It had been speculated about in the u. K. Press. They are now on the hunt for a new head of the financial office. Back to you. Caroline, thank you very much. Aggie to talk about. The first trading day of 2014. It feels more like that next week. Lets get a quick check on the markets. To see theseing markets a little bit firmer this morning. You are seeing the ftse 100 up by 0. 1 . The cac 40 up by 0. 3 . Some of the markets, you can see that we are getting moves on the upside. In asia, the trading session weakened somewhat by chinese manufacturing numbers. They came in a little weaker than some had expected. Still about 50 for that important date of manufacturing. Disappointing to some. That took the edge off things a little bit. We look at manufacturing pmi numbers from various eurozone countries later today. Lets keep an eye on gold as well. We are seeing gold bouncing a little bit. 2013 was not a good year for gold. We have the worst annual drop in the gold price since 1981, down 28 in that one year. Aswill keep a check on these well. Nymex and brent both a little bit higher. We will get the european pmi manufacturing numbers later on. They are going to come fast around this next hour. This as we went up to those numbers is where we are on the Foreign Exchange markets. The euro dollar currently at 1. 3728. The euro just on the back of little bit. France inocus on particular and on italy, spain, all of that coming this hour and later on. Certainly the focus for many will be on those peripheral eurozone countries, just how much stronger are they getting . Just how much weaker are some of the members of the core . At thosee looking french numbers. As we look ahead to 2014, joining us now to discuss his outlook and possible surprises for the year, lets welcome the senior global asset allocations strategist at ubs investment bank. Thank you very much were coming to join us. You made it through the new year festivities. We find these markets open a little bit on the upside. Are you expecting another strong year for equities in 2014 . Absolutely. Our call is that europe will outperform. We see a further upside in europe. Japan may be the surprise in 2014. We have seen a rally in europe and the u. S. What we havent seen in japan is a rerating rally. If people buy into this and start to see these reforms having a positive effect on inflation and earnings continue to improve, then we could see japan surprise on the upside in 2014. You are expecting globally to see, would you say a sluggish recovery . Absolutely. If you look at the u. S. Growth over the last 40 years, there has been a secular slowdown. We are seeing sluggish growth globally for this year and next year. It is more of a return to trend growth and fairly sluggish growth at that. It is not an amazing economic recovery but i think we could see equity outperform in 2014. Maybe not as much as we saw in 2013, but still a good performance. I hate to be such a killjoy on the second of january, but what chance of an equity crash . Equity markets came a long way in 2013. In the last trading day of 2013. We seeance that something that stalls that as early as this month western mark the kind of surprise we expected to have a negative impact on equity was the tapering. In fact, nothing happened. Volatility fell. Equity markets rallied. It may be that the second round of the tapering may have a bigger effect. If you look back to 1994, the first rate hike didnt have a big effect. The second one increased volatility and caused the inlapse in a poorly equity. We are expecting 10 billion per announcements now. Perhaps the second time will be the shock. Or it could be some kind of geopolitical surprise. We have seen worries of the South China Sea which may cause some pullback in equity markets. And in russia of course as we look ahead to the sochi winter olympics. Georgia andems with chechnya, that is not going to go away. They have been Holding Putin to rent some in some sense. Also, places like ukraine with political instability and a reemergence of the strength of china. Tell us about these other risk venues that you think could surprise us in 2014. Things that could happen. You think it would be a surprise if gold were to continue to drop and go down to a three digit number. That would be one of the shocks. If you look at gold, it has fallen by 28 but two thirds of that drop has been in the three or four days after fomc announcements. It could be that policy changes from the fed will be what drives gold down further. That would have been a big shock if it falls down to three figures, but that is a possibility now as we see google talk about tapering and think about rate hikes in 2015. Talk about m a. Going into 2013, some people had High Expectations for m a. That delivered in some cases and not in others. What would be a surprise on the m a story for this year . Where is the m a wave . This time, where is it . We havent seen it so far. We are forecasting that it is going to happen. We built a model that predicts there will be a 30 rise in global m a. H we expect him to be we expect it to be in technological sectors globally. Recently we have this chrysler deal. We expect that to pick up, certainly. That would be a positive story for equities. In addition to the rotation story which we are expecting too. Ramin nakisa thank you so much. He will stay with us as we get further thoughts from him as we go through the program. Here is a look at what else is coming up of on the move. Ceos deal to buy the rest of chrysler. It may have been happy holidays for john lewis but did the grinch steal christmas on the other u. K. Retailers . Antimore on that as we go through the program. Fat profits. How one is really company is turning krill into bigbox. He did right here. We are on the move on bloomberg television. This is on the move on bloomberg television, radio and streaming on your phone, tablet and bloomberg. Com. Here are is a stock that is on the move. Lets check out what is going on in the u. K. Retail sector. Devon is up by 3. 