Their intention to try to do their best to overcome the difficulties of the Greek Economy as soon as possible. Olivia no clearcut date when Greece Greece would run out of money. It could be a matter of weeks. President obama urging irans young people to pressure their leaders on the nuclear deal. In a Youtube Video marking persian new year the president argued freezing the Nuclear Program could lead to a better relationship. President obama a nuclear deal could open the deal to a Brighter Future for the american people. Who, as heirs to a great civilization, have so much to give the world. This moment may not come soon. Olivia the wall street journal says talks have stalled over economic sanctions. The run want want iran wants sanctions phased out right away, the u. S. And europe want them repealed of for a number of fields. Gulf Oil Ministers say opec needs to keep pumping oil. The cartel has resisted calls to cut back production. Brendan a startling report about google. An ftc report in 2012 concluded google abused its monopoly in search and advertising in ways that hurt internet users. Ftc staff recommended the agency sued google on antitrust grounds. Google agreed to change practices. The agency gave the report to the wall street journal by mistake as part of a foia request. An eclipse in europe in germany that halted output from solar panels. They provide 40 of the countrys power. Grid operators switched to natural gas and coal to make up. In sports, some bracket busting in the ncaa tournament. For the first time in 20 years, two teams seeded 14 beat the number three seed. Georgia state stunned baylor. The coachs son nailed a three point shot with less than three seconds to go. Georgia state trailed by 12 and scored the last 13 points of the game. Alabama birmingham knocked out iowa state. Vegas loved the game. Tom underdogs. I was mediocre. The only thing constructive i am ahead of the president in brackets. Brendan here we go. A lot of coaches get raises just to make it into the tournament. Even teams that are leaving. Olivia this is an unusual way to start march madness. Less than 1 of all brackets filled out 273 out of 11. 5 million brackets are still intact. That is not. Brendan stephen f. Austin tom it is like a lottery. Olivia it is a six sigma event. Brendan it is quadratic tom olivia with some standard deviation action. We will keep it math free, one big churned. Nice undercurrents, oil, 43. 66, somewhat of a bid. Vix, 14. 77, spread is flattening. Renminbi is the huge story. The yuan shows a back story on real estate in china. That bears watching everything weekend. This is something Brendan Greeley is up to speed on. Greecegerman yields. These are elevated yields and here is the crisis in greece we get better, draghi, thank you. This is the story. Brendan these are two different movements. This is credit uncertainty. This is political uncertainty. We do not know what is going to happen. New regime and new promises they had not been fulfilled or denied by the eu. This is political uncertainty. Tom the catalyst is the liquidity around the political uncertainty. Theres a little bit on the markets on this off friday. My tie looks like i did my brackets last night. I am sorry. Ill tie my tie during the break. Olivia looks like the Solar Eclipse. Tom 1662 is the last time we had an eclipse. I was just starting geometry back then. Brendan it is a shame that the german power grid cannot tap into your enthusiasm. You could power the country. Olivia live pictures right now. Tom this is between iceland and scotland on the way to the Jonathan Ferro islands. Olivia you know what that is called . A waning gibbous. Tom astronomy with olivia we will move on to something we know about. After the yellen fireworks, markets are dropping markets adjust to the fed. To an economy that suggests subdued revenue and earnings growth. Thomas lee is cofounder and head of research at fun strap. He is able he is able he is a bull. Thomas it is a minority position right now. Tom what are the new walls of worry from the last time you were darkening our dork . Our door . What is the fear your clients have . Thomas if there is a chart people do not like, one is the dollar, it looks very parabolic. And then it is oil because it is continuing to be weak. In their minds, two of these happening like once is like [laughter] a Solar Eclipse. Olivia you came out in december, your year and target to 3. 25, 23. 25, a 15 depreciation. A love that was on capex. Does the decline in oil change that . Thomas we will get some sense in a couple weeks when q1 comes out. I think theres a capex story. 900 companies have given guidance, they are fighting for single digit increases last year, the same companies guided down 6. It ended up being flat. Companies rarely cut capex. I think we are talking, even with energy cutting capex 20 to 25 . Brendan i have been hearing the same argument about the bull market as i have about growth in china. Because it has gone up at some point it has to go back down the reversion of the mean argument. Sounds like theres not going to be a perversion to the mean, we are seeing a longterm change. Thomas theres something unusual about the u. S. Economy. The consumer has been deleveraging for like five years. Companies have not been spending. We are almost essentially in a recession in some terms. Housing starts are at recession levels. Brendan do you call that a credit recession . Tom come on this is critical. As an equity guy when the atlanta fed says 0. 