Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240621 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance June 21, 2024

Vonnie it sounds like the time for diplomacy has ended in the greek crisis. Greece was given less than 24 hours to end the deadlock over bailout money. Eu officials tell Bloomberg News all scenarios are being examined as greece refuses to come to light. We are learning this morning that the hack attack on federal personnel records was a lot worse than first thought. Hackers may have stolen data on as many as 40 Million People more than triple the number reported last week. The u. S. Has blamed chinese hackers. Officials are considering a number of responses one likely to target data in hackers servers. The house is expected to vote on the fasttrack trade bill today, and there is an allout fight on both sides. Union backed democrats are trying to find ways to defeat the bill. They say it would kill jobs and wages. One of twitter posco founders will try to get the company back on track. Ceo in the costello ceo to costello has stepped down. Investors are endorsing the change. Shares of twitter arising premarket. Colstolo said leaving was his idea. I initiated conversations with the board at the end of last year about ceo change. And then at our meeting last week, and my decision to step down we agreed now is the right time to begin this transition. Vonnie he also said twitter is focused on remaining in independent company, what he says the board will evaluate any offer. Do not count out apple when it comes to tv, according to the dish network chairman. In an exclusive interview betty liu said apple was late to the game. I do not think it ends until next year. I think we will probably see multiple entrance into the cable industry at some point. Funnyvonnie in the nba finals, golden state beat cleveland, to tie the game at 22. Steph curry scored 22 points for the warriors. Lebron james was held to 20 in this game. There was a scary moment when he lost his balance and crashed into a courtside camera after getting fouled. Game five is sunday in oakland. Sorry, guys tom he stitched up his head and took a brendan i wish we could stay up late enough to watch this. The warriors used smaller players to get the game faster and it really worked. Tom lets gated tate a check lets get a data check. Im going to call it quiet. Movement in the european markets of the greece news the eurodollar, 1. 1187. After a volatile week in yields, looking at the german bond, near 1 . That is still a big deal. 9 . A second day of weaker new Zealand Dollar at point 9864. At. 9864. Lets continue the discussion off the bloomberg terminal and the dollar. China and some of our secondary partners way back 30 years Dollar Strength Dollar Strength, and then we had to do something, so we did it three blocks over where vonnie quinn shops. Then we are talking about the rubin dollar, the strong dollar associated with the late 1990s. Mark chandler, looking for a redux with this. Brendan that is an outlier call. Brendan there is deep unease in the late 1990s. Is there a set of circumstances that will cause another tom there is a lot of writing on that. It is so much more fractious now postworld war ii. There is a look at a Mark Chandler call from brown brothers. Central banks continue to force the news flow. Look at china, where there is discussion over action this coming weekend to support their economies. Seth masters is chief Investment Officer at sanford reinstein. He understands the linkage of china at sanford bernstein. He understands the linkage of china. Seth masters actually stuck to the trenches. You guys still write the block books, write . Seth we do. Tom you have an unique ability on china. You talk there years ago. What is the biggest difference between the china then and the china now . Seth my question years ago after being there in the 1980s was would they be Living Standards in china has the average person basically almost quintupled. At some point it has end because the Business Model in china was dependent on export driven growth. At this point the amount of investment in china is absurdly high by any standard, even in china, and export share of china is extremely high. That had to change no matter what. Brendan with china having reached this status, are the in the middle . Are they making the transition to buying stuff, or are they stuck making stuff . Are they going to transition well . Tom i think that seth as we see it, they have the right strategy. To try to focus on domestic consumption driven growth. That is the opportunity for them. The challenge is that means they have to restructure the whole Business Model. Adapts to slower and more persistent and more value added tom to your point, is mr. Ma the point to spring that consumption . Seth china has an opportunity to essentially take advantage of leapfrog technology. The problem is, no one has ever done it before. Another problem with china is that the demographic transition is happening as well. So the Chinese Labor force is going to shrink dramatically over the next 10 years by probably over 100 Million People. Brendan we tend to talk numbers, particularly if you do not understand china, which i do not. What is the cultural shift that has to take place . Seth i think a lot of this is not only culture but regulation. Chinese people are not disinclined to consume. They have a system where there was a lot of forced savings. As the chinese economy liberalize is, you will see they will grow but is it selfsustaining . Will we see it at the 6 , 7 real level that we have seen . Tom longterm payrolls is 144 million. Vonnie what i was going to ask is there was a huge boost recently and Retail Investors are getting more involved rid how do you read those gains in chinese stocks . Seth dirty socks have gone from bid being chinese stocks have gone from being there is real estate, which is basically being subdued by the anticorruption and other controls. Bank deposits, which are not keeping up with inflation, or stocks. We have seen an explosion theyre buying stocks and even going on margins to buy stocks. That is probably not the same people consuming. You have to be careful in china. Some stocks in china have gotten absurdly expensive. Tom we will get to his very interesting paper. Brendan we are going completely without twitter question. Jack dorsey is back. He will try to look for a ceo for twitter. