We have plenty more from the u. K. And the conservative party. And, todays nonfarm payroll figure, a rosy picture of the u. S. Economy . Good morning. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. Im Francine Lacqua in paris. We have full coverage of the french president ial election. Mark barton is in london. Im looking forward to the conversation with Andreas Dombret. You have our market check, mark. Mark i do. Check out whats happening to european stocks. Big day ahead. The jobs report in the u. S. , the French Election on sunday. Lets have a look at the ftse. Lets have a look at the european benchmark, even better. Highest level since august 2015 yesterday. The big move seems to be continuing in the commodities market. The u. S. 10year is unchanged. Money moving into the yen. It is a riskaverse day today. Oil, lowest level since the backend of last year. The movement down and commodities. Down in commodities continues. Lets get the latest bloomberg first word news. Heres nejra cehic. Nejra in the u. S. , House Republicans mustered just enough votes to pass their Health Care Bill. The result sends the American Health care act to the senate. It stands little chance of being passed in its current form by republicans there who have been spooked by reports the plan would cause millions to lose health insurance. This is a great plan. I actually think it will get even better. Replacea repeal and a of obamacare. Whate public will now see they gave their name to. They put their name next to your paying more for less. We will make sure the public is aware of that. Wti has slipped below 45 a barrel for the First Time Since opec agreed to cut output. Crude has plunged more than 8 this week amid 11 straight weeks of expansion in u. S. Production. In the u. K. , early results in local Council Elections suggest Theresa Mays Conservative Party is on course for a sweeping victory. According to the bbc, across the 23 english and welsh counties that had fully declare results, the tories had a net gain of 150 seat in labour had lost 119. Lib dems lost 29 seats while ukip failed to win any seats. Dayal news 204i was a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Francine . Francine thank you so much. We are here live from paris, two days until the french president ial vote for the second round. This is when the french will choose their next president. It has been telegraphed. Marine le pen versus Emmanuel Macron. The latest polls, yesterday night, late in the evening and macron isgesting 61 , 62 of votes on sunday. Given the gap between macron and le pen at the moment, almost impossible for Marine Le Pen to become president , but watch out for voter turnout. In terms of how the candidates are positioning themselves, we know they are giving interviews to local press. Lets listen to Emmanuel Macron trying to once again rally the troops to make sure people go and vote for him. For the past 10 days or so, we have been leading this fight for the second round that opposes the two projects facetoface, the one of the National Front. No, dont boo them. Its pointless. Go fight them. Go make them lose. We must defeat them in the ballot boxes. Francine joining us now from paris, one of Emmanuel Macrons economic advisers, professor philippe martin. Great to have you on the program. Thank you for coming in. How crucial is it that mr. Turnoutets a big voter and also that he gets around 60 , 62 of the vote, to make sure he has a chance of Controlling Parliament . Philippe it is important because it generates a dynamic for the legislative elections. The laws have to be drafted in parliament. We need a majority at the parliament. That means the movement has to have a majority. The more we get votes at the president ial election, the better chance to get a majority. Francine what will be his number one reform . Hes considered very anglosaxon almost. Reformsnking liberal to unlock the labor market. Philippe the first thing he will do, he said he will do it during the summer, would be the labor market reform. The labor market is still too rigid. We have not done the response that other European Countries have done. Theeed to do this to unlock labor market, especially for those who are excluded from the labor market. The second thing to do is also to reduce labor cost. In france, especially for unskilled workers, labor costs are too high. That means theres a problem of a gap between labor cost and skill. Francine he was economy minister. Why didnt he do more on those when he was in charge of the economy . Philippe he wanted to go further. He said this loudly. That is the reason he created this movement. He resigned as the minister and launched his president ial campaign. He wants to be much more ambitious than the former government. Francois hollande was not elected on such a platform. He was not elected on a platform of reforms, especially on the labor market. So france wants to be reformed. Do you believe the labor unions which Still Holding a lot of power in france are ready for that reform . Philippe some unions are not clearly, but there are unions who are more reformist and they want reforms. ,n fact, in terms of elections the most reformist one is the one in top position. It is not going to be easy. Have anink that he will electoral democratic mandate to reform the country and he wants to do it fast. We know these reforms dont have an impact immediately. It takes time. Francine what about the tax cuts . I live in london. A lot of french living in london. Will there be tax cuts to attract new capital, fresh investment, but also people . Philippe he wants to reduce Corporate Tax on profit from 32 to 25 . That is going to impact investment. He wants to reform and