Rate came down so far and has been holding there. It has not gone back up. It is a huge debate and i dont think you look at one jobs report, debut put together a sequence to my and the major theme has to be, are we in escape velocity . At is the big question we will see at 8 30. One number i will be looking at is the increase in average hourly earnings, expected up 1. 9 . It sounds good but it is less than what we have been seeing. A lot of people would rather see people being paid more because it suggests growth and labor demand in the economy. Anything else in the brief . There are no earnings. But we should point out the ecb will be holding a press seven 45. At and the market closes early . 1 00 p. M. The bond market closes at 2 00. A data check. Within ecb meeting this morning, quiet. We drive to 17,000 on the dow. Yields are back up. We have gone from 2. 5 what ever to 2. 63. P come on, courtney, lets go. The vix, 10. 82. 16,998. I am back on watching dollar ruble as well. Lets go to the bloomberg terminal. This is what the pros look at. Adam is talking about wages and benefits. Up to 2007 on wages and benefits, this is the eci index. Off we go back to some form of lower wage growth. The whole debate is, do we get ramification they and then the ramifications. Especially when productivity has been low at the same time. My former professor at princeton he says you have not seen that yet. There is Proof Positive it has flatlined. We will talk about the janet yellen speech today. An important speech by janet yellen, appearing with Christine Lagarde yesterday at the imf. Front pages this morning, there is alix steel with our front page. Janet yellen and Christine Lagarde talking about the economy at the imf. Basicallylagarde saying the Global Economy will not return to the precrisis world. There has been the new normal created. She says there have been various aspects of financial reform that has been changed but a lot remains to be done. And you heard from janet yellen, what you were referring to, saying financial instability should not lead to any kind of rate change here and she flagged pockets of increased risktaking in the Financial System but said it is not the Central Banks mandate to deal with that. Very different from what we have heard from other banks for international sentiments international settlements. Yesterday with madame lagarde, who frankly i think is much more in the b i s bill gross camp. This was her most important speech in recent time. Also, janet yellen making the fed raises rates to combat any bubbles, that might have bigger ramifications overseas than just letting the bubble be. Alan krueger is with those in the 7 00 hour as well, and we can talk with him about this as well. Not agree withs janet yellen on this, it is just that simple. We are talking about the experiment that broke earlier last week. Journal isreet looking at the facebook data science lab, very few boundaries. That was the unit that offered news feeds to facebook users to more positive or negative posts. The unit one slots tom cried . It was a onetime thing. It also learned that this unit locked out users to identify antifraud measures. No one loss permanent access over time, but these sort of data points is what they do. But it is not all terrible. They do not all mess with your emotions. Nontechy boy here. What is the sum of this here . Why are we surprised . All thisare putting stuff out there. The fact that someone is collecting what is there to be observed should not come as a surprise. You put the box. With the terms and conditions. People are not only using facebook less, they are using it dramatically less. I may be wrong. Facebook is taking a step back saying the tech had been poorly communicated, that they are looking to make some kind of improvement. They were caught off guard. Thethird front story of day, president obama criticizing wall streets onusdriven culture. That is an interview to be aired bonus driven culture. That is an interview to be aired today. He says the unfinished piece of business is to address banks that take big risk because the profit and bonus incentive is there for them. He says the problem may acquire that may require additional steps, but we do not know what those steps might be. He says the banks need to change how they work internally to alter incentives for traders. He had a great quote that said in the event of a bad debt, you end up leaving the shop but everybody else is left holding the bag. You might get the money, you might be off, but it is the taxpayers that end up footing it. Different types of banks out there. Those are frontpage stories today. Jobs data, our guest host this hour, michael has been very helpful to us on commodities in the markets. Asset management. He is going long this week with a fourday work week. Matt is with us from Bloomberg News. Right to you. The president is going after bonuses. Always an easy target for a politician. Has the bonus doctor changed in your reporting . That marketplace radio iterview you gave today gave an interview that he gave today. I give an interview to mark up his radio and it is not a big deal. I thought obama was done with wall street. I was surprised when i read a preview of that interview, especially because one of the reasons i am with you is to talk about the story that i wrote with my colleagues about Goldman Sachs. It seems like these are hard times for wall street. You are reporting and Christine Harper is reporting and others at Bloomberg News has the bonus structure changed . Talked to,le i people feel they are being paid a lot less than they used to and it is harder to make the fortunes they did in wall street. Michael, you have been an observer for this for years. Is there a new bonus culture on wall street . Is the president behind the story . No, he is flogging a dead horse, i think. If you look at what happened 15 years ago, they just they started destroying the sell side and it is somewhat depressing to see the president banging on this drum, and i think it shows that he has simply run out of ideas. Bonuses forget that the are things that pay taxes, that pay alternative minimum taxes . People get a bonus, and i believe it is not a net clinging to the household . 