Highw it hit a sevenmonth earlier in the week. This is the dollar index down almost 0. 3 . Weve got to take a look at the way commodities have reacted to this. This has been a big story this week. Starting with crude oil. Wti, becausenymex, yesterday, we saw a drop below 40 a barrel for the First Time Since august. Looking unchanged at the moment. It is above that 40 a barrel mark. Gold rebounding. We did see it trades stronger this week, but it has come generally under downward pressure. It is up 0. 5 . , butr trading pretty flat still near that sixyear low. Industrial metals have been punished this week. Just to highlight some of the stocks weve been watching too, looking at thyssenkrupp, the german steelmaker, it was proposed to increase its fouryear dividend by 36 as profit rose in the 12 months through september. Arcelor mittal, the worlds biggest steelmaker said it is facing challenges because of cheap steel from china. Thyssenkrupp shares coming under downward pressure today. Finally, keep an eye on drugmakers. According to people familiar, pfizer is an advanced talks to buy allergan. That would value allergan, which makes botox, as high as 150 billion. That would be the biggest deal in the drug industry ever. Keep an eye on shares Like Astrazeneca and shire. Both these stocks have also been targets of potential acquisitions in the past. Jonathan thank you very much. Early data, but we have the dax up by 0. 8 , the ftse up by 34 points. Lets get your Market Reaction with Juliette Saly in hong kong. Juliette very positive session in the asian region on thursday. Those minutes coming through from the u. S. Fed boosting sentiment on wall street. We saw similar gains across our region. The shanghai market closing higher by almost 1. 5 . A lot of Companies Hitting that daily limit of 10 . We also had a policy decision in japan. Nikkei rising by over 1 at aipac. Be sayingister al they are close to ending deflation. It was the Australian Share market that was a standout today , up over 2 . That was led by a big game coming through in bhp billiton shares. , which yesterday fell below 20 a share, today were up by over 3 . The line holding its agm was questioned about that fallout in brazil. A lot of them said, can they afford to pay out dividends. Semiconductor, a big gain , lifting the taiex. It was the best performer by index value on the msci asiapacific index. Softbank in japan, weaker. That was as the bank came through announcing a massive bond purchase sale and a lot of analysts saying softbank has to stop attacking the markets for cash. Generally, a positive session in the asian region today. Likewise in europe. Juliette saly, thank you. Heres whats happening in todays program. Said minutes suggest the center of gravity on the fomc is shifting towards a december hike. 40 crude, u. S. Stockpiles increased. And, 2015 is set to be a record year for deals. The biggest since 2007. Jpmorgans cohead of m a joins us later this hour. Are the hawks taking over . Federal reserve minutes reveal that most participants agreed conditions to trigger a rate hike could be met by december. Dennis lockhart and bill dudley called up the u. S. Economy. Thats a good thing. Thats not a bad thing. Thats a sign the economy is returning to health. The Federal Reserve is getting closer to achieving our objectives. Ive often said over the last year or so, i really am looking forward to that day when we begin to normalize Monetary Policy. I view it as a good thing, not a bad thing. I expect the trajectory of policy rate rises to be dictated by the evolution of the economy and the balance of risks as you would expect. There wont be a predetermined path in my expectation. This is probably the most well advertised, discussed, thought about, mused over normalt of beginning a pace of Monetary Policy in history. When we do begin, i dont think its going to be a huge surprise. Im not looking for a big reaction. Jonathan lets bring in charles newsome, the winner of the city of london wealth manager of the year award. You would never have told me that so ive done it for you. Good to have you with us. December, i guess everyone is over it now. I dont see that in fed funds futures. For the market, maybe not. Charles i think december is almost inevitable now. I think the more interesting point is where the move is from there for investors. People have to think beyond that. Its going to the interesting to watch what they say when that happens. You cant take further rises too quickly as a given. Investors start thinking this is the first of several, they are mistaken. Jonathan they would love to. Raft a dovish hike are they going to be able to pull that off . Charles i cant see how they can do that. A hike is a hike to me. It seems marketing rhetoric to me. The case for raising rates here is not yet properly proven, i dont think. Maybe theyre trying to get ahead of the game. The minutes gave you the impression that if you were moving too early, it might be more dangerous than moving too late. Jonathan these can before that blowout jobs number later in the month. When i look at these minutes, Downside Risks abroad have diminished, have they . The Market Reaction has changed, but have the risks diminished . Charles i dont think so. Look at the crude price. E. M. Is still suffering with commodities so week. , the jury isl still out on that. Maybe the equity market has gotten more comfortable with rate rises. Jonathan the s p 500, aggressive rally off that august low. We failed to set a new high. What does that tell you about where we are . Crossed,we havent which is normally a bearish sign. If you follow those over many decades, your equity position will increase. You would have done very well. Weve had a debt cross. Look at the overall pattern of the s p over the longterm, particularly in the last six months, you can make a good argument, we are in a big pattern. Jonathan great to have you with us. Up next, crude. Big