Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20140515 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move May 15, 2014

Hopefully soon they will be talking to us letting our fridge will be talking to us, letting us know when it has run out of milk. Do you want your fridge to tell you when youre out of milk if when your fridge starts talking to you, you had a long night, caroline. When im talking to the fridge, ive had a we have the g. D. P. Number numbers. You say it is historical. I still think there is a story there. The diverge ens between germany and everybody else. France give you absolutely nothing. Italy set to deliver. 2 growth. Can you call that growth . That is the ongoing story. I think the debate comes down to what is the next move or what is in the tool kit of the European Central bank. Lets cross over to david tweed. Youred a adidas headquarters. The m trying to draw parallel. There are lots of parallels. This is a company which has lots of employees outside germany. It is a major exporter but like the German Economy which did do better than expected in the First Quarter, there are many uncertainties just as there are the German Economy. What is going to happen in russia . Hasd itself a has adidas a big business in russia. The currency could continue to fall. There is a chinese slowdown. Ill be back to talk about that as well. Adidas, just like the German Economy. Manus . It is a big day in terms of the markets. 22 companies are reporting. What is your feeling on these markets . I think the big trading news is going to come out of the u. S. Janet yellen. If youre keen to stay up night, you can watch it or catch bloomberg. You get to these levels you pull back a little. These are not really any real big moves. Were pretty much dead flat across the eurozone. In europe, it is growth day or if youre france, no growth day. Zero percent from them. 8 from germany. What a divergeance . It continues. You have germany and everybody else. The euro jumped around a lit. At 1. 3714. Forget growth really. You get that headline number at 10 00 today. That is not a deal maker or deal breaker. When you get that rating on june 3, the big one, the e. C. B. Meeting and what they might do. What it is really loobt is the outlook for inflation. Nothing really changes today. It is e. C. B. Forecast on june 5 that will drive what happens outside the eurozone. Lets pick up some of the themes now with the head of Global Client group at deutsche assets and wealth management. Great to have you with us this morning. G. D. P. , everybody says is slightly retrospective. The key thing is what the European Central bank does next or potentially does next for us. What do you think they do . Well, i think we have had a little bit of a surprise last week with mario draghi announcing potentially something could happen in june. So that led us to revise our expectations about a june intervention. Probably no rate cut. Maybe other stimulus measures. Well see. Our punchline is when it comes to europe, we should really not be so afraid of deflation. I read that. The really smart money will tactically exploit hurt mentality of investors. Maybe im in the hurt. That is a fairly different line to other people that i have read. This year has really been if, you take a step back, first we were talking about the u. S. Market and about whether the weakness in the u. S. Was truly led by the weather effects. There was fear about that and then fear about the ukraine and russia and now the latest fear is deflation. We still see it hovering around. 9 to 1 . Is it fair to say then that fear is my friend . If you extrapolate what you just said to me, fear is my friend. Dips on markets. Were at record highs. We have come through record highs in the states. Sixyear highs in europe. If i get retracement, is that not an opportunity to reallocate cash . For sure. Because of the continue to be bumpy and any retracement continues to be a buying opportunity. A bumpy ride. The u. K. Is pumping along. Mark carney was at paines yesterday. What do you make of his performance . Are you inspired about rates remaining low through 2015 . Well, i think, yes, carney went out of his way, led say, to reassure the markets that rate rises are not impresent in and that led to many of our competitors and economists pushing forward the first rate hikes. I would think that on a personal basis, many of my clients feel same way, that they will start seeing some centers in the m. P. C. That is healthy, isnt it . It makes sense to have higher rates. Yes, but lets not forget the fact that the debt levels as a percentage of g. D. P. Are at all antime high. 2007. Sed eep highs of stay with me, dario. Were going to get into some of your big trends and thoughts when we come back after the break. Stay with us. Here is a look at whats coming up a little bit later in the show. For dixons. They are teaming up with carphone. Grinding comes to a halt. Inside adidas. We look at the technology that is giving the german giant that competitive edge. Stay with us because we are on the move. Im manus cranny in london and this is on the move streaming online, on your phone, on apple tv and new amazon fire testify. Dixons and Carphone Warehouse announced a merger. Caroline has the details. Dixonscarphone coming together in a merger to be called dixonscarphone. Combining expertise that Carphone Warehouse has been selling the new up to date tablets, the smart phones and with that combined with the scale of dixons. 