This is bloomberg surveillance. I am Jonathan Ferro in london. Attention, brazil and japan. Roubini was right. Everybody laughed when professor 5, as youid qe 3, 4, know from your conversation with the bank of england yesterday, more qe seems to be the order at the end of the year. Jonathan more from tom in a moment. Vonnie quinn standing by with news. U. S. And russia have signed a deal to avoid aerial accidents over syria. Aircraftment regulates and drone flights. The Usled Coalition has been bombing targets in syria for over a year. Russia launched airstrikes three weeks ago. Paul ryan says hes willing to run for speaker of the house but conservative republicans are balking at some of his demands. Ryan, chairman of the ways and means committee, spoke to reporters. Everis is not a job i have wanted. Im at the job i have always wanted. This is a dire moment not just for congress but for our country. I think our country is in need of leadership. Vonnie one of ryans demands, he wants aouchy procedural change to the procedure used to remove john boehner. Antonin scalia says he would not the deathed to see penalty struck down. He was speaking at the university of minnesota. Deal in the Semiconductor Industry. Kla 10 car valued at 24 . Hugs and tears for curry and loved ones after decades apart. Hundreds of couples and families reuniting at a north korean resort. First timeg for the since they were divided them 60 years ago. The meetings are organized by the north but infrequently. David its to certainly a global feel the news. A data check, very quiet out there. Futures churn up three. Dow closing 17,217. Nymexcrude a little soft. 59, a 44 print would be a big deal. Vix says it all as equity markets do better. We saw that in japan with a prospect of qe to be more beneficial with the vix 15. 75. Theclosed not far from 18,000 level. Conversation. Ur i did not realize how Credit Suisse has under performed versus j. P. Morgan. A lot of people are saying Credit Suisse is late to party with equity raising and the change of plans. At least theyre getting to it now. Tom one of the things were hearing is the cash call, the way to control leverage is to simply have more cash. That gets us started with our important guest in london. Jonathan and the markets the one thing i look at is doll aryen. Asset strategist at Morgan Stanley. You get some weight data out of japan, export you get some weight data out of japan, export numbers lowest in years. Does Morgan Stanley get excited . Andrew we are cautious on boj action. We do not think they will act because core inflation and japan is starting to pick up. We dont think it is bad enough to change their attack. If they simply by more government bonds, will the market see that as credible . We think the most likely policy action and japan is on the physical side. Potentially changing the Corporate Tax rate. That is the catalyst we would look for in japan. Jonathan that i look to the markets and wonder what it is in. I wonder whether the market is going to get caught wrongfooted. What is your view in the short term for japanese assets . Andrew our view on the yen is different from investors that we speak to appear to wait believe the yen will remain at current levels. Many investors disagree and believe that japan wants to weaken the currency. We believe that importers and exporters and japan are happy. It is already the cheapest currency in the world on a purchasing power parity basis and trading at extreme levels. Our view on Japan Equities is that it is going to be a market more likely saw in the first half of this year driven by micro factors more than a market that is a currency trade. Tom i love the idea of micro versus macro. Decisiontcome of the that all markets and particularly equity markets just churn into the end of the year . Andrew our view is that we think the equity markets can continue to move higher. I do not think they will just tread water. Our view is based on a couple factors. The market will become increasingly comfortable that data and china is stabilizing. The developed market is seeing resilience based on a strong consumer. What were seeing in oil and the dollar is very important. These are measures that have had extreme moves on a yearoveryear basis. If they can be a little bit more stable, we think some of the market signals could be a little better. An london, ias survived going to a pub with Jonathan Ferro. I did not understand the culture. We discussed which way oil breaks. What does the Morgan Stanley, . Can we visit under 40 a barrel west takes it west texas intermediate . Andrew we think it is more likely that Oil Moves Higher profit and breaks lower. The demand side of oil remains very strong. I think that is one of the more surprising pieces of data highlighted by Morgan Stanleys commodity team. If you look at oil demand out of china, india, korea and the u. S. , demand has been running at high levels. The demand side is already there. On the supply side we will see cutbacks or squaring of production from producers given the level of oil. Likelye is it is more that Oil Breaks Higher as the market starts to think oversupply might not be with us by the middle of next year and the markets have to move before that. Jonathan critical to the markets as the price of oil. We go towards the end of the year and the consensus view is ecb. Qe from the you are saying oil goes higher. What does that mean for the consensus view that we get more qe from the ecb . Andrew i think what we seeing in oil is the simplest of math. It is down a significant amount yearoveryear, almost 50 . That drags down the headline inflation number. In november it does comps look different. The jog on