Polls show that Governor John Kasich may be pulling ahead. Trump made a few other tweaks to his schedule this weekend that seemed designed to tampa down emotions after violent protests a rocket at chicago on friday night, forcing the cancellation of a large rally and resulting in several arrests. Millions of people have rallied across brazil, protesting against corruption and calling for the impeachment of the president. They marched along copacabana, through the center of sao paulo. Brazil is suffering its worst recession in decades and dozens of lawmakers and Business Executives arent embroiled in a corruption investigation. At least 34 people have been killed in an explosion in on ankara. A suspected suicide bomber blew up a car close to the Prime Ministers Office. This comes less than a month after another suicide bomber killed dozens of soldiers in a convoy passing through the city. Qaeda saylinked to al they led an attack on sunday that left at least 22 people dead in the ivory coast. It is the third assault on a west African Hotel since november. The ivory coast had been on high alert since november, when militants linked to al qaeda attacked a hotel in mali, leaving 20 dead. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories online. Anna thats whats happening around the world. As for the markets, lets get to nejra cehic. With analysis for us. Asia has strengthened. Nejra absolutely. Asian stocks are extending the global rally, the msci hitting a two month high. We have a lot of news out of china over the weekend the shanghai composite had its biggest gain in more than a week after the regulators signaled it would maintain support for equities. What i want to highlight is the aussie dollar. Here is where we are seeing the sign of Risk Appetite, rising to an eightmonth high. What it shows is the aussie dollar really defying concerns about china, which is australias biggest export market. But i want to show is how the aussie rally has been outpacing gains and commodities. The white line is the bloomberg commodity index, which tracks returns and commodities. Anna you have been tracking the chinese currency as well. Take us through that. Nejra absolutely. What we saw is the offshore yuan decline after Chinas Central Bank governor offset excess of Monetary Policy not needed to hit the growth target. I want to show the divergence between the yuan strengths itsnst the dollar versus weakness against the bloomberg version of a basket of currencies, which measures the yuan versus 13 Exchange Rates. This white line has dropped to its weakest since december, 2014. That is what i want to highlight the stealth decline. Finally, i want to bring up u. S. Treasuries. Its a big week for Central Banks. Easing in europe and japan has pushed yields below zero in trillions of dollars of bonds. That has boosted demand for treasuries, and may mitigate any impact the fed rate hike and forecasters are now expecting 2. 35 to end the year at after a projection of 2. 82 in january. Drop inally showing the u. S. 10 year yield forecasts. With a look atic some of the things driving markets. Lets bring in manus cranny. Good to see you. Move. Anchoring on the what are the thoughts going into the program . That story board has been created, and if you look around the world, it goes back in with what you said at the start of the show, about that risk revival. Is this the risk revival n expansion bya the European Central bank, by additional stimulus coming from the bank of japan . What will they do in terms of signaling i thought it was a great piece on the terminal over the weekend, which said it is not about what you do, it is very much about how you do it apropos mario draghi, who went more negative and cut his Interest Rates. His message was that we have reached down the deal, the low point in rates. Picking up on everything you u. S. We have japan, the central bank meets on wednesday, and the euro is hoping the u. S. Will do more for it. Be interesting to see how the Central Banks that will be meeting and there are so many manus kazakhstan and chile [laughter] anna whether they will add to this. We got this Risk Appetite continuing, and that is being picked up, and we got positive remarks from the chinese, but oil is retreating, and that hasnt been the case in recent sessions. Usually we see the stoxx come down. Gold is going higher. We are seeing commodities rally this year. Gold has also been rallying, which is on. Which is odd. Manus you talk about oil when i left of the terminal it was still over 40. What you have is that progressive story that we have talked about quite a lot, which is outside of opec, a reduction in terms of supply, and is that a real reduction in terms of supply . Nearly 50 ,ied by so that will have a big impact. Anna we will have some analysis of that later in the program. Thank you very much. The u. K. Chancellor George Osborne has set the stage for a number of budget cuts in the face of what he calls great Economic Uncertainty. Speaking on sunday, he said that the government must be proactive and prepare the u. K. Economy for future shocks. Budget isage in this that the world is a more on certain plays than any time since the financial crisis, and we need to act now so we dont pay later. That is why i need to find Additional Savings by the end of the decade, because we have it within our means to get back here and that is how we make britain fit for the future. Anna also speaking, the shadow chancellor john mcdonald. He said there needs to be more money invested by the government instead of pursuing austerity. We dont have that sound, unfortunately, but we will bring it to you later. Lets bring in the founder of Capital Economics, who joins us on set to talk about the looming budget. Then we will talk about brexit. First, lets deal with the budget. Todayid in an article that you want more efficient on taxation. Not just tackling the deficit you want to see big changes around taxation. But you looking for . Concernedrticularly with personal taxes. They have done a good job with corporation tax, because even when they didnt have that much money to fund tax cuts, they had a plan. Companies were able to know what the rate would be doing in the years time, and that is useful. With personal taxes and the coalition government, he did something similar with regards to the taxfree allowance, the ambition that should rise. With personal taxes, we dont know. Will he cut the top rate . 