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good friday morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie a prison worker will be reportedly charged with several crimes in the upstate new york jailbreak. The woman admitted giving the convicts power tools. The two killers are in their seventh day on the run. Local towns are in a state of virtual lockdown. Goldman sachs wants to get back into the game. Bloomberg news reports goldman is investing in Software Trading infrastructure to keep up with competitors. And we have gotten a glimpse of the first commercial version of virtual reality. Facebook has unveiled its oculus goggles. Eventual, that eventually, oculus will be designed to receive computer commands. Brendan and they fixed the technology so you no longer get nauseated when using them. Tom this is the decline of western civilization. Brendan this is just kids doing things you do not understand. This is rock n roll. Tom i remember throwing one box down the stairs. I actually did that. Brendan on the board but not running the company, dick costol o. Now he is out. Heres the only number that now matters. Twitter 302 million. Facebook am 1. 40 4 billion. So there is going to be a new ceo, jack dorsey for the interim. What needs to be fixed . There is a lot, but it has to start with products. In the context of social media and facebook with 1. 4 billion users, they need to figure out a way to grow their user base from 300 million, and engage consumers so that they stay on twitter longer. Brendan i read a couple of different times last night a post from one person who had an early stake in twitter. His point is that twitter is intimidating to new users. Is there value in that . There is. Just getting on to twitter, of 300 million users it is a big number but 500 million see twitter every day but do not log on. That is a problem for twitter because if you are not longed on to their platform, they cannot sell advertising. Tom i want to drive this forward. Out of the new york times, tom when does google buy them . Quite frankly, google has never gotten social right. It has not resonated with the marketplace. Tom it is terrible. Seth it does not really help. One could argue that is a big hole in the google portfolio. Twitter could fix it, but a lot of people say twitter is probably not big enough yet. Tom Jack Dorsey Steve jobs who is going to make the decision . Brendan i remember when dick costolo first started, one of the things that did not make sense at the time is that they did not seem to understand where they were in terms of making revenue or growing their user base. Tom we call that running the company. He was going to run the company for mr. Dorsey . Brendan the cfo has taken a big responsibility. The question is do you give it to someone like that, and operational person, or do you give it to a technologist can speed innovation and grow advertising. A lot of people would like to see dorsey stay because he is a visionary. Let him be the more steve jobs. Tom are they selling to google . That is the money question. I dont think so. If you talk to twitter, they seem to have another big iteration left to go. Another big leg up. Brendan there is an ipo, but they are not really a fully grown company. I do not agree with that. There is real revenue and profitability. There are 300 million users. They are beyond the venture stage. The question is, are they a niche medium like facebook . Vonnie every event, it is twitter that i go on. I do not go on to facebook for an event. Can i advertise my brand, my product echo with advertisers, it has not resonated yet. Tom did you talk to James Murdoch last night . I did not. Brendan chris saccas advice is that we are going to stick with paul sweeney because we are going to talk about fox in a second. Evidently something happen there yesterday. Our twitter question of the day how would you fix twitter . Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. He is 84. Lets go to the morning mustread. The reality that the Murdoch Family faces the Murdoch Family wealth is heavily tied up in the value of the shares they own and it is less than you think. So even though nobody can stop mr. Murdoch from turning the company over to his sons, the murdochs need to maintain the confidence of Public Markets to maintain their family. Is this just about mr. Murdoch s 84th . Seth he has been grooming his sons for over a decade now to take over the entertainment company, foxconn and news corp. Rupert is the ultimate media mogul, and he is passing the reins to the next generation. Tom paul sweeney is with us, and seth masters as well. Do you have to get on those wonderful cash flows . Seth you have to be careful about where you pick and choose to be. I think the story, ironically is about something we also do which is Family Wealth planning. We work a lot with ceos. Tom mr. Murdoch, if you are listening this morning, a b bernstein. Seth does that involve letting the family continue to run the company or not . You need to keep a lot of eggs in one basket, and that dramatically increases your risk. Paul i think he will have chase carey there for at least a year as his advisor. The question is, can he step up . He has done a good job before. He has been involved but now is the time to really execute. Brendan challenges that would james has to do is turn in empire into a company. Tom paul rupert is an empire builder. He is not interested in shortterm gains. Brendan lets talk about something that is a much bigger mess than the fox succession planning. It is greece, of course. On twitter we are asking about twitter. Tell us how you fix it. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good beautiful friday morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance peter here is vonnie quinn. Vonnie greece is being told to stop demands. The Alexis Tsipras is being accused of dragging his feet on debt agreements. The two sides are nowhere close to a deal, according to a spokesman. We are here from the german spokesman saying the imf has not broken off greek talks. Hackers stole data of a lot more federal employees that was first reported. As well as many as 40 million may have been affected, and officials are considering a number of responses. One might be targeting the data in hackers servers. A verdict in a case will be issued by a french court. The former head of the the strauss con case he is accused of pimping. The Mexican Government made trades with seven banks to lack in to lock in higher prices. President Henrique Pena that tell says the company has been hurt. I think in general, for emerging economies, we have a lot of problems. We face enormous volatility from the economic wars and especially for new mexico and especially for mexico. Vonnie he also reiterated his pledge to balance the budget by 2017 and to avoid tax increases. Dinosaurs roar back to life today in theaters. It is the debut of jurassic world. The movie is getting the widest release ever. Ticket sales are expected to top 125 million. Tom is it any good . Brendan it is the only value to our morning show. We can say, lets hit a matinee, guys. Is it any good . It is chris pratt on a motorbike being pursued by dinosaurs. You do not have to ask if it is any good. That is not the point. Tom lets get back to the greek drama. Headlines across the bloomberg terminal they are absolutely surreal. One leader looks for the need for high intensity. Another says where there is will, there is way. One of our correspondents worked out a glass halffull full on the left, full on the right. Hans nichols joins us. Who needs what to happen before we get to monday echo hans what we are waiting for is some sort of credible proposal from greece. That is what all the officials are saying. The German Government is briefing on this, saying they need something new from greece. The most important thing that has happened today has not come out of the politicians mouths. Broadcasters in germany say 51 of germans want greece to leave the euro. Only one only 41 want them to stay in. This shows me how much the public debate has taken a toll on the german public. The german public is ready to let greece go. That includes merkels calculations. Brendan hans, you are an amazing reporter, but in the last four months, frankly i have run out of things to ask you. Im turning it over to seth masters. Seth what do you think in the short run will happen if this is the ultimatum the last ultimatum, and things break . Hans because the imf is saying a technical default will happen until a couple of months later you are also hearing now the different definition of a default is a commercial default. So that means if they miss these imf payments, there could be some way to rescue things. In my mind, that is just a clever way the universal way they can expand the deadline on this as i said before, and first rule of covering a greek deadline, they can always kick this down further. So i am loathe to answer that directly. The teams they seem to keep shirking the deadline. Tom academic heavyweights are saying when is the restructuring going to occur . What is the catalyst to get to a bill rhodes like restructuring . Hans you need some sort of deal on having shortterm targets real. No one in germany denies the fact, with exception of the few folks on the right, that you need to have this mountain of debt. What sort of accounting trick do you use that is more palatable to the german public . There is a very important story in a mass publication tabloid this morning, that they say Angela Merkels government is planning an exit but they are also talking about debt restructuring. The idea that there is a debt restructuring conversation in berlin brendan we can get lost in the ticktock of what being what is being asked in the counterproposal. At how much of this is about pride about not being able to be seen to lose . Hans there could be some of that, but in athens it is more than just pride. It seems to be what rollback austerity problems, which they think is inflicting pain. Angela merkel indicates that she is willing to do something, and she did not seem overly worried about precedents. Precedents and pride can be conflated. The president s issue seems to be imported important with the imf. They do not want to establish a precedents where they are soft on debt negotiations. Brendan hans nichols in berlin, doing humans work on a story. I can already say we are coming back to you on monday because there will still be a greek crisis monday. Coming up, of course germany tied with norway today. Yesterday in the womens world cup. I know you watched it. I did. Tom no one cares. Brendan people do care and i am going to show tom why after the break. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance peter we are sportive this morning and we have a sportive best chart. Brendan i came to work and i had to explain why the womens world cup matters. That is the subject of todays single best chart. This is what were looking at. The fat bars are nonworld cup. The white bars are nonworld cup the white bars or world cup years. World cup attendance has soared. Fox news is running at they have a 15 Million Campaign on this. They are going into elementary schools. It is working. One of the things that you notice when you are watching the games is that there is attendance that is incomparable to attendance at the other games. Vonnie can i just point out that it is in canada . Brendan it helps in canada. That is a conceivable trip. It is a little harder thinking about going to brazil. Tom very good. We move from womens soccer to a more difficult story. This is a follow on from the former head of the imf Dominique Strauss cant. Dominique strausskahn. I am going to call it an unseemly matter in new york city. What would you call that . Brendan it is all like that. The ultimate outcome of the trial is not what matters, it is what gets dragged out about your character during the trial. It is hard to imagine before he was arrested on the tarmac in the

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