I really agree with predict wise. You got to aggregate them together. The tendency is clearly toward the bloomberg told with mr. Trump a little bit ahead but error. Got standard of i make a lot of errors. That is your standard. Ryan it is. You are right francine it is right. Lets get to the bloomberg first word news with taylor riggs. Taylor Hillary Clinton and donald trump square off tonight in the first of the president ial debates. The new poll shows of them locked in a tied to a race. The poll has the two candidates each with 46 . When thirdparty candidates are included, trump leads clinton 43 to 41 . They are predictions that tonights debate could be the most watched debate ever. You can watch it here on bloomberg tv. Our coverage begins at 8 30 p. M. Eastern. At the United Nations security council, the west slammed russia over the syrian city of aleppo. France and the u. K. Are calling the bombing a war crime good more Human Rights Group says more than 200 civilians have been killed in the last week. Russia has denied responsibility. Aleppo is the center of opposition. There was tension in the skies over the east china sea. China sent 40 aircraft on what he called a returning a routine drill. Japan responded by scrambling its own warplanes. Japan says it is the first time it has seen chinese fighters in the region. Japan and china claimed the islands are their own territory. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am taylor riggs, this is bloomberg. Tom we are going to be distracted by the debate through all of surveillance and lets make clear, the markets are on the move in fragile and fragile. I want this been time on i want to spend time on francine to data check. Dollar all over the place. Yields coming in. Oil not a part of the picture. On the next screen, please. The vicks, 13. 95 showing the tension good curve flattening with stronger yen. You see it with weaker mexican peso. Francine, front and center, there is no other story this morning. It is about the collapse of Deutsche Bank. Francine i dont know of we can call it collapsed yet. The share prices under significant pressure. We talk about the fact that banks are having a tough time. Confidence rising to the highest level since 2014. I want to show yen because we had government wrote a talking about it. I want to show you turkish lira, it is a slump. It is leading losses among emergingmarket currencies after moodys cut the nations that rate european stocks downward rate. Your been stocks downward. Tom by collapse im looking over a nineday intraday chart here the idea of Deutsche Bank, 13 to a 10 handle against 10 handle gets your attention. I agree with taylor, it will be the most watched ever. The buzz on this debate is off the charts in america. The red lines are the recessions. Half a century of president ial real gdp. 1. 9 our moving average statistic, that is white standards is doing so well. That is why mr. Trump is doing well. Morning in america, those green rectangles with terrific 1960s gdp, terrific late 1990s gdp and down below you got the eight years of george bush and 24year obama terms two fouryear obama terms. Therefore your moving average. It is nothing near francine morning in america. Francine i like the chart. Itas looking at treasury and this is a chart that tracks from central Bank Treasuries held in custody of the fed. It is a simple line chart, but what i wanted to show you is there used to be one of the most reliable sources of demand for government debt, but these days, they have become another worry. Im talking about japan in trying to and china. Currencies,time on what is going on in u. S. Politics and treasuries. , undress under his regimen. Undressthe german andreas is not the case for these to be and it is next line francine eight years on, it is like your set out to do working. Do you change your tact or mandate. Do you abandon that mandate . Why will it work this time . Andreas there is no guarantee and chances are it may not work. Longer than three or four years. He said this is not a question of this is a question of generation. Central banks are costly changing their tactics. Whatever was a policy five years ago was in three is ago. Remember all the gains it . None of that that experiment, they dont know how to resolve this issue. Francine where do you find value . Andreas yet to find risk premium. To be you have to find risk premium. It could be duration. Youve got to take some measure risks. Sovereign bonds, spread risks as it increases, you can take some position. Equities, we expect a 4 return for the next two years. Better than zero. Tom good morning. Youre out of lse which i consider one of the epistemology in theory. Is there a theory in europe and economics now . Are they making it up day by day as they go . Think it is not day by day, but clearly there is a big class of philosophy at the center of the eurozone. It got some of the Northern European countries, germany, who believe in fiscal orthodoxy. That you needry to live within your means. Theres the rest of europe i guess you can include the u. K. Who believe only way out of this growth gluts fiscal expansion. That is a big issue. They are needed to make things up as they go along because theres this philosophical disagreement. Tom i give you the highest marks for leading your Research Report with the phrase financial repression. Very few want to talk about right now. Does allianz just refuse pressure . Andreas that is been our assumption for a number of years. We continue to be a basket case. Central banks will willingly be behind the curve as a way if you look the 50s and 60s, as a i wetop the real are going to increase Interest Rates slowly than inflation picks up. That is the theory. Tom i cannot convey, francine, enough at the heart of the banks. Which is this they can get out front versus which what we heard. That is where you get into the drama of last week, evidence. I was amazed how people were still talking this weekend about the yellen press conference. I cannot convey enough the profound impact. Francine amazed but at the end of the day, she is the only game in town. Everything trades off. All roads lead to rome, you can see all roads lead to yellen. It is not the surprising that people would hang onto every single word she says. Mario draghi will be in brussels and berlin this week. And even more urgent message than usual. Act toe government must bolster the economy. We want to ask him a more about deutsche and the impacts on banks. Stay with bloomberg throughout the week on wednesday, join us for Global Coverage from the Bloomberg Markets most influential summit. Well be talking to the biggest names in the Financial Markets including tidjane thiam. