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BLOOMBERG On The Move October 9, 2015

We have seen a complete rally, just an opportunity and in large part this is in some ways been help by auto prices. There really feeding into the stock momentum. Theyre trading in the u. S. , why . Because they all think janet yellen will not pull the trigger in 2015. The federal minutes adding fuel to that fire. See ath 40 of we will rate hike this year. About a frenzy on a friday. Signing a letter of intent with businesses to raise its ownership in mrn, this could be raising by 40 . Out for the Stock Performance drop the day. This is increasing exposure to aluminum. Anteresting movie we saw alco missa shares and after hours. This Country Company is getting into a commodity. Of the on the back danish Trucking Company slashing their cash. Their spending 1. 3 5 billion per share. Is selling a temper sent the ipo as it goes ever closer. Thank you. We might wrap up a big week on a bit of a hive. The dax is up almost one full percentage point. A big today gain over in china. Lets get to shery in hong kong. Shery asian stocks are heading for the best we can almost four years. It is the best week gives it almost two months. There is speculation that the fed is in a hurry to raise rates, on top of that investors are thinking the Chinese Government may do more to boost the economy. Still has an hour to go. Theyre reversing yesterdays losses. The nikkei rose despite their retail plunging after they missed earnings estimates. We also saw the asx 100 gaining 1. 3 lead by those Energy Stocks higher because of oil extending gains. Korea and taiwan close. Malaysia more than 1 , theyre one of those take asian energy exporters. Net the buyers in equities, in equities buying 19 million this month alone after dumping 3. 5 billion in september. More demand for local assets, we are seeing the indian currency heading for a second weekly gain. We are seeing malaysia and heading forrrency the best week in over a decade. Jonathan thank you very much. A huge week for miners and energy. Here is what is happening in todays a show. Federal delay. When will the fed run out of excuses . Grexit, a kind of messy departure. Sorry, but that apology could come to 20 billion euros. Federal reserve minutes show a delay increasing risk rates. When will the fed run out of excuses. The fed is not in charge of making sure investors make money, theyre making sure thes Financial Stability is in short. That is the concern. They look pretty good for the majority of the committee that they will continue to grow at some point this year. Our guess is december. It will have an impact on the dollar, but the fed hasnt placed a lot of weight of the impact of foreign policy. The exact timing of the move is not decisive for the bank of england. We will take our responsibility and will determine the timing for the start of the process of Monetary Policy normalization consistent with the u. K. I am in favor, as soon as it is possible to normalize what we do with Monetary Policy. Us, but is ahead of lets not postpone it. It is the right time. The fact is, americas recovery is anemic. I think they did the right thing. Jonathan lets could the investors take now, were joined by michael metcalf. Michael, great to have you with us. I am waiting for the fed minutes. How close were they to hiking . It seems they werent that close at all. Michael it is slightly confusing, i personally thought they would go in september. After froms we got the fed to suggest that it was a close call. I think markets were prepped for that last night. The minutes were more or less exactly what the yellen said in the press conference, that they werent that close them are putting former weight on the international situation. Jonathan put this together with that ugly payroll support on friday and this explosion not about rate hikes but about more stimulus, i have to thank my colleague in the united states, overlaid with the amount of times qe4 gets mentioned. This chart almost a perfect correlation. Look at that come every time markets a swing people Start Talking about qe4. Shows bernanke mentioned it, there was a problem here where Central Banks look like the whole market. Whenever there is market volatility people assume the reflection trade. This great rally weve had in risk assets is a inflation trade. Their expectations there are expectations. They better deliver, markets are very sensitive. They are so sensitive. Mandate . Is it a on the labor market, and ugly payroll report, but unemployment is still low. Is it still a green light coming from the labor market . Michael i think the revisions of a payroll report for a surprise, the fed has been clear. They say look at a range of indicators. It captures a whole range of market indicators. That is still improving. Maybe that payroll report was a bit of a blip. It is corroborating evidence that is why it has been meaningful. In general, the market is pretty good. They have improved more than expected this year. That is it, it is up 5 . That is clear. Question, it final needs to be about inflation. That should have perhaps the biggest importance. We did an interview with Stanley Fischer a couple of months ago who set up we have a soul mandate we would be thinking about doing more at this point. When you look at the inflation dynamic, the amount of time they mention the dollar in the , that concern about inflation not just here and now. Michael they are concerned. We have an interesting view of inflation through online prices that we collect. There was some Interesting Research done on that that suggests that headline inflation is euro, but if you take energy and the impact of the dollar, it is 2 annual. There is no problem with core inflation in the u. S. Jonathan that is a question for the bond market. I will give you that question after the break. Up next, domestic grexit of pimco, more on the lawsuit against the company he cofounded after the break. Jonathan here are