A different story in china. Slowing growth has prompted the , at 81 billion dollars, to the bank. Another sign of stimulus. They are calling it qe with chinese characteristics. One economist called it that. Tv with chinese characteristics. It is not fullblown qe, but it is chinese style qe. I dont even know what to make of that. Bpi, 8 30, u. S. , that is our latest read on inflation. This creeping in at 1. 9 . The feds index, pce core, at 1. 5 . It is moving closer to 2 . The fed coming out at 2 00 with its latest statement. This is the twoday meeting that happens today. And we get janet yellen at 2 30. It is the language we are looking for. Significant underutilization, considerable time. Earnings today, general mills, r, and fedex, which reports at 7 30. President obama is traveling to tampa to meet with the u. S. Central command, and janet yellen if you are a markets guy or gal, that is what you are focused on. On the heels of that, lets show you what is going on in the markets now ahead of the fed announcement. Futures little changed. No one wants to get ahead of the fed announcement this afternoon. The 10year yield at 2. 75 . At 2. 5 . It is still below 2. 6 . Crude oil, 94. 81. It got a big lift yesterday on signs opec may cut production. This is probably the least talked about story of all the big picture stuff, the fact that we are still consuming more oil by 1. 6 than we did last year, but the rate of close the rate of close the rate of growth is slowing. As we become less dependent on the mideast. But given all the political risks, the rise of the islamic state, it is incredible to see how Resilient Oil prices have been. They are ignoring geopolitical issues. Forhose are our data checks this morning. Lets get to the front page where we scan the newspapers and check the websites. We have the first frontpage story for you. The white house top military adviser raising the possibility that u. S. Ground troops might be deployed to fight the islamic states, going counter to what the president has said. General Martin Dempsey testified before the Senate Armed Services committee and said he is confident that the u. S. Select coalition will win. Back to theould go president to ask for those Ground Troops. We have had a lot of guests on the show. I was speaking to the former allied Supreme Commander of nato, who is calling for 10,000 troops on the ground. A lot of people are saying it will be inevitable that we have to get american soldiers on the ground. The question is why we are not seeing more regional troops on the ground area on the ground. We dont even know that who is involved. In the coalition. The u. S. Air force accounts for 70 of the activity there. The u. S. Navy, about another 25 . It is still the u. S. Isthe white house says it the responsibility of military advisers to plan for all possibilities, so they are acting with an abundance of caution. Remember when george bush flew onto the carrier and announced, Mission Accomplished . Later,n a few years president obama said it effectively, i ended the war in iraq over and over. For all intents and purposes, john kerry is now saying that you can call it against that you can call it a war against isis. 3000ent offensive soldiers are going to west africa to fight ebola. Thepresident went to centers for Disease Control in atlanta to be briefed on the epidemic. What are the numbers now . , but as you point out, there may be that same number also infected. 3000 Ground Troops there are 1000 Ground Troops in iraq, and we are sending 3000 Ground Troops to west africa to deal with ebola. I dont mean to diminish what is happening in west africa. But it is very telling right now. Where the priorities are. This is the largest response we have ever had to an international epidemic. And it could get to 20,000 if the World Health Organization predictions come to fruition. It is spiraling out of control. The World Health Organization is hauling this a pandemic, and emergency for months. We are finally seeing reaction. Met in the white house with the former dr. Who had ebola. Who was flown to atlanta, who recovered. The president moving on that front. Last frontpage story boeing and elon musk splitting for the space capsule. The spacetract taxi. This is a huge win for elon musk and spacex. Emily chang spoke with one of the elon musks former colleagues, so take a listen. You compare compelling startups to colts. Startups be like colts . They should not be in the sense of believing something that is wrong, but it is always a good sign if there is an intense understanding of something that is true that few other people do. My paypal fanned my paypal friend elon musk is motivated by the idea that they will build rockets that will get human beings to mars and the next 15 years or so. Up until now, nasa has relied on the russian soyuz rockets. This will mean we do not have to take a Russian Rocket to get to the u. S. Space shuttle to get to the u. S. Space station. Long in programs were place before crimea and sanctions. It is cool that nasa is giving these contracts to Prior Companies to private companies. It is a huge victory for elon musk and a big step forward to getting a man on mars. Those are our frontpage stories this morning. I want to point out, you can see more of emily changs interview with the president of Clarion Capital on studio 1. 