inflation becomes less. It is easy to expect centralbank easing when headline cpi is zero. If oil stays stable, the number should move up. Does the real economy mps, monetary thinking . Gdp, does thatr get in the way of the discussion on the lm curve . It certainly could. I think the challenge the markets have to think about into next year is where is potential growth. If potential growth is very low, even moderate levels of growth, the top of growth we are seeing, will produce pressure and force Central Banks to tie in even if it feels like that is too early. If potential growth is better and there is more space for hold off. That is still an unresolved debate. In our view as we look over the you will seehs very accommodated centralbank policy and a lot of em countries continuing to cut rates as the fed moves towards an exit. Tom andrew will join us on a single digit world coming up later in the hour. Every edition of bloomberg surveillance is special. Another special edition. A conversation with the new onel prize winner inequality. We dive in to the wonderful new book on Henry Kissinger with Neil Ferguson. Talking toward to Neil Ferguson. We will talk about dr. Kissingers oped in the wall street journal this week on syria. 11 00 a. M. In new york. In london, 4 00 p. M. Late in hong kong, stay up for Neil Ferguson and angus deaton. From new york and london, it is bloomberg surveillance. tom we welcome you worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance, a lovely day in new york after a frigid weekend. Jonathan ferro in london. Lets get to a business flash. Vonnie shares of ferrari begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the Ticker Symbol race. Raised 900 million in its ipo, pricing at the top end of the range. Majority shareholder field chrysler is selling a 9 stake. A federal prosecutor in new york is investigating the daily Fantasy Sports business. The wall street journal says prete behar prit bahara wants to know whether Companies Like draftkings violate federal law. A shift for credit squeeze a shift for credit squeeze, Credit Suisse will increase its focus on switzerland and Wealth Management in asia. The Security Unit will be scaledback. Credit squeeze plans and ipl of its Swiss Banking unit by the end of 2017 Credit Suisse its swisspo of banking unit by the end of 2017. Francine lacqua spoke with ceo tidjane thiam. Francine and a lot of things ahead of the strategy were leaked. We know the amount is 6 billion. We knew they would cut costs, 3. 5 billion. He has refocused on the asian wealthy clients. To grill him on was confident that 6 billion in Capital Raising was enough to be a substantial safety cushion. on way to take that is to do what we did last week is to take a number of investors and try to do a nonpreemptive crunch. That has been successful because we have 1. 3 billion dollars of Firm Commitments signed from a bunch of very good names. Francine 6 billion in Capital Raising is a lot. They had some pretty poor earnings from the investment bank. He did say he would cut into the unit. Jonathan good morning, it is jonathan in london. There were not surprises in terms of strategy. For there was a surprise was the performance of underlying earnings. And then comments about switzerland. I do not think people expected swiss unit and for him to comment so much on the Untapped Potential of the country. Francine i asked is this really a surprise . He said it is one of the only things that did not get leaked. Ipo,he talked about the the swiss bank, it is an ipo for will unlocks it value. I dont know if it will dramatically change. Hes trying to think of everything. Tidjane thiam we need to do more. Creating a swiss universal bank. We are number one in equity for 20 years in switzerland. We are number one in ultrahigh net worth with 50 market share. In business it is always easier to do more where you are strong when you want to grow. The notion that we need to put more capital in switzerland is vital. Francine when you look at the share price, it is down. Theres massive Capital Raising. At the same time there are questions about how they will grow asia and not enough about the unwinding of the investment bank. Fromwhat is the pressure the board . The stock underperformed. It is a bank of america equivalent without all the governance battles. What is the mandate from the board to get the stock price going . It is make those profits. This is why the ceo was chosen. If you look at his predecessor, investors put pressure on him because he did not do enough for the investment bank. , they speak to analysts say the strategy has to do with the investment bank. This is a bank that has been laid at implementing changes. Wealth management three years ago and that is why they are being published in terms punished in terms of share price. Tom francia makua, we may see it in new york and asia. Lacqua will continue with us from zurich. Rick will be with us in the next hour. A conversation on company news and technology, particularly yahoo . Heitrific our with rick zmann and Scott Galloway from New York University. This is bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. Jonathan ferro joining you from london. I will cheer you up with your morning mustread. Vonnie i took one from project syndicate. Russia and syria. Asking what happened to glasnost . Saying russian liberalism contributed to its own demise, the west failed to put money behind economic reforms. Russiansputin allows to dream of greatness without getting them into serious trouble. That the liberalism of era is there under the surface but will take time to rise again. I cannotjonathan question professor si delsky, hes a professor at my old