Bloomberg has a default risk model indicating that this companys creditworthiness is the highest with a triple be scored. Triple bletter scored. And iron orein oil has also been putting pressure on this company. Glencore, this is the worst performance of this year on the ftse 100. It has lost two thirds of its value this year. It looks like it is trading lower today. The analysts are saying that it may be on the cusp of a rebound. Down 5. 2 at the moment. As for the astrazeneca, we have talked of the pfizer allergan deal which could happen as soon as today. Withzeneca has agreed perrigo to do best u. S. Rights. It will help it focus on its three main there be areas and its quarter guidance for this year has been maintained. I want to give you a check on the commodities. Crude holding below 42 a barrel. Gold up as well by six has a 1 . Copper has dropped to a 2009 low. A little bit of a pullback. The back of the commodity mine this morning. French pmi, manufacturing is much better than last month. A slip on the services pmi coming in at 51. 3. Below the survey. That brings down the opposite to 51 point three and that is a mix on the survey of 52. 5. A lot of numbers to dig through. We will do that again in 30 minutes when we get the german pmi. Yvonne asia stocks falling on a inonger dollar and a drop commodity and japan on holiday. Not let these in this is indices confuse you. It is the miners and Oil Producers that have brought down the regional markets. Bhp, the biggest drag in the region. Scrapmpany will need to its policy to preserve its credit rating. The korean session led gains on the regional benchmark, up 7 10 of 1 . The shanghai session ended the day down success of 1 . The regulator has restarted ipo for 10 companies. Five in shanghai and five in shenzhen. What will that mean for markets . The fivemonth freeze. Every time a new batch of companies took orders the last year, we saw money market rates climb as investors hoarded cash for their bit. Last batch of 28 ideas sign of confidence from chinese official that the market can stand on its own. That is what is happening in markets across the world. Heres what is happening in todays program. Commodities in a tailspin. Copper heads a new sixyear low. The dollar has back to a 2015 high. , 14 years after the biggest default the world had ever seen, the country focuses elects a probe is in pro business pro president s. President. The commodities slumped continues. The dollar gains pushing back towards a 2015 high court for in stuartus bring wallace. Ceo and Founding Partner of asset management. And timothy ash. Great to have you with us. Every morning, i get the bloomberg terminal at 5 00 a. M. And i look at copper, new lows, oil trading at 40 a barrel. It is very hard to tell right now. Reality. They are looking at china, and the rest of the world economy. With the exception of the u. S. They are looking at supply which is coming on the tail end of a 10 year old. Billions and billions were spent on mines, oil wells, and infrastructure. A lot of supply. Some worries about demand. The price is it logical . I dont know. Jonathon is that where you would expect to see what the dollar is doing now . I think it is being driven by quantitative easing primarily in europe and in japan as well. We have seen the impact of the dollar in earnings numbers throughout q3 as well. The commodity sector is being hit hard particularly by Global Growth concerns. Going to talkre about emerging markets later in the program. Given what were seeing in the middle east, are you surprised at how insulated the oil market is . Expectations of u. S. Policies as well, the loose policies have been a big driver of oil as well. The supply affect has come. When of the big factors has been the saudi policy. The longer term battle and struggle between saudi arabia and iran. Saudi is determined to keep the oil price low. Jonathon for the next chapter. Glencore down by 4. 5 . The strategy remains unchanged. Protect the dividend. Keep volume up. No matter what the price of iron ore actually is. How much longer can they maintain that strategy . Those that have been around long enough do not think that the price of iron ore is unreasonable. The shortterm memories, and they are looking at 100 a time. Big players do have much lower cost production than the smaller competitors. They could have much better balance sheets. Remember that in this environment, not everyone is doing badly. This morning, we looked at mexicos oil heads. Hedge 6 billion this year from that program. It is not gloom for everyone. Jonathon when do you step back and . Back in . Global economy starts to increase and we get rate hikes like we are starting. You have to remember that a lot of investors both institutionalized and private the market has been cautious, events into her as last week were sad but have not had the impact on Financial Markets that many expected. Markets trading up slowly but surely. Jonathon gentlemen, great to have you with us this might. Thank you very much. Commodity markets dominate. Copper and a fresh 2009 low. The dollar heading for the 2015 high. Brussels in lockdown for a third day. We are live in the belgian capital. Jonathon good morning. Good morning from the city of london. This is on the move. The ftse 100 is down by 7 10 of 1 winter has arrived. It is cold in the city this point. A lot of top stories to get to. Secret weg with my had an announcement from the earlier today. Firstline revenue of two point 6 . The company also sees a good fullyear performance. The intradividend was a miss compared to estimate. Perhaps that is why we are seeing the stock move leader lower today. Bhp billiton. The commodities slumped. A proper drop to a 2000 copper dropping to a 2009 low. There are questions over whether the litan will bhp billiton will have to drop its dividend. Credit worthiness questions. As well as the brazil disaster adding pressure to the profits. Glencore. A problem because of the commodities slumped. It lost two thirds of its value. It is down again today. Some analysts saying it could be on the cusp of a rebound. Jonathon to brussels now. The belgian capital on chechen. The Belgian