Tom yes. We are going to cover what, four, five, six stories on surveillance . This morning . All i know is hillary is escaping new york. I like that image from last night. Francine yes. Heres cynthia frelund. Heres vonnie quinn. Vonnie yes. Cruz beat donald trump in the epublican race, 4835. Cruz still has a substantial lead in the delegates. And trump is also still on top in the republican race. Has 433 delegates and sketchtism could affect a treaty that even relations etween the eu and ukraine. But many in the netherlands say its a tracer. And in the u. K. A flat Pension Program takes place today. Affect is said to women and some say it would be less generous in the long run fixed irees to get a amount after 35 years in pension. Foreign ministers head of the the Chicago White sox investment projects that were blocked by could be revised. And the government of india is now investigating offshore business of tycoons and celebrities. Eaked documents show indias and vonnie quinn . Tom thank you so much vanya. Equities are quieter than yesterday. Here was a lot moving oil 3 h now and yesterdays modest currency. 110. 41, careful launching. It is on a stronger support to break down to 1. 09 will be stronger than that. Francine, what do you have . Francine i have european stocks unchanged. Its really Energy Producers that are lifting these. We all have a little bit of mma. Cruz you see getting 37. 4 . Ringlet he malaisian in there and i wanted to show you copper. Up a touch but only a touch. Tom and the ring sleth confidenced indian row tia . Roofy . Rupee . Krona, kroner. I dont know. Francine we are going to get ou on currency camp. Lets do it on tom good morning to all of you watching in poland this morning. Lets this, this is the optimism chart. We will do this with david medical paff in the upcoming hour. This is im out of a job. Ive got to get claimed by a state to the number employed. The ugly necessary recently, d vonnie, heres what killed the destruction in the 1980s. This is about an america that is employed. And we are paying severe prices or will be. Tom francine, what do you have . Francine well, i got briefed by currencies and got this from jane foley who is on set but them the elling white line and the green line, so youre seeing an inversion, and for the fist time, tom, since 2010, all of the transparency paras, i chose sterling, are more with price swings over this month and in the rest of your career. She is senior currency strategist at the bank. Thank you for joining us. We need currency help. We are going to see a lot more volatility because everything is bench marked. The eu referendum, so there is that, but of course u. S. Elections at the end of the year, thats a big risk and europe alone, yes, weve got the referendum in the uk but its a bit of a concern that its a lead, too, that they are of political concern, and i ey we could look and we have seen movements towards far left and the far right. Weve seen in. This is because of a this will come through in various selections as it has already done so, perhaps we can say in spanish and portuguese nd irish and others. Fran is it further east no matter or on the back of commodities . New ll, commoditys, 2007 zealand story and whether or not its sustainable and whats going to happen with respect to chinas yuan. If it doesnt, if it keeps going, then that commodity story isnt so good as perhaps it seems right now. Tom jane, thank you so much for visiting our floor. Nice to have you in the studio. Wheres the bet right now . I dont understand that idea of a oneway bet or a sort of oneway bet. Where is the street . Where is the speculation right now . To be honest i dont know the answer to that story. When we look at the yen we can start markets recovery and the ig drop as well as decline sooths markets concerns. It seems the yen market was not convinced. The yen market was quite concerned and it has remained firm. You had been talking about it and it seems despite recovery in the stocks we have had in the last couple of months, the market is just not convinced. And if they do get better data then perhaps we cannot go elow that 110 mark to 109. Tom this is the trend of the yen and it shows how unusual the ony momics levy was between blue and red and that line and the red circle are. Nobody con creeds like me and francine that the yen could lime to a 100 or 94. For the past 20 years its a little bit outdated. The reason being is over the last 20 years or so, we have seen chinas growing prominence. Particularly in the asian region, now fetishes we started to look at the dollar yen or japanese Effective Exchange rate, we see a completely different story. So one by the bank of japan and not the bank of england, it went to its lowest level since 1973 which means its not as strong as the one i tried to plifmente and theres huge difference between the currency and pair. And from hsbc, we are doing a lot on the litmus paper of the global system with jane foley, durham air will join us from the hsbc and david medical paff francine t hour and lacqua with us. Stay with us. Tom good morning, everyone. We welcome all of you to bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua driving the bus right now in Foreign Exchange. Francine thank you, tom, more asset squares trying to pay down billions in debt. Trying to move to canadas as h pension fund and m posts their firstquarter inmates. H m predicts the situation will improv if i end of the year. And according to a person familiar with the matter, fizer has decided to terminate the deal which would have given her a break down. Thats our Bloomberg Business crash. And heres a person familiar with saying that. Francine he has had a research for intelligence and International Senior and that travel bank, sam, thank you for coming on. Nderstand by and we had a press release that we were going to be looking into this. They are complex rules. All aspects feed into whether pfizer can make this productive or not. Im just going to hold tight and talk about a hypothetical. If they were not to members f the jury it would be a major setback. The o