Take stock of what jackson hole will bring with janet yellen. Tom weve been doing this all week. Equities weaker yesterday. Not a shock, but just off the boredom, a very difficult afternoon for markets in the u. S. Janet yellen front and center. 10 00 a. M. Tomorrow, francine, eastern time. You wont hear her speak. It is in a closed room. Embargoedgets an speech and we will have all the headlines out at 10 00 a. M. Exactly. Francine that is what the markets are watching. Today we look at geopolitics with the deal in columbia between the government and the guerillas. Lets get to the bloomberg first word news. The death toll is rising in italy. The government says at least 257 people were killed when the quake rocked central italy. Three mountain towns were leveled. Rescue crews are trying to find survivors. Many of the buildings were built centuries ago. In kabul, Authorities Say at least 12 people were killed in an attack on the American University of afghanistan. The assault began with a suicide car bomb. Two attackers then opened fire. The siege lasted nine hours. No one has claimed responsibility but the talent and is expected. Turkeys incursion into syria may be a game changer in that countrys civil war. It is seen as a sign that turkey has shifted away from its steppedce that assad down. It wants to stop the advance of kurdish rebels in the region. Colombia has reached an agreement with marxist rebels in a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people. The rebels will convert into a legal Political Party that will be guaranteed seats in both houses of Colombian Congress for a time. Voters will approve or reject a deal on october 2. Donald trump is welcoming the support of a backer who cant even vote. The former head of the Uk Independence Party, nigel farage, joined trump on stage. Onage said trump is right immigration and he wouldnt vote for Hillary Clinton. Global news 24 hours a day. Im taylor raikes. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Taylor my head is spinning because of that mr. Farage with mr. Trump. Printing, would you help us . What is the significance . Francine my head is spinning. When we were in brexit, barack obama shows up to london, nigel farage says, how dare a foreigner come to our country and tell us how we should vote . Showsight weeks later, he up in the u. S. And tells you how you should vote. Tom and the British Press goes mental. Mr. Farage is without a mustache. Is it august or what . What is the significance of his mustache . Francine not much. He just surprised everyone. Does that appeal more to u. S. Voters . Tom i dont know. Mr. Marty schenker will join us. With his Patient Perspective on the oddities of washington. Lets switch to data. It was boring until yesterday afternoon. We continue what we saw yesterday. Futures, dont want to overplay this, but a little excitement. Oil south of 47. Vix, 13. 78. The the dow, im really struggling at this, francine. The yen has done nothing. Francine the yen has done nothing, but because we had mark mobius saying they may do helicopter money in september, i also put it on my board. I have dollaryen at 137. I want to show you the asiapacific. I couldnt chart it. I want to show you the volumes, down 30 . Lets go back home and go to sleep. Tom it is a good time to think longer. Weve been thinking about the imf meetings coming up in october. Lets wander to the bloomberg right now. This is the state of american confidence as shary elven greets those assembled in wyoming. The yellow line is the average of the Bloomberg Consumer comfort index. I love the simple. The Bloomberg Consumer comfort index, the highfrequency weekly index. The gloom is the red line. There we are with the average. The diffusion is the 50 mark. Janet yellen would probably like that to be a little higher. But it is a good recovery. Not a great recovery, but a good recovery in american confidence. Francine we will take it. This is what i wanted to show you. I basically did the spread between the twoyear note and the 30year treasury notes. The 30year treasury notes are the cheapest relative to bonds into the start of 2008. The yield on the shorterterm maturity is more sensitive to the outlook from monetary policy. I decided to do that instead of expectations or odds of a fan move which is now 54 for the year. For more on all this, the perspective for the u. S. Economy, for more on jackson hole, we are joined by andrew sheets. Great to have you on the program. Quiet august, but all of that could change. The markets could be taken on a back foot depending on what janet yellen communicates tomorrow. Andrew good point. We had this big shock with brexit, then the response was to cause markets to go back into a lukll. As you look into autumn, you have a lot that is coming up. The market is pricing a more than 50 chance that they do hike. You have questions over chinas continued slowdown. Theres a number of things we could see that would realistically drive higher volatility. Francine a lot of people are saying the fed is missed communicating where they are not clear enough. Is the fed just becoming more like the mpc with the bank of england where we value difference of opinions . Andrew the fed has a really hard job. I feel uncomfortable criticizing them. If we think about what they are trying to achieve, they as your chart shows have successfully lowered term premiums and risk premiums further out, which i think in their view was the right response to this uncertain economic environment. Theyve been dealing with extremely choppy economic data. I think theres criticism that they should be looking through that. Theyve been dealing with a strong dollar, one of the strongest runs of Dollar