Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150312 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150312

Northwest of the Ferguson Police department, several shots were fired. At least three, and two officers were struck. Olivia the Ferguson Police chief is the first is the latest official to leave after the conclusion that the government fostered systemic racism. And Deutsche Bank and santander. Jpmorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley were cleared only after they result revised their proposal. Bank of america was told to resubmit its plan. Citigroup and 24 other banks passed without any conditions. The fed is using a stress test to prevent the repeat of the two thousand eight financial crisis. In another high profile embarrassment for the secret service. Two secret agents have an reassigned after crashing a government car into a White House Security barricade. The Washington Post said the accident occurred after a night of drinking. Last month, president obama appointed a new permanent head of the secret service after a series of highprofile security breaches. Hillary clintons plans to use private email drew some concerns early on. According to the wall street journal this morning, aides to president blue two former president bill clinton were concerned about hacking. Many are skeptical about why Hillary Clinton used a private email account but dan pfeiffer tells charlie rose it would be a bigger outlook for lesserknown candidate. Dan republicans have looked at hillary for a long time. They know a lot about her. This is one of those things that is happening because of the vacuum in a political discussion right now, and once there is an up and running campaign, this will be faint memory. Olivia meanwhile, the Associated Press has sued the state department seeking the release of all of Hillary Clintons emails. In chinese biggest and chinas Biggest Company is investing in tom keenes favorite app, snapchat. The mobile app is valued at 15 billion. That would make snapchat the third most valuable startup behind uber and chinese smartphone maker xiaomi. And critics say barbie has gone too far. The new hello barbie is wifi connected and will respond when kids speak, but privacy advocates point out that childrens voices will be recorded and then sent over the web to a server. That is where the voice will be process. Tom are you kidding me . Olivia critics call it creepy. Tom yeah, creepy. I am all over it. I barbie is really struggling. There is a lot of cultural stuff going on here that nobody is talking about as well. We have a data check. We could do an hour data check this morning. Futures up 5, we are really getting back prejobs, 2. 08, the euro at a 1. 0591. Nymex has been soggy for the last 18 hours, 48. 5 dollar index hit 100. Sterling3. The under a 1. 50. Brent crude was a 56. We are back to 50 eight dollars today. To get us started on bloomberg surveillance, today, this is the rubin dollar, the old trading partners. This is not brought trade weighted. Here is the Dollar Strength down we go, here is the eight, 10 years of weakness. I use this to find the center point. We are now halfway back. Are we going to call this the jack lew dollar . The pulseolivia probably not. It does look a lot like currency wars. Overnight, south korea became of the latest to central bank to cut the rates. This divergence is because of fundamental reasons. The u. S. Is going to raise rates for the first time in a decade. This is the story of Dollar Strength. Tom exactly. Olivia i was struck by comments by jon ferro, he says the reason is because nobody would believe mario draghi would buy negative yields. Period that means we need to turn tom that means winning to turn to james foley of rubble bank. Gold coming up. Olivia has a great segment coming up. We go to jane foley in london. Jane, i know it is like dow 10,000, for what is the symbolism of the exwife of d xy to a grizzled pros like yourself . Jane it is a psychological level, but not perhaps as much as parity, not just for fx pros but for almost everybody in euro. That is the level we are reaching, a lot of market forecasters are chasing the forecast that have been coming down all year. A lot of people are thinking about parity. The big question is the timing. Is this going to happen quite soon, or is this something was is going to be delayed. I think the lady will call the shot on the eurodollar, but of course Janet Yellen Tom absolutely. The mining question this morning, i know libya, you have a great question, does this make janet yellen blank . The money question this morning, i know, libya, you have a great weston does this make janet yellen blink . Jane even a moaned a bit about Dollar Strength, and why wouldnt they . The bank is cutting Interest Rates, and i think that makes about 24 Central Banks cutting Interest Rates this year alone. Of course the fact that the fed is looking to hike it really means that it has facilitated the dollars strength has facilitated the Central Banks in their ability to try to fight their deflationary pressures. If the u. S. Repaired to stand by and allow is the u. S. Prepared to stand by and allow the Central Banks essentially the cost of the growth in the u. S. Over the next couple of years . Olivia jane what is the reason . We saw they divergence coming last night we broke through 1. 