, john browne. An what a morning we are having in new york. ,he real story of the morning 9 30 a. M. Mike youve got to call it the we told you so trade. Tom keene said that you and i had to keep things calm while he was gone today. [laughter] missingis going to be the fun because that is not going to be happening. Speed. Et everybody up to lets get the first word news. Donald trump said no one knows the system better than he does and that is why he is the only one who can fix it. Last night, he asked that did accepted the republican president ial nomination. Mr. Trump we must work with all of our allies who share our goal of destroying isis and stamping out islamic terrorism and doing it now, doing it quickly. We are going to win, we are going to win fast. He also blasted his opponent. New data shows the british economy has been hammered by the vote to leave the european union. A purchasing Managers Index fell below 50, the number that divides expansion and contraction. President erdogan in turkey is already signaling that the state of emergency may not be long enough. Thatys News Agency Says more than 10,000 people have been arrested in the wake of that failed coup. Athletes staying away from the summer olympics over concerns about the zika virus are being asked to reconsider. To athletes risk contracting the zika virus is basically zero. The Obama Administration will invest in creating nationwide stationsof charging for electric cars. This is bloomberg. Mike here is where we are setting up today for the last day of trading this week. We are seeing some green on the screen. S p futures up by 0. 2 . Oil off just a little bit today. Oing on to the next board we are looking at the fix vix trading lower. The yen gets a little bit stronger today. Overall, a weakening trend for the week. Brentoil is matching its counterpart. Guy you say there is nothing going on, but that is not how it feels over here. Take a look at the cable rate, up by 0. 3 . Look at the stoxx 600. 50. K at the ftse 2 ftse is actually trending in a different direction. Mike i want to show you something that illustrates what we have been talking about all week. The focus has been on the euro and the ecb did nothing yesterday. The bank of japan what is next . How much can they do . That is the issue in japan. I put together the balance major banks. Three the white line is japan. The orange line is the ecb, the fed is right in the middle. You can see how much the bank of japan has done, in terms of the percentage of appreciation on its Balance Sheet. The question is can they afford to do more . Guy you wonder whether mark carney has room to move, as well. Let me quickly show you my bloomberg. Since thet decline financial crisis. If you were to take the Services Number back all the way, you would never, ever see a decline in the service number. That is what we are seeing this time around. Brexit blues is what we are seeing this time around. Chief atfrom the imf the 2016 China Development forum. I was hoping to come today to, for the first time in six thes, revise upwards. Orecast for growth i would have done that because china, japan, the euro area were doing better than what we had expected. , the unitednately kingdom decided to go for brexit. So, we had to revise downward. Guy blame the brits. Mark carney says that the Global Economy is actually quite resilient. He was at the same event. This year, the Global Financial system has faced two spikes of uncertainty and periods that have demonstrated its resilience. Citigroups european economist is with us. The u. K. Economy is suffering. Is this in line with what you saw happening . Yes. We expected a pretty big impact of uncertainty. It has been a roller coaster this week. Pmis for the eurozone were quite strong. It puts everything into perspective. This is a major risk for the u. K. , the european, and the Global Economy. Have any mark carney choice but to go big . Christian this is one data point. It is soft data. The mere divergence between what is happening in the u. K. In the eurozone is something we need to look deeper into. I think the bank of england will look into it. Clearly, the worst economic data. The preventive response from the bank of england is still going to be to forecast a rate cut at the end of the august meeting. Mike it is not a surprise we saw the pmis go down. The sentiment is pretty bad. When do we start to see hard data . Is there sort of a j curve effect going on here, where we will see more and more bad data or do we get it all at once . Christian the Financial Market response to start with was sharp in the beginning and then things recovered pretty quickly. That was a sign that uncertainty was high in the beginning. Perhaps because of the new uk Prime Minister or the words from quite asone were not bad, the uncertainty was receiving. Receding. The European Central banks came to the rescue. So, i think, the shortterm impact was always bound to be quite strong. The pmis show that. I would expect some stabilization Going Forward. Mike Christian Schulz is with citigroup. Coming up in the next hour, we will speak with Morgan Stanleys industry of strategy. Guy im guy johnson in london. Mike mckee is in new york. Tom and francine are off today. Taylor factory output in germany has hit a 27month high. The record low unemployment in germany is bolstering the economy. If the u. K. Economy slumps, that could be a problem. Vodafone reported firstquarter Service Revenue that the estimates. Vodafone is trying to revive its european business. Pokemon go has come home. It has been all the rage in the u. K. , australia, and parts of europe. It is now available in japan. It has added as much as 20 billion to nintendos market value in two weeks. Mike thank you very much. Donald trump, officially the republican president ial candidate. ,n his acceptance