Dont just keep an i on these stocks. It looks like they are moving higher. Keep an eye on other players in in europe. Market moving onto Anglo American, we are talking about commodities. The slump in commodities across the board, angloamerican holding its investor day today. We might see a statement coming out about now, the investor day happening between 9 00 and 11 00. That stock at the unit doesnt seem to be moving, but it is the second worst performer on the ftse 100 index this year. Just a quick check on commodities. You can see wti and brent both rebounding. Copper though, still down. Those metals, at a sixyear low. Guy we have news. We have news on Anglo American. As we heard earlier on from jesse, the worst kept secret the dividend has been suspended, the second half of 2015 and 2016. There also making an announcement on the structure of the business. Jonathan i think this is interesting, consolidating the business from six businesses to three businesses. I think the dividend news wasnt really the news. The disposals and the consolidation, there is little bit of extra news. Lets bring in michael metcalfe. Us, karen hodgson. Welcome to tv. What do you make of the dividend news and the consolidation news, the idea that you streamline the business more and increase the disposal target . As you say, the dividend was probably one of the worst kept secrets in the city. The best Case Scenario investors couldve hoped for was a conversion to a payout ratio. Thats gone. Thats going to save a significant amount of money for the business. The restructuring is definitely in response to the commodities outlook at this moment. Considered sale is something that has been reiterated. We considered that is one of the better parts of the business it could sell. Billion dollar price tag, if that is achieved, that will exceed the companys guidance. They are not talking about 4 billion worth of divestments. There is a perceived capital shortfall at spot pricing. That is something the company has to reconsider, especially if it wants to maintain its Investment Grade rating. Guy this isnt enough . Kieron there still has to be a response. Its also going to come down to the my new shirt, which we will see at 9 00, and how the company is going to position itself for stability Going Forward from 16, 17, and 18. Nejra its difficult because you are often at the most pressure, but the two businesses they have highlighted would probably see a better price closer to book. Jonathan the dividend policy changes to a payout ratio, but they suspend the second half of 2015 and 2016 dividend. This is starting to sound a lot like glencore in the sense of restructuring, the challenges over the debt, the challenge of the spot prices. The question i wanted to ask you, the diversified mining model is ok when prices are coming up. The way down, the only thing that matters, if you are the lowest cost producer. Is a diversified mining strategy under pressure, and is that still a decent strategy Going Forward . Kieron with mining, the idea behind divestment is to give you protection. No one ever forecasted a complete collapse in commodities across the board. There wouldve been the perception that if oil was stable, we could absorb losses in iron ore. If copper was week, we could make Something Back in aluminum. Everything is off across the board. It doesnt matter if you are a specialized minor, diversified. You are going to be hurt. Within diversified portfolios, these businesses are run as specialist units they are. All hurting , and its coming together under one big unit one big on bella. Jonathan 360 pence. We couldve asked, where is the bottom . Where is the entry point . Where do i start picking up the pieces . Is it 360 yet go, if they do a share sale at 125 them and we think thats ok, what is the entry point for anglo . Kieron you can point out the fact that anglo, the market cap is less than the business it spun off. It underperformed against any other diversified miner. There are so many aspects that concern the commodity markets, and i think the biggest one for investors right now is, despite the diversified miners being deep value plays, the simple fact of the matter is Mining Companies produce an asset that they have absolutely no control over the price that it is sold. That instills a lot of fear in investors in a downward trajectory. There is no time investors look at it and say, i am going to look at this in two or three years time. How is the profile looking . They dont know. There is no way of telling. Guy if you are a smart guy with a bunch of cash, and you are trying to figure out where your entry point is im talking this buying businesses goes not just for the minors, but across the whole thing. What do i do . Youve got a bunch of cash. What is the strategy . Michael you wait for a signal that demand is coming back. One such signal, for example, might be that the Federal Reserve is confident enough to raise rates. It is things like that that , while it looks countercyclical, that might be the signal of confidence investors need to know Global Demand will be at 3 . For all the supply issues we talked about, its deep value, under owned. That is perhaps the time you put the money to work. Jonathan i was looking at the Short Interest on anglo before we came on. Glencore was the proxy for china. It was the stock that got beaten a no matter what Ivan Glasson Berg did. Targeter what the debt was, no matter where they were. Is Anglo American the new glencore . Kieron i think investors view anglo as the proxy for south africa. The majority of earnings still from south africa, or from an investors perspective, south africa. Corporate as a whole is a closer proxy for china. That is one of the reasons we have seen the lowkey announcement that the regulators are looking at the shortselling. F copper the impact it has on the perception of the chinese economy. Value, butns deep the point of entry has to be a point of potential