question is setback for whom . A yle has a 15 16 earnings about 7 earnings are g. D. P. On the other hand pfizer was ooking very interesting when they had the slowgrowing business they park all their old trucks into it. It actually pushed us back i two years and some people didnt like that. So this is not perhaps a here k of sam, help me with the tax shield of moving to dublin and with the idea that its a creative deal, well, whivente do a diluted deal . We used to do that for years and years and years. Why not just do a diluted deal . That would be fine if at some point you got something out of the deal. The sure fit is not always tom thank you. Nd it really only made pfizer not top 10 sure onetarily i dont have see, if youre not going to get any appreciation then theres got to be something. I cant necessarily see what it was. Tom but this is the matter. Transactions are being done simply because of the hancement you get from the geographical move of dome crimes. Whats al cans identical . Al can is already a good growth. And the potential of growth in front of it, hopefully if the deal with taber goes through, they will be essentially debtfree or potentially even positive cash. So that positions them nicely for further m a and from an operational perspective, more interesting. So that longterm game is still if he is not fed up with this maybe he can consider coming back and looking at glaxo. Perhaps after that, the elevate the thing that closes all this down and makes it very difficult to make them work if the basic numbers just dont add up is you cant do earnings anymore. And you cant loan back and back. The interest francine are we going to see m a because of currency volatility get stronger . I think the first thing is the tax implications. The u. S. Is not the only government by any stretch of the imagination that wants to clamp down on the tax avoidance. The Global Financial chris circus the large deficit. They have cut the fat and really that they need to get eficit down and inflation. Thats money that we the other thing we know we have lower levels of productivity and in the u. S. And they should be about raising up the economy and when they are not generally filled with that. Tom sam will give us more thofpblet sam, thank you for joining us today with bloomberg surveillance. Peter greg of citigroup is outstanding on Industrial America and specialty customers. We will drag coed into bloomberg surveillance. Withll do that in 30 minutes, good morning. Francine im Francine Lacqua near london. Tom keene is in new york and this is this mornings must read. Rights in bloombergs view, the antitrust vote and its the his person bout press person. Le to put it in simple terms it looks like the republican mom snation going to be chaotic and the convention is not only going to be chaotic but extremely contested. Tom yes. These things have become boring, boring, boring. And this Republican Convention in this late summer is its going to be boring, and whats but senator me, cruz is probably the least loved republican senator by republicans in washington. I dont understand how the g. O. P. Gets behind either candidate. To me its an absolute mystery and of course megan will help us in the next hour. Francine yes. But you can also understand tearing your hair out and that will have an impact on dollar. At the moment, because theres still he hasnt been too worried about this. But as we get closer to november, its more for the u. S. Dollar. If we again, look at u. S. Politics. And either candidates on the republican side and i was reagged we are this mirror that was the far left and the far right. As we were discussing before, theres a lot of disgruntled republicans out there. Assuming clinton remains up there, but there is some risk out there for some chalky implications. Jane foley. The convention is im going to call it 25 days that small affair and we will go right from there and drive this conversation forward with megan and twont all due respect, at 5 00 p. M. Good morning. Tom good morning. In the markets, the york still very cold, yankees crushed by the houston astros. It was like 22 degrees, snow and ice on the pitchers mound. Googling im quickly in celsius, it was minus five. Tom i was exaggerating, but it was called that cold. We have our cold. We have our first word news with vonnie quinn. Vonnie lets start with ted cruz. He defeated them of Trump Wisconsin primary, winning 48 of the vote. He center dot republicans now have a real choice he says republicans now have a real choice. Hillary, get ready, here we come. Vonnie donald trump is still on top. Capade no concessions fees speech, he called Ted Cruz A Trojan horse. Beat Hillarys Clinton 57 to 43 and has his eyes on the next prize. Clintont tell secretary , she is getting nervous and i dont want her to get more nervous, but i believe we have an excellent chance to win new york and a lot of delegates in that state. Vonnie the New York Primary is april 19. Clinton still has a substantial lead in delegates. New zealands former Prime Minister will run for secretarygeneral of the meditations united nations. Rent secretarygeneral term ends later this year. No drama and this National Championship game. Swamped syracuse 82 to 81. Tom, i know you are watching that game. I did a greater in the cavity mens a sensitivity greater sensitivity and analysis of mens sports and womens sports. It is a great story. I am not up to speed except to say it is enhanced, this year. You wonder what the dollar will be in five years. Economics of the foreignexchange. Of l meyer is the head Foreign Exchange policy. Darrell it has been helpful for us because it has been part of our story of being more bearish on the dollar. Steve has given us a bit of a lead which has played out pretty well. Tom where are you on the euro . I believe deutsche bank. 120ell we have had eurodollar for many months. Tom that is alone call. Darrell it is nice to be the gazelle on the edge of the pack. You know you will get noticed but we felt we had the right view. Tom this is such a global show. Who would come up with giselle on the edge of the