0. Ont would be 1 00 eastern bloomberg west. It is fed day today. Market, payhe attention. We will get the announcement at 2 00, and then get a press conference from janet yellen herself. Our guest host for the hour, ward mccarthy. You have been a very busy guy. You are parsing language. You are getting into prepositions. It is going to get into language today. The fed is in a slow, gradual process, moving toward the day when they will finally initiate the first rate liftoff. That is what all of the Financial Markets are focused on. Today they want to see how far do they go with this. I think they will take small but necessary steps by removing what i would call timedependent line which, like insuperable period like considerable period, that will still leave it in big thatas to when they will still leave it ambiguous as to when they start raising rates. But the battleship has turned . A long time ago, and it is considering to it is continuing to go in the same direction. And will get to the point in 2015 when we will start raising rates. They will have a stable Balance Sheet in the Fourth Quarter, so the next step is started getting rates back to normal. But they are leaving himself enough but they are leaving themselves enough wiggle room. 25pointoff suggests a rate liftoff suggests 25 basis points. What it ambiguous is when they are going to do it. There has been a lot of discussion between a number of people at the fed about maybe we should do it in the Fourth Quarter or toward the middle of the year, and the most important people, the most important one being janet yellen, have refused to put a timeframe on it. The markets will not react well, but i think that then that will be when janet yellen steps in at the press conference in puts everything into a context that will be calling. Into a context that will be calming. You cover retail and consumers. Is the consumer ready for liftoff . Is the American Consumer ready for a rate hike . I think the American Consumer is still reticent to notice that while there has been some good Economic Data in the last few years in general, they are still sluggish. They still have a hangover. They still remember. It is still too soon. Time for our twitter question of the day. Who communicates better . Bernanke . En or ben bsurveillance. The hour, wardor. Ccarthy and morty singer we start with sony, a big loss on the horizon. Expecting a much bigger loss in the current fiscal year, more than 2 billion. The Electronics Maker previously forecast a loss of 467 million. Breakdown ofis a its smart phone business. Credit suisse under scrutiny by the federal reserve. U. S. Regulators are concerned with what he considers risky loans. They received a letter from the fed demanding the bank address problems with this underwriting and sale of high Interest Rates alone. An activist purchase an activist pushes for a dupont breakup. That is according to the wall street journal. These days, that is plenty to get the board to listen. That is your company news. Coming up on surveillance, just under one day before we get the decision on the future of scotlands, the latest on what you need to know before tomorrows vote. This is bloomberg surveillance. Coming up later this morning, robert pittman, the ceo of Clear Channel communications, will be joining erik schatzkers Market Makers team. Coming up at 11 00 a. M. Eastern time. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im scarlet fu, with Olivia Sterns and adam johnson. Tom keene is on assignment. We are less than one day away away for more on scotland, as they ready what annad be a historic vote, joins us live. Is too closew it to call. Any sense of whether the mood is shifting as we come down to the wire . Art go it really it it really is coming down to the wire. We have three pulls out overnight that all gave the know cap a lead. A lead by just four points. No cap, 48 to the yes camp. Account all of this camp isnformation, no being put ahead by only a few percentage points. Camp and the yes camp hitting the streets. Trying to persuade the undecided voters to come around to their way of thinking. Has the number of undecided voters decreased in the runup to the actual vote . Previously they were tilting more toward the yes camp. After they show that the yes camp was getting momentum, they started switching over. What are you hearing . Every different polling ofpany has a different level undecided voters. Some of the pullers have suggested that the undecideds are only at 5 . Others suggest 25 . There are also different types of undecideds. Some are more convincingly undecided than others. There is a great deal of difficulty in pulling around Something Like this because there is not much precedent to look at. Thing called a spiral of silence, which means when one option becomes uncool to speak out in favor of. That is something they are having trouble correcting for, so the statistics become very complicated. We have so many guests coming in on the show to talk about what a disaster it would be for london and for scotland if they were to divorce because the economies are so tied at the hip. But with rbs and so many big banks threatening to leave scotland, massive questions about what scotland would do with its own currency, is he your sense that this will be a decision determined by economic logic, or is this one of nationalist fervor . An interesting question, one that is incredibly difficult. We talked to scotlands first billionaire a little bit earlier during our european programming. He made his billions selling sports and leisure wear. He is now a philanthropists. He is now a philanthropists. Are working he says some are voting with their hearts, others with their heads. You find a bit of everything in scotland. We are in scotland. We bring you a special treat. I hope you like loud music with your Morning Coffee because this is john. The scotland parade. I hope you like this kind of thing with your breakfast cereal. ] agpipes play fantastic. Well done on the bagpipes. Just to clarify, Bloomberg Television is not coming out in favor. I am going to be making the haggis for breakfast. Guests, ward mccarthy, who we have just learned can actually play the bagpipes. I can play the bagpipes. Can you play scotland the brave of course. Do you think scotland will leave . It is a shame to have the thet, 50 50, when you have patriotism and useful zoo birds as well as social media, i am worried it could tip the balance. What