bloombergs top stories. Swagen says changing all the affected vehicles could take years. The company did not make a corporate decision, claiming it was done by a few engineers in germany. On behalf of our company, and our colleagues in germany, i would like to offer a sincere volkswagens use of things to defeat the testing regime. Feeling ofn upbeat the u. S. Economy was darkened by threatens from abroad. The threats for emerging markets raised risk. Speaking of the imf, World Bank Meeting in peru mark carney said that while the u. S. Economy is important, he underlined his independence in from fed policy. The movie is not decisive for the time of the move of the bank of england. We will take our responsibilities and determine the time for the start of the process of Monetary Policy for normalization consistent with the u. K. You will struggle to find an economist that think the bank of england will move before the fed. What can you say . Welcome back to bloomberg tv, lets get a check on the market. An eightday winning streak for the ftse 100. It is up 6 10 of 1 . They are really pushing on this week, the best week since 2009. The dax is also higher. The bond market and Bond Investors for the wrong reasons. A year after bill gross was ousted from the firm he is looking for vindication. His dissatisfaction with the way he left talked with Money Management of pimco. I did not like how my left. I did not like or care for the aspersions that i mightve lost my touch. I dont think i have lost my touch. Here 18 hours a day, believe it or not. That speaks to interest, and hopefully performance will speak to confidence. Jonathan now he is suing pimco for do want to million dollars. Caroline hyde has more. Caroline this is bill gross trying to rewrite the script that will shortly be a film in the making. This is phenomenal stuff. The land bridge at the pace is using to sue pimco. It is driven by a lost for power, he said. And a desire to improve their own financial position and reputation. The words he used to hit at some of the executives that he claims colleagues worked together in a cup all c abal. Riskaverse, and the plainvanilla stuff. Part of theed his bonus he was set to get for 2014. That was on track to be 254 million. He says hes going to give it to charity. It is really underlining the fact that this is about reputation, not money. As bill has said, and i am repeating, to the extent he gets any compensation from this lawsuit it is going to charity. Now he just wants to tell his story because he thinks his view of facts and his understanding has been misrepresented. Caroline record amounts of money coming out of what was the acus moneymanagement and the Top Mutual Fund in the world. Their response of far is saying and ouruit has no merit legal team will be responding in court in due cause. So says a spokesperson for pimco. The clashes have been all over the media. Issue is that this is not about the clients. Too much focus on money and compensation and the potentially risktaking in the fighting at the top. Caroline hyde, thank you very much. Lets welcome back in michael metcalf. Michael, i will not ask you about the lawsuit. I dont expect a response, but i will ask it about the series Financial Management story that underpins this story. Bill gross has a simple focus on a specific kind of security. In your view, what is the right approach . Michael there isnt one, but what we are learning is the difficulty of the environment. We are talking about lower for longer, and in developed markets that is a real challenge to get the returns that investors demand. They need to manage the currency and a more sophisticated way to go into emerging markets. There is a lot of pressure to hunt for yield. These pressures in part, they could be cyclical. They could get a lot worse. Jonathan the chair, and men well known in the bond market got it dead right to last year. Percentr, one in half thereabouts, what kind of world would you have to see to make a similar call . Michael i think it is a very different world from what our central projection is. We have a bit of a reflection rally right now. 1. 5 , youre talking global recession, Global Growth and maybe 1 . Makesatively, the fed massive policy mistakes and rates are at 2 in next year and the curve is completely reverted. That they telling us want to make that kind of mistake. That is what we learn. Jonathan final question, pimco saying the worst is over for the commodity market. I ask this question all week, going into 2016, the energy downward pressure on headline inflation will start dropping out pretty soon. I dont hear many people talking about it and what it means for the bond market. What is your view, michael . Michael the effects of start now. Is a really good chance that the inflation readings in terms of headline inflation this is the base. We thought it was the base earlier in the year. The really steep falls and oil prices came right at the end of the year. This is the interesting thing in terms of inflation. That is right for here, here is the risk for the rally this week. They dont respond to that sweet spot be have been deflation right now because it will go away. It will go away and inflation will be higher. Jonathan a big thing for the end of this year. Michael metcalf, thank you very much for joining us this morning. Up next, a sorry affair, vws Top Executive apologizing but says it was not a companywide conspiracy. Volkswagens u. S. Ceo says a missions cheating was something individuals that. Hans nichols is in berlin. An individual policy, not a companywide policy. What else to the have to say . Hans he said sorry a lot, he was trying to impress that he was embarrassed this happened was company. He vacillated sometimes talking about how angry he was. But he also said there was not an easy solution and they will take a long time to fix this. He did not play out a timeline just said they are still working on it and there was not a Simple Software solution. Roughly 500,000 cards are affected, around 430,000 cars are the gen one which were the very early ones that were started in 2009. That ase cars we believe software only solution will not be possible because in order to be quite frank if it wouldve been possible they wouldve it met the standards in the first place. Hans just moments ago is spokesperson put out a statement saying they are looking into whether or not the software is illegal in the european union. What the bigger engines there may be a software fix. For the 1. 