05. Jane the speed is taken everybody by surprise, particularly when you think about these top market the stock market. With the ecb easing the stock market might go up, and you might see some capital inflow. The speed has taken everyone by surprise, but i think really the payroll data last week, the headline data the weight component of that. It is another nail in the coffin if you would like for the eurodollar because there is more talk in the market that maybe the rate hike its back on the agenda for the u. S. Tom jane , thank you so much at jane foley, thank you so much at rabobank. Ian bremmer may call it a gzero world. Geraldo rodriguez is in blackrocks emerging markets group. Carl riccadonna with us as well with bloomberg intelligence. How do you compare this moment to the true shock of 1998 or other periods . We are really seeing some brutal move it in right now. Geraldo absolutely, there is a big distinction between a 1994 crisis olivia the tequila crisis. Tom how did you know that . Olivia i read gerardos notes. Gerardo you have Exchange Rates that are flexible across the board. So changing by generalized Dollar Strength, it is relatively low, and if anything, the weakness in currencies associated with the broadest transfer of the dollar is actually a source of strength when we think about going forward, gross prospects, export gross prospects in e. M. , look for much better Exchange Rates. Tom critically, does this fold over . Carl riccadonna, we see gold coming down. Do you just suggest that its full over to Global Equity markets as well . Carl it depends on earnings, momentum, and Economic Growth momentum. Over the past three or four years, it has changed precisely because growth momentum in e. M. Has not picked up. Is it a weaker e. M. Currency that will trigger that . History tells us that value is the main driver of performance in e. Mm. Equity markets. Value has been underperformed by e. M. Currencies. Going forward, that has to be good for e. M. As an asset for us. Olivia what happens when janet yellen does raise rates . Gerardo i think we have seen already a lot of that. Back in may of 2014, we saw that. Markets are anticipating that move. Interest rates have gone up already, credit spreads have gone up, and credits are adjusting, so the markets are already olivia the markets are adjusting because they themselves are evaluating. Gerardo but that is precisely the monetary force. Japan and europe is striving to a very larger extent this movement. One thing here is em. M. Currencies have depreciated around 15 against the dollar over the past year. They have been trending against the euro 15 so that tells you the other underlying Economic Fund the metals in e. M. Are actually not that bad. Leavd the dollar against the euro in against the yen driving. Tom this is esoteric, and we will have a lot of esoteric rescissions. Carl, give me the esoteric of the American Economy. The atlanta fed is seeing some real soggyiness. Are you ratcheting down at the Bloomberg View . Carl it is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the fed. I think janet yellen has to take patient out of the statement next week. That is not mean that june is a paid account the is the paid to calmly. A lot of people say x words are 12 to 14 of gdp, so it is only affecting a small part of the economy. It has a larger impact. Any domestic industry that is competing with imports is being affected by this dramatic movie dollar, about a 20 change. Also American Workers are competing against wages abroad. Tom yeah the wage dynamic as well. Gerardo rodriguez and Carl Riccadonna, we could do this for six hours this morning. Olivia where else why the ethics of luck a. M. . Coming up, atwhere else would i be at 6 00 a. M. . Coming up, how low will gas go before we can how low will gold go before we could see a floor . This is bloomberg surveillance. On Bloomberg Television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance in new york city. Euro 1. 0590. Top headlines right now. Here is olivia sterns. Olivia we have a latest from ferguson, missouri where two Police Officers were seriously wounded overnight during protests outside the city Police Station. It happened hours after the citys police chief resigned. The st. Louis suburb was plagued by violence last summer after an unarmed black teenager was fatally shot by a white Police Officer. Some of the nation pose the biggest banks some of the nations biggest banks had a tough time passing the stress test. The u. S. Units of Deutsche Bank and Fenton Santander fail the test. Also, anger over the racist Oklahoma University video spread to texas. People protested outside the home of the north texas student leading the chant. The sigma epsilon chapter has been close. And the new york state comptroller says the average bonus was nearly 175,000. The industry added 23 hundred new jobs in new york, the first expansion since 2011. A big lawsuit ahead for facebook, over Online Purchases made by kids without their parents permission. Facebook says it plans to defend itself vigorously. Nasa has a blast and the utah desert. It successfully test fired the worlds biggest rocket booster. The engine fired perfectly. The 24 million horsepower booster could eventually carry astronauts to mars. Those are your top headlines. Gold is in the midst of its longest slump in six years, and to add injury to insult march is usually the worst month. With an average price wrap up 1 . We are joined now by btbs commodities analyst jim steele. Great to have you on set of this morning. Jim thank you. Olivia at one point Consumer Retail demand from china and india jim we have seen a rapid drop recently and the dollar led for most exclusively in the last couple of weeks. The kick in from physical demand is probably