Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20140403 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move April 3, 2014

It makes you just buy everything that much easier. It is locking you into the ecosystem. Is, ifncern for fire tv youre in europe you cant get it yet. It is only available in the and add dates. A couple of weeks . We dont have a date. Thank you. Lets get the berlin now. David, it is decision day at the ecb. Mario draghi, the president of the European Central bank, he appears to be drawing a consensus within the governing council to act against deflation once the European Central bank decides that it is not an absolute threat. He has the president of the bundesbank on his side. Talking about the possibility of quantitative easing, the possibility of negative Interest Rates. Thank you so much. That is our top story of the day. We will be following euro dollar. Manus, you are also watching just eat. Online ordering food from your tablet, any tablet. 260 pence. They are going to raise pretty much the money they wanted. It is a Business Model that works. It is the Biggest Online restaurant directory aggregator, whatever word you want to choose, in the world. They have a dominant position in the u. K. Je. Re waiting for ticket waiting for an opening price on that. There might be a little bit of a clamor. Were expecting it to open in around five to six minutes. Ecb, weof course the have a little news in terms of corporate scum amazon, Credit Suisse, big china story. Extra becauseng they are worried they wont hit that 7. 5 . They are going to be driving corporate sentiment. Building up the picture to what is going to come out from nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Christine lagarde says that you need something much more unconventional here in europe to drive the economy. China has gone for a little bit of a step forward towards building the fund for railways area railways. You have got a little bit of a discourse going on here. Lets look at the dax. It was the one future dipping on the open. It is Deutsche Bank. Deutsche bank has been down graded. Lets go straight to that. They have been cut to neutral from overweight at jpmorgan. There is concern about the amount of capital that Deutsche Bank has. That is possibly going to see another hit in the trading. The dividend also looks a little bit too rich for jpmorgan. Justies overall, the dax coming back to unchanged. A moderate opening. We wont belabor too long on Deutsche Bank. Another couple of companies. Credit suisse opens up 0. 1 . That doesnt give you a real price disclosure. Fourth quarter, they are going to restate their position. Theyre going to take additional tax provisions, the majority of which are for u. S. Tax probes. Fourthquarter loss. Brady dougan, brady gets a pay raise even though he missed return on equity. There you go. Kingfisher going after another acquisition in europe. This is europes largest Home Improvement company. Caroline hyde has that story. Deutsche bank was just down. You will see a bit more movement on that Credit Suisse stock through the day. I will talk to you a little bit more. 1. 3766. Lar, you have pmi a little later on today. What am i talking about . It is the ecb. Back to you. Manus cranny with the latest on the market. Joining us for more is the chief Investment Officer of rmg Wealth Management. He helps oversee 100 million of assets. Great to have you on the program. Give us a sense of china. This seems to me one of the biggest stories today. We have the ecb, the u. S. China is now stimulating the economy. They are starting to realize they could not hit that 7. 5 growth target. Seen is as we have slowing down much faster than they would have thought. What can they do about it . They had an investment binge the last six or seven years. Stimulus, just trying to keep growth above 7 . Are these worrying signs . It means they are not sure about that target. Before it seemed sure that they were going to hit that 75 7. 5 target. We have to say they will meet their target. In terms of the underlying story, we are worried that china is one of the bigger risks to Global Markets today. Essentially, a huge credit binge in the last number of years. Beginning toel is slow down more rapidly than anyone would have wanted. Not a sustainable solution. Seeing a few defaults coming in. A lot of Wealth Management and trust products maturing and q2, q3. Give me a sense of what youre doing to your portfolio. If this is a big problem, how do you safeguard yourself . We like to avoid defensive type assets. In terms of what could be tightening with the fed. There is a couple of ideas. Stuart richardson, thank you so much. We will talk a little more about the ecb and some of the financials after we hear from Credit Suisse this morning. Here is a look at what else is coming up. Credit suisse doubles down on Legal Provisions but gives brady dougan a pay rise. Just eat makes its debut on the london market. Are investors hungry . Is amazon taking a seat in your living room . Stay with us. We are on the move and we are just getting started. Welcome back. I am Francine Lacqua and london. This is the pulse on this is on the move on bloomberg television. This is a stock that is on the move. Just eat. We just had the price for the ipo set at the higher of the bandwidth. It is gaining some 9. 