Police have arrested 16 people. There is an imminent attack on brussels. The city remains on lockdown for the Third Straight day. Schools, shops, and the Metro Network are shut down. The perceived threats were discussed in a press conference yesterday. I confirm as i was able to indicate yesterday that we are fearing a similar attack to that which took place in paris involving several individuals who might launch an attack on several different locations at the same time. We have information that leads us to believe that the potential targets are places which are regularly frequented. We are thinking for example of commercial centers or street or another example might be the Public Transportation system. Jones, give me the latest. The trip into work was different. I usually take the subway but since it has been shut down for three days, i had to drive today the atmosphere out there is very quiet. It is a little beer he. You expect a lot of people to be out and about. Weekendct that over the when they for shut down the metro and the shops very and venues in downtown brussels. Over the weekend, it was extremely quiet. It is usually very vibrant. You almost had more soldiers and police on the streets in downtown brussels saturday night and sunday night and you had actual locals eating and drinking. Last night, sending it, they had raised in downtown brussels. They widened the scope of the search for suspects related to the terror attacks in paris. Districts in brussels. The main suspect was not apprehended. He is still at large. That is a big reason why the terror alert continues as it is and why brussels remains on lockdown today. Jonathon it was a big event. They are hosting a special meeting of European Finance ministers later. Are we expecting that to go ahead . Yes, a said last night that they are going ahead with this meeting. Europe area finance ministers. He will be discussing something very relevant to the terror threats here. France and other countries have boosted spending, belgium one of them on security in the wake of the attacks in france and that will have an impact on the budget. With the strict budget rules that we have in the europe area, how will that fly . Will they be able to go ahead . The answer seems to be that the eu officials, the commission this ist juncker says an exception and we have to do what it takes to maintain security and we will figure out budget stuff later. The flexibility is there. Jonathon thank you very much for joining us. Stay with us. The markets are responding sensitively towards this. If it isdecide sensible or not. Any kind of fallout on the bond market will not happen if the ecb has a foot on the pedal on qe. As it is, it has very little impact on the Financial Markets. It may have an impact on gdp rose where the strength or weakness of the euro and the quantitative easing of the system. Interest rates remain low. Quantitative easing is firmly on the table based on draghis comments on friday. Jonathon two big developments. One of them is Vladimir Putin coming in from the cold. In your world, has that story progressed . The market, investors seem to think that with russia reaching out to the west over isis it is increasing the prospect of sanctions being moderated. It does not matter what i think. It matters what the investors think. They are assuming that. Russian assets have done relatively well compared to other emerging assets. Jonathon would you put any of the assets given that development . We would slowly start to look at russia. Oil prices are low. The political environment is slowly changing. There never is a good time to go in one market has fallen as much as they have in russia but it does not look like a bad time to get exposure. In the next 12 months. Jonathon i always seem to hear the same thing about russia and russian assets. Low. Am i getting it all wrong . We have been come with russia in this geopolitical place. Longterm, because i think nothing has fundamentally changed in the russian longterm story. Nothing really happening there at all. Macro management has been good but they have been buying time because they have been in a longterm geopolitical fight with the west over ukraine. , i thinkn intervention is over ukraine. Influence discussions with the west. Were sixck to where we month ago with the ukraine. Tactically yes, i can see why people would be high on russia. Lack of supply. Sanctions have been great for limiting supply of new issuance which creates scarcity. Ifon emerging markets you view them through the prism of the world. Russia and the prospects of sanctions being eventually turkeycap you also see and increased pessimism around turkey. Domestic political story is driving athens right now. Does that continue . Turkey lives in a difficult neighborhood. It always has. It always faces a significant security threat. Investors have been for example, russian jets bombing along the border as threatening to turkey. Peopleually, i think understand that both russia and turkey do not want a conflict over. In turkey, the story is about domestic politics. We had elections on november the fifth. Big surprise, the outcome. For turkey, the key driver is this week, the formation of the capital. Will it be a reform oriented cabinet . If they get a decent administration in place, they will be well. If they dont, i think they could do very poorly. They are very binary at the money. At the moment. Jonathon we will be talking about a reform oriented government. The new president promises in argentina. He is way to live currency controls and export taxes and bring the country in from the cold. Jonathon good morning and welcome back to on the move. Joining you live from the city of london. Is to be the next president of argentina after winning the general election. He will take office on december 10. Setting the stage for economic theralization and heralding end of punitive export taxes and currency controls. Investors hope. Tim, you and i have had conversations. The bottom up work becomes more significant now. People have ignored that in the last few years. All emerging markets and high commodity prices. As those retreat, the country stories are much more