Look at the turnaround in the japanese yen. We saw a sudden weakening, it was strengthening earlier today. Now the japanese yen is weakening versus the dollar. The dollar gaining. Overall the dollar is down against most of its tears today peers today. Everyone is wondering if we will see a fed rate hike come september. We folks are wondering will work what we see it start as soon as this month . The fat the dollar is weakening, many feel the china data means they cannot go so quickly. Dollar up by 0. 3 . Oil also trading lower. Some of the the to six regarding chinese some of the statistics regarding oil are surprising. Slowing demand for fuel really affecting wti. Copper managing to trade higher. Yesterday it got a pop from the fact that glencore will be reducing its output in africa. It is all about insurance. The Japanese Company i do not amlin. Amlin yet to open, but we are expecting it to search. Byy are being offered insurance, 3. 5 billion pounds. We would like to see them search at the open, but look out for competitors. The consolidation is double where we were this time last year. Because of the pricing pressure we are seeing getting hedge funds in on the action as well. Look at the insurance factor up 0. 5 . Getting some more details on the structure of their deal. They come out on top, paddy power. It will be the biggest traded company in gaming in the world. Power. Ed by paddy theyre not getting the nice little dividend that paddy power well. Is the cost of coffee and the loads of brands that this company owns and not doing as well as had been hoped today. Three minutes into the session, the ftse 100 into the green. I will bring you the opening price for amlin in a moment. A 36 and him pay for. To tradek expecting near that premium. Ahn issecond half, shery there in hong kong to break it down. Shery ahn it finally happened again. Chinese stocks surging in Late Afternoon trading. There has been speculation that the authorities would prop our markets. We have seen these Late Afternoon surges. From the lowest point to the highest point, this is a surge of more than 5 . All of this despite week trade data, having to growth in concerns and export decline. Imports frank 14 . K 14 . Orts shran those who did not see the upsurge after the shanghai composite rally, the nikkei erasing all of this years gains. 2. 4 in the morning session and falling to the lowest level since february. We are seeing asian shares plunging still and declining and extending those weeks of consecutive losses. We have some gains in the session. Asf rising 200. After a producer made a multimillion dollar takeover bid. Stocks in new zealand rallying 7 10 of a percent, because we expected to rally 2. 5 when it meets later on thursday. Jon thank you for breaking down market moves in asia. The chinese data drag worsening in the month of august. Exports down by more than 6 . Down by more than 14 . Lets get to beijing where we are joined by the Bloomberg Intelligence chiefs chief asia economist and the managing director at how hong. Break down the importance of both of these figures today. Exportsplunging and down, which would you pick as the more concerning data point. Neither of them are particularly positive. Exports are shrinking. What that speaks to is that fading international competitiveness. The export products not standing up in terms of the price. If you look at the import numbers, that overstates the weakness. The prices of oil, iron ore and lots of the big commodities that china has been purchasing are dropping. That has a negative impact on the headline import number. Even so, if you start to see past that process, the purchases of iron ore and copper are also starting to drop below trend. We get acally, when bad data point, we talk about the policy response. You have to say that policy measures have not been exhaustive given where rates are right now. Reached the point of diminishing returns as far as what the government and pboc can do next . I think one of the puzzles in 2015 has been how slow the government stimulus has been to gain traction. We have seen several moves on Interest Rates, moves on the reserve requirement ratio, substantial fiscal stimulus. None of this has started to prop up growth as aggressively as we might hope. Even so, i think that one of the reasons why pessimism on the chinese economy is overdone is government china retains enormous policy space. That is a contrast to the western economies where Interest Rates are on the zero bound in the room for fiscal space is exhausted. China can still run a more aggressive fiscal stimulus. Opened thethey have possibility of the yuan depreciating as well. Weak butmbers are china still has significant room to do so been about it. Jon thank you for breaking that down. I what to bring you into the conversation. When you look into the trade data, what we used to get good traded up we would say, things must be bad, that cant be right. When we get bad data, we say things must be really bad. When you look at the trade data from china, did it tell you anything you dont already know . Everybody has been looking for weak trade data. The weakening currency effect on export growth has not come in for the month of august. The currency continues to focusing a little bit on export growth. Balance isade slightly larger than expected. So that will translate to a larger than expected trade balance. So if your is any surprise initially that was the reaction in the first half of training and then we saw this phantom bounce, the invisible hand guiding stocks higher. That tells me that this process has not been complete and if that is intervention than someone feels the need to intervene. Would that be your read as well . If you look at the biggest mover in the afternoon session it was the banks. Some of the larger brokers and insurance companies. Are largely controlled controlled by the National Team. So every day you would see some buying from the National Team into the market which helped support the market into the clothing. China, thet that in market trades on a three plus one basis there it they tend to invite some sort of pressure on the