The apple and google story plus also what is going on with the alpha that story. The factng in terms of that one has overtaken the other. That is going to be interesting. Ubs, interesting, not that interesting. The comparative with deutsche is interesting. Jonathon profit up 11 . Switch it up again, move it on. We are talking about google and the potential of that company taking on the market cap of apple. It was that energy was going to suffer and tech was the future. This time around, look at google versus apple. Is the story that apple has lost value. Amazing. Complete turnaround. Guy why is the Market Making that decision . Is it an innovation . The future will actually be the one generating the topline growth and apple will suffer. Where does the revenue come from . We can discuss that over the next 90 minutes. Let us corporate Caroline Hyde. Caroline senator ted cruz of texas has one bank the Iowa Republican caucus in an upset over donald trump. Hillary clinton and Bernie Sanders are virtually tied. Heefiant donald trump says will be whoever you put in front of him. I dont know who will win between bernie and hillary. I dont know what will happen with hillary. She has big problems. Had so many different indications and polls that we beat her and we beat her easily. We will go on to get the republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat hillary or bernie or whoever the hell they put up there. Caroline Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer says the u. S. Central bank will not design in advance it will raise rates this year. Any decision will be based on how the economy is going. Repeatedlyittee has repeated that the next policy decision will be data dependent. We will adjust policy appropriately in light of the economic events to best foster conditions persistent with the employment objectives. Tooline alphabet is poised leapfrog apple as the most valuable company in the world. Shares jumped. Based on online applets sales. The companys first Earnings Report under its new structure. Guy half an hour away into the European Market opening. Looks like it will be fairly negative. The fair value calculation coming looks like we will be down, not that much. Fairly flat at open. Down about. 3 of 1 . A lot of corporates on the move. Jonathon it is a stock story. Switching out the board. Checking out rent. That is the story of bp. Profit down 91 . Brent crude, 33 a barrel. The average, 32. The average in the Third Quarter was 42. Upstream of the business. Stronger yen for a second straight day. Crude, the oil is once again the story. Guy bp front and center. Profit humbly 91 . The average crude price drop to the lowest in more than a decade. Later in the program, we will speak to the companys ceo. A first here on bloomberg. Bloombergs with chief energy analyst. This is the first of the majors. Can we still call bpa major . These are bad figures. Awful figures for the market. We were expecting on an adjusted basis, about 800 million. Bp has it less than 200 million. Worrying is that bp and other Oil Companies have been relying for the last year on refining and trading to make up for the losses of their sustaining in the absence of production. In Fourth Quarter, that has disappeared or is a lot weaker than it has been in the past. Ining and trading delivered a billion dollars in profit. Half of what they did in the previous quarter. Fall in bp big numbers. The refineries were not able to profit as much as they have done in the rest of the year. Jonathon guidance, for the next quarter is not much better. When you put the story together, what you see is a company maintaining dividends, net debt the equity is up 3. 6 this year. I wonder, the dividend story. It will be the question again today for mr. Dudley. We will continue within the market, and we will continue taking debt for the time being. You see how much the debt ratio of bp is starting to move. A year ago, they were about 16. 5 percentage points. Now, 21 percentage points. Bp has suffered over the last 12 months because of low oil prices. The guidance for First Quarter is not pretty whatsoever. Lower refining market and also in the shortterm, bp thing they do not see any improvement in oil prices. The statement was negative in the guidance is we do not see the light at the end of the tunnel. Nervousuld we be particularly if you are an income investor. You have got to worry about that whether or not you will get paid. The big story has been pressure on earnings in the Energy Commodity space. That leads one to suppose that dividends for the whole market, Dividend Growth or this year is not a foregone certainty. Jonathon how do you take this one forward . Do you sell the stocks now . Do you go early . There are other areas in the market that yield handsomely. Moving outside the energy you will seece, anything exposed to the domestic european economy starting to really move. Services pmis look pretty good. Around 54 across europe. Manufacturing pmi is much closer to 50. Are in our dividend funds, we are much more exposed to domestic than we are to Global Manufacturing. Jonathon the one bright spot may be the space left on the balance it the Balance Sheet. It was a big surprise. Have thought bp would have tried to use that leverage and send out a positive message. If things continue to be bad in the First Quarter, when the results come in, that is where we will see the big reduction capex. N at 60 by cash flow next year. Now, he is saying he can do it even lower than 60 because it will