important. The focus on the fragile five. The argentina story is the headlines today. Evidence now that some of those country stories are beginning to to turn beginning to term. India has been an improved a story for the last year or so. Argentina has the prospect of improvement. Turkey, again surprise election results, hope of a reformed administration coming back in in turkey. Turkey could be a very good story this year. South africa, we had a surprise rate hike last week. It has been construed very positively by the government. The russia structural fred story. In the end, the market seems to think the sanctions will be moderated and reduced. There are some signs of hope i think for emerging markets. I would say that em effects are very cheap. A lot of these countries are getting to doubledigit rates so that local markets could look very attractive. Jonathon the amount of risk premium in the fx market. Fx . He Market Opportunity in markets in emerging markets are down by about 10 . We have had massive currency move and massive levels of volatility. Look at china. Haveeally do have to appetite for risk when youre getting exposure to the emerging markets. The debt market you are exposed to masses of currency moves. Jonathon i keep hearing about reform oriented economies. Gentlemen, stay with us. Pmi numbers out of germany. We will be live in berlin to bring you that data points. Data point. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Jonathon good morning and welcome to on the move. Winter has officially arrived. Ftsenutes until the down by 910 to 1 . The commodity route to continues. As far as dated is concerned, data out of germany right now, the pmi, the number out of november. Manufacturing coming out at 52. 6. Services coming in at 55. 6. The survey 54. 4. The composite coming in a 54. 9. The survey at 54. 0. Man that knows a something about german data. He is in berlin for us. If only the germans had a say on qe. February that up in are march when they signaled it would be fine with it. These numbers are better than expected on manufacturing and survey. The composite comes in slightly better. We will see in 30 minutes if that will be able to live lift the eurozone numbers a little and help it meet its numbers. One quick note, about 30 minutes ago, we got the french numbers. They disappointed. Manufacturing came in worse than expected. That right in line, 50. 8. On services and the composite from we saw and almost 1. 2 drop. Services, some of that could be terrorism related where we are seeing an Immediate Impact on the tourism industry. The french numbers are not great. German numbers better than expectations. We get the whole eurozone in about 29 minutes. I know you are excited. Jonathon i am always excited. Those deciding, whether we do more qe how had the political argument developed . You were there on friday. Is there any pushback and germany at all and if there is, will that resistance move the ecb . S the german position. Do not talk down the data. In some ways, that was implied criticism of draghi. Draghi is insisting that the numbers are not that bad. Also tomorrow, we will get the final reading of german gdp. With that, you get the breakdown. The germans are slower at breaking down where their growth is. We will see how strong Consumer Spending is with the overall number of gdp in the order zero point 8 . Im looking to see if the german consumer is driving some of the growth here. Yes, you will not have the same conversation from the last 10 months. How strongly are they opposed to quantitative easing and if any of their resistors can trip the circuit. It appears as though they cannot. Jonathon i will put these questions to the investors on gentlemen, it is hard to spot the difference in draghi. Last year, he said almost exactly the same thing that he said on friday. We will do what it takes to get inflation back towards target. It is a sign he is going to do more. It is also a sign that it has not worked in the last 12 months. It is a gradual approach with the ecb. They will spend qe. This will also have an impact on the euro. 20 undervalued. This all ties in with the credibility that Central Banks have which is quite poor at the moment. They talk but nothing really happens and we do not see the changes we expect to see. This is a european approach. Jonathon i mentioned emerging markets to the governor in australia a month ago. He said it was not turkey coming he said hehina was not worried about the emerging markets at all. Willg markets europe they continue to perform well . Belgium hast in been whether it changes consumer patterns and behavior in europe. The gradual recovery that we as seen in western europe. Are g european markets their balance sheet. They have the big balances in order. They are showing account deficits. Good shape pretty and the growth has been quite good. The countries have been very durable including poland and romania. Terrorism,hreat from what is clear is that the ecb will not do anything radical. Assube very a shirt, maneuvers inarp terms of financial policy. Very cautious. In the end, we are still constructing an emerging europe. U. S. the euros versus germany. Oversoldhow the euro and how it is rebounding . Do you think that will happen . We think fair value for the eurodollar is 129. That is the direction we should be moving towards. We did not see a move towards parity. 1. 07e hovering around the level now. It is hard to see the euro weakened much further. The qe has already priced in. We have a weak euro. This is very good for the european economy as a general rule because they can do much cheaper prices on exports now. The euro is nice and weak. A lot of quantitative easing. Despite the terrorist attack that we have seen. Jonathon question on at assets. First quarter, the big son we had an equity boom if you think it is going to be the other way around and we get the qe and the euro strengthens going into view one next year, what does that mean for stocks in europe . It could have an impact on earnings. It will have an impact on any corporation that has significant exposure to mainland europe including American Companies and emergingmarket comp