Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Street Smart With Trish Regan And

BLOOMBERG Street Smart With Trish Regan And Adam Johnson April 9, 2014

Here. Ayo will be all that and more coming up. Lets get to the rally. Effect minutes having an on Investor Sentiment right now. Looks like Interest Rates are low for as long as you can the out there. I want to talk about facebook because we have seen this big movie and momentum stocks recently, stocks that have climbed and climbed and climbed. Facebook has pulled back recently along with other momentum stocks. It is up again today with other momentum stocks. In addition, we had a couple of analyst notes out on facebook, one from susquehanna and from suntrust analysts. Shares should be bought in advance as ad rates at facebook rise. Looking at alcoa. It came out with his numbers yesterday with earnings beating estimates. Comments about aluminum demand broadly, saying it will out face supply this year. That that could be changing on a more permanent basis would be positive for alcoa and other producers. A big decline today sort of bucking the trend. And through it if intuitive vinci robotthe da sales plunging, selling only 87 robots in the First Quarter. We are talking about medicare millionaires. We received the misty tilde report on medicare, big data from the white house. What the government found was pretty shocking. The government paid almost 4000 , medicaloctors professionals, more than 1 million each in 2012. The highestpaid made more than 10 million. You have one ophthalmologist in florida who made 21 million off of medicare. Medicare is the largest healthcare payer in the u. S. Doctors fees make up 12 of its budget. Overtreatment waste or abuse . These numbers are pretty staggering. Critics argue that it leaves doctors to unfair criticism because it does not show the detail of patients, diagnoses ease, procedures because we are naming doctors by name. That is a good thing to keep in mind. What we have here is i can take data set. It was crashing our computers here. Details every payment that medicare, the biggest purchaser in the u. S. Of health care, paid to over 800,000. Spurs. The 800,000 doctors. So it is a lot of information here. It does not give us total context. There are some outliers, like the ophthalmologist. It is becauseif they see a lot of medicare patients, if they are doing procedures they may have a lot of elderly patients who are using medicare. But it is raising questions. These are questions that we have not been able to raise because this is the first time this data has been publicly available. What is your hunch here . Do you think there is a lot of abuse in the system going on . Absolutely. This is possibly the most significant day in the history of u. S. Health policy Research Effort because we have never had this data before. You have to go back and understand the history of the medicare for graham. Medicare program. The medical association opposed it because they feared that doctors pay would go down. They said we will let you charge whatever you want as long as you support medicare. So they went along with it. Ever since then, the American Medical Association has blocked and sued to prevent this data from coming out. Why are they so reluctant . That a sickly doctors often have a financial incentive to over prescribed and overuse tests and over utilize the system. Some doctors who are the worst abusers are catching the headlines, but 40 of physicians are really driving the massive cost of medicare. The reason why medicare is at the center of the middle goal the medical crisis we have. Some careers should get ruined by this and it is a black mark on the ama that they fought for so long to block this. Yeah, if you dont have anything to hide, why are you try to hide it . You raised an interesting point. A lot of this beta has been kept private from the public and medicare has been able to see the data themselves and should be able to go after doctors themselves and go crack down the abuse but they have not done it. There are people who have said that medicare has not done a good job policing themselves because this program is a political hot potato. Everyone wants medicare to go smoothly because it is a program for seniors and no one wants to upset seniors who have a lot of political clout. Medicare has not been going after the fraud and waste and abuse on its own because they have not wanted to upset doctors who might drop out of medicare. They havent wanted to upset seniors who would get their payments denied. Now the information is out there publicly and researchers and reporters and watchdog groups can look at it and go after it and possibly do some of the policing that tricks say medicare hasnt been doing on its own. That is one of the Big Questions here. The ma e maa the ama fighting it, which they should not have done, hopefully they have learned their lesson. What is it that you have seen in this data that causes you some concern, that makes uses dishes, that makes you think medicare is not really as parents parent and as fair as it should be . Anecdotally, we have known this for a long time. If you look at certain pharmaceutical drugs and biotech drugs, the reasons why they sell billions of dollars in revenues, in is the sent versus event one is lucenta versus avantin. Doctors make more money selling those drugs over the alternative. In my old life as a wall street investor, i used to take into account thinking the revenue potential. We have known this for a long time. The fact that some of the best us and that sunlight is the best disinfectant. Doctors will know that it will be out there in the Public Domain and their reputations will be affected. Some of the most egregious things that you saw looking through this, youve got doctors who are allegedly ordering tests because they get some kind of kickback just for ordering that test. That is the concern out there. Outliers,some clear doctors making 100 times more than other doctors in the same specialty. But there should be a note of caution in that there could be very good reasons why doctors are doing what