road. Market has been substantially on its own. It makes it very difficult to trade. What would make you a buyer of chinese equities at this point . If it could be cheaper. Much of the bad news has been priced in and also the weakening has been priced in. It will improve the Investment Outlook on the investment market. The reserve data, 90 4 billion spent in a month to support the currency. How do you support those moves with the plunging currency as well . I think that after the , the regulators probably got surprised by how negative the Chinese Market was. We have been popping up the chinese share in spite of weakening market depreciation. We immediately fear a substantial weakening in the overseas market. That is telling me that the market is expecting a depreciation while the regulators are probably a little bit surprised by the reaction in china. I think we could depreciate again. , youbly by five to 10 would help out export growth. Cuts in rrr cuts. So, if things keep going this rememberer that that we lost about 100 million u. S. Dollars in forex reserve. The depreciation really happened after the 11th of august. 2. 5 weeks of depreciation and we already lost that much forex reserve. If we have a strong r and b that will put further pressure on the forex reserve management. Jon we will have to leave it there. Discussioneep the where we left it. Elcome to the show, bill have we got a handle on the fx reserves deco reserves . Miserable facts and figures and than the market goes up. That makes perfect sense. We have to look at the whole picture in china. Some very poor figures coming up. We heard that the bank of china was saying at the weekend, after the g 20 meeting that they are targeting 7 growth. Have an economy that suffered a property bubble. Think it is discussed often enough. You have to wonder, how is china going to get through this transition phase to bring a consumer economy without more disappointment on the growth side. That has massive applications for everybody else. In the last few days people have been downplaying the effect of slowdown in chinese demand, adding aggregate demand across the economy. Look at some of the investment banks at 0. 2 or 0. 1 effect on the u. S. , but it is clear that the reason the Global Economy is in a downshift mode is because of concerns raised over china. To get that in your head, you need to look at china. And you look at china and you say there is no way these guys will keep 7 growth. Jon in 2012 we were not talking about china, but europe. The consensus view is that it is an ugly place and bad things would happen. And china, we are not quite at the point of 2012 in europe, but are we underestimate the positive response from chinese policymakers in the same way a lot of people did in 2012 for europe . I think that is a fair point. One of the critical points is that at some stage china does reach a balance. We know and have always suspected that chinese numbers are somewhat massaged. To put it mildly. I think people will take a clear view and they will look for the right time to get back in. Then the problem is when do you dive into an economy that everyone is reassessing in terms of the way it operates to up until now, everyone has been very positive about the experience of the bank of china, the expertise of chinese regulators and suddenly, that confidence has been quite heavily shaken by the last three months and the last two in particular. As a result i think it will be more difficult for people to persuade themselves to reengage at some stage. It is clearly a problem that will be magnified by the crisis we are going to have went dollar rates hike. That is your question for how big are chinas reserves. I think it is not a simple question of victor moments to jump back into it of pick your moments to jump back into china. It is about, am i going to jump back in . Taking interview what you have learned of their economy. Jon contraction revised. Japans economy slowed less than estimated. We will bring the lest bad news from the worlds thirdlargest economy. Then germany will present a draft of their 2016 spending plan. Your problem. We will tell you why. Bank thinks the west should not be too concerned about the wests slowdown. The chinese insurer goes after amblin. A 36 premium. Share 6. 70 per share. We are back in two true. Jon welcome back. Thelatest gdp data shows strength grew less than expected. , is this a positive surprise . What was behind it . I think that it just speaks to the dire state of the Global Economy when it is considered an upside surprise when the japanese economy is a bit less bad in the second quarter. The important thing to keep in mind is usually these gdp reports are ancient history of the time they come out but this time especially because it happened before stock markets around the world crashed. The nikkei today has lost its gains for the year so that has not yet filtered into the japanese consumer or businesses. You have to look at these numbers and say how about the Third Quarter . Veryi want to move it on quickly and go to caroline hyde. Corporate japan opening its wallet again, what is the story . Caroline the insurance splashing the cash. Amblin shares are rising to a record high this morning. Belooks like they will splashing some 3. 5 billion pounds. What does that mean in terms of premium . 36 . This is a lloyds of london insurer being snapped up. They say it will accelerate the international business. They wanted to globally expand because of the slowdown in asia. Lets see what is really behind the steel. Why the International Expansion and why the flurry of deals . It is more than double what we saw last year. The trend is phenomenal. Asian insurers are buying abroad Getting International and getting into the likes of the u. K. Market. We have seen not one but two in the last few months. Both have bought out u. S. Companies. Going for the expansion abroad with an influx into the reassurance sector is suddenly driving down the prices that can be charged for reinsurance and insurance. That is white forcing the likes that is why you are seeing the likes of amblin being stepped up. Just think, x l recently getting it with capping group. This is a trend that we are seeing worldwide. Previously, they said it wasnt a sale just two weeks ago, the chief executive saying not for sale. Dampening that expectation when he released those numbers. He said we are not running a sales trust us. Two weeks later they are bought with the full directing of the board. Why is it a good deal . Because profits have been under pressure before. We saw in those two weeks profit down 4. 