Strength in the last 40 years. So far, the fed has allowed or certainly helped stocks go within a couple percent of all time highs in the u. S. I think it is hard to criticize. Tom andrew, Morgan Stanley has been way out front with the cautious view. Bankic from deutsche joined us yesterday and talked about the switch to financial instability. Where were are we on the sheets instability meter . Andrew it is interesting. I think a number of those measures of stability look really calm. Financial conditions are extremely easy. Credit spreads have come in, both realized and implied low, so i are very think you have a lot of stable factors. From an investor perspective, generally speaking, when financial conditions are easy, that has been a better time to sell risk than to buy it. When conditions are tight, risk premiums are high, fear is high, there are more opportunities. There are a lot of signs that Central Banks have successfully eased a lot of the uncertainty that came about after brexit. Does that mean it is a great investment environment with lots of good risk premiums . That looks much harder to say. Tom do you go into janet do you really see jump conditions at 10 01 tomorrow . Are we going to walk off to the weekend bored . I dont think were expecting major fireworks. I think theres a good chance the fed will acknowledge that conditions are better. I think the data in the markets suggests that. I think the market should certainly be looking for any signs that the fed talks about renewed credit markets or leverage markets. At the moment, i think it is more about guiding the market to keep a hike into 2016 in play. We dont think that happens ultimately, but i think that will be the main key. We dont expect major volatility tomorrow. Francine thank you so much, andrew sheets. Stay with bloomberg for special fed coverage tomorrow. We bring you interviews with fed officials. Live from jackson hole economic symposium. All that tomorrow beginning at 8 00 a. M. In new york. This is bloomberg. Francine it is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash. Lawmakers sayh Internet Companies have failed when it comes to blocking extremism. Parliament urges the companies to employ more people to police content. The Committee Says british Law Enforcement agencies should have extra resources to block dangerous posts and users. July was the biggest month for Hedge Fund Redemptions in more than seven years. Investors withdrew more than 25 billion from hedge funds last month. Investors have been critical of hedge funds for their fees, plus performance has been lackluster. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you so much. U. S. Vice President Joe Biden said a visit to turkey was called a waste of time. Animosity grew before the failed cool off month. The countrys prime minister, we asked what the future holds for relations with the west. Tom the u. S. The u. S. Has strongly supported full eu membership of turkey and defended us against eu Member States. Some eu Member States have slightly shifted their attitudes toward turkey after the failed coup attempt and started to make different statements. Finally they realized the truth. Today they see it better. Francine joining us now is Richard Whitman, the Chatham House senior fellow of the european program. Andrew sheets from Morgan Stanley. Richard, when you look at how joe biden was received, it seemed extremely uncomfortable in the press conference. He was also greeted by lowlevel officials at the airport. Do we care about things like that . Richard they are important and they are intended to send a signal. I think it really was a bit of humiliation in terms of the meet and greet at the airport. It also shows you how angry turkey still is in terms of the and the u. S. Response to the coup, but the u. S. And turkey need to Work Together on syria. It is a difficult relationship. Francine richard, there are so many layers on this. The u. S. Did work on some of the airstrikes on syria yesterday. But the u. S. Should be or could be very different in their approach. Can they also turn a blind eye to the purges being carried out by president erdogan . January, we focused a lot on turkish democracy, human rights, and so on. Clearly the u. S. Is putting the issue of stability of the relationship insecurity terms right at the top. European union is a bit wobbly. What the European Union has done his focus more in this disconnected way with this government expressing different views about the political situation. Still playing into the idea that the relationship is important, particularly on migration issues. Tom i dont know where the air force base is on the map. I just discovered it is northeast of cyprus, tucked into the Little Corner of the mediterranean by syria and turkey. That airbase goes back to 1955. His Vice President biden talking about a u. S. Relationship back that far or are we talking about the new new . Richard i think we are talking about both. The longstanding relationship has been a very important relationship for the u. S. And for other europeans. Turkey has major scale armed forces with significant capabilities. To lose them from the western lines would be a major blow. I think what were seeing on the u. S. Side is a recalibration and a bit of catch up. Tom i like the idea of recalibration. How sacred r the borders of turkey and northern iraq, Northern Syria . Are those borders locked into place according to Chatham House or are there going to be new borders . Richard the border situation is a fascinating one. Weve got a contest in terms of who should exercise power where. The kurds are the challengers of the existing borders and one of the most Capable Military formations on