Open higher. Oil prices rebounding from the lowest close levels from more than five and a half years. West texas trading under 55 a barrel. Crude is up as well. Saudi arabias oil minister said it would be impossible for opec to curve. An olive branch. He is floating the idea of scaling back sanctions on ukraine. The consider that its gesture that russia is making that what we are waiting for. There is no reason to enact any new sanctions. They will allow us to start deescalating the situation. But british Prime MinisterDavid Cameron says russia has to change its behavior in ukraine before theres any talk of backing off the sanctions. Twitter has started to sell advertising in russia. Its trying to boost ref phew outside the u. S. Among the first customers, a wire mls operator. More than a half million mustangs and g. T. Calls are being recalled. Airbags are t ka lamed. Super saturday. The last day of christmas is expected to beat black friday and sales for the first time ever. Shoppers may spend 10 gazelle on tomorrow. Its called panic friday which is much more honest. Yeah. I cant wait for start your shopping wednesday. Ill be there as well. Thats the day that you go. You can always find a parking spot. Nobody is as lazy as you were. Futures up five, continuing the rally weve seen the last few days. 10year yield somewhat to normalcy. Euro weaker. Nymex. Is that a bid . Weve reached stability. I would say no. We are just sort of there. 55 is where we saw. One opinion. 16. 81. Inproved vix lower. Twoyear bid goes lower. Theres the russian equity market which is just a number to most of us watching. Lets watch the chart. Bring it to the terminal. White line is the equity market from 2012 in russia in rubles. Its great. Not so bad. Here it is converted into u. S. Dollars. And heres that currency devaluation or depreciation. One indicator of what we go beyond oil, beyond the ruble. No, the question is how many Foreign Investors are still in a russian stock market . Probably not. Yeah, thats the problem for Foreign Companies and this is the logic the government has used to talk about its own deficits. As long as its still valued in rubles, its still fine. Putin looking at the white line on the screen. That means crisis over or so it seems. Yen weakness. A stronger russian ruble. And there is that market that we just looked at. And its down 44 since the fourth of july. Down 33 since thanksgiving. The crisis of oil in ukraine has given out to all out financial crisis. Jeveden this has seen this efore. Can the russian banks make it to monday morning . Yeah, but obviously the russian Banking System is under enormous pressure because we dont even know how much they will have to raise Interest Rates. Theyve already been raised considerably. The economys going to be very weak next year. Theres probably a lot more bad news to come in the banks. Matt oneal in the Washington Post wrote a terrific summary yesterday and he had one key idea. Theyve got x billion in foreign reserves but they can only use so much of that. You cant use all your reserves, can you . Well, we think thats a little bit overdone. We think theyve got more usable reserves than a lot of people think out there. We think theyve got 300 billion theyve got to use on reserves the official number to the end of november, theyve used system of that up in december. Some of that residual is unusable. Its in what they call a National Welfare fund. But we think theyve got 300 billion if they need to spend it and that makes it a less dangerous situation than its been in other countries in the past. Which historical parallel is most apt . Its 1988. No, its 2002 in bri zal. Which historical parallel are you looking for . We probably caused this because we talked about historical power line. I think its 1994 in mexico because the russian ruble has fallen more in this year than the mexico peso did. You had a fixed peg that blew up. Is that decline in the mexican peso led to a very, ver deep recession in 1995 . Thats what were going to have in russia in 2015. Even as Vladimir Putin admitted, hes not as diversified as it should be. You use the technical word to combine in with your fundamental economics of finance which is cathartic. Have you seen car that is rightic moves in any of these things that signal bottom . Yeah. This is a good buying opportunity. The point that weve made is youve seen a very formula selloff in currency across the year since oil prices began to fall. Youve seen very little in the way of Monetary Policy responses from any country that wasnt going to raise rates anyway. And oil prices, eventually at this level, are stimulus for the Global Economy so we feel if the thing is containable here and of course as the financial linkages and the potential you know, credit squeezes is so hard to get at. Within the market behavior and the benefit of low oil prices suggest that maybe the worst is coming to an end. But still are still discussing about the possibility of capital control. And i want to bring up the mac monitor once again. Tom, did you just change it . Yeah. Keep talking. We were showing you how ruble terms are doing just fine. And the dollar terms, its a disaster. What would be a significant exodus of foreign dollars . Is there a lot of money there . Because they could impose limits on foreign investor outflows. We do not expect capital controls. We just think its going to be very difficult to do that. They will be really hard to take off. Isnt high Interest Rate a capital control . Russia is 20 . Which is what they try to keep money in there. Theres two element offense the capital capitol story. One is foreign money thats in there. You would trap it in there with certain amounts of capital controls as happened in malaysia in 1988. The other point is to stop locals converting rubles into dollars. That is something that we dont think thats going to happen but that is something thats going to be trigger point. Theres going to be a lot of speculation. Heres 30 days of oil and i challenge anybody to tell me that