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene is in new york. As get to Corporate News and the Bloomberg Business flash. Taylor, saudi arabia may open the door to future opec deal on Oil Production limits. The saudis have offered to pump less crude if iran puts output at current levels. That is going to people that is according to people familiar. Hsbc has hired increment firm to find and for future Top Executive positions according to the financial times. The firm will look for candidates to fill those jobs. The brexit boat has three quarters of british ceos thinking about moving their headquarters outside of the u. K. The firm surveyed 100 business leaders. 76 are considering relocation. Believe business will be disrupted after the u. K. Leaves the union. Tom it is extraordinary for those of you to focus on tonights debate. To be clear, is the first debate of many debates. Everyonewould suggest wants to avoid what i avoid doing in obama, the heart of the matter is the skeleton of the closet was obamas first debate asked number of years ago. Does the president messed up so much in the first debate . Megan the thing he did was he was expected to have this rhetorical style to on the debate. That is going to be some of the pressure with Hillary Clinton tonight. The expectations for her a very different than for donald trump. His bar is low. If he comes across as having firm policies, he is going to clear that hurdle. For her, the bar is higher. Two slant from the point what items are who is going to be at the debate . Is mr. Cuban going to be there . Gives an update. Megan ms. Flowers will be there. She is likely to be in the spin rome. She did walk back over the weekend. They did invite her to appear tonight which would be unsettling. We dont know what to expect tonight. We dont know if he is want to stay on message and we dont know if she is going to be tried to will out a more authentic self. Whether she is going to try and be more humorous or whether she is going to go to the jugular. Be everything to play for tonight. Francine how important is this . We have a posting trump and clinton are deadlocked. It is all about the battleground states, right . If you look at the picture as a whole, what are the real chances of either candidate winning . Megan there are two data points. What is really interesting about this poll is Hillary Clinton losing some strength among young. Oters and women voters the first we have seen in battleground states such as ohio ,s the youth vote drifting perhaps toward gary johnson, these thirdparty candidates. Women is going to be a lot more problematic for her. If they see the trend pick up among republican women, women who have been decidedly with him. That is not good news for. Good news for her. Francine this debate is most watched moreto be than the super bowl . The afterthought is that basically he has a natural advantage. Megan we have no idea what the viewing figures are going to be. We needed we expect the near super bowl viewing. It is a spectacle. Googler tuning in to see what kind of match this would be. People are tuning in to see what kind of match this would be. Tom we forget there are multiple debates. The media plays it like this is the single moment. What is the play of being assertive and to do versus do no harm you go the idea of i dont want to screw up do no harm . The idea of i dont want to screw up. Megan his strategy is i dont to screw up in this debate. Her expectations are higher. She is going to have to have some sort of dominating performance. Tom francine, i cannot convey the humor within the drama of all of this. Crooked lester, lester holt. Francine i like that, humor within the drummer. Humor within the drama. I think it goes beyond the stock performance. It is a highly thats what we have seen with brexit and what we are seeing today and in the runup to the u. S. Election is very worrying in terms of the politics and what society and where society is going. We have seen in brexit, the debate about immigration gave license to very nasty hate crimes in the u. K. Again, i think the political discourse in the u. S. Has been debased. What concerns me, i am listening to your program and im listening to people talk about Gennifer Flowers and people and Hillary Clinton being under pressure to perform. What were seeing here is an unconscious bias against women. It is classic. If women can be successful, not only trusted and all of that, there need to be much more qualified than the male counterpart and even then, they may not get the top job. This is what we are seeing. There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is more qualified, but that does not count. She news to do more she needs to do more. I find that extraordinary. Tom megan murphy, thank you so much. When you come back, will you please expand why the debate is at 9 00 p. M. It is insane and for the kids, it should be at 7 00 p. M. It is like the world series, its be on earlier. Megan murphy will be on in the next hour. Tonight, our coverage of the radio and television. Michael mckee and marty shanker, 7 00 p. M. Attelevision, beginning 8 30. Theyre prepped for tonights president ial debate. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene is in new york. I picked it up because entrees into minutes here. Because because Andreas Utermann is here. They need to throw over the board editing they believed for years. It will probably take another global recession to change that. Very telling after mario draghi literally is going through europe telling governments they need to do more. Undress, you are one of the first ones to say Interest Rates are lower for longer even longer than the markets think it what happens now. Some point someone at some point you to be brave. I do know if it comes from governments are Central Banks, for what needs to happen so that we move out of the states quote . Status quo . Im sure fiscal policy is a part of the answer. When you to revisit the narrative around the growth wherein it i think it is a global issue and maybe we ship the way from narrow measures on gdp to whether test to measure whether we are successful. Gdp per head is our population is slowing, we may be living in a world of lower growth trend growth. That is our assumption. Around onesomewhere to 1. 5 . Maybe we dont have to reflate as much as we need to because we dont want to get back to 3 growth rate. Beyond that, i think there are countries they can afford to this glee reflate. Germany can. Not enough is thing done to reform the way we are spending the fiscal dollar or physical euro. Too much is spent still on supporting social programs and not enough on longlasting investment and infrastructure. Juncker said it is not the spent. Were not focusing enough on the investment part. Francine Andreas Utermann, thank you. He stays with us for the hour people speak with chuka umunna. Tom will be talking about brexit, asking him how he sees the u. K. Differing after that brexit vote june 23. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance worldwide. Markets on the move. Lets get right to the data. We will do this all through surveillance. Markets really moving off the ugly friday. Futures that 11. The 10 year yield at 149. Next screen. This is where you start to see some of the nuance. Massive curve flattening. Stronger, stronger yen. We are even seeing the mexican peso lets bring up the chart. Deutsche bank, nine day chart. This mornings action which is news laden. That is remarkable deterioration. It would be amazing to see Deutsche Bank under 10 euros, something the bond guy predicted months ago. Francine this goes back to the concerns we have had of Deutsche Bank, back to the doj settlement. It is quite unclear whether people will stay on the record. There is a fear that it is a little bit of a europe versus u. S. Fine fest. Tom we will get back to the markets. Right now, our first word news. Taylor republican president ial candidate donald trump looks to apply his new campaign discipline to the first debate. Trump and Hillary Clinton face off at hospira university in new york city. In recent weeks, trump has risen in the polls by learning to stay out of his own way. Whenp feeds winter party thirdparty candidates are included. You can watch here. Coverage begins at a 30 on television. In washington state, Authorities Say the 20yearold man accused of killing five people at a Shopping Mall has had a number of runins with the law in recent years. Hisas arrested outside apartment complex. Spoke today. Ys tha thousands of migrants are camped out near the city. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. Jeremy corbyn has held onto control. It could have implications for his partys prospect. And edwards is at the partys conference in liverpool. We have seen over the weekend this battle over the last a few k politics. It has not really been concluded. We are joined here are us about how tell you bring the left of uk politics back together. How canple saying we believe it . The nature of the election system that we have in the uk is you have two main parties of government. Order for it to win, it has to be a broad spectrum. , ithe fraction splits apart goes to the right for many years. 1981. That in infraction the left and the conservative party under Margaret Thatcher governed fora long time. Everyone knows we dont want to repeat that mistake which is why now we have a contest to determine whether Jeremy Corbyn continues as leader. People want to draw a line under the issues and look outward to the electorate where we need to win support. Increasingorbyn leadership of the party. When does the rest of the party get a chance to run things and make a success . 2020 . I think the members have spoken and the members of the party from all different wings. Ant us to come together i think this issue is settled. It is important to know that the they expressed a view of the leader, that was summer. The 40 of people who voted in the contest that we had expressed the concern as well. We have pretty much the same issue as last year. The issue as well of the leadership. Most importantly, the public should have confidence. We know we lost the general election because people had found concerns about competence, economic competence. And, brexit, in brexit, we saw over one third of labor voters t voting to leave the european union. What are we saying about that . You are speaking more about immigration. Im wondering if that is your tactic now, to go out and win back some of those voters. I think it would be wrong to posedhat immigration has challenges in some areas. Wayoes not have to be that if you make the right investments into areas and probably integrate communities. Once you do that, it is trusted and understanding it is not hard for the far right, whether in the uk or france are any of these other parts much harder for them to walk into the vacuum and take a foothold. Thank you very much for talking to us today on bloomberg , joining us at the labour party conference. Francine we will be back with entry is reutimann Andreas Utermann. Make business you here. What will the uk become in thr