Transcripts For BLOOMBERG On The Move 20160329 : vimarsana.c

BLOOMBERG On The Move March 29, 2016

Good morning. I think there are two stories when you talk about. What is happening with his hijacked aircraft. It has landed in cyprus. People will be asking questions about Egyptian Security and zoomable he the hijacker has had some access to the cockpit. Post 9 11, that is a big nono. Hans that is the surprising story. We dont know if they got the cockpit but we know they have landed. Although they were able to diver the plan, that doesnt mean they were able to get inside whatever reinforced doors. We are going to see whether or not yellen is going to reiterate her dovish position. The dovish position is the one that is on the table. The get what those governors forget what those governors and president s have been saying. Guy it is turning out to be quite a battle. My question is can should be more dovish . Dovish, the is as dollar is not going to move much. It is interesting to see where market is priced in. We are 28 minutes until European Equity market open. The legacy from the states looks great. Alexey from asia was in great. The legacy from asia was not great. But he pulled up. 8 . The ftse pulled up. 8 . A fairly robust start to the posteaster trading session. Hans the could playoff what is happening with the yen. That could playoff what is happening with the yen. A look at other things. The shanghai composite is over is down over 1 . The brent really pushing close to that 40 a barrel. Lets get more now with camus utha. Kum kumutha u. S. Apple has dropped it unlocked the phone with an Unnamed Third Party and without compromise in any data at apple says the case should have never been brought. Police have shot a man after he pulled a weapon at a u. S. Capitol checkpoint. Officials have identified him as 66yearold larry dawson of tennessee. They say he was previously known last october, arrested for disrupting house proceedings and yelling he was a prophet of god. He was taken to a local hospital where police say he is in critical condition. Egypt air has set a flight from alexandria to cairo has been hijacked. According to the ri k, the plane has landed at the airport in cyprus. We will bring you more on that story throughout the morning. Belgian police trying to identify a suspect linked with two suicide bombers. Released footage of the man and appealed for information about him. That is a number of People Killed in last week attacks last week attacks rose to 35. The video the third bomber was released from custody yet eradicate radical ideology from his country. That is after a taliban suicide bomber killed more than 70 people including many women and children at a park in lahore. Must take this war to the door of terror suspects before they are able to hit. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Guy. Guy thank you very much indeed. Economy likely to be at the top of the agenda. Yellens address comes as the dollar reports shows personal spending barely increased in february. This is the number that the fed looks at you they do not have the Inflation Numbers they need. The backdrop and pimco saying they believe they will see yellen is front and center. They do see upward pressure and inflation on the horizon. I think we need to listen to janet yellen your she is the most important voice in the room. Will see if she is able to snuff all of this out. Really, that was we story after she gave that super dovish speech a couple of weeks back. Guy lets bring another voice into the conversation. You are focused on asset classes. You look at the big picture stuff. She is the most important such a banker in the world. Everybody is hanging on to every word. That is paying too much attention to these changes in data. It is really the longer term trend that is more instructive. Both modestimes inflation in the u. S. Headline inflation and core inflation is up every five years. Average hours, youre starting to see Wage Inflation close to cpi there. After that starts to look, the economy is still moving robustly. Although it is slower than we would like. Try to figure out how to get the big calls right. Dollar has been the story with what is been going on with oil and broad commodity story. You look at japan equities, is that the first step . Simon it is. Currency is the big market move of any class. That is key. You can see the effect it has had on japan. You have seen the yen strength hen. Yen strength a Dollar Strength plateaus, that is good for lots of other things. You might see stability through the commodity set. It relieves pressure on the yen currencies. It relieves pressure on chinese outflows. I think there is positive. Hans you win the award for insulting central bankers before me saying janet yellen is the most important. I dont know how mr. Draghi would feel. I would leave that to you. Normally i am the one that offends them. How we wait with the central bank John Williams is not a voting member. How much should we wait with nonvoting members . Do we somehow discount their views because they are not voting . Simon it depends on the track record of what they have said. How accurate has that been . They arent nonvoting then they are not going to have too much effect. It is interesting to take lots of different information, but you have to decide what do you focus on, give credibility to and discount. Ive much of your seen a couple of headlines so we will come back. Egypt air is confirming that flight ms 181 has been hijacked. We will see a statement come through shortly. Lets talk to our middle east editor, elliott golf can. Kine. Liott got was an wednesday and it internal flight we understand it was an internal flight from alexandria to cairo. The plane was hijacked and landed in cyprus. Read about an hour ago. There are different reports coming out cyprus right about an hour ago. There are different reports coming out. Saying thereorts was one hijacker. Television, i hijacked the hijacker has not made any demands. I spoke to an airport that said arehts heading to monica not being diverted to tel aviv, but the pilot chooses themselves were to be diverted to. There