8 and the 1. 6 it is more complicated. Jonathan hans, it isnt all bad news is it . They had a good month in september. Has always been a Profit Center for the company. In the back half, the volkswagen scandal was out so you cant discount it. U. S. Sales up 16. 2 , china up to . 2. 9 the fact that china is growing, that could be a positive sign. Hans daigles in berlin, thank you very much. What a week it has been in the ftse 100. Wasound up the week that for the Mining Industry after the break. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Jonathan good morning and welcome back to on the move, 100 on an eightday winning streak. The longest winning streak since january. Mining is having its biggest week since 2009. I will talk about that in just a moment. Very quickly, a dollar heading for the worst week since june. A Federal Reserve seems nervous about hiking Interest Rates and a massive week for ems, the best sense 2009. A stronger indonesian currency, quite a week for emergingmarket assets. Lets go to Caroline Hyde for the stocks to watch. The biggest aluminum producer, alcoa, missed estimates. He with more is Caroline Hyde. Caroline big slump in terms of profitability. Upon us, ouron is cobalt always kicks it off but it was a gloomy start. Sales down by 11 . Itnwhile, the prophet we saw seems it is half of what analysts had been expecting. No wonder we saw shares dropped 4 in afterhours trading. The reason is the glut that we are seeing currently in aluminum is all about china. This is the issue, china has been ramping up its supply. Supply up 28 , down go the prices when you look at aluminum. Half of where they were in 2008. Theyre down by 20 so far this year. Up, butld a creep back the supply and the glut is endless. This is what the pressure has been building on the likes of alcoa which is the number one producer of aluminum in the united states. It is taking drastic action. They are split in the company in two. Has been going really well for the business. He has been focusing on new areas of the business, meanwhile the legacy part of the mining business will be brought into two it could be investment great aimed at the manufacturing operations. Meanwhile, were likely to see a junk rating for the legacy business. It does seem to be winning some big contracts particularly in the new areas. The past week we have had 2 in termsollars worth of contracts. One coming in from lockheed martin, we understand. Meanwhile, airbus will need hightech material. I dont know my planes nearly enough, but the area is clear. The pipeline is clear. Now they just need to fix those prices. Hyde, thankroline you very much. We welcome and ben davis, mining analysts. The ftse 350 mining index, first of all good morning, and what a week. I wonder if anything has changed fundamentally or is this just a relief rally . we would it as a relief rally. The fundamentals have not changed for us. They will continue to deteriorate in the key commodities including copper. Ore, it is your big cord. Is anyone prepared for 30 iron ore . Talk to me about the commodity, what drives it down there . we still have a lot of lagging supply additions coming into the market. This month we have roy hill coming online, that will be 50 million tons starting in october. Dxt year, we have s 11 another 90 million tons thatll wrap up over time. That is a huge amount of capacity additions which will be have to be displaced. Realistically, we could see demanded down next year. Jonathan lets get to the pain factor, a straightforward strategy. We want to maintain market share, we will maintain volume. Ok with crisis where they are now, with prices down theres that change . Ben i dont think it does. This is been about five years in the making. They will keep following through with their supply additions and see their producers come to the market. Painful, you need prices to go a lot lower to get out of that high cost whether it is angloamerican or south african. Jonathan they need to be somewhere the mining sector, i wonder if that changes. Ben with mining i would not recommend any places to hide on a permanent basis. You might have some Tactical Relief like were seeing today. The dividend coverage will be continued to be called into question. Certainly on spot prices that will be a shortfall in paying. Jonathan i will sit the obvious here and bring up glencore versus copper and show the audience how correlated the glencore stock is to the price of copper. Then i think about another story and go further left field. Vw, and what it means for the platinum industry. If ipo platinum against some of that it would not add up. What is going on with platinum . Ben it is strange, it is been on a steady decline for a number of years. The past few weeks there has been excitement for markets. Americans have managed to agree to terms to sell their platinum accents assets. Is dragging the likes of aluminum up as well even though at current prices it is effectively bust. Me but thealk to significance of the bw story. Ben it is not absolutely clear what will be the and result of this. How much that will be going is the catalyst. That is 40 of platinum demand. If that did get eroded, it could be in trouble. That would be a shift to palladium, but they dig up less palladium in the new platinum. Jonathan a quick word on cutting supplies, glencore cutting zinc up by 8. 6 this morning. I wonder if this is the beginning of a cycle of cuts, cuts, cuts that

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