Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20150212 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse February 12, 2015

Million bill out between friends, russia, and ukraine france, russia and ukraine. There is a draft proposal and they are having an agreement but does it mean that will not be able to sign something. Yeah, absolutely. They have been there for 60 hours, i have lost count. The leaders of germany and france, what we understand has taken place is that came up with a document that the russians presented to the prorussian rebels who were in the building but not part of the talks because ukraine will not talk to it and they rejected it. The eu said that start of its meeting with all 28 heads of state will be delayed so the talks can continue. In terms of the process, i put the bits together, the financial package critical to establishing a baseline for the economy. You needed to get back in and build a deal. How do the 2 bits fit together . It is important, the timing. What they were hoping was to have a ceasefire but i do not think the german chancellor and french president wouldve went in there if that was not a high probability in everybody thought it would get done late last night. Christine lagarde in brussels announced a Financial Aid program. It is significant chanel still without an agreement. She did say it is a deal without that is not without risk i. E. Geopolitical risk. Clearly an effort by the imf to say they are respective of what happens and we stand by the ukraine. We want to keep ukraine from of warning default. A lot of people would say it is pretty late, they got 15 billion last year and now the ukrainian currency 17. 5 billion. The eu has to come up with some of the money and russia is responsible, russia linked the ukrainians 3 billion and will they do a deal on it russian mark i would not get too hopeful on it. On it . I would not get too hopeful on it. A lot of people in kiev would say our currency was the worst performing last year. And the sector is incomplete crisis. It would be great to get the Financial Aid earlier. Ryan chilcote, the latest on the imf loan. Lets go from one potential deal to another potential deal or may be no deal, we will wait and see. The greek gridlock is continuing in brussels. The early hours of this morning, however, we failed to bridge the differences between greece and what could be the next aid program. Lets talk about what happens next. Hans nichols joins us and he spoke to the Greek Foreign minister and what was be tone . Of the t the tone was confusion. Four hours into the meeting we thought we would have a dell. Then it was called off. There is a plan to fund agrees beyond at end of this month. We do not know it they will stay in the Bailout Program. I asked if they might turn to russia for support. He was pretty emphatic it would not happen. To see how europe evolves crisis to crisis, disagreement to disagreement, we always find solutions and managed to stick together. That is how your evolved. We would not be here if it was not the history. Would you rate russian financing . Know. I was pretty emphatic, i said, no. No. I mentioned earlier in the evening the late evening, the euro was up on the report that it is potentially had a deal and then it sank when the leader of the euro group said we have this thing that is back and forth. It appeared they had a deal and then [no audio] Yanis Varoufakis called back to athens and try to get approval and he did not get a deal and took to the floor. It gives you a sense night talk to the belgium finance minister about this guy and a sense of how difficult of these negotiations are going to be. There was a discussion and anything that is really important in this discussion between greece and the euro area countries but like i said, we do not include what to conclusions and continue on monday. Give me a sense of your optimism, if any at all. Like today it went from left to right, up and down. It is hard to take leverage of it. But it will continue to the a very important discussion. Guy, we will be eu leaders gathering today and we might have progress but it looks like the heavy lifting will be done on monday the next time they gather. And gets us closer to the end of february for greece could be cut out of funding arrangements that have ecb or eu backing. Hans, thank you. Hans nichols on the greece story. We wait, we watch, we will see what happens on a monday. That reported their first loss in seven years. We are joined by the ceo thank you for joining us. In terms of some of the impact or things that impact the most impact negatively on your earnings, the price of fuel. What is your strategy Going Forward . Will you hatch or by moore hedge or buy more . Going forward taking one billion in losses in 2015 and the end results. It is just [indiscernible] losses Going Forward. Reduce our costs to 2 billion in 2015. Good morning. Ryanair more hedged than you at 90. Mr. Leary talked about the airlines with lower hedging has an advantage. How are you going to use that to your advantage . Well, first of all [indiscernible] to begina a lower cost Going Forward. Contrary to hedged heavily and a cost element. The other thing what we do we will do the same building up to u. S. Thats one more key. A key element and strategy. [indiscernible] good position to compete. A final question because we have breaking news, where are we in the agreement with the u. S. On the transatlantic . We have been waiting and watching you get a sense it is tough going. When are we going to get an announcement . It is a long time overdue. And, obviously, a long time ago. I think only because of competition. Prices that we get our customers. Thats why they tried to stop us. Ok thank you very much. Bjoern kjos ceo of Norwegian Air shuttle. Of breaking news from Vladimir Putin is the ceasefire with ukraine has been agreed on february 15. He said they are expecting basically germany, france ukraine, russia, express constraint to the ceasefire on february 20 15. It is quite telling he is the one telling this. Quite tell it in terms of the details and the nittygritty. It