they are doing. One of the thirdhighest paid doctors on their, a pathologist, he is the guy who does the billing for 27 other doctors. Its my name on the bill but the money is not going to me. At least we have the chance to find abnormalities. All right, we are going to leave it there. Coming up, the always outspoken and always insightful mike mayo is joining me. He is coining a new term. Loss greece gets back in the debt game plus. The cofounders of Investment Firm thurlow wondered called out the behavior of activists and the day described as a group of bullies who not only tolerate a fight but relish it. That may provide amusement to them. It can leave a company distracted and vulnerable. They say one man who has never been silent and is always outspoken, analyst mike mayo, has been a frequent critic of mismanagement of some of the big banks. He is here with me to call out Board Members that he calls lazy boys. Welcome, mike, always good to see you. Are you talking about these corporate boards that go along with management, said by, say anything goes, just to keep the peace . Rubberstamp bank boards, i have seen it for 25 years. Butgement teams come and go these boards dont take enough responsibility for overseeing this management team. I brought up some of these examples before but look at the big bank mergers. Been it six s as has been seven years for he and y malin. Who is responsible . Is accountable . I was at the bny mellon. When on the boards going to step up to the plate . You specifically cover the Financial Sector are so you see a lot of it in the space. Beside the boards, what else can be done . They are saying that institutional shareholders need to have a bigger voice. Why arent analysts calling out more of these problems . Parole and weinberg, thank you very much. The Asset Management industry is 100 trillion. Within that, there is a lot more that the shareholders can do. Asset managers like blackrock have been getting more aggressive. These guys are, like, ok, as long as i need to the s p, there you go where the activists are saying i want to have more influence and make a bigger impression and i will do more to accomplish that. What is the difference between the activist and the shareholder right now . Some of the actions are beneficial to the bank. We saw dan loeb at morgan stanley, which certainly didnt hurt. We saw nelson involved in state street. That helped. But sitting back and waiting for the activists to write in with his white hat and save the day, if you are an investor in citigroup am a you cant do that anymore. We need the top Institutional Investors to take more accountability themselves. This oped is not praising activists at all. They compare this to basically the 1950s and mark party is and and mccarthyism. They say it is reminiscent of joe mccarthy in the 1950s in the same way he hid behind patriotism. At the end of the day, shouldnt the goal be to make money and you want these companies to be profitable . So i dont care if it is an activist and an analyst, if people are out there speaking out, really try to rattle the cages and get something done, isnt that a good thing for shareholders . As long as it creates longterm value. Note sayingut my that these large banks should sell off assets, i have gotten pushed back. Ive gotten beat up. And a halfired one times for speaking up sometimes too much. Mike told me he has been fired for being so outspoken against some of these banks. Specifically, what happened . It is documented in my book. I got fired from credit suisse. Why . Fromalmost got fired Lehman Brothers because they did not want to hear wallt there is a chinese where the Research Community is separate from the banking site. Business hasof the gotten better but the driving behavior has not changed one bit. I will tie this back to my lazy boys phrase. If you look at michael lewiss wall street trilogy, the common stridenstead of behavior, incentives are out of whack. I feel comfortable where i am today. Were you ever told, look, we dont want you saying this about Financial Institutions . So specifically . When i was at Lehman Brothers, i was told point blank why are you saying these comments about the banks . Instead of still drive behavior, look at the ratio of iranians to sell ratings. Rating toio of buy sell rating. The ratings agencies are trying to play catchup. What are they afraid of the sides losing their job because the institution does not like the negative publicity . What else is going on here . Access . Biting the hand that feeds you sometimes. Getting spoonfed information from companies, that may be cut off. Why dont analysts go to annual meetings and ask questions . The concern is the potential backlash. I will be going to annual meetings. The next one is citigroup. They have some tough questions to answer and i will ask them as politely as i can but we deserve answers. The difference to a couple of years ago, investors would send emails, call my boss and say, mike, stop it. We dont like what youre doing. It has been a watershed change the last few years. Investors are emailing me and saying, do more of this, mike. In no uncertain terms. Saying wee banks are agree with you almost all the time. So now i am being encouraged. You are seeing the pushback changing. Earnings coming out next week for many of these big banks. Any sense of what it will look like and some of the questions you will be asking . There are two sides of the same coin. One side is that ranks are stronger than they have been in a long time. Ratio isytwoasset the highest it has been in eight decades. That is a lot of bank capital to absorb. Revenuer side is bank growth is the worst it has been in eight decades. Not a lot of growth but a lot of safety. What will be one of your Big Questions for some of these institutions on the call . I think the real question is future equity growth. Margins have been under pressure for a couple of years. Is that changing . Isnt that partly . A result of the Government Intervention . Isnt that partly the result of Government Intervention . Should they be getting smaller to take on more risk . I dont like looking at it from the regulator standpoint. I like looking at it from an investor standpoint. Shrink, free up capital and return that capital. All right, thank you very much. Calling out lazy boys on the corporate side. Coming up, greece will be making its first one issue is since the euro crisis. Find out how much is being offered next and what kind of yields there might be. Will come back. It is time for todays global outlook. Greece is returning to the bond market. Its firstsents issuance since before the euro crisis. It is expected to open up on thursday. But should greece be selling that to the world . Investors will decide the answer to that one. Julie, what does it look like we will see in terms of yields . Someone whoing to didnt want to be named, we are looking at a payout rate between 5 and 5. 