5 . Warningued a profit that took the edge off not just their share price but some other retailers in the u. K. Many people asking themselves if it is just a tough time for enhams. Wns deb they are talking about a last minute gift rush, a huge surge in the last 10 days before christmas. Emergely more details to on that story as we go through the week ahead. Hasitalian carmaker fiat agreed to buy the remaining stake in chrysler it does not yet hold. We are getting an opening price on fiat shares. Deal wouldon dollar give fiat full ownership of the Third Largest u. S. Automaker. Ryan chilcote has more. The stock is up 13 . Is this a good deal for the ceo . Clearly, investors think so. There is two things to this. One is the price that Sergio Marchionne paid. 4. 35 billion i should say. It is less than what many people thought. A lot of people thought he would pay somewhere between 4. 5 billion and 5 billion. 5 billion is what the union wanted. He upped it a little bit. The second part i think is that this is happening at all. There was that idea that there could be an ipo, that chrysler could have an ipo which was really about price discovery. The result of that price discovery was that bankers ofeed they think the whole chrysler is worth somewhere between 10 billion and 11 billion. For 4. 35ing 41. 5 billion. That looks consistent with that valuation. It is a good deal for him compared to what he was originally looking at having to pay. Now he can go through with his master plan of merging fiat with chrysler. As you say, investors clearly like this. That solve all of fiat off problems. They are facing what is certainly a weak european car market. I think there is two things. It doesnt solve all of fiats problems. Recentlyen propped up by money that it was able to take from chrysler. What it does do is give Sergio Marchionne a lifeline to try to turn fiat around. There is 12 billion of cash sitting in chrysler that he can now access. Maybe as early as the end of this month. Certainly in the next couple of months, next several months. He can use that money to sort of launch his Restructuring Plan for fiat, try to make fiat a luxury carmaker, that is the idea. A map with model that people actually want to buy. It is an insurance policy to get through what is obviously a rather difficult condition for seven cars in europe, 20 year low at the moment. It doesnt mean that he is his actual transformation of fiat will be successful. This just buys him some time to pull it off. Ryan, thank you very much. That fiat story getting a lot of Market Attention this morning. Now 15 . Up by still let us, ramin nakisa senior global asset allocations strategist at ubs investment bank. Punchy move on fiat this morning. Looking at european carmakers, do you like what you see . Is this a story that you want to buy into . Wax the things we are looking for right now which have a high exposure to the recovery in europe, we are going from contraction to expansion. Things which have a high beat to be another would sector that we like, the car industry maybe not so much. As you pointed out, in europe it has been very sluggish. In the u. S. , the car market has been on fire. That is great for fiat because that gives them entry to that market. They bought out the company cheap, they got a great deal. It could be very lucrative. For fiat, a could be a very good story. There are mcraes micro stories which are very good. Looking at the flows around equity markets, you have been identifying how some money is shifting out of the court toward the periphery. This perhaps tying in with that. Stock up by 15 . Is that something you see continuing . More stories which are positive, we are going to see ratings upgrades for corporate in europe. We are going to see stories about growth returning. There will be stories about unemployment falling. As we start to see this positive news, that includes a kind of confidence in european companies. We will see more and a, more investment. The hedge funds we speak to in the u. S. Are turning much more positive about europe. What creates the upturn . Is that the u. S. Economic recovery picking everybody else up by their bootstraps . Or is it something the ecb is going to do that is going to kickstart things . Perhaps someseen of the data picking up at the periphery but from the core, not looking so impressive. That is very interesting. It looks like the periphery has been forced to restructure and become more competitive. They have taken terrible pain as a result. They have had to accept low wages and they have had this internal devaluation. Now they are in a much better position to be competitive in 2014 2015. The periphery will continue to improve. European stocks will play catch up where they havent quite delivered on expectations in 2013 . Perhaps they will do that . Some other strategists were selling up through the end of , the european markets are going to pick up and the u. S. Markets not so much. You think that would allow up further . I think the sectors look for things like banking because banking is going to have a high beat to the recovery. Things to look for our national champions. There are still some banks which have bad loans. As other ones we avoid. Those are the ones we avoid. Thatre just getting spanish december manufacturing pmi number at 50. 8. That was 48 point six in november, quite a turnaround in terms of moving into expansion territory. Lets move away from europe for a moment. You are into what is going on in china. This is one of the risks that could derail our confidence in 2014. I think one of the worries is that this credit bubble which they built up is going to pop. Obviously they dont have a democracy which is very good for them because they can roll by fake out. The banks are lending to each other. I could just call the bank and say, you will lend. They are going to manage this very carefully. What is worrying us is the level of debt. We have seen growth by Something Like 66 over 2. 