speech painting a picture of america as a nation of under siege nation under siege. Lived eisenberg joins us from the convention. Was old donald trump. It was everything we have heard from him the last 100 days. How did it go over with people . Think people were surprised that it was more of a greatest hits speech than any pivot to a general election. We did not hear anything new. It was a long speech. That said, he succeeded as he has all week, in unifying some of the Republican Party faithful behind him. This was a tryout for the American People, but also for to engage witht donald trump. Is he going to start getting competitive in terms of money raised . Ever gete will n competitive in terms of total money raised. This still seems like faint praise, but he managed to deliver speech from a text last night. It was not necessarily a great delivery, but there was a sign of some discipline that we have not seen. Withople want to come away encouragement that he cant take orders from political professionals, there might be some encouragement here. Guy how about running those running for seats in the house and senate . Are they using trump . Are they running away from trouble . Trump . Fewer this convention had elected officials than anyone i have ever been to. Very few senators. Very who did come, came quickly to raise money. I think today, we will start to hear members not happy that donald trump was going back to his messaging on immigration, on refugees. It is not the type of message they want to take to a general election electorate. Guy i saw some great excuses. Im mowing the lawn. Im going flyfishing. Spectacular excuses to not be there. Hillary the rnc affect and how she picks her vp candidate . Pence give a speech on wednesday that was totally confident, not particularly memorable. Guess is that that reaffirms to the Clinton Campaign that this is not going to be a campaign in which the Vice President ial nominees are major characters and will probably be inclined to go with somebody safe. I dont think she will be looking to make a splash year. Splash here. Mike traditionally, the opposition candidate disappears well the other party is having their convention. But what is donald trump going to do next . Sasha we dont know his particular schedule. Beguess is that he will not able to stay away. He even interrupted one night of his own convention. He will probably be a big character over the next week. Guy great stuff. Thank you for the reporting. Is still withz us. As the u. S. Economy woken up with respect to november . Christian i think the elections dont really play much of a role. It could affect timing at the fed. I dont think anybodys base case is that trump would win the election. We certainly believe the base case is that Hillary Clinton is going to win. Guy everybody said that about the brexit, too. Christian the u. S. Economy seems to be picking up if anything, at the moment. Mike does that suggest the markets would see a Hillary Clinton ministration as representing a status quo . Nothing to change your investment calculation . Christian that depends on the concrete policy proposals we will see over the next months or so. In general, given the alternative, which would be seend trump, she should be as the safer pair of hands, the safer alternative, and the more marketfriendly one at this stage. Mike thank you very much. It is an event you cant turn away from, sort of look a car crash or a train wreck. The american political campaign. Follow all of it on with all due respect. In newm Michael Mckee york along with guy johnson in london. Tom and francine are off today. Roger ailes is out as head of Fox News Channel following Sexual Harassment accusations, which he denied. He will be succeeded temporarily murdoch. Ss rupert what does this mean for fox . The important thing for wall street are not the charges and the countercharges, but the fact that fox news is a cash cow for 21st century fox. Is this going to affect the stock price . It should not have a huge effect. There are understandable reasons for investors to be concerned. I would argue that the charges are something that affected wall street and they do need to be mindful of it. There are bigger bigger it choose picture issues. Investors do not like to hear about this things these things. The issue under the old regime is that there is not a perfect command and control from the top of the box company 21st Century Fox Company into fox news. There was an inch you issue that was negative despite this being a quarter of the cash flow of the company. Most investors have been focused on it, but how do you make sure that the cash cow that is fox news continues to grow . Certainly, there is reason to be mindful, but it is also the case that it is unlikely that there is a meaningful negative impact, especially with putting Rupert Murdoch in for the time being. Mike there have been reports that a number of fox personalities have clauses in their contracts enabling them to walk away of roger ailes left. Yourut materially change outlook . If there arenot as money many problems that cannot solve. Also, they are not going to go across the street to msnbc. Im sure it is possible to find a venture that works independently, but none of them will have a meaningful impact on fox. Guy can i make a meaningful comparison to what happened to Rebekah Brooks . She was brought back into the fold and a very quickly. Brian fox news is going to be different than most major media organizations. I understand that fleet street is a beast of its own, but the scale of fox news fox news by itself carries more revenue than the entire british newspaper industry. It is the creation of really one person, with Rupert Murdoch, of course. That to a is maybe higher degree, in terms of how influential roger ailes has been. I think they have been built