reduce costs. To breach that position, it would be another on capex. An announcement in april when the First Quarter results come out. Thanks so much. Jonathon we will be speaking to the epa ceo bob dudley right here. What will he have to say about the global oil routes. Be sure to stay tuned for that. Swiss banks ubs net income rises getting a boost from a tax gain. We will hear from the ceo after this short break. Jonathon hello and welcome back to on the move. We are 17 minutes away from the european open. Bp is the story on the index this morning. Down 91 . A big miss for the oil major. Let us go over to Caroline Hyde. Caroline googles parent alphabet is poised to leapfrog apple as a most valuable company in the world. Shares jumped on out the thats on out the best better than expected results. On alphabets better than expected results. Has agreed to buy Home Retail Group. The deal combines two of the biggest retailers in the u. K. The acquisition would be. Ainsburys biggest buyout has said that come. Come. Net income in the Fourth Quarter be analysts and analyst estimates. Jonathon let us get back to ubs. Ceo told bloomberg that people are paralyzed by the market volatility. When you look at the dynamics of the Fourth Quarter and you look into our january start, you could see a trend continuing. There is a high level of risk aversion. People are happy with their Asset Allocation in general and they are paralyzed by this high volatility and the geopolitical and macroeconomic news ac. Jonathon let us bring in stephen. Great to have you with us. Ubs. Billion of net new money outflows from the Wealth Management unit. That tells the story of the last quarter. That has clearly been the big move in the market. Would be surprised if that is actual terms. It is a great business to be in but you do need flows. A lot of people are slightly been used about which asset class they should be favoring. Answer . T is the you are not getting much yield out of the bonds. At the moment, there is still a decent yield pickup you get in the equity market. But you have to deal with a lot of volatility. Jonathon which is sector do you go to . Lookinge moment, we are at much more domestic than global. In 2016, this prize could be if Global Manufacturing the surprise could be Global Manufacturing. You have to go domestic. You have got to be looking inside europe. It is a Domestic Services story. If you look at the areas that have done well, insurance continues to two prosper. The big story in insurance has been interesting. Yields nailed to the floor. Insurance companies are not making a lot of actual income. They have been very disciplined about underwriting and cost. Sense that they have addressed some of the issues that people thought they have on the Balance Sheets. They have good dividends as well. Ofyou look in other areas financials, asset managers, stock exchanges. Which are one of the few areas of the market that actually than if it from volatility. It tends to move up the jonathon the Investment Bank not so good at all. The big story for the u. S. Bank in the last quarter was getting expenses down. They could not cut costs quickly enough. My question is how much fat is there left to cut for the in Investment Banks across europe . Issues that they are all facing is that they cannot boost their profitability to leverage. Time, the volatility across a variety of assets means it is difficult to make money out of fixed income. It is a tough business to be in. Guy every line was down. Are there any good businesses in Investment Banking right now . Everything is suffering from the volatility. In the background, you have slight concerns about highyield and lower Investment Grade bonds. It is a pretty potent mixture. It will be a tell year again for a lot of Investment Banks. Guy thank you. We are minutes away from the open. We are looking at what is going on with bp being hit by the price of crude. Guy welcome back. This is on the move. We are 7. 5 minutes away from the european open. And a lot more earnings also. Let us go over to Caroline Hyde for the stopwatch. Caroline p is lowered. We are expecting this to drop. The reason is because of the disappointment in the 91 drop in their overall profitability. The reason is the oil price and the oil price dropping once again today. We are expecting bp to fall lower. It is currently at 36. 95. This Companies Market valuation below 100 billion for the first since the gulf of mexico spill in 2010. Key moves there for bp and for ubs. Even though we are seeing profits rise some 11 , it has largely been mass masked. This is a tax gain helping to offset the gain of Wealth Management. 3. 4 billion swiss franks. That is the biggest drop in Wealth Management spill in 2010. Key moves there for bp and for ubs. Even though we are since the Second Quarter of 2010. Some concerns for ubs. Do keep an eye on some good news for you because we have Home Retail GroupHome Retail Group likely to see a bounce. Beculation that they could eyed up by sainsbury. 152. 90. The offer finally comes in. 161. 3 p for Home Retail Group hurt 1. 