pack . Francine what is the gazelles view . Do we have donald trump in the presidency, do we have brexit . And currencies, it is this wonderful cocktail. Principal elements are we expect a relatively dovish week. We felt that they would be withrained constrained additional euro weakness. Both of those things come together to try that reappraisal. F the dollar we realize that and we hope the market has. Think it is the end of the dollar rally given what we have heard cherry hill and and what kind of thoughts are you expecting from the minutes by the fed unveiled, today . Daragh we called the dollar rally around cointreau months ago and we argued upset through that period as well. December where there was for people saying we only needed to hike twice. Now we have 10 of the fomc telling us that. This is despite yellen telling us her view of the economy has not changed, that much. Overall, exports to be kind, are flat. See. An unusual thing to compensating, the newtonian mechanics of foreignexchange fall into the fact that trade is down, dramatically . It feels they are a more trade reliant currency. We talked much more about currencies and surpluses only go into the market. It has been a long time since we worry about the u. S. Trade deficit. Francine showing dollar Malaysian Ringgit in her what does it mean . Daragh one of the big problems is people want to this idea of china fears have receded and fed fears have preceded. E. M. Relieswth and on that whole trade mechanics as you described it to get reinvigorated and that is not happening. Everything we had. Welcome back to [indiscernible] it feels like we have kind of a ceasefire for now, so i think some of the volatility should proceed and the china fear factor has gone into a retreat, so i would say that contributes to volatility. You do have patches of referendum and volatility, but the idea that we are in this broad trauma in general, that i think is a story that is so much no longer so much in play. You are saying that emerging markets and fx is facing a and it isour use wire telling me watch out for defaults in emerging markets. Back in limastory will recover the imf and it kind of petered out. Do we need to worry more about the fault in emerging markets . Daragh this story comes around every so often. Andheard many months back we have all heard the story. What happens is, the fashion seems to phase in, come back, and for the moment it is. I remember one of the big scare stories about leverage and the dollar exposure but we had a softer dollar over the last few weeks and that is going to be helpful, but we dont talk about these windfall gains for emerging markets by virtue of this dollar weakness. Maybe an asymmetry in the coverage in terms of the market. At the end of the day, the key drivers will still be fed fear factor, china fear factor and also whether weve got growth in a global environment. They will be the three elements, much more critical for e. M. Francine thank you so much. We might be talking about another haven, next. Coming up, conversation with the Swiss NationalBank President. Theyre looking at negative rates and what that means for mortgages. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance, a jumble of ideas. We had not talked in ages about glencore. Francine we used to talk on a daily basis. Share prices were down significantly. We knew they had debt problems and had to get rid of it. Today, they announced they were selling a stake in its agricultural unit for 2. 5 million. For more on this, we are joined by our chief energy correspondent. They had to do something, they had to restructure. The share deal and price is down, is it a money problem or were the markets expecting more for the selloff or did they want a bigger chunk of this asset . Thats going to help them a lot, to review the big pile of debt. The market reacted poorly is because people suspected there would be more in terms of valuation. The valuation is at the bottom of expectations. Weis a bit lower than what were expecting, probably why the market is taking it that way. Between 20 and 30 , they could smell asthma sell as much as 49 . Got this bighey check of 2. 5 billion. Francine are they selling other assets . They have been selling all of their assets, but this was the big deal that the market was expecting. They also had equity at the end of last year. The share price has also come back from the lows that we saw, last year. A timid reaction from the market is reflecting in the share prices have recovered, significantly. Fromwas down 86 of 2011 and it has rebounded nicely, but is it all clear for glencore and the other Companies Like them . Its not and you are right because they still have two problems, one is the price of coal. Very low demand in china is a big problem for glencore. The other problem and this is , copper prices are not recovering and francine had his interview yesterday with the head of the imf or he presented a negative view of the global economy. You are bearish about the global economy, you are bearish about Commodity Prices and you cannot be interested or bullish about glencore. Tom diddy have enough cash on hand . Computer by aple big margin. They have enough cash to whether the next fewr years. They are very exposed to cold and copper and those commodities are not recovering, yet. Call is a big problem. With Climate Change negotiations, with china slowdowns and every country trying to move away into more clean power, that is a big problem and glencore made a big bet on coal. Coal priceses do not recover up, really looking hisard to this, dipping toes into republican politics years ago, but david bell has on new, mediocre. Francine im in london and tom keene is in new york, but first the business flash with vonnie quinn. Techgermany Companies TakingMinority Stakes in the share digital mapping service. Bensudi and were cities bought here from nokia last year. German automobile production fell with upsets in domestic demand. In norway, lawmakers are putting pressures only rose largest sovereign tax fun to quit using tax havens. One lawmaker says the Norwegian Fund h