5 years. Now it is one third of gdp. The have to roll it over and it is going to be very expensive to do that. There will be many bad loans. Theyre kind of invisible at the moment. You these local governments have to deal with this debt . Is this the kind of debt that the pressure will build and they will have to deal with it at some point or can they carry large amount of debt for a long period . I think what they are going to try to do is create these more transparent lending vehicles which are these long term old and loans which are like Municipal Bonds in the u. S. That will be a very positive thing. Manage to they engineer that, that would be very positive. Managing deleveraging is also very risky. There could be a blowup. It would be Something Like a lehman type default in china. It could have that significance . Where do you sit on the chinese growth story right now . Are people worried about what is going on in china because of the debt . Are they worried about tapering in the u. S. . Or is it more fundamental about the growth story coming out of these economies . Speaking to people in shanghai when i went there in the summer, they were very worried about political instability, whether these policies would be implement it properly, whether they could manage to achieve their growth targets which were very modest. Our forecast is still 7. 5 for next year. Unless there is a blowup in the credit bubble, we still think china is a good place to invest. Thank you very much for joining us, ramin nakisa. Bag for u. K. Xed retailers this holiday season. Find out who got a full stocking and who had to settle for a lump of coal. That is coming up on on the move. 8 20 here in london. We will be back after a short break. Welcome back to on the move. Here are some companies on the move this morning. South koreas two largest automakers are forecasting their weakest sales growth in eight years. Competition intensifies and the stronger won embers exports. The forecast comes days after hyundai and announced a change in the u. S. Where sales have slumped. Shares of samsung fell as much l ig today after investment cut its price target on lower earnings after 2014. Samsungs chairman is urging the company to move beyond its focus on hardware in order to maintain growth. India has scrapped a 753 million yield to buy helicopters for augusta western. A corruptionows investigation and indias Defense Ministry says it has them pointed appointed an arbitrator. It has been a mixed picture on the high street this business. Debenhams worrying the market with a profit warning and has announced today the departure of its cfo. Here with more, our European Business correspondent, caroline hyde. Was this move anticipated . Prior to new years eve, there had been speculation that the cfo might be leaving. Shares got a little bit of a push on it. A are climbing once again today. Relief that there will be a new person at the helm. We dont know who that person is. New entity will be acting as the interim cfo. Simon stepping down, no surprise when the numbers have just been so tortured. Warning that were going to see a deterioration, they have been slashing their prices in the runup to christmas up to 50 in terms of discounting. That is going to be hitting their margins. It didnt draw in the customers. Just a 1. 1 increase their. Sales at debenhams really shook the market across the board. They certainly did. People are asking questions about how much this was a debenhams specific story. Were getting more details on that with numbers from john lewis. It could be more of a specific story. John lewis came out with stellar numbers. Christmas sales up 7 . They saw what they call a manic monday, the 20 third of december, they were packed with lastminute shoppers. Online is where the growth is, up 23 . About a third of their christmas business. What i found depressing is that on christmas day, everyone took to the tablet and smartphones to go shopping on john lewis as well. John lewis really is outperforming. It is that combination of online and bricks and Mortar Stores that seems to be doing well for john lewis. They are doing pretty well. Where should we look . Is it the john lewis story, debenhams . We get a few more updates in the weeks to come. Indeed. January will be a fuller picture of who are the winners and the losers. John lewis numbers are early, but they say there is little doubt that this will emerge as one of the main winners from christmas. They have gained share across the board. Spell maybe not quite doom and gloom for the winners, but maybe those that did have to slash their prices will see their profits down. Caroline, thank you. Joins usjeremy stretch on the program for a currency chat. He tells us why he is bullish on the dollar for the 2014. Keep it right here. We are on the move. Welcome back to on the move. Lets get a quick check on the markets. 30 minutes and your trading day, lets see how things are shaping up. This is where the European Equity markets stand right now. We are little bit weaker in the london and paris market than the early futures had suggested. A little bit lower in the ftse 100, down by 0. 3 . The tax and the spanish ibex adding the best of the most upwards. One of the big stock movers in italy, in fiat. Lets have a quick look at the currencies. Euro dollar a little bit weaker this morning. That in the runup and in the midst of a number of updates on Manufacturing Trends coming through the european markets. We have had spanish december manufacturing pmi which came in at 50. 8. What a substantial turnaround but not enough to push the euro any higher this morning. We will get further thoughts on that in just a moment. These other Bloomberg Top headlines. Chinese manufacturing indexes fell in december. The purchasing manufacturers to 50. 5om hsbc fell from the previous month. A separate page declined to 51. Shares in china fell after the hsbc report. The British Government got more than 6000 Mortgage Applications during the first three months of it helped to buy program. That is occurring to the u. K. Prime minister David Camerons office. Mortgages totaling almost one billion pounds have been sought under the program. Jpmorgan has stopped clearing dollar transfers from the and lenders following probes into its lending. Latvia is a hub for cash and adopted the euro just yesterday. For more on latvia, lets bring in jonathan ferro. New members of the euro club. Another member. Number 18 now. I think that the question being asked now is why would anyone want to be part of the euro . Plenty of risk. The latvians themselves, half of them are against a joining the