oils climbed a bill. I mean, were down here. And heres the worst. And were sort of at the worst again. Im going to explain to everybody why tom keene is really happy right now. Sometimes he gets to talk about the movements and then they get brutal and finally today, we get the cathartic. I dont know. Were just sort of there. I mean, scarlett jeff, is oil on a bid . We think its probably ottoming out here. I hear the same language. I understand that. Take you back to late november. Clearly, if oil is going go to 40 and the ruble is going to 100, we havent seen the end of this crisis by any means. Were not expecting that to happen. The contours of the Global Economy do not tell you oil prices should be at 60. Part of it is the supply. And look at how what oil has done since the opec meeting since thanksgiving day. Didnt seem like every day, theres some opec head of oil says were going to keep on and see what happens. Saudi arabia. A lot of oil in the world becomes uneconomic to dig out of the ground. Were all im going to be reading on cuba this morning. And nick byrnes will be with us on the 7 00 hour. Do we have a job . This is cool. This is great. Thank producers within this, jeff, are you into the week going whos not going to get to monday morning . Does venezuela get to monday morning . I think so. I think thats really, really overdoing it. Ok. Fine. Clearly, venezuela, before we went on the air, if venezuela cant make. At 115, its going to be a lot harder at 60. Theyre facing a growing financial crisis the risk of default is not zero by any means. And therefore, it depends on where oil prices level at. All right. Coming up, the ruble falls. Were going to look at who turns out to be naked. Surprisingly nike. Wearing less than what you might it might have been. Nike has a problem. Were going to talk about it after the break. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. To canada. John chen in the 10 a. M. Hour. Scarlet fu will have all of the earnings here. Chen on the future of the blackberry. Good morning. Its bloomberg surveillance. Scarlet fu and Brendan Greeley with me. Brendan looks at the shoe business. Nike and adidas. They sell the same things. Numbers one and two in their market for sports apparel. I spent all summer looking at how they market. I missed the one thing that is making a huge difference in performance. And that is their exposure to International Markets in particular, exposure to russia. So lets take a look at where theyre actually selling. Karen, can you pull that up . A tale of two sneaker makers . Nike luckily is actually earning most of its money in dollars which is really good news. So its protectsed . Its relatively protected its got 4 exposure to central and eastern europe. Adidas has got 80 of its revenues outside of its home market. Adidas has a bigger problem right now. When i visited adidas this summer, they had this huge display of the marketing push they were pushing for towards teenagers in russia. And theyre selling the same thing, roughly, theyre constantly following each other in product design, trading back and forth. Adidas unluckily just happens to be based in germany. Its got different exposures than nike. But they had planned to open up 100 new net stores in russia this year but that plan has obviously changed. And adidas plans to own its own stores in russia. Adidas is bigger in nike in russia but nike has been gaining shares in russia. And nike has just a tick of earnings warnings about the earnings of that. It says it seems to be getting a near term slowdown it and has to keep an eye on russia. What is that code for, jeff . I mean, it depends on how big their sales are in russia compared to the rest of the world. And i dont know that. I dont cover the company. But i want to make the point that we think the emerging markets are going to grow about 4. 5 next year. Which is double everybody else. Not what it used to be. Not as exciting as what it used to be. Unless this turns into a Global Financial crisis which i dont think its going to do, you have to keep this in perspective. Central europe, yes. Exports to russia to be a little bit of a hit there to growth. So i wouldnt go overboard on this one. And also just see how much of a battle out of these consumer facing companies are making in russia. When fifa announced the world cup was going to be held in russia, they were still excited. Is it still on . England loses every four years like clock work. That was just for you. Well, we lose twice. First of all, they wont let us stage the world cup anymore even though weve got the worlds best stadium. And we always lose on the field anyhow. All the sponsors were really excited. Youve got emirates. Youve got adidas. Theres no can i just say, scott, you sound like lauren mccall. No, i sound like you. Can i show what irene did . We have a fan this morning watching. She tweeted this in from philadelphia. Look at that. Small in stature, big on bow ties. Look at that. Thank you. We appreciate it. One ear cocked because hes listening on radio. Futures up six. Dow futures up 51. Brendan, its a healing market as we go into the weekend, but, i mean, oil, 5. 59. We started talking in early november. Maybe all the work is done. People are just looking forward to the holiday parties and that has turned out not to be true at all. It is a busy news month. December is being the best month for emerging markets on average of any month of the year. This has been a disaster so far. Its Getting Better in the last two days. And 20 years ago, we had another disastrous december which is my parallel with you. So typically, you get year in rallies. But starting now, weve got two very strong two days. Were going to find out. Coming up, Michael Holland joins us as a guest host on television and hes the chairman of holland and company. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television streaming on your tablet, your phone and at bloomberg. Com and streaming to a dog in philly. Good morning, everyone. Futures up five. Dow futures up 48. The ruble stronger. Heres Brendan Greeley. So, i picked this up from peter writing in Bloomberg News this morning. Its a beautiful future that starts and looks at a massive number of bridges. If you lined up all the structurally deficit bridges in the country end to end, they would stretch from boston to miami. And the feature really walks through just how hard it is not just to find the money to spend on infrastructure but politically to get it spent. The issue is not just coming up with it. Its convincing people that this is a worthwhile task. It seems like a nobrainer. You borrow money cheaply and you spend on stuff that youre going to need no matter what. It unfortunately bangs up against the political environment in the u. S. Im no expert on this but obviously at last, real lack on desire to spend any money at all on the political spectrum. And its not how you think prevents this. It creates jobs too. To get are the airport to the city center, its usually a breeze in places like china. And then you come to u. S. And you arrive at j. F. K. Tell us what thats like. Im not sure chinas your best comparison. Well, beijing. Yeah. Ive lived in the u. S. For 25 years, so im used to it. Your first welcome so to speak is to sit on the van wick for half an hour and takes you an hour and a half to get to town in london, we have the wonderful Heathrow Express in 20 minutes. Yeah, and nothings changed in 25 years. Thats the amazing part. Even things like from boston to new york. What is it . 200 miles . If that was in tokyo, you would do it in an hour and a half. Thats led by the local politics. Theres some real argument about who repairs the lines. We have a correction from the control room. You can, in fact, take a train from j. F. K. To penn station. Yes, you can. But through youve got to go through until you repair the track, change the tracks and take the curves out of the tracks, you cant go fast enough. The train goes fast enough. The tracks dont. Im not an expert. No, no, no, you are because you have to travel this way. Youve become an expert. This is one point in the u. S. Where theres a real divergence. And people here, who dont know how pad things are. Yep. And again, its a form of stimulus for next year. Look at the Economic Data yesterday. We go back to a 2 . Or if the politicians are willing to spend it. A lot more to cover. Coming up, what is the market in 2015. Our twitter question of the day by the way, as we head into Super Saturday. Are you shopping on Super Saturday . Tom is. Brendan is waiting until december 24. Tweet us on the surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Im tom keene. Brendan greeley here with us with this mornings headlines. The global stock rally picks up where it left off. Asian index higher. The s p 500 is headed for its best week in two months. The s p climbed 4. A in the last two sessions. Bill ackman is facing new allegations this morning of insider trading. He made about 2. 5 billion from his ininvestment in botox maker al began. Aler began. And steven corps bare of the colbert report ended his nineyear run. He brought down the curtain on his kind of real, but not real pundit. He told his audience that things have come full circle. Another bush governor is running for the white house. People on tv are defending torture. We [laughter] are sending troops into iraq. When this show began, i promised you a revolution. And i have delivered. Because technically, one revolution is 360 degrees right back to where we were. [laughter] the shows finale included a starstudded singalong, jon stewart, randy newman, bill clinton, george lucas, brian koran son and many others. Thats real read like tom keenes mythical last dinner. Those are all the people who would come. It would be a different group. Colbert will replace David Letterman as the host of cbss the late show. Those are your top headlines. Isnt he supposed to be Stephen Colbert again . Colbert was just a personality. I dont know. Here we turn to europe. Ere was european and transatlantic unanimity until today. E. U. Arrived yesterday. I will quote him. I prefer to position myself in a crisis exit hypothesis. Hans nichols joins us from berlin. Hans, what does that mean . Its a quote from star trek, clearly. No, look, the French Economy is more tied up. Theres weapon ships. Theres helicopter transports. Theyre looking for ways to get off of this conflict. And the difference between him and merkel, its quite cute. Merkel is saying really the only way we can lift these sanctions is if the situation on the ground changes. That is troops move out of crimea, not just iran. And what hollande is saying if russia promises a few things, maybe we will lift a few sanctions. The sanctions run out in july so if you dont get unanimity, Francois Hollandes position wins out. Does this come as a real urprise yesterday . They were supposed to have this debate to wind down the sanctions in march. So lan bringing this up in cember theres a bloomberg headline of a showing in the airport. Why are we talking about sanctions if im seeing war headlines out of ukraine . Because hollande and emember, he had that airport meeting with putin. Hollande thinks putin has the power and maybe willing to pull back some of those rebel forces if he has Operational Command and control over them. This is hollande really trying to open the door for putin to have an off ramp to this situation. It may be a fools errand but this is hollande really trying to make it possible even though as you mentioned, fighting on the ground is still very real. Brendan, five killed, seven wounded in the last 24 hours. This is surreal. Im mystified. Never a dull moment with francois hollande. Its a revolution. Were back where we started. Yes. The collapse in oil behind all of this. Its time to reset the outlook on emerging markets. Geoffrey dennis is here and one of your themes for 2015 is the focus on reform over cyclicality at least in asia. That means youre pro china and india and antikorea and taiwan, right . Correct, correct. The real elepha