Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20140924 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move September 24, 2014

Little bit higher,. 1 . German Business Confidence comes at 9 00 u. K. Time. Monthly fifth straight drop. Mario draghi promising to do whatever it takes. German businesses are not listening. Frenchainly not, but our businesses listening to their government . Well be digging in on air france, but one minute in, the tse trading flat. European stocks have fallen the most in 11 weeks. Why the panic, why the concern . Health care felt the heat, perhaps the u. S. Getting tough on the inversions, seeking out lower tax rates by companies in europe. Healthcare stocks were hurt and manufacturing yesterday was particularly weak. Growth with the initial pmi numbers. The sentiment starting to yesterday. S asia look stronger, but we have worthlmost 1 trillion wiped off Global Equity values since september 18 since the previous peak. Worry about the economies and geopolitics, the u. S. Acting with some arab allies to make airstrikes in syria. Ftse in the red, spain trading flat. We will get an opening on germany later, but we will look at the euro today. We have more signals of how europe is doing, we have the Business Sentiment in germany. Will it fall for a fifth straight month in terms of growth . Will we see growth to terry a ration will we see growth deterioration . Flat. Ro trading what is moving in terms of currencies is the yen and the kiwi, the new Zealand Dollar trading higher against the u. S. Dollar. The u. S. Dollar appears to be slightly overbought. Many feelings about what to do with the u. S. In terms of exports. The kiwi trading up. 4 , moves in the yen also against the dollar. A little bit of movement in the fx markets in terms of stocks. Lets dig in deeper, what stocks are on the move. Tnt express down almost 9 . Profit warnings cut. Tnt wanted to Purchase Express deliveries, ups did, and they gave us a profit warning. Competitive pressures are building. Deterioration, a provision for the third quarter, off almost 9 . Rbs off by half a percent. Initial share sales set to be the biggest since Goldman Sachs in 1999. I cannot get it for the price they marketed it at. 23. 50. To accept. Hey are selling a stake air france rising amid all this confusion, john. The government saying one thing, the company saying the other. The company is saying, no, its premature to say we are backing away from that discount unit, trend savior, while the transport commissioner has said we can put it into that project and we will have to dig deeper to find out what is happening in air france. The stock is rising on the back of it. What is going on with air france . 1. 6 , pretty much flat across europe, so lets get to the perspective on these. Arkets with james bevan james, look at a air france story. Lets talk about corporate france. The transport minister revealing Corporate Strategy that air france does not even know about. Who runs france . That is a worrying question. The french political agenda has essentially put a material break on inward investment. The French Economy is softening as a result. If one thinks about the way about the eurozone problems, we need governments and moneys just as in 2000. Realistically, france is the only government that could do that. The fundamental problem remains that europe has a partial fiscal union, partial banking union, no political union. It seems politics continues to get in the way of everything. They sits, and tell down and get on the agenda and have the same storyboard, we will never see a resolution of the problems in the euro zone. What does it mean for markets . The bottom markets are not pricing into this . Good Quality Companies in contrast, offering higher yields and lower credit spreads. For me, equities are the right place to be. What underpins that for you, james . Corporate earnings remain robust, Balance Sheets are healthy in many instances, Free Cash Flow a dividend yields are high and likely to get higher, and a climate with uncertainty about Companies Falling with falling prices. I think there are a good number of Companies Like novartis, like art newsgroup, like exxon mobil, all companies that have demonstrated they can make profits irrespective of the environments they are operating in. Draghi, the ecb president , said he would do whatever it takes. Cut through the noise, what does that mean . He is trying very hard. Companies have tried hard themselves. We have seen falling prices reported in the surveys. A half yearsn without any material acceleration of demand, and we are still facing a Consumer Sector troubled by debt and also will most and also almost no wage inflation. Stays with us. Stocks on the move, air france gets its signals crossed. The french transport minister says they have scrapped their plans for the lowcost carrier. The comments go against what air france says. They say that is premature and the stock goes higher. Were also watching rbs. The ipo less than what they wanted, their stock down. 4 . Welcome back to on the move. Im jonathan ferro. Ipos, rocket internet has almost doubled the amount they are seeking in Public Offering. They are now targeting 1. 4 billion euros. They could become germanys largest Public Offering this year. Hans nichols has more on the story from berlin. What is behind the increase, more appetite . Rocket oncetite or more cash to go on a shopping spree, which i mean investment, which is international shopping. This is a company that eventually other companies will compete with, also the amazons of the world. Theyillion euros is what initially wanted. Now they are bringing that up to 1. 4 billion euros. Billion. 1. 