3 . , this is a french company. I am much or if we have the right graph on screen. Last sunday checked it was gaining but this was after kingfisher said it was interested in buying. Watch out for that stock. Credit suisse reported a net loss in the Fourth Quarter. For more, lets bring in manus cranny with the very latest. You talked about this very issue. I did indeed. This is some people in the market would say progressive in that reddit suites are dealing with the tax probe. It involves 1800 employees, brady dougan sitting in front of the senate committee. When they reported their fourthquarter results, he said, we are trying to make progress. In general, i think we have made Good Progress on that front. We have gotten a number of issues resolved. We have one of the larger issues still outstanding. We do feel like we have taken significant reserves during the course of the last couple years and made Good Progress. Also i think our profile in this area is a lot smaller than a number of other banks. It is hard to say. I do think that we are making Good Progress. Reserves, talks about what we are talking about is the tax investigations by my math coming out around 800 million. The Fourth Quarter gets restated into a loss. He mentioned the Mortgage Business provisions. That came in at 885 million. That was three or four weeks ago. This could be the year, 2014 is going to be the year of provisions and cleaning up, finally clearing off some of those big issues. Are we near the end of provisions . How do you benchmark it . You have a peer group at ubs. When they were trying to close off this thorn in their side, they paid 780 million. Million so far00 for Credit Suisse. 52,000 names. R that was the critical issue. What we are dealing with a Credit Suisse is 22,000 names. We wait to see what happens next. If we are going to benchmark what happened with ubs and Credit Suisse, we wait to see what the analysts have to say. It looks like it is coming in at the same kind of level as ubs. The ceote all of this, is getting a pretty good pay rise. He is indeed. A 26 pay rise. What is interesting is that he missed his targets. Return on equity, the target was around 11 . He had to get the cost income ratio down below 70 . Cost income ratio stands around 77 and his return on equity is just below where he wanted it to be at 10 . In terms of that, you can get a pay rise even if you just dont deliver on your benchmarks. 9. 7 9 million swiss francs. That is a pay rise of 26 . Employee, your bonus ballooned up by 6 . You work for the bank and you got a bonus that went up by 5. 6 . Hm. Manus cranny with the latest on Credit Suisse. Still with us is stuart richardson. In terms of the banks, a lot of investors try to pick up some of the periphery banks. This goes to show what we have from Credit Suisse, that we are not over with provisions yet. They have had the most enormous increase. We heard about 500 billion or more coming into europe from abroad. We have also seen an incredible rally and peripheral bonds. They have huge holdings in their bonds. Here, isof going from it a much more simple recovery story . We dont see enough growth in europe to really get the whole Banking System or European Capital markets generating excess returns. Ecb will come to the rescue and make the banks very wealthy. We will find out more today. Is no need for them to do anything quite yet. Europe is clearly ok. Do you see an opportunity in banks . We dont see an opportunity in european banks for shortterm trading. Here, where do we get the next bunch of investors coming in . This is across the board. German banks, u. K. Banks, swiss banks. Pretty much. It was always going to be a few potential stories out there. The whole asset quality review for banks that appear to be undervalued. We think the banks which have done reasonably well in the last , the easy money has been made. Thank you so much. Looking forward to the ecb policy decision today. President draghi is under pressure. It depends on whether they start doing qe anytime soon. David tweed joins us with the very latest. What are we expecting from the ecb today . With regard to Interest Rates, 0. 25 , 54 of the 57 economists surveyed by bloomberg expect absolutely no change. There is a robust debate out there at the moment. One side of this debate is saying that the ecb simply is not discharging its mandate, that mandate to keep prices below or near 2 . They have been closer to zero since november. The argument comes down to that latest figure, 0. 5 for inflation. One side arguing that this is an anomaly for several reasons including the fact that you are seeing core prices rising. If you strip out of that headline number fresh food and energy, you are left with that. On the other side, you have people saying if you see prices like this declining, then there is going to be concern that inflationary expectations will become unhinged. That is a big risk. We could be entering into a deflationary spiral. This will be important to listen up. The milliondollar question, will the ecb ever really do qe . Weidmann, the president of the bundesbank, has sort of opened the door to the possibility of quantitative easing. Is, we dontid want you to be buying sovereign bonds. Maybe you can be buying private assets. That is one thing they could potentially do. The second thing Jens Weidmann has given his attention to is the possibility of negative Interest Rates. That could actually help bring down the euro. These are two areas that Jens Weidmann seems to be moving towards, helping mario draghi build a consensus. Not many people are expecting him to act this meeting. That is why it is so controversial. Thank you, david tweed. Very quick comment on the ecb, you were saying that basically banks growth depends on what the ecb does. Are you expecting anything from mario draghi in the next couple of weeks . No, it is either the current we thinklation that he will pass on the opportunity today to do anything extraordinary. We should see a pickup in inflation next month. June he will give updates on projections. We think the earliest