5 . Andolidation is the trend japan getting out there and snapping up u. K. Companies. Jon very interesting that corporate japan opens its wallet with dollar yen at one point 20 but not 1. 80. Not 1. 80. Ut japan opening its wallet finally, does more to anything from here . Trillions 100 billion multitrillion yen question. We have heard about abenomics and where has the economy gone . It makes perfect sense for a successful Japanese Company doing very well to look to expand outside japan because the prospects dont really look that much better than they have been over their 20 wasted years before abenomics. Jon is that the story . It is also a question of demographics as well. They need to get out of their own market and the asian markets are slowing. Looking for insurers and the occidental countries is a perfect strategy. Jon so the idea that more is always the answer. Do we move to a point where more is not always the answer . This might be different economic thinking that maybe money needs a price. This is where we start to talk about what will happen to global Interest Rates. We have the whole economy and nowhere mode. But corporate going out and borrowing enormous amount of money what have they done . Stock buybacks and put money in Pension Funds. They have not gone and built new factories and created jobs. If you do that, you expect to get a return, but when Interest Rates are zero, that ensures that returns will be close to 0 . So they are just taking up the boots by sorting out the stock price which is great for ceos. Higher stock price, bigger bonus. But when nobody when money has no value, nobody bothers to invest. But i dont think that a 20 point basis point fed hike is going to change the ability of alternate doors to go out and entrope. If that is the right word. Jon we are back and 10. Jon welcome back to on the move. I am Jonathan Ferro here in the city of london. Here is what the equity market session looks like this morning. The stock 600 pushing higher. The ftse 100 up by 1. 08 . By the to 25 down nikkei 225 down by 2. 43 . Quicklyp the board there is one currency pair i want to take a look at. Eurodollar, 1. 1178. We came close to the 1. 1273 we were at just before the ecb president mario draghi started speaking. That plunge the most completely erased the euro rally at the beginning of this week. Healed, we10 year will be talking about german bonds in a moment. Down 3. 3 . Ti crude a lot of market moves to talk about and stock moves. That deal coming over from corporate japan to snap up amblin to the tune of a 36 rhenium snatching 3. 5 billion pounds. Premium snatching 3. 5 billion group and the independent companies that can be seen as a potential target getting in from this massive deal coming over from japan. Lets have a look at some of the downward falling. There are not many today. Every Single EnergyGroup Trading higher but whitbread have disappointed. There like for like sales not doing so well. Up 4. 3 buttually the estimate had been for 5. 2 . Pulling back on their expansion plans. The worst performer is french tv. The finance minister waving in and driving down from the chair. Performer,he worst down by 6 . Based on a consideration of the french government to reintroduce stateowned ads. What would that do for the finances of those currently held by the public shares . That would be the dampening effect on the nonstate owned coveney today. Nonstate owned company today. Germanysis ahead of draft budget do to be announced and under half an hour. Hans nichols has more. The trade data out of germany talk to me about that. Pretty resilient. Hans it is remarkably resilient. It came in 2. 4 higher. Imports at 2. 2 higher. It wasnt like the German Economy was all export driven but they outpaced imports. That gets you to a trade in balance of 25 billion euros for the year. The expectation was 23. 5 billion. Germany is figuring out countries to export to in a soft july environment. It was soft because of the greece capital controls but it does not look like it affected germany. Ago we had quantitative easing but now it looks like germany is the biggest beneficiary of all of this. One thing that we are seeing in germany they were costs are increasing, up 3. 2 . Longterm, it will be hard to remain this competitive with their exports if labor costs continue to rise. We see a side of that story where they try to tempt down their labor costs. Its pretty competitive, but how much longer will it last . Jon the draft budget we are there is a budget that german people would like to see and the rest of europe would like to see. Im guessing that we get the former and not the letter. Hans we get something that is very balanced. Mr. Schaeuble and madam merkel have been very clear that they want a balanced budget. They will have to have some contingency spending for refugees. The number for 2016 is an additional 6 billion at the federal level. In germany it doesnt have the same tom at circumstance as a budget day in the u. K. It will still give an indication of where the priorities are. For the German Economy that feels like it has weathered a lot of economic storms but now has this refugee crisis that it has to reconcile. Jon thank you for breaking that down. Lets welcome back bill blaine, reimagining the german budget that they will get and what the german people want that the rest of the eurozone once. Is this going to be considered among the economic historians is one of the greatest missed opportunities for the German Economy . That is an interesting question. If should they go out and borrow loads of money and build loads of infrastructure. Jon that they need. They have a better trade system t