25 . This is happening at the same time as the likes of spain and italy and ireland are setting record low levels of years which means that there is the high demand for their debt. So it makes sense that greece would want to get in. You are seeing a premium because reese still has obstacles to overcome. But greece believes it has to pay a bit of a premium to some of these other countries that in order to get that demand. We are seeing some premium on the 10year. When you compare that to that of italy and spain. At the same time, greece tanks that it is time enough to come out with this that. It is a symbolic gesture if anything else because the bailout funds that it is paying back that it had borrowed, it is paying 2 on those. So this is more than double that. So it doesnt mean to in terms of that. But in terms of the systolic , theymbolic gesture existing sovereign debt from greece has returned 30 this year. If you look at other developed markets, it is above those immature he ever market. So if you are in greek debt, you are probably in good shape. Germany considered the healthiest of the bunch, 1. 57 . Yeah. You are right, you are seeing that premium. It willing to me that be going for about 5. 25 when is five point 77 . It is not exactly apples to apples. I will be right back. The fed just released the minutes of last months policy thatng and admitting things are perhaps overstated a bit. Mike, explain what is going on here. They are sounding like they are backpedaling a little bit. They are not backpedaling because this to face before their statement and Janet Yellens as conference. But they all agreed that they should change their statement language. Four times a year, they put out a new economic or cast and give their forecast for Interest Rates. Dots charge, they were concerned that markets would misread that as they were going to raise rates sooner to get to that level. They knew that would be a problem but they felt at the time that, if they added language to that statement, people would Pay Attention to the statement. They were wrong. Sounds like we can all breathe a big sigh of relief because the fed is not planning on raising rates anytime soon. That is certainly my take. The challenges that the blue dots for Janet Yellens idea, now that she is the chair of the fed, it is, like, never mind. Focus what i said in my press conference in my statement. They had an unscheduled, unpublicized meeting on march 4. I interpreted it so there would not be any surprises. We learnedugget today. What did they look at than if we are not looking at the dots and they are no look no longer looking at the Unemployment Rate. What are we supposed to hang our hat on here . Sayingt, you are they like it is the board collective from star trek the next generation. It isnt. Some people are at the lower end of the range. Others in those minutes said that maybe it was appropriate. Have aals that we different outlook on unemployment but the same reaction function. We are shifting from a focus on the zero rates to what is the trajectory back to the normal rates environment once the fed starts hiking rates. I think this bloomberg story overplays the dot story a little bit. I think it is good that the fed is moving towards telling us about their reaction. Have 19strength, you different participants and 12 voters. It will be important for janet yellen as chair to get a crisp and consistent message on what that function is. To me, spend less time focusing on unemployment and more on inflation. We are running at 1. 2 and we have been undershooting for some time. I think inflation will be key to the fed called in the years Going Forward. At full strength, fomc has five members has 19 members. But at this meeting, there were only 16 members. It is going to change the consensus forecast. A consensus move up in rates may not reflect what the fed is thinking. And the chart will tell you who the dots are so youd know which so you dont know which are the voting members. So you do not know how realistic the median is. They are telling us not to look at the dots. What are we supposed to be interpreting out of the fed . Are we supposed to listen to every word janet yellen says and assume that is where everyone stands . We just heard john explained there are a lot of different viewpoints out there. The key thing is that ben bernanke was communicating a simple message. We are not hiking. Messages a more complex janet has a more complex message, that we may start hiking over the next few months. Start focusing on the inflation numbers. That will be the key. Unemployment is not dead. In the summary of Economic Projections, the expanded version that comes with these minutes, there was discussion about everyone but one member thought it appropriate to raise the fed funds if the Unemployment Rate went below 6. 6 . So there is a soft numerical guidance in the Economic Projections it has those words were picked out for a reason. Until we get to six new to 6 and the economy is not healthy and not growing at a clip that they would like to see it was interesting to see one of the interesting nuggets in the minutes is that there is a real debate about the Unemployment Rate and whether or not there is slack in the economy or not. A number of members f

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