could be a number of airports around the region. In terms of the hijacked plane, it is on the tarmac. We have yet to see any demands from the hijacker himself. What is been a very worrying situation for those with loved ones and friends on board this flight. It raises more questions about egypt egyptian airport security. Many people believe to be a shutdown and [indiscernible] tourism which is a big part of the economy. Alien elliott golf can. Barclays says recent price gains were not based on underlying improvement. That story next. Guy welcome back hans welcome back to on the move. This get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Kumutha good morning hans. The u. S. Has dropped its case against apple after successfully hacking into the iphone of one of the San Bernardino terrorists. It a lot the phone with an Unnamed Third Party. And without compromise in any data. Apple says the case shouldve have never been brought in Virgin America has said to brought. Virgin america has said Richard Branson put it up for sale according to people familiar with the matter. Discussions between Virgin America and the two bidders are ongoing. It could be announced as early a deal could be announced as early as next week. The owner of the sheridan, westin and w hotel brands says it has received a 14 billion offer for chinas insurance. Valued at 13 billion. That is your bloombergs business flash. Guy. Guy commodities including oil and copper at the risk of recent advances in improved on the metals. That is from barclays. Investors rush for the exit. Is going to be interesting to keep this one around. You are right and you got your timing right, you have made a ton of money. You look at some of the ,aluation stories on oil stocks i think they are more stretched than they have ever been. Simon in the oil space, the problem is the american shale guys come in [indiscernible] it is not too far off the new marginal low production rates. Is they aremic backed by debt. You have to keep paying your bonds you have to keep in your bonds. That has a different dynamic given that supply can come more quickly and suppress that price. Hans when you look across the globe, how we understand the differentiate and differentiate between the emerging markets. What you see potential value guy where do you see potential value . Simon it is more in depth than that. It is at a company level, rather than country by country. The external managers we use, for example for more opportunities in india than base, and that is in the hardware software, not necessarily internet linked. Beyond i. T. , also in financials. Finding opportunities there, especially in the services area. It is more specific. As we know, you can split the e. M. Companies into commodity anducers and nonproducers the genetic divergence they have experienced recently. Guy Simon Nicholas joining us. He will stay with us. Moments away from the european open. It is the battle of the charts. We will walk you through ive got a nice little chart from the treasuries. A lovely morning in london. That is what you want to see after a rainy easter weekend. We are going to take a break. See you in a moment. Guy we are nine minutes away from the market open. Lets update you on what is happening with the egyptian airliner. And egypt aircraft has been diverted and egypt aircraft has been diverted to cyprus. The 81 people on board. Details are very sketchy at the moment. That are some reports that the hijacker is wearing an explosive else. That is unconfirmed an explosive belt. That is unconfirmed. The aircraft is in cyprus. Lets update you on how asian trading has been taking place. Session been a choppy to do since we have heard that news filtered through from egypt. These losses and china etc. These losses in china exacerbated. Holding on to todays lows. This picture was brighter there. We have seen hong kong come back online for the First Time Since the easter break. Theres been property stocks. A good day for korea. Up. Hang seng the first gain there in five sessions for korea it in japan, the nikkei 225, down by the fact that 1500 stocks traded dividends taking a lot of shine. A pretty terrible day in australia. 1. 6 . Everyone is awaiting Janet Yellens speech later. We have seen a lot of focus coming through into currencies. The offshore chinese is weak. 6. 50 159. The kiwi along with the korean ahead of yellens speech. Guy. Guy Juliette Saly joining us. You into the battle of the charts. I am going to start. It is my prerogative. Hans nichols can go second. I take you to this chart which is one relating to the treasury. What it is showing is we have a situation where increasingly money is being taken out by sovereign welfare wealth fund and being replaced in the treasury market. We do not have accurate data. The data that we saw here is proxy that they use to determine hedge funds. We saw a sharp spike. That we about this is could see more volatility in the future. Significantly more. Around events like today with janet yellen speaking. Hans that is a fair point. Im not going to preach judge. m not going to prejudge this i build discharge in mind with some of his predilections. Looking at individual countries and you look at these are inflows into emerging markets. These are week by week data. You see a strong trend. More money. Investors are liking and showing an appetite for risk. Looking at individual stocks in emerging markets. That is my attempt to flatter you. Well see if that cheap trick works. The decision is yours. The second chart. It has been the opposite with outflows being massive. Business dollar weakness has been supportive to em currencies. It is a risk on move to start to see flows back in. And stability coming back the dollar being weak or, you have seen some em currencies respond being weaker, you have seen some em currencies respond. Start putting some money at work, whether it is bonds followed by equities in the end. [indiscernible] tuesday morning, when for hans nichols. Simon nicholas is going to stay with us. European equity markets as we head into the open are called 1 higher. Looks like that is what we are going to have. The ftse future