reduce also the wealth tax, which is big on people, and i guess for people who hesitate to relocate between london and paris. Then theres also a local tax that he wants to reduce. Francine is there something that is not in his program that you would do . How do you get productivity back . Philippe i think the labor market reform is important. The education reform is important. Training. He puts a lot of emphasis on training. In germany, austria, scandinavian countries, the Training System is extremely important. He really believes were going to change jobs. You need a Training System which is very efficient. That is one way to get higher productivity. You need also more productivity. If firms are going to exploit innovation, they need to rearrange completely their way of working. Right now in france it is difficult for firms to rearrange the way they work. We need more flexibility. That is one of the crucial elements of the labor market. Ecbcine you have the starting at the end of the year. We will come back to that. Thank you professor. That was philippe martin. Mark, i want to hand it back to you. We have plenty more throughout the day on bloomberg tv and radio. We will bring you special coverage of the french president ial election on sunday. Mark david stubbs is here, jpmorgan global asset strategist. Valentin marinov. Gentlemen, thanks for joining us. Lets show off. This is euro since first round, since first round, basically all these currencies have fallen against the euro, yen by 5 , swedish krona, danish krone. This is my second currency chart. Overnight volatility. Nothing near brexit, but still fairly elevated levels. Valentin, how are we positioned ahead of sunday . Valentin we are bullishly euro. Weve seen the lows of the year. The first round, it could be a game changer for the euro. We expect the second round to , thatm what we are hoping Emmanuel Macron will be the new french president. This much seems to be in the price already. The bund spread is back at the lows. It feels like we are positive for the euro. A lot of that positiveness may be in the price. The path of the euro will depend on the eurozone fundamentals and indeed the prospects for ecb qe taper. Positive over longerterm but for a different reason. Francine another bit of showing off quickly. This is france, italy, spain, and stoxx 600 since election. Top one is italy, followed by france, spain, stoxx 600. The periphery is outperforming france. As valentin says, game changer for euro if macron wins . David i think so but i want to distinguish between two things. One is the fear coming out of the markets. A lot of that has happened. Theres a little more to go. That is very different from investors outside of the euro area buying into the sustainability of the currency and it being a place they want to Park Investments for five years and 10 years. Is it the place with the biggest upside in equities . A lot of the quantitative analysis would say it would. If you look at the upside of potential for Economic Growth, margins, still very depressed. Etc. I think it is still going to take it while for that belief and that trust to be earned by europe for global investors. Mark david, valentin, stay there. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra the chief executive of Goldman Sachs has warned that london will stall because of the risk from the brexit process. Lloyd blankfein said that his firm which employs 6500 people in the u. K. Has contingency plans to move people depending on the outcome. He added that he hopes the bank would not have to trigger the plans as he wants to keep as much of its activities in the u. K. As possible. Britains forthcoming exit from the European Union poses little concern to corporate starter slack technologies, which opened a new office in london. Ceo Stewart Butterfield told bloomberg the u. K. Remains a key market regardless of brexit. Brexit or no brexit, london is still london and the u. K. Is still the u. K. It is a big market and we have hundreds of thousands of users across the country. China is making its boldest attempt yet to break the stranglehold that airbus and boeing have on the market for commercial airliners. After years of delays, the first modern large jet made its maiden flight this morning. The c919 is made by state owned comeback, but behind the made in china tag, the c919 depends on western suppliers. Mark . Mark wti climbing back above 45, earlier slipping below it for the First Time Since opec agreed to cut output in november. Crude plunging about 8 this week amid eight straight weeks of expansion in u. S. Production. A tough week for iron ore as well. Prices plunging amid concern about rising supplies and tighter Financial Conditions in china. Still with us, david stubbs and Valentin Marinov. David, this selloff in oil, iron ore, spreading across metals. Is this something weve got to the other two . Does this have broader risks . What is going on here . Philippe welcome to the david welcome to the world of commodities for the next decade. You had a huge crush. Epic buildout, listed oil and capex rose. Since 2013, it has collapsed by 14 . You had enough capacity come out of the market, enough investment being counseled to put a floor under some commodity prices. T was a bounce from they are never going to get very far. Theres a huge amount of shadow supply sitting there. Any rise triggers supply. You are seeing it in oil and iron ore. Were going to be in a chubby trading range choppy trading range. Mark what does this mean for the Commodity Currencies . Valentin the biggest underperformers will be like the australian dollar, canadian dollar, even the new zealand dollar. I guess you can cast the net wider