Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20141006 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance October 6, 2014

We are very international. I want to start with germany. Manufacturing fell to 5. 7 . What a contrast between our unemployment going down to 5. 9 and their manufacturing falling the most since 2009. China, india, turkey, egypt, all closed for various holidays. Out thatt to point samsung reports tomorrow. Ahead of that report, samsung does it is building a new Million Dollars factory. But it is a semidoctor it is a semiconductor like factory, right . Trying to go up against apple. President obama has three Business Today session before, credit regulation, is conceived roundtable just 29 days till midterms. Session court his at a news fashion for the socket, samesex marriage at this point, anderson three different habits, and anderson to three different doctors. How they have only recently for an research, is from 1971 from dr. Okeefe, on how do we know where we are. Google maps, gps. Google maps within our bodies, and dr. Okeefe led the twoon this, and that the norwegians, a husband and wife, followed up in 2005. The human body is absolutely amazing. It is all chemicals and it somehow becomes emotions or whatever. It blows my mind. A sound off from adam johnson. I will not be winning a nobel prize in medicine. Bloomberg politics debuts tonight with all with all due respect with all due respect. Mitt romney will be the guest. That will be exciting stuff. There we go. Lets do a data check. One of our themes today, the 10year yield, two point 24 . 2. 24 . 2. 44 . Huge markets on friday. Gold is the story. An 11. 90 seven print. Pagewill set up the front nicely. The 1997 crisis. Lulathe lulu real real. There it is. Lets go to our front page this monday morning. Olivia sterns has it. Our top story. Hp planning to split into two separate companies, one business, personal computers and printers. The other will be corporate hardware and services. Hp planning to announce the move today, but it will take place next year. It will be a taxfree distribution of shares. Shifting away from traditional computing to molding to mobile devices. And any number of transaction as well. What is the chevron deal . Chevronstelling selling a 30 stake in shale. Can i point out on hewlettpackard, earnings have been shrinking for the past thee years, and this year forecast grows a mere 4 . They have to do something. And enterprise, they made up profit of they made a profit. Enterprise made a billion dollars more in profit. And ebay, we have looked at the 10year track record. It was miserable for ebay. Hewlett is better. With the whitman rally, we have seen 8. 2 over the past 10 years. That is not acceptable. We will have lots more with a harvard professor later this hour who is joining us. Our second front page story. This is the reason i thought you got out of bed. Gold plunging to its lowest level this year. It fell to as low as 1183 an ounce. Investors are shunning gold. You would think it would bring some buyers back in, but it comes amid signs that the u. S. Economy is strengthening. All you need to do is look at the chart of silver, a similar chart of gold. It broke 19 as gold has broken 1200. Old is now 1688 come keene said this morning, given the routing and commodities, there must be something abiding. You have mentioned this. The president ial election in brazil. The probusiness candidate, finishes in the primary. Runoff against rousseff. Marina silva, who looked like , pulling into a lead. We almost have a trifecta of international issues. Hong kong is calm her than it was. And headlines out of ukraine, moments ago on the bloomberg. The situation is calm, but bring us back over here. This is a big deal. The russian ruble, a few hours to 40. Nt you go back to the beginning september, now your blog now your dollar almost buys 40 rubles. That is in one month. A set of issues in international relations. Dollar strength being the one thread that weaves its way through all of that. It will make for interesting world bank and imf meetings. Very good. Introduce the client that is in hong kong. It looks like a return to normalcy after last weeks massive occupy central protests. I want to bring in our reporter live from admiralty, hong kong. Thank you so much for joining us, john. Is it back to business as usual in hong kong today . It really is, olivia. You have got, first of all i think we lost john. An unfortunate situation. We seem to have lost the linkage there. But the take away is that it is not as bad as it was. It is not as bad as it was. The industry is pretty empty. Last year there were last week there were tens of thousands of people out on the street. Jimmy metal joins us, as he has many times here. Zel joins us. There is a lot of pressure, and china has been nervous. Xi jinping and his group have been nervous. Now the students are pulling back. The students were never going to but inthe short term, the mediumterm issue, there is a whole generation of people in hong kong and maybe across china and maybe across china in the world who have woken up, and these students, china has said they have been backed by foreigners. This veryeally indigenous idea, and now the power of this idea of democracy is there, and they will not be able to pull back. Things are opening up. What is critical here is a generational shift. You and i studied jonathan spence, orville schell. Henry kissinger is one of them. Those days are over. This is a new generation. How new is it . It is no, meaningful, and very indigenous, which is what it is new, meaningful come in very indigenous, which is what frightens beijing. Moreears ago he became wellknown people in hong kong fought back, and the students got their first taste of what it means to be able to have control of your future. There is a set of rules that apply in china, and those rules do not right now fully apply in hong kong. What the protests are about is saying for the students and others who are with them that we are going to determine our own future and pick who our own leaders are. They have lost this round, you cannot put this idea of democracy back. Cannot put this idea of democracy back in the bottle. Government is opening, stores are opening. Lets fold this into the markets. I would characterize the strength of the u. S. Dollar, and that has meant that commodities go down. , juliano ask you manual, how strong is this link