3 gdp, that is lousy. The you think that is a oneoff First Quarter event or do you drag that in to the rest of 2015 . Thomas when i think of the components of what gdp is, i think there is some suppression. There is upside for investment to pick up. We know investment spending in the u. S. Collectively is 23 of gdp. It should be, midcycle is 25 ended peaks at 28 . Tom this is the yellen chart, the qre chart, correction free. There was a government slowdown glitch. Help me with this. We are addicted to owning stocks and nothing bad happens. Howdy respond to the people that say you are setting yourself up for a 10 correction or 18 beer market . Thomas both are inevitable. Tom obviously but it has not happened. You and i have aged looking at this. Thomas we tried to study what drives corrections. They are very unpredictable. A correction instead of something we want to anticipate is how we want to react. Their markets are a lot more predictable. The two things to watch are the Business Cycle maturing and yield curves inverting longterm. Neither is happening. The bull market is in great shape. I do not know about a correction. Brendan you have written that this is a good time to be an active investor . Are there good and that times how do you know when that has arrived . Thomas for the last three years it has been an awful time to be an active investor. The benchmarks trounced most managers. Part as it is that price discovery has not taken place in the markets. Sector dispersion in the last three years was narrow. You could not really sector weight your way out of beating the benchmark. I think the bond proxy trade made it tough to do anything but owned lowvolume stocks. My anecdote i think the bond proxy trade moved to europe. A lot of hedge funds think it is easier now that qe is taking place. Second, historically low dispersion is followed by normalization. Im optimistic. I think 2015 will start to be a good year for managers and is a return to the early 2000s and the 1990s. Olivia you are predicting the s p is coming up 15 and you are telling your client youre going to do better than that net fees this year. Thomas yes. And things that are subtle like contrarian stocks, beating the index. Tom tom lee with us. We focus on the Dollar Strength later. Olivia tom lee at fun strap fundstrat. Eu leaders pledged to extend sanctions, will they follow through . Happy friday. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. With me, Olivia Sterns and Brendan Greeley. Heres olivia. Olivia in brussels, europe possibly to have a simple message for greece. They are telling Alexis Tsipras his country must submit a more concrete plan so bailout talks can speed up. Greece is running out of money and president obama is urging irans young people to pressure leaders on the nuclear deal. In a Youtube Video marking the persian new year, the president argued that a deal could lead to a better relationship. Crossing the terminal this hour, Islamic State and other groups are claiming responsibility for the massacre in tunisia. Nine suspects in custody. The attack when stake at a museum killed 22 people. Two gunmen were killed in a shootout with police. The fbi investigating the hanging death of a black man in mississippi the victim is identified as 54yearold otis burns. The body was found there his home. Officials not saying whether it was a homicide or suicide. The First Nationwide safety rules on fracking could be released today. The announcement is expected p limits would apply only to land and by the government. Environmentalists want the practice band. Manny pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will square off. Pacquiao wanted a penalty if either opponent failed a drug test, mayweather said no. The bout could be a mostly grid of all time. Heres a look at what is coming up. At 6 30, will the strong dollar stop equities from hitting new highs . We asked tom lee. 6 40 is the weak euro sending tourists to europe . 6 50, why it might make sense to charter your next flight. Tom we are lucky to have this from the prescott observatory. I believe this is the Faroe Islands between iceland and scotland. This is the actual eclipse going on near svalbard. Brendan svalbard is farther north, up to almost the top of greenland. Tom this is a moon closer to the earth than normal. This was 12 hours ago, the mood much closer to us in much bigger blocking the sun. Whats fascinating is a curve north and south at the north pole. Brendan weve never seen this. I was not a route in 1660 two, you speak for yourself. I am considering which patent right pagan rite i will participate in. Ryan last night, eu leaders announced a that they had agreed not to do much on ukraine. They strengthened they neither strengthened sanctions neither decided to extend them. Brendan you reported on this from moscow and just came back from donetsk. One of the things we read is that Vladimir Putins goal is to split europe in two. The baltics and pollen pushing for hard sanctions and Southern Europe not excited. Has he succeeded . Ryan they had a couple options, one of the things that was not on the table was strengthening sanctions. They had the choice to extend onto the end of the year or waiting until june. They found a more aggressive option than doing nothing which they said we will return in june. We will not extend them now lets give the russians an opportunity to do what we want. But we are going to tie the removal of the existing sanctions to that minsk deal ho llande and merkel cut with putin. Brendan is the minsk deal being upheld . Ryan a deal is held as long as the parties that signed it think it is. More or less, they are happy to say it is. There are a lot of science, this is something i saw in done yet international airport, this could fall apart easily. Olivia fantastic reporting. I encourage everyone to go to bloomberg. Com and check out those reports. You said everyone you spoke to nobody did expect the peace to hold. Is there a belief that putin will not stop until he has a land bridge to crimea . Ryan i do not think it is about a land bridge. It is about asserting the power of russia and the importance of russia i ukraine. He can do that without a land bridge, he needs political power in kiev. You can ferry stuff to crimea. Russia has an enclave that is not contiguous. I do not think that is a huge point. He wants to destabilize ukraine. Tom Ryan Chilcote on ukraine. Wendy you go back to ukraine . Ryan i dont know. I have to rest. A few weeks. Tom we look at new capitalism on wall street. Vikram mansharamani from yale joins us. Stay with us on this friday. Bloomberg surveillance, futures up 5. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Brendan morning mustread facebook crashes. I think facebook can succeed even though every Company Wants to get into payments. When it comes to networks it is hard to compete with facebook. Wantthis is the network effect. If you have to introduce a new product you have got to make sure everybody on the new product for example, i cannot remember what it is called snapchat. Olivia try to get us to use snapchat. Facebook has this amazing network. How do you take that out for a ride and use the network you have created to introduce new products . Katies opinion, it makes sense facebook is in a position to roll new things out. Olivia they now own whatsapp which has how many million users . This is a huge deal. I wonder if this is a death knell for venmo, that has caught on like wildfire. When you want dinner in new york city with people between the age of 20 and 35, half of them have venmo on their phones, one person pays and they say i will venmo you. Its a sticky network, everybody is artie on it. Brendan im struck by the thought that olivia is living five years in the future. Tom i have a sheltered life, how does this fit into apple pay . Brendan what apple pay can take advantage of his credit card networks. Facebook does not have, is not yet offering a source of credit. I do not think that is in the cards for sheryl sandberg. Apple pay uses existing systems and makes them better, facebook is creating a new one. Olivia you wonder if facebook is going to go persontoperson or person to commercial transaction, they brought in david from paypal. You have the feeling you are going to walk into a store and pay with your facebook wall. Tom i have a checkbook, do you know what a check is . Olivia i do. Tom im afraid to ask the last time you wrote a check. Olivia every once in a while. Our twitter question is the strong dollar affecting your vacation plan . Tom good morning. S p futures up five points. Top headlines, here is olivia. Olivia a bailout package. Not making any guarantees. Leaders met late. Greece is running out of cash. The Prime Ministers also running out of time. We need to speed up the process. There has been too much time. We should not lose any more time. We discussed speeding up the process. If i said it was done in a fashion mutual trust. Olivia a promise to do so last month. There was no firm deadline. Estimates are that greece could run out of cash within just a few weeks. President obama has a message for the young people of iran. Tell leaders to accept the deal off the the deal of the Nuclear Plant is on the table. He told them agreeing to free the Nuclear Program could lead to a bigger relationship. Both sides have agreed to a deadline for an agreement. The relationship between president obama and Benjamin Netanyahu not getting warmer. The white house is reconsidering using its veto on behalf of israel. That came after a phone call between the president and netanyahu. The president told no yahoo the u. S. Would reassess its. Netanyahu is backing away from remarks. Brendan a billion dollars in emergency spending to deal with drought. Record rain and snowfall have left california reservoirs less than full. Global warming will cause other problems the state must address. A Climate Change and there will be more extreme weather events. You get drought and all the sudden while you are focused on drought, you can get massive storms that flood through these channels. They overflow and cause havoc. Brendan if they approve it would be used for Flood Control and other projects. The firstday of spring, more snow. A storm will dump up to half a foot of snow in the midatlantic. The worst here in new york, four to six inches of wet snow. For once, boston will get a break. It will be burning socks. The faa has given the goahead for amazon to test drone delivery. Only within 400 feet of the ground and insight of a pilot with a license. Tom a raging debate, interview after interview. How to gauge and measure the impact of u. S. Dollar strain. Cofounder and head of research lets dive into this. Is the dollar the markets friend or enemy . The market has not determine that yet. I think it is a friend. Tom what does it mean for a dow stock. What does it mean for the different sizes of companies . Thomas it makes companies with more u. S. Revenue more secure. Tom do you have to go true domestic . Thomas it depends on if you look at what happened straight if the Dollar Strength is not sustained or plateauing it can make a difference. I am not a dollar forecaster. Brendan he is trying to tell you he is quietly skating to where the puck is going, not where it is. Olivia a nowin out that it is all rubbish. There is no relation between stronger dollar and equity performance. Thomas that is correct. When you look at historical episodes of Dollar Strength when the dollar goes up, pe goes up, but there is an earnings hit. Domestic stocks do better. Olivia you are saying theres a negative correlation between gas prices and apparel sales. Thomas we published a note this morning. 80 of households spend the same amount on gasoline as on apparel. Olivia i spend more on apparel just for the record. Thomas the drop of gasoline means a lot of prior power for apparel and entertainment spending. This correlation tom cinderella in imax is in your future. Brendan i hate to recite the pledge of allegiance, but do we have a unique economy . Thomas we have a growing population and encourages business formation. Consumers have a lot of cash. Companies have cash. I do not feel the Business Cycle is something i am more it about. Olivia wire retail sales still soggy . Thomas the weather, we are still in the heat and oil season. Brendan the euro is down. We might get tom to spend sometime in france. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning. Lets get to a single be