3 billion pounds. Premium before the speculation came out about the offer. Is still with us from j. P. Morgan asset management. That story sounds incredibly negative to me. Sainsbury is struggling to figure out what is coming in. The credit story in the retail space is quite negative. If you look at what is going on in the retail space is there anything good . Across europe, consolidation. There is a sense and which people are having to adapt their businesses to the threat coming in from the discounters. Discounters have been around for a long time and they are starting to make their presence felt in the u. K. There has to be emphasis on cost. At the same time, what we should see over the next year is improved Consumer Confidence. Depending on which market you look at, spanish Consumer Confidence or italian, there are multiyear highs. It is not as dark as people think. Jonathon stephen will stay with us. Bp in focus. Can they maintain that dividend . That seems to be the problem. Not making up for the low oil price. Looks like the market will open softer. To the open you up in four minutes time when we return. Jonathon hello and welcome to on the move. From the start of the european trading session. Profits tumbling 91 missing estimates as the average crude price drops lower in the last decade. We are speaking with the ceo later in this hour. Rally in extended trade this after earnings. Ted cruz wins in iowa. Hillary clinton and Bernie Sanders virtually tied in the democratic contest. We are negative going into the open here in europe. Plenty going on. Jonathon it is a corporate story. Bp in focus across europe. Banking story front and center. Bs headline numbers decent Investment Banking numbers not so decent. Caroline risk aversion once again. A negative day on the market yesterday. Stocks in europe. Looks like it will be negative again. Concerns once again over oil. Oil trading lower as we get supply concerns from the u. S. Oil story again. Seeing phpg to be with a negative rating. The miners and the Oil Companies on the downside. Shell, they have had their ratings cut by s p. Clearly, risk aversion. Chinese shares bounce today. Very thin trading. Pboc in justhe cash ahead of next weeks holiday. The rest of japan, asia trading lower. Brent down by a percentage point. 33. The premium widening out again. The u. S. Contract 31. 25. 3. 5 millionout barrels. Many anticipating supply going to be a concern for oil once again. U. S. Dollar down, yen goes higher. More detail from asia. Haven seeing a slight that was the japanese yen. Looking at the stock today. Ubs, down almost 5 . It is not about the overall tax boeing the number. There was a concern that Wealth Management had its worst quarter ofce the Second Quarter 2010. Outflows. Investment banking not looking pretty. Ubs. Home retail dropping. The premium is 5. 5 higher. Sainsbury at last miss to go shopping. Last plans to go shopping. Deal go through . We still wait for bp to open. It is thought to be about 3 lower as profit is down 91 . Let me get you uptodate on where the stock market is trading. Ftse 100 down by a third of 1 . A busy hour ahead on on the move. We are working down the corporate earnings. Eurozone. , we get unemployment data. At noon, the Brexit Debate takes center stage. Heads can untangle the more intractable problems are in the united states, the Federal Reserve bank of kansas city will bes taking at 530 p. M. London time. Quarter stock fourth outcome saw a net new money outflow. Manus cranny is standing by to talk us through his conversation with the ceo. What did he say . It is a balancing act. The worst words in the world. Risk aversion. More pronounced in asia. Language used 2016 will be a tough year. Balancing between saving the investor with the dividend. Profitabilityent dropped by 47 in the final quarter of 2016. 63 Investment Bank down year on year. The equity division. Fx and credit did a little bit better. The business is under pressure and activity is under rusher. Has avidend, the market hefty expectation for this year and next. Are you back to into a corner in terms of the commitment . Our dividend is a reflection of a strong year. And also a reflection of a strong year in our operating profits. That is why our ordinary goes up 20 year on year because we had a strong operating environment in terms of profits. We are also adding . 25 of dividend as a special dividend because of the Deferred Tax Asset valuation. Manus when i pushed him harder, i asked if he was committing to the . 88 the market wants to see this year and he said it was too early to say but they are committed. Negative performance and strong headwinds. That is as the year kicks off. Jonathon in terms of negative rates, that is the big story globally. I wonder what he said you as he looks across the whole Income Network spectrum complex with negative rates all around. Manus first of all, they have already raised this issue back at the end of the Third Quarter when he pushed back on the profitability target. The issue is that these people suisseit sweeties all. They have been living with negative suisse for quite a while. We are getting used to manage in a negative rate environment for at least one year and longer if you look a certain parts of our business in terms of swiss francs. We are prepared to do that. You see that in the way we manage our Balance Sheet and our deposit base. To manageeady wired this challenging environment. Wired to manage a negative rates. Interesting words. They will take action where appropriate and they will manage the Balance Sheet. Very much along the same lines as julius yesterday. A tough opening for the stock. Down 4 . The Component Parts of this business are under pressure. The language they are using it will be a tough year ahead. Guy manus cranny out of europe. A big week for swiss francs swift banks. Swiss banks. Theidea was that ubs had right Business Model and was moving into matt into asset management. It