is the fallout . People would wake up the next morning wondering and realizing thethinking for some of salient points, what happened to the economy. When we come back, we will be joined by a man who was on the become janet yellen. Instead, he became himself. Richard clareida. This is bloomberg surveillance. Time for our morning must three. Times, take york a breath, isis and the arab world. Friedmanticle, george includes the best strategy rests in doing as little as possible and force a regional powers into the fray, then in maintaining the balance of power in the coalition. I am not sure, but it is worth debating. Tom friedman is saying we are not dismissing isis, but that what we are doing is acting out of fear and gliding over essential questions. Overt in their involvement in combating isis. Why is turkey not doing more publicly to combat isis . Why is saudi arabia not doing more . Why arent you seeing any arab or persian countries putting boots on the ground . State, theislamic guardians of islam, why arent they sending troops in . Saudi arabia is playing a role, but no one is sure what it is. Remember, these are surprisingly wellorganized, because this is the old guard that goes back to saddam hussein. That is part of the issue. Able do not want to go up against it. Our twitter question of the day who communicates better, janet yellen or ben bernanke . Please tweet us bsurveillance. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im scarlet fu with Olivia Sterns and adam johnson. Tom keene is on assignment. Hundreds of californians are forced from their homes by a fastmoving wildfire that has square miles. At least 1600 houses are threatened. Some 2400 firefighters are at the scene, but they say they are losing ground. Forwill enlist a small army the holidays, planning to hire 95,000 workers to deal with the surge in deliveries. Many gifts arrived after christmas last year because ups was not ready for the boom in ne shopping, which the cofounder of paypal has advice for tech giants. Peter thiel spoke with emily chang and says hewlettpackard, acting and yahoo are against innovation. I would argue that hp and yahoo are not even really Technology Companies at all. They were Technology Companies withe 1970s and 1980s hp, and in the 1990s with yahoo . Today they are fundamentally invested against technology, against innovation. Be fixed . Oo and hp there are all kinds of things we can do to streamline them. It is probably a mistake for them to radically reinvent themselves. You mention Marissa Mayer. What do you think her chances are of turning it around . By far theshe is best ceo yahoo has had in a decade. She should not be evaluated on whether she comes in and does something new. That is setting her up for failure. If you can improve those incrementally and make them work, that is fantastic. I would be curious to know whether he is short hp and yahoo . You can see emily changs interview with the president of at 1 00 eastern on bloomberg west. That is a call to arms in effect of those two companies. He is basically young thing he is basically lumping hp and yahoo . Is saying Marissa Mayer does not need to reinvent the wheel, she just needs to improve the existing business. Where our market tradings . Speaking of investors, we have the fed announcement at 2 00 p. M. When janet yellen hosts a News Conference. Not much of a new not much of a move futures. The 10year coming down. Drifting from 2. 6 at the end of last week, now down to 2. 57 . Nymex crude consolidating after 80ig move up yesterday, 94 six cents. Everything we talk about is fed, said, said. Our guest host, ward mccarthy, describes what he thinks about the timing of potential rate hikes. Withlation unemployment at 6. 2 , those are moving closer to the fed targets. Why would change be so ambiguous and distant . Says janet yellen wants you to look behind wants you to look behind the headline numbers. Longterm unemployment is still high. People are employed for a long time. We also have a number of people working parttime that would rather work fulltime. Also, average Hourly Earnings are creeping a little bit higher. They are still at the low end of a longterm range, and that is a reflection of the price of labor. She wants to make sure that the economy is really robust to four she starts raising rates, and that is why she wants to be ambiguous and make no predetermined judgments at this point because it is not clear when the appropriate time will be. What do you think she really needs to see on the dashboard before she lifts her foot off the brake . She needs to see Hourly Earnings growing a lot faster. She wants to see continued improvement in the dashboard figures for the labor market. When push comes to shove, inflation will finally push the fed over the edge and get them to raise rates because the fed has not met its inflation target for about 2. 5 years now. They cannot really say that a mandate atis this point. With all that, what is priced into bonds versus what is priced into equities . Of markets are expecting something similar, and that is that the fed will start to raise rates. Next year. Middle of and then do it at a slow pace. Isnkly, i dont think that what is going to happen. I think the fed will start raising rates later rather than sooner. Some people are thinking it will happen in the first quarter. When they finally do get around notaising rates, they will raise rates rapidly. You are saying it will be on the back half of 2015 . I amthink the reason different is primarily because of my interpretation of what janet yellen will look for before she is willing to raise rates. And also when i think it is likely we will see inflation reached the 2 target. I think that is probably one year away. I just want to link this. 101 professor is there still enough slack in the labor economy that you do not have the wage price spiral yet . There is still enough slack in t