the ground. Is border question constantly being tested. Where it will be really test it is once we look at some kind of settlement on syria. Francine andrew, when you look at places like turkey where politics is 90 or 80 of the story, what doesnt mean for investors . Andrew it is a reminder that the emerging market story remains idiosyncratic. Issues are very different around emerging markets. It is easy at times to generalize that it is an easy fed environment that has to be good or bad for all e. M. They can become located by the political situation on the ground. This is one of many examples. Tom no doubt a story to continue. Get out a map and look at turkey sometimes. We are all ignorant of it. We think it ends in easterns or Something Like that. Coming up, equity markets and the linkage to jackson hole. Howard ward, we will speak to mr. Ward about his love for tim clark and apple. This is bloomberg. Francine it is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, lets go to south africa. The finance minister says he wont obey a police order to present himself for questioning. He was summoned in allegations over the special investigative unit. He has denied any wrongdoing. Lets get more with our south africa reporter. We are getting some headlines from the president saying hes expressing his full confidence in the finance minister and he does not have the power to stop the investigations. These investigations need to go forward, dont they . Analysts have said that if the police unit has a case and has enough evidence to put charges to the finance minister and other officials that are implicated in the probe, then they should do that and let the courts take their course. That is what president jacob zuma has said this morning just a few minutes ago, saying that he cant intervene and he has full confidence in the finance minister. Francine how is it being played out in the street . If the finance minister says, i will not be questioned, does it automatically mean the population turns against him . What weve seen is that business came out really in support of the finance minister, stating that he holds a critical position in the economy that is already struggling. The south African Reserve bank said it anticipates zero growth for this year. A man who is very important for the benefit of this economy, a man who spearheaded the a campaign to stave off a potential Credit Rating downgrade. Analysts are saying that it does seem difficult not to enter this interpret this as political interference, but it seems the finance minister has a lot of backing. Tom this may have gotten lost in translation. I want to try. Is this a spot or is this going to bring the downfall of the government . Analysts are saying that it does seem to be a bit of a spat between the president and finance minister. Earlier this week, confident announced that president jacob zuma will be chairing a committee that will oversee state owned entities. Analysts are saying that there may be a spat in terms of who can control what. The economy of this country is the biggest thing at stake. O, thank you so much for the update. That is also having a huge impact on bonds and the rand. Andrew sheets and Richard Whitman stay with us. The dollar rallies today, definitely running out of steam. Generally, theres not a lot of volume. Generally, Financial Markets have been very quiet. It is all to do with tomorrows speech by the Federal Reserve chair, janet yellen. That may or may not shed light on the timing of u. S. Rate increases. This is bloomberg. It is a beautiful new york. The weather has been absolutely late summer spectacular. The leaves beginning to just 18 just change across central park. It is the gorgeousity of new york. If the baseball teams would do better, that would be great. Im tom keene in new york. A lot this hour on International Relations area relations. First, on italy, and update, taylor riggs. Taylor it is now a battle against time. Rescue crews are digging through rubble, looking for survivors from that earthquake. At least 247 were killed. The quake flattened three towns. Many buildings were built centuries ago and hadnt been reinforced. A newspaper in turkey called vice President Joe Bidens trip there a waste of time. Biden hoped to smooth relations. Instead, his visit showcased acrimony with president erdogan. North korea says u. S. Mainland is now within range of its missiles. Uns regime says the test proves the viability of north korean technology. In brazil, the Senate Begins a historic impeachment trial today. The president is accused of illegally financing government spending. She will take the stand next monday but shes not expected to have enough votes to save her job. State legislature in california has made the nations toughest Carbon Emissions rules even tougher, to cut 45 less than current levels. Businesses have until 2030 to comply. Industries called the new rules job killers. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists. Im taylor riggs. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. Nigel farage appeared at a rally with republican president ial nominee donald trump in jackson, mississippi. Mr. Farage spoke about britains decision to leave the eu. He urged Trump Supporters to get out and vote against the establishment. Heres what trump had to say in response. The issues we face in america are similar to the issues faced in britain during their referendum on membership in the European Union. Francine with us is Richard Whitman, senior fellow of the Europe Program at Chatham House, and andrew sheets, strategist at Morgan Stanley. Richard, im so confused on so many levels. First of all, what they have in common, trump and brexit, is pr