move is probably q3. It seems like they are moving that way. I think the problem, europe does suffer from more disinflation than the other major economies. We do have this sort of disinflationary force coming out of asia whether it be the japanese currency, china where there may be deflation and they have weakened their currency as well. One area which is at risk of disinflation is europe. At some point, they may well have to do something to try and kickstart things. And keep the euro lower. Thank you so much for all that, stewart richardson. Onto another top story, london still hungry for listings. Today, online Takeaway Service just eat again trading. Manus cranny is here to give us the breakdown. What will people be buying . A little bit of technology. They are buying into 36,000 restaurants that are signed up with these guys at just eat. It is a barnstormer of an opening. The institutions are the only people able to trade right now. It is all conditional trading. The stock flying, up 10 on the opening. Nearly 14 million shares changed hands in the first eight minutes. What you are getting your hands on is a company that i suppose takes advantage of the fact that we are lazy. We have a generation that dont know how to cook. We sit in front of our tvs. You generally have a samsung or ipad in front of you. You fancy order thing ordering something locally. They are absolutely on the mark. What is not to like . Coming up, amazon fire tv debuts. Will the spark catch with users . We find out after the break. Welcome back to on the move. I am Francine Lacqua in london. Amazon launches fire tv, the most anticipated that top vox. Apple the battle is with apple and recoup and paytv operators. Here with more is Caroline Hyde. What does the fire tv actually offer . It offers you for amazon the way to make you an addict. ,ou can get fire amazon fire tv up to 15,000 movies and tv shows, as long as you look into their prime instant video. They want you to get onto their plan for99 per month content that they have spent big on. They have exclusive rights to downtown addy, the new river street series. This is what they want to upgrade you on. You get netflix, hulu, more than 100 games. Familyfriendly games they seem to be. Certainly they want to woo you onto that. The big one is to get you onto amazon prime. To buy all your products from amazon. They are trying to beat out the competition such as apple tv. Really screams. I cant wait for you guys to try it out. Tvyou add it all up, fire has three times the performance and power of apple tv, roku, chromecast. This is a powerful device. For 99, you get a fire tv. With that, you get more power, content and more than 100 games. Pretty incredible. Who is this really going to hurt, apple or roku . Both. That is what everyone is going to be worried about. The smart tv makers. Roku, apple, they are at a similar price point. You have cheaper versions out by google. Chromecast offered for 35. A streaming stick from roku. The interesting thing is, how much will this hurt Cable Operators . Bskyb, comcast, verizon, will we just want all of our tv to be streamed . That is the big question. Already apple is doing a deal with comcast. Is that the future . It is worth a lot of money. Thank you, Caroline Hyde. As we had to break, we will have full coverage of the ecbs latest policy decision later on. That is what we will be talking after the break. Welcome back to on the move. I am Francine Lacqua at bloombergs European Headquarters in london. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. This is a picture for the overall market. Little changed. The ecbsawaiting Interest Rate decision. We have a couple moves in terms of our print. Lets dig deeper. Caroline hyde is at the touchscreen. Journalists love nothing more than a pond. We can go wild with just eat. Appetite, that lowering the shares, whatever you want to say. Shares are rising. Up 5. 2 . This is a Company Valued at 1. 5 billion pounds. Kingfisher also just gaining up about 1 . It is all about Home Improvement. M a in the air. They may be buying a french company, mr. Bricolage. Theyre offering an 11 premium. Renkaat, this is a tiremaker heavily exposed to russia. They say russia will drag them down. Shares off by almost 5 at the moment. Theyre operating profit and sales will fall this year because of russian weakness in the ruble and general weakness in the market. Thank you so much, Caroline Hyde with the latest market movers. These are the Bloomberg Top headlines. Asian stocks rose after china announced its stimulus policy. The Nations Capital meant will sell 24 billion worth of bonds to Fund Railways and housing. The stimulus includes bigger tax breaks for small businesses. There is a new warning from the imf managing director, christine lagarde. Russias standoff with the u. S. And europe over ukraine poses a threat to the global economy. Is for the program with ukraine to work. We hope that geopolitical tensions go away so that that country and its people can recover. Boosted chiefse executive brady dougans pay 26 last year. This as the bank missed targets on return on equity and cost to income ratios which are used to determine the majority of dougan s bonus. It is decision day for mario draghi. For a preview of what the Market Impact could be, i am now joined marketcohead of Global Research at goldman sachs. Welcome to the program. Always great to have your thoughts. Give me a sense of what you are expecting for the ecb. First of all, why should they ease today . I think the market is pretty mixed on this opportunity. Of st unsettling part the most Unsettling Development has been the fact that the expectations for fu

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