The brexit story is front and center in brussels today. The summit is an brussels to decide what David Cameron can bring home to the british people and what they will ultimately vote on will be in brussels. Lets update you on what else you need to know. Here is Caroline Hyde with your bloomberg first world news. Caroline David Cameron goes to brussels today, seeking to end months of negotiations. He will end a, four month referendum campaign, intending to secure th the u. Ks place. Minutes from the fomcs january meeting show they were worried about a series of disruptions that are likely to derail the projection of four rate increases this year. Japans latest trade data shows continued weakness in an economy that contracted in the last quarter. Exports sank 13 , the most since 2009. At least 28 people have been killed in an explosion in the turkish capital. The attack targeted a convoy of military vehicles. The president condemned the moral andbeyond all human boundaries. He said turkey will find those responsible and step up the fight against terrorism. Global news 44 hours a day, journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. Guy . Guy we are 30 minutes away from the European Equity market open. At this stagenk regarding the fair value of the terminal . 3 10 of 1 higher seems to be the call at the moment. Hill inallying on the the united states. Oil is still higher. Let me show you the other assets you need to Pay Attention to this morning. You are watching what is happening in turkey quite carefully. The dollar and turkish lira is up to tenths of 1 . Brent declined. We have weak export data out of japan overnight. Hat will be an interesting 4 story for the boj. The nikkei is up over 2 as we have seen that story evolve. What happened in the states overnight . Plus, that Strong Equity market rally. Should you sell in equities for this rally . To bob. T points to a very negative story for equities. We have seen some of it come through. Would you sell this rally . Bob yes, maybe not this week. But i think in the next couple weeks, yes. We were very oversold in risk assets. We want to believe central bankers are ahead of the curve again. They are clearly not. This is the feds seventh year into emergency policy and it is not working. Likewise for the bank of japan. The key thing is very High Expectations that the ecb deliver something next month. Midmarch, it is time to go again. Manusguy you still like your sp target . Bob yes, i think we are going to trade in the 1500s, before the end of p2. Guy is this just a lack in faith in Central Banks . Bob growth is in working. Rkingy framework isnt wo in terms of currency devaluation. Last year, the euro was very weak versus the yen. Japanese experts have not done so well in the last year. It is the same game we are playing. Fed, i thing is the suspect they are going to go once more. I think they have backed themselves into such a corner that they are probably going to go once more. Ultimately, the jobs data, the earnings data, i think it is going to basically take a slower. Down by moreis than 10 here. Bob i am independent. Guy how aggressive is the boj going to be . Bob i dont think there is a plan b. I think they have to keep going. You probably already have had guests on and other people talking to you about guy they were pretty close. Close, one level we are but there is a big leap forward that needs to be made. That is some years away and everyone hopes it does not come to that. But the key thing here is globally, we have a demographic profile which is not very good in most developed economies. That includes china. Populations are declining in the working era. In the toilet. If those two things are consistently the theme, i dont know how japan pays you back. I think they have to keep going and i think the yen is the key. Guy are you comfortable with the u. S. Paying you back . Bob the problem with the u. S. Is the could be offense is right now. The dollar is the worlds currency. If you go around the world, not many people outside of their basic trade in the World Economy need to own euros or yen. The entire world is always sure of dollars. It is different for the u. S. Guy where would you be pushing treasuries towards . Bob my targets at the beginning of the year were pretty much hit. 2. 50 in the third year. I would not be surprised to see alltime lows in 10 year yields and 30 year yields in the next quarters. People talk about bond yields. Is yielding 30 basis points, people say it cant go any lower. There is a very big, real return there. Stay with us. Plenty more from bob. Worlds one of the largest staffing companies. We will speak with the ceo about his outlook for 2016. We are going to talk about wage growth, that is next. Guy lets talk the u. S. Wage growth remains a major concern for the fomc. Lets get a view of one of the Worlds Largest staffing companies. We are joined now on the phone. Good morning to you. Congratulations on the numbers. Do you see any evidence in your which growth is starting to become a reality . In the u. S. , we see a 2 or 3 increase in wages. That is a signal of a good in economy, of labor markets. You can see it in the unemployment numbers. They are going down. We definitely see some evidence of that. Guy how hard is it to get the right people into the right jobs right now . You would have thought that we are starting to get a tight labor market . Is that actually the reality . To the headline numbers speak the truth . That, we are seeing which of course helps us. One of our fastestgrowing businesses in the u. S. Is our inhouse business where we created a dedicated workforce for predominantly bluecollar clients. It is definitely tougher than it was a year ago in the u. S. Guy how does the u. S. Compare with europe . The u. S. Is now in its third year of growth. The cycle is much more prolonged than it is in europe, where it is far more early days. The biggest region behind our increased growth in q4 is europe. It is gaining to 10 growth. So that is in q3, quite an upwards surge. Spain and italy have been doing well throughout the year and we also see germany moving into growth in q4. Guy how