school. Is this on your radar . Itrew it is notable that it has not come up more. The market has a limited Attention Span and a limited ability to focus. Geopolitics has been a little bit too hard to read. What you do not see is market of riskin much premium in energy prices. Investors have not focused on this. Anathan are we heading to place where i wake up one morning and the market wakes up to it . What is interesting as it relates to oil and energy prices, where the market is obsessed with the idea that we are awash with oil and there is too much oil floating around, our energy team believes those estimates are probably too high. Might be closer to 700,000 barrels a day. It starts to look like less of a cushion. I think that is where the market focus could change. Francine tom, you have an interview later on with ferguson, who wrote the book on kissinger. Political liberalism can disappear. The op edoes to on syria, do you detect in the u. S. A strategy on the middle east . Complicated is a issue. The u. S. And you k have been dealing with the fallout from moving potentially too quickly into the middle east. Countrieshink in both theres a level of skepticism. Think that is read by some as a lack of strategy. If i look at the political debate it is more driven by prior experience. Tom to the point of coverage zakaria, of fareed maybe it is a postamerican world. I speak with angus deaton on his nobel prize and Neil Ferguson will join us on his book on kissinger. 11 00 a. M. I just had a horrible nightmare. My companys entire network went down, and i was home in bed, unaware. But that would never happen. Comcast business monitors my Companys Network 24 hours a day and calls and emails me if something, like this scary storm, takes it offline. So i can rest easy. What. You dont have a desk bed . Dont be left in the dark. Get proactive alerts 24 7. Comcast business. Built for business. Tom it is a local issue and it has been too frequent. A Police Officer shot dead overnight. We need to inform our new york audience that the fdr up north, 96th to 125th is shut down as the Police Department continues its investigation. A Police Officer shot dead in new york, i believe it is the fourth next year. A sad statistic. We say good morning to all of you and good morning worldwide. On economics,s finance and investment heres a vonnie quinn. Vonnie the u. S. And russia have signed a deal to minimize risk of incidents in syrian airspace. Both the u. S. Coalition and russia are carrying out bombing raids in syria. The deal covers only technical issues, there is no cooperation on targets. Syrianow, the president Bashar Alassad met with Vladimir Putin. Assads first known foreign trip since the war broke out in 2011. Said without Russian Military help, terrorists would have taken control of more territory. The year in union is cracking down on taxes. Starbucks and fear chrysler must pay back taxes. The eu rules they were given illegal tax deals by the netherlands and luxembourg. Paul ryan says he will run for speaker of the house, only if republicans unify and agree to other demands. Conservatives who forced john boehner from the job might balk at what ryan wants, hes seeking a change to the procedure they used to remove john boehner as speaker. The bank of englands in mccafferty says the next move for Interest Rates is likely to be up. He told bloomberg tv that there is tightening and uncertainty. Be an guidance has to expectation and not a promise on the basis that the economy y that wen a wa cannot foresee and we are having to look at the data month by month and quarter by quarter to judge what is the appropriate moment to change Interest Rates. Vonnie mccafferty is the only boe rate setter to support it at the last three meetings. Very quickly on the bank of england. Into next year, what is that in the u. K. Right now . Jonathan that is the fascinating thing. That is the lone dissenter that wants a rate hike now. Governor carney says it comes into sharper relief at the end of the year. The market does not expect a rate hike from the u. K. At the cash until the end of 2016. That is a huge disconnect. Tom extraordinary. This is going to be a lot of fun. Business schools of america study not yahoo , not study a Semiconductor Industry, they will discover what to do about brands in one year, five years or 10 years. That is playing out right now with ferrari. We are fortunate to have tommaso in our studio. I want to go to the corner of 57th street and 5th avenue where others have tried to manage becoming bigger and exclusive. How is ferrari not going to destroy the brand . There is a plan to boost sales by 25 in the next five years. That is just because there is a long waiting list. For Sergio Marchionne, that is a way to boost revenue tom are they going to bring the price of the car down so vonnie can afford one. Tommaso no. From at least 200,000. Tom i can get in a ferrari for 242,000. Why dont i see more in the streets . Tommaso they want to keep the exclusivity. Vonnie on the streets of manhattan, they would stall out. Iposs environment where are being delayed, why do we see ferrari have so much success, it is priced at the high end of the range . Tommaso every investor wants a piece of ferrari and that is what Sergio Marchionne knew. Ipo wentri straightaway to the highest price and the price range. We reported last week that they had, the ipo was multiple times oversubscribed. Vonnie why only 10 . Mmaso they are going to, the family will take the biggest percentage after the spinoff. Jonathan i wonder if vw has one eye on this and looks at ducati and wonders if they can do the same thing. Is considering what to do with its 12 brands. , there was so mu