enough of an audience, so that with the right people in charge, they can mediate any consequences. Guy we will leave it there. Thank you for taking time to talk with us on the phone. Is going to stay with us. We will also talk about what has been happening with the u. K. Data. How did the relationship go with the french yesterday . This is bloomberg. A in newm Michael Mckee york. Guy johnson is in london. Lets get to the first word news. The convention is over, but the memories linger. Taylor it is. Donald trump is painting a dark picture of a fading nation that only he can save. Trump warned of a country beset by crime, terrorism, and bad trade deals. He said he is the only one who can fix the problem. Mr. Trump to every parent who dreams of their child and every child who dreams for their future, i say, these words to you, iight i am with will fight for you, and i will win for you. Taylor he used some of his harshest rhetoric on his opponent. He said Hillary Clintons legacy with us was death, destruction, and weakness. Hillary clinton will try to recapture voters attention after the weekend. She is poised to unveil a running mate as soon as today. She said the announcement will be made by a text message to her supporters. A french Prosecutor Says the man who carried out the truck terrorist attack in nice did not do it on his own. He planned for several months helped by five people. A house of lords panel urges british lawmakers to examine all aspects of the u. K. Withdrawal from the european union. They said parliament should scrutinize discussions and negotiations on a new relationship. A law has been filed to force theresa may to consult parliament before global talks. Riggserg news, im taylor. This is bloomberg. Guy lets carry on the conversation. Choice ofces a accepting Unlimited Administration or losing access to the single market. We are joined now by jonathan fenby. Also joining us is christian shulz. Nathan fenby, the author of the history of modern france, which is why he is sitting with us. Out of the french want this conversation . What did you make of the meeting . Hardlinehollandes was entirely expected. He wants to things. He wants to shore up his domestic political position ahead of next year. French want and the to use this crisis over brexit to reestablish france as the political coequal in europe. They have seen themselves slipping behind germany in recent years. There is an acceptance that the brits cannot trigger this instantly. I guess he is on a timetable, though, to make life very difficult. The may elections are coming up. How late is too late for him when it comes to this . Jonathan it is already too late for him. Goingld like to get this for france to take a stronger by thehip position beginning of next year. That is probably too quick. Mike countries dont have. Riends, they have interests how much weight is france going to be able to carry into negotiations if others feel it is within their best interest to maintain a stronger trading relationship with the u. K. . In a weakhollande is position. He is a weak leader and his opinion polls are low. French economy, having had a little upturn in the First Quarter of this year, gdp growth is down again, 0. 2 in the Second Quarter, and france is in quite a lot of trouble. It is former difficult for him to assert this leadership role. He has to do that for his domestic, political purposes. Mike does the French Economy have any particular hope about it at this point . The numbers were not too bad today, but france has been struggling along without a lot of growth. Christian the French Economy is actually not doing too badly. It is clearly underperforming. Some of the reforms are kicking in. We have a labor market reform almost done. There is some sign of progress. It is very domestic oriented, dependent on domestic demand. Tois far less vulnerable swings elsewhere than the German Economy is. Guy it is going to be interesting to see how the u. K. Economy and the pain that it may feel translates into a negotiating position. I was talking earlier on to the ceo of heathrow. This was an interesting conversation. It hit a number of areas. I asked him about brexit. What is too early to say the impact of leaving the eu will be. We have not seen an impact on the number of people choosing to use heathrow and we will have to wait 35 months to see any impact. Even during the recession in 2008, we did not see a significant reduction. That is because there is so much demand to fly through heathrow. We are more a Global Economy than just the u. K. Economy. Guy i guess there probably is sort of a pound factor in all of this. Probably making it more desirable to fly into heathrow. When we think about the negotiating position, we have seen huge fiscal turmoil. Economy is. K. Weakening, according to the new data. If you are french or german sitting there and the concern you have is that your domestic race will see the brits base will see the brits succeeding that is exactly what we are not getting at this point. Are the brits succeeding enough . Jonathan probably not yet. The other element in france is to recognize that Marine Le Pen will probably finish top in the first round of the president ial election she has welcomed brexit and has said that is the kind of model for where france should go. From the mainstream, politicians is aaying that britain strong electoral card. Mike this the u. K. Have any potential friends in these elections . Im thinking about the Eastern European economies. May they be more sympathetic and give some negotiating room to theresa may . Jonathan except that if you look at eastern europe, poland, romania, and other countries want to keep free migration into britain. For their domestic political constituencies, they will have to stick to that. It is difficult to see where the continentends on the are.