40p being the National Tax Rate for millions . Anna do you think it is likely we will get something cutting that top rate, really addressing the number of people who creep up into it . Know. Ont i think things have changed when ita few weeks ago was said that he would make a major reform to pensions taxation, that was supposed to go to clobber an middle classes. He has no road back. I thought that was a political cover, and now that he has the cover he may well balk at eight. The weather he increases it, i think he will do something. Anna a lot of people characterize the statements we got in november as backing off from full austerity. That seems to be a characterization high in the media. Shows got a chart that where the burden of austerity will fall, and as we talked about many times, it is this year and next year when we will see some of the austerity hitting home for a positive number on that chart. Do you think what message will be get on that overall need to tighten things up . That is clearly the message he was giving. Quite apart from whatever he might do this wednesday, already the fiscal position is due to tighten. He will blame the outside world chancellors always do. Things are terrible out there therefore we have to squeeze in here. Anna [laughter] we sit here talking about the machinations of the Global Economy all the time, and there is weakness in china, and even if you are somebody who likes the figures out of china or believes wholeheartedly in them, 6. 5 over the next five years you have got a point about the weakness. There is no doubt that the world environment is a bit soft. But its not as bad as people thought it was. China looks to have stabilized. But the World Economy is reasonably weak. The big question is what do you do . In the old days, they may have said, right, this is the time for tax cuts and higher spending. This or osborne did the exact opposite. He says everything is weak, so this is the time to tighten your belt. Anna should be the time for big investment projects . He was talking to the shadow chancellor as many chancellors before him, he said you shouldnt be cutting that kind of spending. You should be still investing. I think there are two questions that have to be distinguished. The first this should we be spending more on investment and borrowing to fund it . Personally, i think probably not. The idea that this is a free lunch i dont buy. Anna even with rates so low . Yes, because the tech numbers are so high. That within the total of expending, i think yes, frankly he hasnt cut current spending i would cut cut current spending enough. Anna thank you so much. He stays with us. Lets move on 6 43. Suicide car bombing in turkey killed four people and wounded many more. It is the first time ankara has been hit in many months. We are joined now from istanbul. Bring us uptodate with the latest situation on the ground. The terror strikes turkey once again. At least 34 people are dead and more than 125 wounded. The explosion took place in the heart of ankara at 7 00 p. M. Local time on sunday. In the square 200 meters away from the Prime Ministers Office. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but according to the states home government tv channel, the government blames the kurdish tkkk. Ry group the anna tell us what the government is doing to take on the tkk. Thats right. This is the first time ankara has experienced a terror attack in the last five months. Less than a month ago, 30 people were killed during a car bombing. That attack was claimed by the Kurdish Group tak, which has affiliations with the pkk. Last year in october, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for twin bombings that took place in ankara, killing 100 people. It is worth noting that a few days ago, the u. S. Consulate in ned of terrorist attacks and cited specific information. Anna thank you. Joining us from istanbul. Up next, a nation divided. The split over merkels decision lays there as her party takes a battering in state elections. We will have analysis, next. Anna welcome back. A live shot of new york. , verys are suggesting get or very early, lets the Bloomberg Business flash. Thank you. Is buying Civic Property assets for 4. 8 billion, leaving civic with a 10 stake in the company. It comes as china looks to reform state owned enterprises and unlock value from the portfolio. They have agreed to sell more than one million shares as part of the transaction. The stock gained in hong kong trade overnight. On Insurers Group has agreed to buy a Strategic Hotel and result in blackstone for 6. 5 billion. Transactionecord for chinese buyers of American Real estate, giving the insurer a range of 15 u. S. Luxury resource from san diego to manhattan. They completed the acquisition just three months ago. A Property Developer is getting into the Railway Business with an agreement to buy a stake in the metro group. It is part of a Restructuring Plan which would see them buying more than 9 million in assets. The Company Plans to fund the acquisition mainly by selling new shares to shenzhen metro. The stock surged on the news by the most in over a year. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna thank you. Refugee plans laid there as the Democratic Union party failed to capture two western states and Regional Elections. We are joined by hans nichols with analysis. Good morning. What did the elections tell us about her positions . Hans good morning. They are telling us that voters are searching for an alternative, disappointed with Angela Merkel and the direction she is taking the country. It is hard to underscore how disastrous this is, the decline that the cdu has had in key states. What you see there on the map is what they held onto in the east. The big thing look at that blue state. 4 unemployment rate. By all accounts, things should be going well. But that is where it failed to win back the state. They also didnt win back any other western states. When you look at what the alternative has done this is the right wing party that initially saddled itself in opposition to the euro and now they have gone ahead and moved to the right, especially on the refugee question. Saxony goteland, 24 . That is a remarkable story. When you look at the cdu, merkels party, and the amount of votes it has lost,. It really tells the story they lost 12 in wartburg, which is a bad result. This is a clear sign to Angela Merkel that voters are not happy. But there has not been any indication, any signaling, that she is going to change your tactic. With hering to stick refugee policy regardless of how unpopular it is. There are not any obvious challenges to her and her own party. This gives you a sense that in 18 months, close of the two leading Political Parties could take clobberings in the national election. You could see them come in to parliament in germany, a remarkable moment with a remarkable 18 months ahead. Here in germany they will continue to debate refugee policy. Anna thank you very much. They have a conference later. The u. K. Chancellor George Osborne believes it is absolutely right for the u. K. To confront the issue of European Union membership had on. He said it sunday, is the greatest judgment the country has had to make in a generation. This is not some political game. This is the biggest decision facing this country, and the people facing it will not be you and me. The hills farmer in wales, the central worker in walmouth. They depend on an open it engaged European Union. Anna chancellor osborne speaking there. The founder of Capital Economics is still with us. A longterm advocate or of brexit, would you go that far . Me . No, certainly not. A rubber voting in the 1975 referendum to stay in. It is really only in the last few years i have become amenable. Anna mark carney was really put on the spot, and he described the brexit vote as the largest a mystic threat to the economy. Does it feel like you are playing with fire . Frankly, no. I think he has grossly exaggerated the risks. There are some risks, but there are much bigger risks out there. My firm thinks about the future in the forecast, i dont start off with what do we assume about the brexit . There are far bigger things out there. The oil price, interestrate policy around the world, inflation. I think brexit is a way down the list. Anna some economists talk about what could happen in the shortterm as a result of their vote to leave. They say we could have a sterling prices, a debt crisis, a recession. Many economists in the survey went much higher on brexit. Do you not see the things happening, or are you prepared to take that shortterm risk for longterm gain . I wouldnt put any weight on the bloomberg survey, forgive me. Anna [laughter] i draw a distinction between the recession and the pound, partly on the brexit fears. I think that is very good news, its fantastic. I would like it to fall further. General debt crisis . I dont think so. The u. K. Will not change as currency it will still be good credit. Anna a crisis and a recession . No, no. When we vote to come out of the eu, things will be exactly the same. And it will be the same for quite a long time. There is a twoyear period in which we have to negotiate. Anna what kind of effect will this have . What sort of proportion of city jobs will go to paris, dublin other places . Are carter talks about contingency plans around that. Buthere will be some jobs, this idea that all big banks will transfer wholesale to frankfurt is quite ludicrous. Not long ago, these big firms were complaining about the eu bonus cap. Of course, if we had to impose it, we could resent that. The people that the idea that people will vote in droves anna you cant use this as a jumping off point. Absolutely. Some big banks will have to set up some sort of operation on the continent. The question is how much of their business do they move . I think they will want to move the bare minimum. Anna thank you for joining us, great to see you. Six 66. Asian stocks soar, and a dozen Central Banks submit Rate Decisions. We take you through all the market and policy action this very busy monday. A big week on the subject of Central Banks. How much will they support Risk Appetite in the markets . Anna split decisions, spots stocks in shanghai john kerry to curb panic, it the pboc governor strings,g the purse George Osborne set the stage for more austerity in the u. K. Budgetary germany divided. Her because of the refugee policies. Welcome to the program. It is just on 7 00 in the morning here in london. Let us get straight to what the futures are telling us about where the Europea