move in the commodity market yesterday. Below 40 a barrel. Should producers brace for more pain . Jonathan good morning. Good morning to the city. Here are bloombergs top stories. The bank of japan kept its Monetary Policy unchanged despite the economy slipping back into recession. The bank says its easing measures are having the intended effect. First trade its surplus in seven months. Parisian prosecutors say information found at the scene of yesterdays rain suggests the gang who struck last week was preparing another attack. Two people were killed and eight more arrested as police fired 5000 rounds during the operation. The suspected ringleader of the terrorists is not among those detained. Police say they dont know if hes among the dead. Bloomberg sources say pfizer is in advanced talks to buy allergan for as much as 380 a share. The deal would value the botox maker at as much as 150 billion in what would be the drug industrys largest ever deal. One of the top stories in markets yesterday, 40 crude. Oil falling to the lowest level in almost three months as u. S. Government data showed crude stockpiles expanded for an eight week. Futures dropped below 40 a barrel for the first time in august. Lets get more with our Inhouse Energy expert, bloombergs chief energy correspondent, javier blas. 40,reak below fundamentals or just the fx market . Javier i think you have a huge headwind from the dollar. The fed clearly is going to raise interest rates. That is contributing to the weakness in oil prices. Supply and demand is still pointing right now at too much oil. Jonathan i was listening to you earlier. They expected it to happen quicker. It has taken almost 12 months. I have the bart chart. On year production dropping for the first time in over a decade. Javier it is a big signal. This is the center of the oil boom in the united states. It was growing year on year for since 2004. In september, we had the first drop in 11 years. That this iscation starting to work, damaging nonopec producers. It has taken a long time. Opec were expecting in six months to have them on their knees. It is a yearandahalf when they are beginning to bend. Production remains high. Some, youcharlie knew look at the energy majors, you just do that for another 12 months . Charles i think so. Keep your readings very low. It is going to be difficult for them. More dividend cuts, i think, are inevitable. I think patience is the best way. Sit on the sidelines. Maybe keep small exposure if you need to, but be cautious. Jonathan 40 crude. I said the year was going to end with 40 crude. Im not a commodity analyst. We are back to 40. Someone came back to me yesterday and said, look at the permian basis. Javier you have three major areas for shale oil in the united states. You have north dakota, and that is starting to drop. That is the eagle fort also coming down. In the border between texas and new mexico, you have the permian. Their production is increasing. Results. Getting it is very difficult, but they are getting more oil and production is increasing. Jonathan of the oblast, my events of next month, maybe the ecb, the likelihood will be the fed. A boring opec meeting or one that matters . Javier i think it is going to be a black and white scenario. That is what we are expecting. We have a huge surprise. The saudis decide to cut production. Were going to have a relatively boring meeting for opec. What i think is over the next few weeks, we are going to have a lot of negative news flow from the oil market. We are expecting the saudis to say, we are going to stay producing a lot of oil. We are going to have Climate Change negotiations where theres going to the a lot of negative headlines regarding hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. We have also the iranians starting to make the right noises in terms of the nuclear program. We saw yesterday the first signs of their nuclear facilities. Those three elements are going to keep the markets thinking that more oil is coming and Climate Change probably longterm, not good for oil prices. Jonathan final question to you, charlie. Talking about statelevel decisions. When we look at corporate decisions, you maintain output, that strategy, what is the feedback loop for that . Charles i think ultimately that will [indiscernible] they will not have sufficiently invested in their businesses and they will have to raise money from shareholders if they continue much longer. All youve done is paid out a big dividend and had to take money back from shareholders. Jonathan when is the by point . Javier for big oil, we are still early. We are at 40 oil. You look at the consensus for profitability, net income of big oil. Than 2015. Is higher the prices are not signaling that. We may start to see some analysts cutting the projection for profit. That is going to probably drive equity prices down for Companies Like bp, shell, etc. Jonathan great to have you with us. Blas will be joining us throughout the morning on bloomberg. Charlie newsome will be staying with us. Up next, we stick with commodities. Shareholders meet in london to discuss whether to proceed with a deeply discounted issue. Jonathan welcome back to on get to your top stock stories with nejra cehic. Net dividendear , confident it can meet midterm targets and planning a Share Buyback program. That is the biggest gainer on the stoxx 600. Investec, money manager in south africa and the u. K. , said fiscal firsthalf profit rose 15 after improved performance from its banking unit. Finally, thyssenkrupp. This is declining at the open. Shares rebounding now. It proposed to increase its dividend. That missed the forecast, but the german steelmaker that brought but the german steelmaker did say that profit rose. We heard other steelmakers, arcelor mittal, saying they are under pressure. Jonathan thank you very much. The lines also performing very well. Glencore up almost 5 . Decent performance from