between the following doll the rising dollar, falling commodities, and how that translates into u. S. Corporate earnings. It is quite strong. I think you framed the argument very well this morning. It is all about, does the strong dollar actually me that we have problems globally that are going to feed into the u. S. , as has been the case in the past, or can this be a coupling that we have seen in the last couple of years or so, will they continue . What is the history of that decoupling . What we are observing with the great jobs report, all in all, is decoupling successful . It remains to be same. If you look at the equity markets over the last several months, the backandforth, the investors are still trying to there is success. But if you look back to the 1990s, it has been successful in the past. We have every reason to believe that it will be, what we would also like to see europe, for one, get back on a growth track. Emaulian emmanuel julian with us jamie metzl for the hour. We will discuss with a professor from Harvard Business school who will set us all straight on this issue. You are watching bloomberg , with tom keene, Olivia Sterns, and yours truly. It is our twitter question of the day there in what issue will be the game changer for the midterms. Backandforth, lots of pulling going on, and some interesting races among those six or seven key senate races. It is the midterm. You can find out if it will be a game changer tonight. With all due respect, 5 00 p. M. Their guest, the former governor of the commonwealth of massachusetts, mitt romney. I believe he was a president ial candidate long ago and far away. Mitt romney, with all due respect tonight. There it is. Cap onll due respect to hewlettpackard, what do we have . The headline that nobody saw coming. Ewlettpackard plans to split still, according to a person with knowledge of the matter, it is exactly what bill george has saying hpg each he should be doing for years. Phonens us live on the from boston. Good morning, professor. Thank you for joining us on surveillance. What did you see that meg whitman did not . These are two separate businesses, basically a hardware business, lowcost, where they have been struggling to can meet to compete. They have never been a lowcost company. They have tried to run it for cash and see if they can regain. On the other end, i think meg whitmans focus has always been on building enterprise systems and the services business. Both of them are about 55 billion, both have been declining in revenues, and this gives an opportunity for her to focus on the business where she is strongest, software and services businesses. I applaud her for doing this. I have to say that two years ago when i recommended this, the company was down on the bottom and she has restored it a lot, and out of taken out for you. But importantly, distort the confidence to the market. Have thought this through to and after getting where they are, twostock has tripled last years. Companies can regard is something that we should require caps on this is something that we should mention that meg whitmans predecessor should have been done. What changed . A purchasing patterns are very different. The main purchasing is going back and forth between the hardware side, hp, and the systems side. Withcan be resolved longterm purchase agreements between the two companies, so i do not think that is a big problem. What has changed is the confidence, that they are now back on their feet. They were on the bottom before. Today they are back up around 66 billion. The early indications are that it will probably go up around 6 this morning. This is what i think the market has wanted. So she is more confident. Stabilization has been critical, to give them credibility in the marketplace. I wonder if you could sort of help shine a light m a volume is up to the highest we have seen ever, and yet you have two bringing companies together, and yet we have two year two deals in two weeks. What do you make of that iron he . Know, ebay was under pressure earlier this year. I was surprised about the ebay situation. I am not sure why they are doing this, and i am not sure how strong the two remaining companies are to compete with ,eople like amazon and google and certainly alibaba. Somewhatd that perplexing that they made that were not undery immediate pressure. Carl icahn has pretty much gone away. I applaud the rethinking. I think the idea of the portfolio makes sense. At 55 billion each, that is plenty big enough to have a strong company. The old company as it existed is too big to manage. Bill, meg whitman is going to stay on and become the ceo, and she will also controversially stay chair of the printer and pc business. Can she lead effectively in both roles . I was surprised at that. Show that theg to two companies are still one. I hope that will not last long. I dont agree with that. They should have a completely different board, board governance. I was on the board wants of a 3m spinoff. It only works because you have an independent board on the hardware company. There is no need to have overlapping boards. They should find a strong outside chair for the hardware company. We will have to leave it there. Bill george, professor of management practice at harvard university. Coming up, Jeffrey Rosenberg is going to help us figure out what to do with all the money we want to put in bonds but actually do not really as they fed plans to end its zero Interest Rate policy. We will be right back. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Im tom keene. Olivia sterns is in for scarlet fu today. Adam johnson is with us as well. This is from al hunt of bloomberg and Bloomberg View on georgia. The math is simple. Needs close to 30 of the white vote. Obama got 23 in 2012. She needs a turnout of lack voters only slightly smaller than the 30 represented in the 2012 president ial election. , a kansasl is with us city royals guy. Pretty exciting. I am a little bit younger than adam. That does not make me that young. I was up late last night. The last time the royals were in the playoffs was when i was a jr. In high school. When ially amazing was a junior in high school. Getting out of a wild card game, it looked like everything was over. Theissouri, tell me about oddity of a kansas race with no democratic candidate. Fromgrew up one block kansas, and it is unbelievable what happened because in the senate race, there was a democrat and an independent running against the longtime kansas senator. It is absolutely fair ball because the goal was to win control. Now greg norman, the independent , up by 10. Im confused. Watch all due respect tonight. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance from new york city. Tom keene with adam johnson. Olivia sterns is in for scarlet fu. We are looking at china and a quieter hong kong. Let us go to john dawson. He is in hong kong. We have a bit of a delay. A major change here. What would you expect to hear from the government as you go into Tuesday Morning . Interesting tom interesting, tom. Government workers are back to work. Protests. F it is back to work for the workers, back to school for the students. The students have not left the area. Friday the students insisted that the leader resign. A bit of a stalemate going on. I will tell you one thing. A very peaceful protest. Overall, the complaints against police 275. That is pretty good when you consider a week or more of protests. Retailers are having a golden week right now. They are getting a little more vocal behind me right there. Shops were closed, and for rent,ers paying a large that has a big impact. John dawson, thank you. Wide series of headlines, including, olivia, the chairman and ceo announcements for these two new companies. There is some criticism over the weekend of that. Meg whitman to be president and chief executive officer of hewlettpackard enterprise, and i believe she is which is a corporate entity. She will serve on the board of hp enterprise. Dion weissler will be the president of hp incorporated. Which you and i both have on our iphones. You have a consumer business and a corporate business. Hewlettpackard the split those two up and trade in a taxfree spinoff of effectively two new companies. Julian emanuel is with us. This goes to and a day. It is a new kind of m a day. It is a new kind of m a. Impetus the strategic coming from to make these decisions . Is definitely come up from the shareholders. Where it is really coming from the fact that these companies have thrown off so much cash, that basically here is the man howeverk that cash accomplished. Is carl icahn and apple have lacksuggested is about a of phenomenal animal spirit, which is not a bank, making it easier to be one company. One company that is in a state of structural decline. The headline coming across, they have a lot of cash, probably well worth it. We forget that j. P. Morgan that j. P. Morgan has 162,000 employees. Hewlettpackard has doubled that. This dreaded word i hate so much, synergies comes in. We are going to be synergistic. And hopefully they were downsizing does not come in too much. That is the reality of some of these transformations, and part of the world we live in now. The key is unlocking it. As you said, in a world where topline growth is difficult to come by, we have to find different avenues. Is this effectively be you havef the markets, to actually rethink cash flows and try to generate value on your own. You have got to be synergistic. I just love saying it. Olivia, do you say synergistic, or do your parents beat it out of you . I just say disruptor. Whether it is computers that look like this or iron ore that looks like this or gold that looks like this, on and on we go how do you explain the difference in the rate of changes we are seeing in commodities . The strong it is dollar story. Perhaps people have not been focused as much in recent years on the correlation of a strong dollar to commodity prices. Certainly the management that survived commodity downturns in the 1990s who are here today understand that very well. Is there a possibility that as the dollar rallies in all these u. S. Corporations have profits trapped abroad, it is a double whammy to bring it back here so they actually start buying Companies Overseas . That is one of the reasons we have been so positive on m a this year, and despite the crackdown on tax inversions, we think it is going to be m a of a different stripe. But you have to put that cash to work. It is m a in search of topline growth. Lets bring in jamie metzl to the conversation. Kansas city royals fan. Our commodities going down because of china, or is china coming down because of commodities . Definitely commodities are going down because of china. We were talking about this in the green room before we came on. Is it actually green . It is actually green. We were talking about this. China keeps saying the growth didet at 7. 5 , while, we 7. 5 with these madeup numbers. When you look at commodity prices, growth is a lot slower. That is having ripple effects all the way down through the economy. And the likes of rio, hp that is the real story, and it brings us back to the hong kong story. The china entire growth model is at stake. They have had this first phase of Economic Growth, putting a lot of resources into lowend manufacturing, but they are having a tough time. To get there, they will need the kinds of reform that these patriotic hong kong students are calling for. They are having a tough time meshing economic and political reform. But any Technical Analyst would say that is a path to 900. Lot of a proxy for a other commodities. Where is that super cycle, or in jamies china, or is it over . It is definitely a question that it is over. It is not entirely clear, but for us we think at some point ,hen the dollar takes a pause that gold will will this be front and center at the imf meeting this week . It has got to be. 188 members absolutely. You will see what you typically see in commodities cycles. You will see mine closures. Jamie metzl, we have mao zedong, we go on to is this a sea change for china . Xi jinping . G economic problems in china that im injured, they are betting everything on economic reform. Professional between the constitutionalists, the students in hong kong, everything is secondary to economic reform. They are trying to do economic reform top down. Without political reform. Without the bottomup pressures that you can see balancing interest. They are saying we want more rights, and the communist party is saying forget that, you have to trust us. That gold chart is something. Thank you for telling me to buy it. Look at silver. Come on, nobody looks at silver. I just had a Joe Granville flashback. Going to keep the conversation going. Global m a surging this year. Will it continue to the end of the year, or will tax inversions r

© 2025 Vimarsana