confidence. At this moment in time, investors are still concerned whether or not anglo is a business as a business retains the liquidity to grow. Guy is there a credit event coming . Kieron if we were to see another 25 step down in commodity prices, the probability would increase. At 40. Is trading off, its not10 unreasonable. You could get 50 off. Some people are calling for it. Kieron absolutely. To not forecast that would be remiss, and its difficult. Jonathan final question angle cuts the dividend. Glencore, doing the same thing. When do we get to a point when rio and bhp have to do the same . Kieron i think we are already there. Investors are already looking at these businesses and saying, this dividend at this moment in time, while you might be able to take the cost on your Balance Sheet and increase leverage, unless you are going to come out so we leverage the business and absorb these and maintain the dividend, i think it would be best to take the pain, take the cuts, and give investors the opportunity to start that rebuilding process. Jonathan great to have you with us this morning, anglo down by 2. 33 . 2. 33 onling around the year, down around 70 . Glencore, little bit worse than that. The ugly ducklings on the ftse 100 this year where are we . Nine minutes since the open of the session. We will look at the latest export and input import data from china. Later, ceos talk Climate Change. Geb trioalk about the and how they are creating a global coffee empire. Nine minutes into the session in london, the ftse 100, lower by 1 10 of one thing percent. This is on the move. Good morning. Guy welcome back. U are watching on the move that is the city of london. We were expecting the footsie to open higher. We are down by 2 10 of one thing percent. Lets get you up to speed. Abenomics has received a shot in the arm after revised gdp data shows japan avoided recession last quarter. The threey grew 1 in months through september rather than shrinking 0. 8 . Pimco is going for some heavyweight names in an effort to reassure its clients. The Company Announced that former fed chief ben bernanke, former british Prime Minister gordon brown, and former ecb head jeanclaude trichet a will be part of a new Global Advisory board. Chinas biggest bank icbc said it punished 137 staff for breaches of communist party discipline, such as accepting gifts or starting their own businesses. This comes as a corruption crackdown sweeps through the chinese financing industry. For more on the stories and others, head to the bloomberg terminal and bloomberg. Com. Jonathan another top story, chinese exports falling for a fifth month in november, while the import slump stretched to a record 13 straight month. Lets bring in malcom scott. Great to have you with us. Im seeing month on month on month on month. I wonder what the message is in the data right now. What is the headline message. Malcom the rest of the world is doing china no favors. China isnt going to be able to export its way out of the growth slide, but china isnt doing the rest of the world any favors. It is importing less. On the volume side, it may not be important too much less, what on the price side because of the big declines in commodity prices. We are seeing a big slump in the year on year figures on the import front. That moderated slightly in november. Maybe there are some signs of stabilization creeping in. Over the whole year view, we are seeing china contribute less to Global Demand. Jonathan just to pick you up on that point, people always try to look at the pmi and say, we are bottoming out, things are not as slow or aggressive in the downturn as they were before. Is the import data telling you that, and what does it say about the domestic recovery . When economists talk about the new engine of growth, i dont see it in the import data. Malcolm that is exactly what is happening. We are seeing a slow down in old Growth Drivers. There is less imported steel. Indeed, there is more steel headed abroad. There is less call. Some old Growth Drivers are still waiting. Residential construction is slowing. Onare seeing the demand side consumption, on services picking up, but they both involve less imported goods. Especially once we take the price of fax from the commodity slumped into account, we really are seeing less of a global kick from chinas growth this year. In chinas domestic economy, looking at the inside, there is also a bit of a growth gap that seems to be emerging. Yes, there are bright spots in the economy, services, consumption. Employment is holding up well. All of that isnt enough to abate this slide in growth, this steady tick down to a low to moderate level. Jonathan great to have you with us on the program. Guy lets bring in our guest metcalfe andel kieron hodgson. How do the stockpiles of commodities look like in china, and how much visibility do it have about how much copper there is, how much iron there is, etc. . Kieron if im honest with you, it doesnt look particularly good. The transparency in the data has been something of a concern for market watchers, so we have baked that into expectations. We kind of know that the data coming out can often be sketchy, but we can even evaluate and come to a reasonable conclusion by looking at data from other data points outside of china, and then looking at inflow and outflow data. The issue youve got, and you hit the nail on the head, is quite simply supply. Supply and stockpiles. Rising supply, falling demand, resulting in higher inventory levels on a global basis, although china is the major consumer of all commodities, is the ultimate driver for lower prices. Got is a lot of companies reacting to lower prices by producing more. Thats the biggest issue. Youve got to break that trend. The companies as a whole, industries as a whole need to bite the bullet, cut production, and reduce the amount of slack and inventory in the pipeline. Until that happens, you are going to continue to see declines in prices. You see copper off 25 . Lead is only off 10 . People are raving about it. Its not a pretty picture. This doesnt instill confidence for investors looking at commodities as an investment class. There has to be leadership by the producers in order to reduce stockpiles on a global basis to try to at least get price stability, what alone improvement. Jonathan the commodity market is flashing red. The trade numbers are flashing red. Bel me why i shouldnt concerned about the global economy. 