8 for the share price, we are euros. At 35 to 42 october 7 is the listing in frankfurt. This is a company that is a portfolio company. They have a lot of different companies. They help start, incubate. The criticism, and im not sure its fair, but criticism is that rocket just does clones. They take a popular model in the states, a successful model, and replicated either in germany or other markets. A little bit of a counter argument on that is its difficult to do. Yes, you can make the clone argument, but understanding local markets is very difficult. They have taken these companies beyond. They have grown and they understand the local markets, and that is very hard to do. Lets talk a little about how alibaba plays into this. And monster ipo. How does that affect the german ones . One of two ways. One, they will be able to blow them out of the water. World arebas of the so big and powerful that the small Companies Like rocket will not be able to compete. The other argument is we are at the beginning of a massive splurge, a massive spending spree and investors who were so hungry to get a piece of alibaba what have a similar type of appetite on the frankfurt exchange. That could be an indicator of how well rocket will do. John, i know you like frankfurt for the ecb. I think you should come to the exchange. We can talk about the stock in person and see how big the appetite is. John . Hans, i just dont like the airport. Love the city, love the people, hate the airport. They have done their ipo, raised 3 billion. A range of 23 to 25, and a prices at 21. 50. What are we getting good news for rbs . I think it will be a long recovery story. It doesnt mean i have a Real Advantage if you want to contrast it with barclays. Barclays has Human Digital advantage. They have the high street players in the u. K. , which has to be the key. Lets talk about barclays. Im amazed the share price went down 1 on a day when they said this is a company with billiong revenues of 27 , three point 5 billion stashed in their back pocket against mitigation, and they trade only. 7 tangible net asset value. Morenk the market has a optimistic view. Is it really about the number or the behavior of the bank . The stock is down 15 year to date. Doesnt speak to some competency within that bank . There is a backlog of problems. Fine wasesterday, the a 30 discount on what the fine would have been because barclays recognize the problem, sought it out, told the regulator, and the regular said, thats fine, you have to pay this, but it was a big problem. 2012,oes back to 2007 to so that is prehistory in terms of the current management strategy. I think their digital competency means they have a head and shoulders head start in building a longterm profit growth. Optimistic about barclays. What a week for supermarkets. They have been absolutely crushed. Tesco deliver their third profit warning, and the numbers are not pretty. Eaten away atly market share when the market itself is verily barely growing. Tesco down 50 this year, morrison down 30 . When are you a buyer . Lets talk about the real challenge is tesco faces. One is revenue. We know last year they made about 63 billion in revenues. Is 61ear the expectation billion. That is a big hit to the revenue line, but its not just a revenue problem, it is also a margin problem. The margin will fall from 5 t o 3. 5 , and the expectation is that trend is continuing down. They will have to lower prices, hoping the influx of revenue compensates for the hit to the margin. They just have to come to the table and admit they have 2 billion less and they have to shore up their Balance Sheets to make sure they are reasonably credit worthy. The price at which it is a Bargain Basement is 170, still a lot lower than current share prices, but they could get to that price quite easily because of discounting cash flow based on conservative assumptions about revenues and margins. Talking about a rights issue on the back of this financial mess. I dont think its a rights issue, and because he would want to buy the shares . Have we seen anything like this before . Absolutely, three years ago, problems in brazil, their domestic market. They have slimmeddown. Tesco has a reasonably successful asian business, margin about 6 , much more successful in terms of margin than the u. K. The Eastern European business appears to be underperforming. Those are candidates they could realize. Market positioning within this market, they are not little. They have a huge real estate portfolio, about as nimble as a tank. When people Start Talking about tesco repositioning, be realistic, how likely is it that tesco can reposition . Real estate is a huge issue. They have about 20 billion of real estate in terms of value. They cannot simply just get up and leave. What do they do . They have to focus on lowering prices. They have to compete more aggressively. Also, they have to revive the proposition to the customer who will say, i want to shop there. People are not choosing to drive to tesco. Not only are they lured by by the prospect of lower pricing, but a better quality proposition. You are a buyer at 175 . 170. James benton will be back when Tesco James Benton will be back when tesco gets down to 170. I dont think they will have time to do anything other than put together a quick statement to say he is working on it. I think well have to wait until next april, at which time i think you will kitchen sink it. James bevan says there will be no kitchen sink. As we head to the break, a quick check on european equities. We opened flat. Right now, the ftse 100 barely flat. Talk aboutce we will airlines, air france, the transportation minister says air isnces lowcost carrier grounded for good, but airline says they are not so sure. Details next. Welcome back to on the move. Move thisnies on the morning, shares of citizens financial begin trading in the u. S. After pricing below the market range. The rbs subsidiary priced at 21 50 cents per share. The range on offer was 23 to 25. Fined 77as been million by u. S. And u. K. Regulators. Their wealthms management business charge commissions without client approval. Paying 62 million to the u. K. After failing to properly protect client assets. Amazon workers in germany have extended a strike to a fit Warehouse Distribution center. Theyre protesting over wages and work conditions since monday. The strike is scheduled to end later