rebounded in november to rise 6 in yuan terms and edged into positive territory in dollar terms. That is as demand held up and weaker yuan boosted competitiveness. There was almost 10 falling against the dollar since august. Leaving aso rose, trade surplus. Japan unexpectedly cut the reading of thirdquarter growth to 1. 3 down from the preliminary measure of 2. 3 . They defaulted on Capital Spending and infrastructure. This is the first time to choose a new method for gdp, hoping to bring shinzo abe closer to his new goal of 1600 trillion yen. This focus shifts to whether opec will be able to implement cuts. The cartel may not be able to persuade just persuade independent able to persuade independent people to cut. 25,000lc will receive a day next year, told percent less than before the cuts were agreed. Bill english is now all but certain to be Prime Minister after his rivals for the post pulled out. Prime minister Judith Collins withdrewealth minister , saying it was supported by a national majority. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Yousef thank you. Lets take a look at what has been driving the markets. We are joined by samuel husayn. Great to have you on the program. With the gcc, it is really transformed. I brought this up to get additional context. This is how old stocks are trading. Gold stocks are trading. 2016, thehis over qatari stocks, dubai, and for official context, we put the emerging market benchmark as well. You can see it is white. Th