10 years ago, these kinds of numbers from china, people would be concerned about Global Growth. People now say, things are changing. Should we not be concerned . Michael you have to be really careful with the trade numbers right now. In value terms, we are looking at a collapse in Global Growth that looks similar to 2008. Guy the overall volume . Michael exactly. The volume numbers arent great, that they are nowhere near as bad as the value numbers of course, remember, Exchange Rates have moved an awful lot this year. Thats another big drag on the global trade numbers. Yes, trade is soft, but there are a lot of price effects in that. Thats why we dont panic yet. Jonathan i want to turn to the economist in you. Gdp and trade income relationship, the ratio is changing. What is happening there . Income . Well, the trade jonathan what is happening . Michael the main thing that drives these trends over the longer term is demographics. The main reason, for instance, why europe is in such a big trade surplus in part is demographics. Europe has got the biggest chunk of its population and the 3065 age group. That explains that. China is a developing economy. Eventually , it surplus will disappear. Eventually, its surplus will disappear. The one thing i would say regarding the implications for Global Growth, back to the is that itstion, soft, but not as soft as some of the headlines look. The other thing we have seem to have forgotten is, we focus on commodities, but this is a tax cut for everyone else. We did this last year. It didnt really come through. We talked about the benefit to consumers. It is still there. There are other sectors that benefit from this. Guy there is a positive in there. Michael im trying to be positive. Guy the glass is halffull. We will come back to that. The question is, with all the stimulus, with all the commodities, with everything else, when does it start to pick up . We will talk about that in a minute. Kieron hodgson, joining us. Michael metcalfe, staying with us. Up next, the chancellor of the exchequer tells an audience that britain has got its mojo back. My message to you on this visit to new york is that britain has got its mojo back, and we are going to be with you as we reassert western values, confident that our best days lie ahead. A very happyt was chancellor George Osborne speaking in new york. He said the u. K. Stands ready with the u. S. To reassert western values. He also spoke about britains relationship with the european union. Britain is not part of some of these central eu projects, like the single currency, the euro, nor indeed the common border area. Has devised,union, does not really provide for a large member state, the secondbiggest economy in europe, the second this contributor to the eu budget, sitting outside of these central arrangements, and yet that is the settled role of the british people. We need to make sure these arrangements work better for britain, and indeed work better for those who are trying to make their currency, the euro, stronger. Guy George Osborne, speaking in new york. Michael metcalfe, still with us. We have a Brexit Debate that hasnt started yet. When it starts to get going and we start to understand the dynamics of the arguments, how do you think markets are going to react . Michael i think we will have learned from the Scottish Referendum where for quite a while markets ignored that come in than one poll changed it, and we had a lot of volatility in sterling in particular. Is a broaderexit and bigger issue, it bigger impact on the economy certainly, and so because of that, having had that Scottish Referendum, i think we will start to look as soon as we get the date, we will look at the polls closely. One of the recent polls had a out. N favor of the markets didnt react yet, but as soon as we have a date, that will be a focus. Wevean michael, i think done on around the world asset class trip. Thank you very much for joining us. 26 minutes into the session in london. The ftse 100, opening lower. The ftse off by 4 10 of 1 . The dax, down by 6 10 of 1 . 3 . Minors, down by up next on this program, we will take it from the miners to cop 21. We will talk wind farms with the boss of a firm expected to benefit from investment in energy efficiency. Jonathan welcome back. 30 minutes into the trading day. This is what the equity markets look like. I think this is an odd morning. Ftse is down, miners are down. Rest of it is odd, were mixed up. The generators are down in germany. Its not a clearly defined story, its not like miners are dragging everybody lower. You switch up the board, bloomberg Commodity Index dropped to a 1999 low. A handoff on a metric ton of iron ore. Brent crude bouncing off the sixyear low, down by 8 10 of 1 . Euro, and dollar yen. Lets go to nejra cehic now for your top stories. Nejra the focus is very much on telecoms and miners. Telecoms are the biggest gainers on the stoxx 600. Whats driving a lot of these companies higher, including iliad, is that orange seems to be in early discussions about buying bou gues. We could see this conglomerate carve out its Construction Unit and retain a Minority Stake in ygues. Mbined orangebou ahi,ce, led by patrick dra made a bid for bouygues. Also, the focus on miners. Ive highlighted bhp billiton because it is one of the biggest losers, but we are also seeing glencore down. Anglo american is set to cut for the First Time Since 2009, Holding Investors between and 00 and 11 court londo