going to occur quite soon i would think. We have a four dollar to five dollar premium in shanghai compared to a local london which means it is tax sporting golden to china. We expect that demand, now that we are beyond the edges, it would begin to pick up as well. The pulse what is olivia what is the most important driver of gold right now you go people are looking to hedge against deflation. \jjim it is negative for gold coupled with a stronger dollar. This is a powerful bearish cocktail. I think that is why we have dropped. Tom come on in here and look at gold. This is inflationadjusted. We have got another boom and down we are. The gold bug in richard reid. You say it is a cocktail. What will be the catalyst to get gold under 1000 an ounce . Jim i think we would need a more extreme events, possibly much greater Dollar Strengthen we have even seen today. Tom Dollar Strength where you get a true rubenjack lew dollar. How does that for you to the fear this is away from your expertise on demand but how does it following from the reality of disinflation . Jim as a traditional inflation hedge and of a hard asset tom why would i need gold . Jim you would not need it if you thought the dollar was going to remain strong, that would dissuade you from being a big buyer of gold. There is also the argument that gold is still a good portfolio diversification instrument tom you sound like a lawyer jim oh no, no no. I could never have gotten through law school. Tom when you look at it, james steel how did the etfs change the dynamics of gold . Jim that was one of the reasons the market was able to get up to the highest that it was. Before the etf, we did not have a good way for many investors to be able to buy gold and hold it without problems of insurance and storage. Tom i love those in my dresser drawer. Jim exactly. There is a premium for points. It is a much more simple way of doing things. Tom carl you are dying to get in here. What have you got . Carl this is not a jack lew dollar. This is a janet yellen dollar. Tom excuse me, shot stop the show, is that a surveillance correction . Carl it is a Bloomberg View objection. Jiolivia jon im i think we will come and that will stave the market above 100 will about this price, gold will be very attractive and the emerging markets them up but they held off because there were thought that the Indian Government would reduce the tearrif, which is very high on gold, 10 in the last budget on the 28th of february, and they did not, so those who held back may have to now replenish the coffers. Tom fabulous. Olivia thank you so much, jim. We have to have you back on simple stop james steel back on soon. James steel with hsbc commodities. Tom oil falling beneath 50 a barrel. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Futures up 6. Here is olivia sterns. Olivia my morning mustread comes from Ambrose Prichard writing in the Daily Telegraph Gerardo Rodriguez of blackrock still with us on set. How punishing will this be to the emerging markets you look at . Gerardo i think most of the pain has already been processed through the system, and we are seeing some policy actions and reaction to this thanks to the Central Bank Rate cut by korea last night, mexico announced fx measures to lower the volatility of fx markets, but again, you take a step back and major currencies are dragging these movements. There is not much in e. M. That is specific. Olivia we will leave it there. Bloomberg surveillance will be right back. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Some stability in the markets after a wild 3 00 a. M. Morning in europe. Lets get to top headlines. Olivia two Police Officers have been shot at a protest in ferguson, missouri. They were seriously wounded at a shooting near ferguson rosie Police Station. Road testers had gathered there after the police chief had resigned. The shooting occurred just as many were headed home. Jon police chief belmar the night was uneventful until midnight, the crowd was breaking up, in fact several officers had left the area. To the immediate north northwest of the Ferguson Police department, several shots were fired, at least three, and two officers were struck. Olivia last summer, riots broke out in ferguson after a Police Officer shot and killed an unarmed black teenager. Fergusons police chief is the latest official to leave in a toplevel shakeup. Last week, the Justice Department found out that ferguson fostered systemic racism. Wall street biggest banks almost got stressed out. Jpmorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley had a tough time passing the stress tests. They were cleared up there only they revise their decisions to pay back shareholders. The u. S. Units of Deutsche Bank and santander also failed. Citigroup and 24 other banks passed without any conditions. U. S. Units of Deutsche Bank and santander, as i said, failed the test. The fed uses the stress test to event a repeat of the financial crisis. And the imf is coming to the aid of ukraine. While it fights prorussian rebels, imf chief Christine Lagarde said ukraine will get money if it makes progress on economic reform. Chief lagarde i can assure you that ukraine has satisfied all of the prior actions that were expected and required of it in order to start moaning running the programs. Olivia ukraine hopes to get back 40 billion. The u. S. And the European Union are expected to control the to contribute the money for stop in florida, there was a candlelight vigil for seven marines and four

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