at. 5 higher. Guy good morning. You are watching on the move. Alongside hans nichols. The vulnerable dollar. Will yellen put the back in the cage . Japan. Hifts in react . L the yen the indian Prime Minister hits back at critics who say he got lucky with lower oil prices. Hans most futures are pointing up. Nobody is about more than 1 . The dax. Is getting close thes head out there to european open. Lets get to nejra cehic with the touchscreen. Nejra we sell losses with asia. Asian stocks dropped for the first time in three days. With the losses in japan and china. We did see European Equity futures pointing higher. We are still waiting for some of these markets to open. We will come back to that in a second. You can see the ftse 100 opened a pretty much unchanged, as well as the cac 40. We have been watching the dollar. The bloomberg dollar index had six days of gains last week, the longest run of rains in two months. F gains in twos in two months. This does largely hinge on the jobs data we will get this friday. Of course, any further dollar gains will be based on expectations of a fed rate hike, and also any other comments you might get particularly, from yellen today. Wti there is down more than 1 . This is on its fifth day of decline. Rent crude is down for a fourth day. We are seeing a weaker oil price we will the weekly data get on wednesday, which is expected to show that u. S. Stockpiles have stayed at that record high, the highest level since 1930. Let me take you back to the equity market open to see if we have seen any movement. The dax is up. 6 . The cac 40 is a. 7 . We are seeing this ballot in europe after the losses and asia. Guy thanks. I want to take you to the sector story and show you what is happening. You are not getting the big rotation we have seen in other sessions. The telecommunications and financials sectors are rising. People have rotated money out of health care. They started putting money back into health care. That story looks like it is being unwound a little bit. I want to show you this chart. I have not had time to label it so i will put it on the screen for you and show you what is happening. This is easyjet at the open of trade this morning. You can see a fairly sharp spike in easyjet in the wake of what is happening. Circling. Is bit of a puzzler, but maybe that is just the open reaction. Is i guess the argument they are not flying to egypt anymore. Maybe that is the trade people are taking on this morning. I could be totally wrong about that. Hans that is a thread the needle trade. That shows some real confidence in their strategies. Lets get to the japanese Prime Minister. He is holding a News Conference later this morning. It comes after a slump in retail sales. Figure seven at the or a fell 2. 3 , more than double the forecast. Was helped by the leap years extra shopping day. This is putting more pressure on the central bank to get in more fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. Lets get out to brian fowler in tokyo. But as the data leave us in terms of a general assessment . Brian as you said, the data today implied weak domestic demand. This is a big problem for Prime Minister abe. Profitsknow, the record are the last couple years were supposed to start a Virtuous Cycle that led to more spending and more domestic investment. That is not happening. We just finished the ways negotiations and those turned out to be quite underwhelming this time around. You can expect that consumers are going to be reluctant tos spend in the coming months. They have less money. Abe is in a pretty difficult position right now. Brian, can we talk about the position he finds himself in. Should he, as someone is suggesting, spend the money he is getting from the windfall on high speed trains, rather than hanging onto it . Icause if he hangs onto it, guess that is a kind of net negative for the economy. How much pressure is he under to spend that money . Brian that is a very good question, very timely. We actually expect mr. Abe to touch on that today. The purpose of this press conference is to celebrate the passage of the budget for the coming fiscal year, but we also to talk about expert fiscal stimulus. We think nursery spending will be a big part of it. A few weeks ago he took a lot of heat for a blog post that sparked a lot of interest. He was questioned about it in parliament, by woman who said working women in japan cannot get real jobs because there is not enough they care for their kids. So, we expect that to be a big part about what mr. Abe talks about today when he talks about fiscal spending. Hans i am glad you brought up that nursery point. Maybe you can helmet understand these articles. So much of the coverage in japan talks about their declining nursery and the declining demographic challenges. Why is it that only now there is a discussion about added teachers for Nursery Schools . Brian that is a good question,. A very good question. There is no question that especially in tokyo the population in tokyo keep in mind, is actually growing and the rest of the country is declining. Tokyo is a unique economy unto itself. The demographics actually have an increased population and a very healthy birth rate i think in tokyo, well, relatively healthy. Is there is aw push to get more people to participate in the labor force. You are running up against very long health limits in terms of day care. We have people of bloomberg we of women who struggle. They cant get back to work because they cant get their kids into nurseries for months and months. There is a long waiting list. It is something we all experience. Guy brian, thanks very much. Brian, all mixed up in women omics. Invested in japan . Yes. Guy why . Power, ifbe came to you have understood what he wants to achieve, then it has not been an easy trade, but it has been something whereby the weakness of the yen that was the first start initially. You can see the market is up 100 from one he became her minister. He currently has only weakened by about 30 . There is a lot more going on and that is about the Earnings Growth. It is one of the fe

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