12 billion pounds in sales per year when combined together and they are also promising investors cost cuts. 18 Million Pounds worth by 20172018. Clearly the company feels together they are stronger. Shares have been up for the whole of may. We have been hearing this merger is likely to be taking place. We get . Of t from dixons in terms sales. It outperforms, 5 growth in sales in the u. K. 2 in europe. He lag ert is greece, down 9 . They will each have a 50 stake in the combined unit. Back to you. Thanks for that roundup on the deal. It is g. D. P. Day as we have been saying through the morning and in germany, david tweed is taking a look at one of the countrys most Famous Companies, didas. I know it is an Amazing Technology site for us. What is it like . Give me a feel. You get the sense of energy being here actually. Im in this sort of Administrative Center at the moment where they have got their design is here. We came here a couple of months ago to film some of the packages that will be showing throughout this morning. There were plenty of places we were not allowed to go and shoot. They are all top secret. It is next years latest designs being worked on right now and maybe the year afterwards. I dont know how far they are looking ahead for this stuff. It was only opened a couple of years ago in 2011 and there is a whole block of history, a huge installation where you can go and see adidas history if you were lucky enough to be invited here. I was talking about the energy here. Everybody is informal here. Bear this in mind if you ever come here, the only people who ever turn up at adidas wearing a tie are journalists and job candidates who havent done their research. It is incredibly informal here. I feel comfortable, even with my tie on. Maybe i should take it a off. You have a lot coming up through the morning. Run me through what is on the agenda. Look, one of the things about adidas is a innovation. Im saying it very much similar to what goes on in german companies. The head of football oin vegas, you can catch that interview if youre interested. I thought it is very interesting. It is on the web. You can check that out. 10 10 london time, we will be speaking with the c. E. O. I want to ask him to tell us about this big launch they have been talking about going over to world cup. They are keeping that pretty much under wraps. Ive been trying to ask people here this morning. They are like we cant tell you. Maybe well get something out of the c. E. O. Later on. The three famous the ones that i think are the most famous boots. There is plenty to look at coming up, manus. Talk to me about adidas. How is that like the German Economy . Can we draw any similarities . I forgot that is why im here, isnt it . To talk about the German Economy. Adidas is really a little like the German Economy. It is a big exporter and the German Economy is an exportdriven economy. It has similar problems that are hang overing the German Economy. They had a strong First Quarter. Unexpected. Were going to see that moving into the second quarter. The things moving over, the things a the i. M. F. Has been talking about, Christine Lagarde in berlin this week. What is going to happen to the ruble . Problems with the ruble when it fell against the euro . What is going on with china . We have seen a slowdown in china. Latin america is coming. Obviously the world cup is coming up. Latin american curn s. I. Sis have been falling. It has an impact on any German Company doing business in these regions, which is why im here. Ill be speaking during the pulse to the c. E. O. Hopefully i think it is going to be quite an interesting interview. David, we look forward to that interview. David tweed there for us live at the adidas h. Q. Still with us for his views on todays market is the head of Global Clients at deutsche asset and wealth management. Before we get into the nuts and bolts of what the clients are telling you. Tell me what you make of this. This is bill gross. He is quite an opinionated guy. In terms of investment markets, we have a new neutral and the new neutral basically refers to the neutral policy rate going forward. That magical number, whenever it is, whatever janet yell and mr. Carney and others decide it should be in order to maintain 2 inflation and 2 to 3 real growth. The real neutral is that magical number that will drive markets going forward. And in the best it was difficult to hear. He was talking about inflation and that is what is going to drive markets. For you and your clients, what is driving markets . Where are the allegation going to . Where is the thinking . It is interesting. Bill gross interview last night. It is talking about Interest Rates and remaining low for longer and maybe 2014 will not be remembered as the end of the 30year bull market and the bond market. That is very interesting. To a certain extent, we do justify that. We continue to see flows in fixed income and lower rates for some reason. We have surprising Inflation Numbers yesterday from the u. S. Yet the traders rallied. Markets are short durations. Taking a look at some of your notes. Stable growth. Continued tapering is going to be the theme there. Everybody i talked to, were looking at slightly higher rates in terms of the mid part of the curve. What is your view . Yes. I think we have to differentiate between investor demand and looking for yields and the demand for return, some form of return and the movement into fixed income as we continue to see flows into fixed income, which are surprising, even for us. Then the fact that on a mediumterm baste basis maybe Interest Rates, are the return risk reward is not really so favorable anymore with Interest Rates at these levels. I think it is a question of timing. Ok. That is the fixed income side. Im just looking through some of the things that we have in the markets. Technology, m a, pharmaceuticalsened that debate about new social media tech. Out of those three what is your feeling . Is the m a story still to play in the pharmaceutical division . M a is a big driver this year, especially for a variety of reasons. We have heard about tax aversion. Interest rates are not playing very much into the m a spectrum. Ake for example, bayers purchase of merck. They could get a loan at 3 and refinance at 1. 