to include emerging markets. What is important is that the drop in iron ore, in oil prices, is happening despite the overall improving global conditions. If you look at global pmis, hard data has been pointing at a more sustained recovery. Despite that, those prices are coming off, which is highlighting the problem, the oversupply out there. To me, the Biggest Surprise was how productive or how resilient the Shale Oil Producers have proven to be. The fact that we are producing the same total amount of oil out of the u. S. With 1000 less oil rigs the rig count in the u. S. Peaked at 6600. Much lessis, with infrastructure, you can really produce the same amount of oil. That is a big message for the opec producers. They need to cut more and more. That is a war of attrition for them, which is not boding well. Francine mark stay there. The tories heading for big gains in local elections, boosting theresa mays bid for a large majority in next Months National poll. Were going to break down the results. What do they mean for the Brexit Strategy . This is bloomberg. Results in the u. K. Local elections suggest Theresa Mays Conservative Party is on course for a sweeping victory, boosting the bid for a larger parliamentary majority to help her navigate brexit. According to the bbc, across the english and welsh counties that had fully declared results, the tories had a net gain of 150 seats. Labour lost 125. Ukip failed to win any seats whatsoever. Joining us now, svenja odonnell. David stubbs and Valentin Marinov are still with us. Imagine on Prime Minister mays face this morning. Svenja absolutely. Sweeping victory for the tories. They are going to try to play this down. One of their key strategies in general elections is not to see this as a done deal. They are worried about turnout. They are worried people are going to think, why bother voting . Youre going to see a lot of tories saying, we cant really mark they are playing down the polls. Svenja but behind closed doors, they will be cracking open the champagne. Mark did theresa mays speech, the quite astonishing some would say speech earlier this week, do you think that speech played into it . Svenja the strategy is to galvanize the vote. It is a oneissue election. It is aiming for the brexiteer parklands. Theyve won with you cant. It seems all these voters have gone to the tories. Theyve also probably gained quite a few from labour. That is an issue that seems to be galvanizing voters. How that plays out with europe mark answer me that question in the near term. Where are we with e. U. U. K. Relations . Svenja pretty poisonous briefings on both sides. I think at the moment what theresa may is focusing on is nearterm election gains. This is gloves off tactics. Straight out of lindens playbook. At the moment, it is a very shortterm approach. A lot of results coming up in the e. U. In six months, the picture may look different. The question of whether this will sour relations to an extent that it may poison the possibility of a practical deal for britain, i dont know. Theres a lot to play for. Poisonalentin, does it the chances of a practical negotiation agreement between the two sides, what happened this week . Valentin too early to say, but it is not going to help it. What investors should realize is that the outcome depends on the british, but also on the europeans. Chances are europe will want to make an example of the u. K. Chances are they want to discourage any member wanting to follow in the footsteps of the u. K. That means these are going to be tough negotiations. The risk is still very much out there irrespective of how the election outcome shapes out to the. We also think a lot of political risks are already baked in the cake. The pound is where it is because of that concern about hard brexit. It feels like it is already there. We think that the pound, the path of the pound, will depend on how the economy performs and what the boe is going to do about the economy. This is where we are still very much concerned. We have still to see the real impact of the sterling depreciation, the impact of that on domestic demand, the impact of still uncertain outcome of the brexit negotiations. These are not positive. Mark the path of least resistance for sterling, up or down . David up in the shortterm, around the election result. A thumping majority. The market is going to like that. I agree that were going to have this kind of rhetoric constantly over the next 12 to 18 months and learn practically nothing of substance. That is going to keep a lid on sterling. Think about this. The currency is down here and the economy is fine. Where does the currency go if the economy is not fine . [indiscernible] mark great to see you. Svenja odonnell, how u. K. Political correspondent, david stubbs, Valentin Marinov. Will todays nonfarm payrolls paint a rosy picture of the u. S. Economy . That is next. This is bloomberg. Did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. Hey youve gotta see this. Cno. N. Alright, see you down there. Mmm, fine. Okay, what do we got . Okay, watch this. Do the thing we talked about. What do we say . Its going to be great. Watch. Remember what we were just saying . Go irish see that . Yes im gonna just go back to doing what i was doing. Find your awesome with the xfinity x1 voice remote. Mark breaking news out of the czech republic. Hispremier has withdrawn offer to resign. He offered to step down after the escalation of a clash with his billionaire finance minister. This is six months before they were due to face off in a general election. Heres nejra cehic. Nejra in the u. S. , House Republicans have mustered just enough votes to pass their Health Care Bill. The result sends the