does that affect the way you are going to invest in business . It is not so much influence strategy. what we see in the early phases of the cycle, but we have been investing in headcounts in our american business. We will certainly be investing in our European BusinessGoing Forward if this trend persists. Guy are you worried about britain leaving the eu . I personally think britain should be worried about leaving the eu. We have an ok business in great britain. It is a midsized business for us, not the most profitable one. I dont think it would help the development of that business because of course, we rely on the economy. It is always a judgment call, but it would not be great for the british economy. Guy the migration story. Net positive or net negative . First of all, it needs to be handled a bit more decisively. On the one hand, there is still high and employment in europe. On the other hand, there is scarcity. If you look at the fugitive wave, people who can work, you should judge their employability. That is not happening yet. So, you s hould keep the people in. The rest is a more political decision. Guy thank you for your answers. It is interesting to see your numbers going through and fascinating to hear you talk about the business in the states. Jacques, the ceo of the huge Staffing Company randstad. We are talking about 2 3 growth in the states. That is what the fed wants to hear, but it is worried about inflation. You cant get a sustainable cycle of cpi inflation without sustainable wage inflation. You can to pockets of wage inflation, but we have got a very large portion of the economy. Aggregate wage growth in real terms. Aggregate wages today are lower than they were 1030 years ago. Something is not working. If it was that good, policy makers would not be talking about negative rates and more qe. The issue in the u. S. Is quite important. Productivity is really poor. When you have productivity doing what it is doing, what gives corporatare corporate revenues. Corporate profitability, i think it is going i think were going to see an earnings recession in the u. S. Bute is a demand issue, normally when they have this type of response, they increase prices. Corporates people. Ally, is to fire i think in the next couple quarters we are going to see that payroll data, which has already started to drift a bit weaker, continue on a weaker trend. That will be a real dilemma. That is when the fed will finally give up on hiking or trying to convince us that there will be two or three more hikes. Guy are they done . I suspect that we might get one more, maybe not in march. I have a really bad feeling and this is something kevin talk to me about it a while ago. In june, it looks set up for the fed to hike, just as the payroll data is drifting lower. At one level, i think the dollar is the least worst. On another level, as we have seen, we can see weakness in the dollar. I think the reality is that other Central Banks will be guy the market has already priced out the fed. It gives you a probability of when we are going to see a rate hike. There is a 0 chance of the way across the board. But if we get another hundred points with s p, we mike price hike. Rice in another the dollar initially weakened because we priced out the fed. The ecb and the bank of japan and the pboc do not want to see their account strengthened against the dollar. Their attempt will be to weaken against the dollar. There is always a bit of a lag here. We are trading who is ahead in that race. You, bob janjuah. Up next, we are going to look at the potential corporate movers. Nestle reported earnings earlier this morning. Not a good set of numbers, some would argue. 8 51 in1 in london and paris. Lets talk about some of these stocks we need to be paying attention to. Here is Caroline Hyde. Caroline lets Start Talking about nestle. This company has been treating it sales growth. This is a chart of its stock prices. It has been a volatile 12 months for nestle. You know kitkat, you know it, you eat it. It had 4. 2 growth, trailing their target of 5. 4 . It did just me analysts estimates. This is a company with a presence in asia and africa. They are doing well in the u. S. , up 5. 5 . They are being hurt by weak demand in asia. Are overall still saying they are going to be hurt by ever softer prices. It is worth remembering, nestle is your Biggest European Company by market value. It has got the biggest number rating on the stock 600. This is a company we have to see as important. Have a look at air france. It is going to be arriving today. The share price could actually move up from 7. 48 . We are expecting air frances numbers. We see the biggest carrier with its first annual operating profit since 2010. The oil price actually has a benefit for these companies. Low oil prices might not be around forever and therefore, they are still trying to restructure this business and drive down costs. They warned us about this deal with pilots. It is still very crucial for their productivity and overall to reduce their cost basis. Price is very beneficial for the airlines. Down byseen the stock 50 over the course of 12 months. 10 . Down by some why . A turret issue. There could be an issue with its jubilee. Back to you. Thank you very much indeed, caroline. Bob, the correlations are beginning to break down a little bit between oil and risk assets. Bob again, oil was very oversold, but there is a real hope or desperation to believe that the saudis, russians, and iranians will do the right thing. I dont believe that for one minute. I think each of these three owntries ahave their agendas and central to their own agendas is to keep pumping. That will not change anytime soon. Guy a friend of high yields in that scenario, then . Bob the u. S. Highyield market is very Energy Centric and therefore, is a problem. The one thing that people are not really focused on is the fact that it is not just energy. There are general problems, but also in particular there was an awful lot of financing put in place for housing, roads, and restaurants. That is going to be hard to repay. So, i think there is a broader highyield. Guy bob stays with