5 . If youre playing maybe a little bit more on a multiple in sales, probably one or two time what is the average would have been, you can still make it. In terms of technology and information technology, you say you are still overweight on that. Is that on the enterprise side of the Technology Spectrum opposed to the consumer side . Yes. We continue to be constructive on technology because we see Companies Still hoarding cash and cap excould continue the drive. That will spill over. Despite we have had a little bit of a bumpy ride recently, we continue to be constructive. Probably even more controversial is healthcare on our side. Healthcare is labeled to be very expensive. We have looked we have a strategy that looks at real returns beyond accounting measures and if you look at that and you look at the cash return ratio and you look at the limited liabilities in the healthcare sector, they look to be an interesting sector. Contrary to tell kos which pear to be from a purity perspective cheap. Well have to leave it there. We have covered a lot of ground. Great to have you with me this morning. Come back and join me again. Thank you. Coming up, vivendi beats the estimates as the french media giant gets smaller and smaller. Will a new strategy do the trick . Well find out. Welcome back to on the move. Im manus cranny in london. We have been watching vivendi through the morning. The french media giant is a bit smaller as it releases its First Quarter earnings that beat estimates. They have been be refocusing, slimming down. Marie, run me through the numbers first of all because income up 20 at 161 million euros. Yes, manus. Good morning. Income is up this quarter and that is really what investors are going to be looking at. This is the First Quarter where they published their earnings as a Media Company after it got rid of about 30 billion dollars of assets over the past year. What these earnings show is really the income adjusted is up mostly thanks to lower cost of debt. That is because they used part of their proceeds from asset sales to pay back debt. That cheaper cost of debt is showing there in that income. There is some good news on their media assets. Part of that is on the pay tv unit which is showing it is able to win subscribers in the First Quarter. Talk me through this. They have sold off the s. F. R. That was a definitive end to the refocusing and now it is about the media. What is next . Is it about delivering results in the media space . The first step is closing the s. F. R. Deal. It is expected to close before the end of this year. That is not done yet. A regulator in france has to give an opinion about that before it can be done. Once that is done, vivendi said clearly this morning that they have financial red room to do acquisitions and grow the media part of the business going forward. The question is you know, whether vivendi is going to pick up m a again in the coming month and well know about that in june. There is a Shareholder Meeting through june 2424. For today, there is not much detail about what the strategy is going to be. Ok, marie. Lets see what they come out with. Still to come, bloombergs exclusive conversation with russias foreign minister. Lavrov. He says it is war were seeing in eastern ukraine. I believe this is as close to a civil war as you can get. You are very welcome back to on the move. I am manus cranny in london. We are 30 minutes into the trading day. Lets see how things are shaping up. We have managed to turn it around. Markets had opened lower. Stronger growth data from france, underwhelming stagnation would be the word in france. These markets have turned it around a little bit. Focusingor sick a little bit more on what comes from the European Central bank. First of all, the top headlines. Japans economy grew at the fastest pace since 2011 in the First Quarter as consumers and companies ramped up spending ahead of a planned sales tax increase. Gdp grew at an annualized 5. 9 from the previous quarter which exceeded forecasts of 4. 2 . Here in europe, frances economy recovery stalled in the First Quarter as tax increases by president hollande squeezed consumers. Gdp was unchanged compared to a 0. 2 gain in the previous quarter. Germanys economy grew more than forecast at a rate of 0. 8 . Comesne composite reading out at 10 00 a. M. London time. Russias foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says ukraine is sliding into civil war that will make it impossible to hold legitimate elections on may 25. The u. S. And eu say russia is behind the unrest in the eastern part of ukraine. Prorussian separatist groups were excluded from unity talks that started in the capital yesterday. In an exclusive interview we asked foreign minister lavrov about president putins recent comments about kiev and whether russia has any claim on the ukrainian capital. Have a listen to what he told ryan chilcote. Kiev is the mother of the russian cities. Russian language, russian religion, orthodox christianity was born in the territory of ukraine as it stands now and we do not consider ourselves foreign. America is different from the north american territory from traditions, from culture. We have been one nation for more than 300 years. Even before that, when they brought religion more than 1000 years ago. You raise a really good point. It is impossible to miss the psychological historical family feeling. President putin not long ago mentioned the term new russia, and in. Term that refers to what is and in. Term that refers to what is today ukraine. Does that give russia a right to lay claim to it. Said the return of medieval ages. , when you ask people in europe, where are you from . They say south europe. Do you feel some neoimperialistic intention in this answer . It is a historical term. Lets return to markets. The paneuropean gdp number comes out at 10 00. We are joined by the head of European Macro Credit Research. Always great to have you with me. I like what you said which is we are far too focused on markets markets are far too focused on the sugar rush w

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