1 wall st job creates eight other jobs because you are theng a lot of money and wall street guys spend that money. Trades that are paid bonuses are where we get Interest Rates back down. The idea that wall street is this great evil is at best simplistic. Have you seen any budgeting on this fourth of july weekend on this mainstream versus the great evil . Is there any change in the dialog . There is a lot of angler dash of anger out there, and i think the wage growth is part of it. Fed policy is a move toward addressing the inequality as a concept, which is a remarkable shift. Wall street is an easy target. It is wellpaid. , talkingelson with us about the gossip at Goldman Sachs in a bit. It is an outrageous article to talk to it. With us asoul is well. We will get to his view on commodities as well. Alix steel has our company news. Aig says there will be no need for a second government bailout. The Insurance Company got that got the biggest taxpayer rescue ever could divest units and hauled policy sales in the future crisis. Was required to come up with a plan in case of another crisis. Now it is chrysler having problems with recalls. Regulators want to know why it takes chrysler so long to fixed to fix jeep, linked to dozens of deadly fires. The company says it will not have the necessary parts until next month. The government has awarded another contract to a Security Company accused of fraud. The company, u. S. Investigations services, is also the company that did the bad rep the background check on edward snowden. U. S. Investigations services was never barred from federal contract. That is company news. When we come back, we will talk about the new Goldman Sachs lawsuit. Two former employees are suing the bank. Is this a oneoff, or does its thing to something does he speak to something bigger . We are streaming on your tablet, phone, and bloomberg. Com. A day before the fourth of july, good morning, everyone. Good morning everyone. I have to keep my glasses on because it is jobs day. Up, betty liu will speak to mohamed elerian. Dr. Elerian will join betty liu on Bloomberg Television worldwide later this morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im tom keene. Adam johnson. Scarlet fu demanding the day off. Alix steel came in. Dollars for a good reputation. What matters more when it comes to wall street . Goldman sachs is facing a lawsuit over its boys club employeee, a former complaining about his small 8. 5 million bonus. These headlines are really sexy for media to talk about, of course, but what is the biggest distinction between the headlines we see now and five years ago . When you put things in historical context, it makes things now seem less exciting. Wall street 10 or 20 or 30 years ago was not exactly a good healthy place in some ways. But it was a lot of fun. s to your point and alix point, there was question of behavior. It is not fun if you are a woman and you are feeling victimized by the culture. It is a relatively old lawsuit going on for three or four years. Thetwo women who brought lawsuit want to make it a classaction lawsuit. There are Court Filings where they are asking the judge, we want to make this into a classaction suit . Why would this be a game changer for Goldman Sachs . Toit is a much bigger threat Goldman Sachs than just from one or two people. What i found interesting is that it has filings from women who worked at Goldman Sachs and they give firstperson accounts of what it is like in the bank. They give allegations and Goldman Sachs denies them. , almost describe telling stories, about traders calling women bimbos or a former beauty pageant winner was brought in and the men world mocking her. The men would go to strip clubs and would not ask the women out to socialize with them, and then when they would, they would mock them. Does this have some traction, like some of the work that susan until a has done for Bloomberg News, or is this just people looking for a payday . Pros say about this specific case . David wells obviously says, from Lloyd Blankfein, there is nothing here. What do the pros say about this specific case . Adam said he went to princeton and studied under which i did not know. Areink some people like you more swayed by that and the cultural anecdotes. Max, i want to know what the pros say about the specific case. Clients to a strip club . I dont think Lloyd Blankfein would approve that. I dont think that would get approved at Goldman Sachs. But you are saying within your article that they did. Sayse princeton economist women are paid less as Vice President and associates, and the vice and the numbers are pretty stark. Isseems that the problem more broad, and if you are asking about legal opinions, that may be more trouble. Uphow does that stack against other banks . Is Goldman Sachs really out on a limb here . Goldman sachs certainly always seems to be the bank that comes up in headlines. On the other hand, if you stopped and took a look at all the headlines with wall street banks, this one i am not sure is in the top three. We are seeing one of the biggest banks in europe getting charged for clients doing deals with sudan and iran. It seems like we are in this moment in Global Banking where inse huge organizations their different ways are doing things that are illegal and