them. Struggles, Shareholders Meeting in london to vote whether to go ahead with a deeply discounted multimillion dollar share issue. The move is a lastditch attempt to stop the platinum producer from becoming the biggest casualty today. Ryan chilcote is here. Thee get that vote meeting itself starts in a little bit over an hour. All indications are that they will vote for the issue. Theres three reasons for that. None of the big shareholders have publicly expressed any issues. Them, with a stick under just 7 , has expressed support. None of the big shareholders with more than a 3 stake have been around for very long. None of them were around a year ago. Difficult for them to object to this steep discount. It doesnt really affect them. Finally, no one seems to have a better idea. Are that thiss right issue will go forward. Jonathan thank you for breaking that down. Charlie newsome still with us. Lets go through that headline. Offering shares at a 94 discount. Theoretically, if you are one of the existing shareholders in this company, would you have to buy into it . Charles i dont think youve got a choice. Otherwise it looks like it is over for lonmin. I couldnt believe what the terms were. That shows you the signs of desperation by management. Jonathan you look at the commodity market as it stands. Doesnt matter what you do. If the good or service that you provide, if the price of that halves in 12 months, theres going to be casualties. Are you surprised there havent been more . Charles a little. Im also surprised the Senior Management teams didnt see this coming. Mining has always been a very cyclical business. The Senior Management teams have been there a long time. They should have known to be cautious. Some of the prices they pay for these assets were extraordinary. They seemed to carry on buying. Now, they seem to be pulling back as hard as they can. Think some of the allocation of capital by these management teams, you have got to severely question and think, should i be putting more money towards these . Jonathan are you questioning the existing strategy . Charles i do, im afraid. They are pulling back on capex to maintain dividend. I dont think thats a good idea. Where is the point where Charlie Newsome says, i want some . Charles it is very simple. I look at the fundamentals long and hard. Am i going to make money out of this over the longterm . I can deal with some pain in the short term. My final decision comes when i look at the chart and say, does everyone agree with me . Is that evidenced in the chart . If theres no evidence, i quit. Jonathan Charlie Newsome of investec, the winner of the city of londons wealth manager of the year award. Up next, poised for a record year of dealmaking. Jpmorgans cohead of m a will answer those questions. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Jonathan good morning. Welcome back to on the move. Im Jonathan Ferro in the city of london. About 30 minutes in todays session. Ftse up by. 9. The miners taking us to where we are this morning. The dax up 141 points. A decent pop this morning. The Federal Reserve. We went through the fx market and the commodities market as well. Euro dollar off a sevenmonth low. The b. O. J. Despite a recession, stimulus is working, apparently. Crude oil at 40 a barrel. Copper a low on copper this morning. Elsewhere, big, big year for m a. Deal making so far this year, poised to match, even take over 2007. Some of the strengths, remarkably it has come from asia. A decent report from jpmorgan. Im pleased to say that we can talk about it. Great to have you with us this morning. I was reading through your report. Luckily you sent it to me. I read through it. I was thinking how confident they are and how many of them see themselves as net buyers. Is that a key indicator . It is a key indicator. It has been a big year for m a. The market globally is up approximately 40 . It has been driven by north america, which is up 50 . Asia is actually up 70 . In terms of deal volumes, they are up headtohead with 1. 32 trillion. It is a hell of a landmark that asia is caught one europe and therefore, you know, that has generated tremendous interest from our western clients in terms of how do Asian Companies think about deal making and m a and what we figured is given the strength of our platform, we decided to go ahead and ask them directly how do they think about deal making . Went out to 55 of our largest corporate clients and went to Senior Management and asked them what is important in m a . First thing is no surprise. External growth via sma a critical part of their Strategic Thinking and their strategic agenda. We found from a regional perspective they look to asia for growth and western markets for valueadded products, services and technology. And looking at western markets, north america is an area of focus and in europe, in this order, it is germany, the u. K. And france. The other thing we found surprisingly is asian buyers are strategic in their thinking. What is interesting is in almost 50 of instances, they measure their success in m a over a period of at least 10 years. And also critically in over 50 of incidents, the rates they use are up to no more than 10 and in many instances they dont actually use a hurdle rate all the. Jonathan the story you just told me, though, they look domesticically for growth. That is not a new story. How long can that tail wind continue . I think that tail wind will continue. I do think as the middle classes it is a middle class in asia continues to grow, i think there is a greater consumerled demand into asia and i think that company is trying to cater to that demand and looking for those Valueadded Services and products to bring onshore. Jonathan i have a 6. 9 g. D. P. Figure from china. I look at the commodity market flashing this big red light and a question mark about demand and then i look at your report about the confidence of Asian Companies. What is the w