us. Up next, we are going to talk to the Deutsche Bank ceo. What is the volatility doing to his business . Plus, the european open. It looks like stocks are going to open on the front. Moments awayust now from the start of european trading. Equities trading higher in asia. We have stocks extending their winning streak yesterday. Fears, the minute show the officials already signaling why they might scale back on their rate hike projections. Brexit the battle, David Cameron heads to brussels. Ok, lets talk about where we are going. A decent rally x today yesterday, looks at that could be extended. You get the fair value, looks like well have a problem. On the Caroline Hyde now. Already on oure longest winning streak for global stock since november. We were up yesterday in europe, we will indeed see that Risk Appetite flow in from asia. We have traded a coming from the likes of japan and concerns about china. Creeping a little bit higher, but ppi the overall product being the second with overcapacity. That is what were hearing from the bureau chief in china. For a 47th a month. Is it really a positive . Or is it offering cheaper loads once again. That will be fueling investor appetite. Cac opening a little bit higher. We see air france push higher as they post a profit for the First Time Since 2010. Some of the pharmaceutical is really going lower this morning. We saw a little bit of a pullback in terms of their probability because oil in the gas prices. Lets have a little look at what is going on in the euro. Lets look at some of those risk indicators we have been keeping our eye on. Oil is pushing the market higher. The reason, you ron is imminent iran is seemingly backing this halt in production that we will be freezing productions is up at record high levels, how much of a hit with that be to the oil market . Goldman sachs thinks not a much. We are seeing monday moving out of what is usually deemed a haven and into bonds across the board. I wanted to focus we saw japan so far at a negative right for the first time that is happened. Money going into greece as well. Across the board, a lot of buying in the debt market. Lets have a look at what is happening in equity markets. I want to look at a convertible bond they are selling. They will sell 2. 9 billion. Ounds to vodafone they could buy back some of those shares when the convert in 18 months. You see the market is still a little worried. Nestle down by 3. 3 percent. If the slowest smallest annual ines growth gain for nestle six years. The posted 4. 2 sales growth but that is not living up to their own targets. The longterm target is 5 or 6 . They havent achieved that in four out of the eight years that the ceo has been at the helm. Air france, look at that up for the First Time Since 2010. They still needed to deal with that pilot. Guy a quick and dig around these markets to see what is going on, this is the map on the stoxx 600, tech stocks have done pretty well. Areth care is down, you seeing that kind of rotation out of safety into the more riskier assets in terms of the equity focus morning. Energy is down, just a word of caution, shell has gone negative today. That is affecting what is happening in the energy sector. Shell is down on dividend, be aware of that. Energy off, but shell is a big part of that story. Another thing to update you on, indonesia has just cut rates to 7 from 7. 2 . Lets find that what happened overnight. Rough day across the asiapacific with the regional benchmark advancing on the back of that strong rally in u. S. Shares. Investors believe last weeks sharp selloff has been overdone. Were seeing more risktaking. Risk assets have generally been taken off the table. That led to a rally in the nikkei today. Watch closely mitsubishi and. Ujitsu softbank seeing a selloff as did the tire maker bridgestone. Across the region we watched the pi numbers. And p factory gates inflation moderated. That signals demand is beginning to stabilize. An initial lift to stocks help for the recent stimulus him and the comments by the peoples bank of china governor. Not enough to get the shanghai composite in positive territory to finish the day. It was fractionally lower. Australia, miners led the event. Despite a weaker consumer confidence, we did see the top 50 index in wellington posting in advance of about. 4 . Zeb joining us out of hong kong with what happened overnight. Volatility continues to be a big story. The net revenue increased by 60 reaching the highest level since the financial crisis. What is the outlook of the year given the volatility we are seeing . Now on thens us phone from frankfurt, good morning. Put me through what the volatility has done to your business. Good morning, im happy to be with you today. We have seen volatility that is a little more accentuated than normal because a number of events combining and coinciding. You have had a turn in u. S. Interest rates and you have had china growth rebalancing. If Commodity Prices under pressure. It is quite a lot. Volatility has helping us a bit here. Guy can you give us an idea of how much . In kind of meaningful terms how can you qualify it . En in general, were much happier if volatility is spread out over a longer. Longer periods of time. It happening in a compressed time period is not ideal. You have some highvolume and futures of various products types. Then there is a halt and activities trophy thereafter. People are trying to reorient. Bitvents are a little dissipated, it is more helpful. I would not overestimate that volatility. You are a guy who knows how banks work. Are you worried about the way banks are working right now in europe . Carsten i think the banks have job in tremendous reforming on the regulatory intervention. Taking the liquidity, the funding ratios, and i think the around place action of banks is basically a reassessment of the business. Odel and future profitability it is a function of all of those changes. It is nothing to do in my of the with any stability around the banks. I think the banks are in pretty good shape. Guy do you think it is an opportunity for your business what were seeing . Some fairly aggressive shifts are und