scary to people. You made the point that there may be the evidence, according to a princeton economist, of pay disparity. That is economic those are hard numbers and they are irrefutable. That is a much different place from anecdotal he said she said not to underplay that but speak to the severity of the pay discrepancy between men and women at goldman. Goldman sachs, one person familiar with their strategy my sense is that Goldman Sachs says do not trust the statistics. However, in the report we have, it lays out clearly that using Statistical Analysis of Goldman SachsVice President and associates from 2003 two 2011, women were paid 21 less than lessand were statistically likely to be promoted even when they had the same types of employees. That is wrong. That i can understand. That to me is crystal clear. That is plain wrong. Equal work, equal pay. Have the same we talent leaving and where do they go . Adam . Coming up in the next hour, it is jobs day. We will have alan krueger from princeton university, the former chairman on the president s council of economic advisers. He can help us sort out the data and make sense of it for all of us. Is the economy doing better or worse . This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene with adam johnson and alix steel. Scarlet fu is off, off, off. Arthur has begun the season as the first hurricane. So far it is only category one, the weakest class of hurricane. The wind is at 74 miles per hour. No mandatory evacuations along the carolina sure as yet. Those are some of the images we see brewing. Nicolas sarkozy says prosecutors are trying to humiliate him. He has been charged with anduence peddling influencing campaign financing. He denies any wrongdoing. , the average price per gallon is now 3. 67. It cost me about 92 bucks to fill up my car last week. That is the most we have seen for any Independence Day since 2008. The fighting in iraq has raised crude oil prices. Futureses up 2, dow down 15. Here is alix steel. Ceo spoke to betty liu about the streaming success during the world cup. Take a listen. Our average Television Rating is up 39 despite the fact that that is up that much digital viewing has been through the roof. This is already the most streamed sporting event of all time. We are now 70 beyond the sochi olympics. We will be more than double the sochi olympics before this is over and that was the previous high water mark. A lot of good stats out there. The Financial Times saying they u. S. Fans make up of their global audience. I think they have done such a good job at that table in brazil. On television. Just fantastic. They have been all over it. One other key distinction, this thing is not a phone, that is a tv. That is the change. And you c. L. Otter post on twitter as well as facebook. And you see a lot of posts on twitter as well as facebook. Someone save me. Save myself brady twitter question of the day for everybody are you feeling less or more confident about the American Economy this fourth of july . Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. It is a representation of the fog in new york city, over what is going to happen in the Third Quarter. Nobody has a clue. Great opinion. We will bring that to you through september 30 at bloomberg surveillance. New york city, july 3. His is bloomberg surveillance at our World Headquarters next to bloomingdales. Tom keene with adam johnson. Alix steel is in for scarlet fu. A data check mario draghi in jobs it is too much information. 1970. Tures dow showing the complacency within the market. Is the stock market ahead of the economy, or does the market simply follow along with observed Economic Data . With the intraday peak yesterday surges98. 70, the market ever higher. Shaoul isl michael an expert at observing the strange linkage between stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and our economies. What sticks out for you as we begin the Third Quarter . You have key equity indexes close to big round numbers. You have the s p at 2000, the nasdaq 100 at 4000, the dow at 17,000, the dax at 10,000, and the u. K. At 7000. Call onay that on your the commodity slowdown. You nailed that. What is the Michael Shaoul message linking them . I think the commodity slowdown is over. Commodityitive on the sector in general, and i think the worries about china are overdone. What are under done are the opportunities for commodity rebound in japan, the u. S. , and europe. With will do this later janet yellen, but it again speaks to the bubble and the nonbillable the nonbillable blown off the nonbubble blown off. Why is the super cycle not over perhaps versus financial flows of anything have been negative. Sentiment has been going negative toward the commodity sector. This looks like a real move. What you do is look from the top down. You find big investment themes and you invest in them. China is rebounding, picking back up, too much negativity. That is one theme. Janet yellen and every other central banker out there supplying capital. What is the third same . The most important theme is how much slack there is in the Global Economy, particularly the u. S. Economy. There is much less capacity than much less capacity there than Central Banks think there are. You will start to see substantial price distortions and substantial supply distortions within the u. S. Economy. Are those distortions Michael Shaoul talk for a bubble . I am more concerned about her lack of control over the financial economy than the physical economy. I think we are headed for the genuine inflationary cycle. The fed is looking at they are accessed about issues such as wages, which they do not actually measure. Here is the old regime, the new regime. You say they have this wrong. They are looking here, but they oug