today. For one strike to another, air france will scrap its lowcost carrier plans, says the french transport minister. Meanwhile, the airline says the comments were premature. It has to do with the pilots strike that has been going on since lets monday. For more, were are joined by kerry lindgren. What on earth is going on . Back and forth. The transport ministry on the one side sing the whole plan to develop a discount unit beyond france in the netherlands, they have scrapped it. Then from the airline we are hearing, no, this is a premature statement. They offered monday to delay an expansion of this unit. You have to wonder if the government is losing confidence a little bit in the ceo and are trying to put pressure on him to speed things along. Who runs this company . Is it the government, the pilots, or the ceo . I think the ceo is frustrated at this point, in this issue of the discount unit, it is a tough situation for him. On the one hand, if he climbs down from this and says scrapped the plan, he is climbing down from what the pilots want. Also, the other thing thats going on as he cannot really compete against easyjet, ryanair, all the other airlines if they do not develop a discount division. He is caught between a rock and a hard place. Hear this noise from the government, from the pilots, they are not going to be able to expand this unit, are they . It sounds its premature to say. Cap the sea with the Airline Comes up with. Its very tough situation, playing right into the hands of airlines like easyjet and ryanair. Easyjet has been focusing on paris. If youre a business traveler, looking to fly on air france or hectored passionately flown on air france, are you booking on easyjet . Theyre not too bad, they are on time, they are not striking, maybe we will do it again. It looks like easyjet and ryanair are the winners. What does this mean for air france Going Forward . If they cannot compete with the likes of ryanair and easyjet, which both want to target the business traveler, what is left for them . You have different models. British airways has focused on hub,oping the unit for the and then they have the Discount Airline they bought. Actually bought a hold Lowcost Airline to make this work. You have air france sorry, german wings and left gonzo trying to develop and moved luftehansa trying to develop this, which is what air france has been trying to do, ufthanza has had better luck with it. Markets,ng on the bond the italian tenure is up, the banishedces this tenure is up. We will talk Economic Policy and risk with morris cramer. Meantime, follow me on twitter. We will be back in two. Stay tuned. Welcome back to on the move. Im jonathan ferro. Dirty minutes into the trading open. E have a low woer flat, the dax lower, german confidence dropping. German businesses are not listening, are they, mark barton . 9. 2 , theress is down biggest decline or on the stox x 600, they will not reach their 2016 guidance. They have made a provision of 50 billion euros. They are speeding up its investment program, overall trading conditions in europe, the biggest fall or, the biggest decline for the dutch logistics january. Ince what is happening with air france . Shares are out. 8 . The transport minister of france suggested they would scrap their decision to expand the discount unit to quell the worst pilots strike since 1998. Air france says the comments were premature and negotiations have not changed to suggest the plan has been dropped. Shares are up. 9 percent, confusion reigns in france. Citizens financial group, which sold shares yesterday for the first time, the subsidiary of royal bank of scotland, they raised 3 billion in their ipo. Pricing the shares below the range. D rbs shares down 1 , falling three consecutive days. They have lost 2. 5 in that time. The ipo allows rbs to boost capital as they adjust to rules and recoup from the biggest bank bailout during the financial crisis. 75 of citizens. That offering was the secondbiggest u. S. Ipo. Rbs down, air france up, confusion and france. No confusion with tnt express, is there. Stocks lower across the board. The top headlines the pentagon says u. S. Led airstrikes attacked a militant group that was planning an imminent attack on the west. The group is described as being made up of al qaeda veterans, separate from the islamic state. The u. S. Is more bombing raids in syria can be expected. Nato says that russia is beginning a significant withdrawal of forces from the ukraine. The latest sign that tensions between kiev and moscow may be lasting. No shots have been fired since september 22. Just two days. As of amounts of supplies are till needed in liberia, sierra leone, and new guinea. They are fighting ebola. They spoke about the virus. With the issue commitment of the World Population and the government of ebola. , we will contain economists are forecasting the german Business Confidence index will fall. That is after manufacturing expanded at the slowest rate in over a year, leaving it at the lowest level since june 2013. The report is due at the top of the hour. Over the last year we have talked about the rise of socalled antieuropean parties, whether greece or france. Owning the, headlines. The surge of a german equivalent could complicate policies for much of the eurozone, according to the head of sovereign ratings at standard poors. Talk to me about this. You have not heard this because its a new phenomenon. The party was formed in the spring of last year. It very narrowly did not make it into the general elections, into the lower house. There has been a stream of victories of Regional Elections in germany, which is really propelled it into the attention outside of germany. The fact you have not talked much about it so far probably has to do with the relatively recent birth of this movement, this party. For some people, they are worried about how quickly this party has gained momentum. The biggest question, something youre been looking at, what this means for euros on

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