has been reached on the withdrawal of heavy weapons. That is quite significant because of the heavy weapons have caused the ball of the damage and the fact that they are withdrawn is a turning point. What i have not seen is any sense of whether or not you are going to have a of militarization of our buffer zone in place going to have do military station or a buffer zone or peacekeepers going in and monitoring this situation. If there is to be some kind of buffer zone, how big will it be will be a critical question people will be asking. This they live picture from minsk and we expect leaders. We have been waiting for a signing. There must be some sort of photo opportunity at maybe that is where the officials are. Mr. Putin saying theres been an agreement on ukrainian constitutional reform. We will get more, this is a huge deal. We have talked about it for the last couple of hours. Now, we have a ceasefire. For february 15 is one of the ceasefire starts but we expect more restraint on until then. Lets see if with that the russian market and the ruble up. People have been waiting to see if we got a deal and if it could in turn lead to a more benign environment may be for the russian economy, i. E. Sanctions. Frozen after this stage or if they can be withdrawn. A little bit reaction in dollars ruble. Lets go to ryan. The russian president finishing prepared remarks to the russian pool. These comments are coming from the russian president and none of the other leaders. What is more important is that it was not a joint statement. The russian president said they agreed on a ceasefire that will begin on sunday. It was much greater in many ways if that is correct that there will be a ceasefire starting this sunday. He said, disagreements and discussions over who guards the border and there seems to be a lack of clarity when it comes to the autonomy that in the separatist regions would enjoy. These meetings went on for 15 16 hours. The president s and leaders of germany and france and the eu meeting, it went on so long that the meeting has been pushed back to accommodate Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. It looks like perhaps they resolve some of the issues, may be well ceasefire like we agreed in minsk once upon a few months ago that failed a month later. Some of the more Ambitious Goals they had for this meeting yes, go ahead. You have been following up Vladimir Putin and the russian economy and politicians for decades. What do you make of the fact it is unilateral . It just comes from Vladimir Putin . Is is something to give him the upper hand or make him look stronger . I do not think it was preagreed to make him look stronger. What we were expecting to have a big signing in the been hall and weapon watching the video feed and expecting and we have been watching the video feed and expecting the president , the 4 of them. We have the russian president leading and speaking before anyone else reading prepared remarks. We have a ceasefire and schooling off. There are a lot of questions that remain unanswered i am sure we will get answers over the next 510 minutes from the other leaders. It looks according to the russian president , and have achieved some things here but not what everyone was anticipating. The comments from the ukrainian president earlier today starting toward people these talks may not deliver the success that some people were hoping they would. Ryan, thank you so much. Ryan chilcote on the ceasefire. There will be a ceasefire on february 15, this sunday. We will take a break and analyze the new news. It is a fastpaced morning. We have plenty more to come. Inflation. That is a little bit later and waiting for statements. Their press conference potentially calming up. We will take a break and see you in a moment. Welcome back. We have breaking news a big deal. Vladimir putin announced a ceasefire in ukraine from february 15. These are live pictures at the independence palace where Vladimir Putin was meeting with Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel. We were stunned watching pictures of Vladimir Putin and it looked like he was leaving. He hasnt made his statements and is now going to be departing, i. E. If i was reading the body language i would say Vladimir Putin wanting to make it clear i am in control and i am out of here now. Lets go to ryan chilcote. Is there a danger he has announced too much . We have not heard from leaders and that is unusual. That is unusual. It wouldve been better from a peace or a joint statement as we were expecting. What we saw was reading prepared remarks saying a ceasefire has been agreed upon for sunday and exacted they agreed to remove heavy weapons. An agreement on ukrainian constitutional reform and to federalize their political system in order to give more autonomy to the republics in the east. Comments from first walk alone at and getting statements from some and dust from Francois Hollande and statement comments from Francois Hollande and statements from others. We are not getting any more details. It is pretty clear that confirming what we heard. There a statement from the leaders we are looking at live pictures from the Independence Hall and we are expecting a formal statement. The military zone and they have removed the weapons. They are talking about a 50, 70 kilometer and that is no wider end of the spectrum of what people were looking for in demilitarized. It freezes of conflict. This is what putin while too. He talked about a of this what putin wanted. He talked about a federalize country. That is the bigger end of the spectrum. Poroshenko is speaking in lets wait to see what he says. It is a big gap in the artillery cannot hit either side and neutralized the violence. We have the an agreement from the very same city just a few months ago and is survived for a month and a half. Rings are moving along quickly. An hour ago, we had the head of the imf announcing 17. 5 billion in terms of dollars of aid. It is a very big step. Its a step in the right direction. It underscores the confidence in the nations currency which is one of the worstperforming currencies last year. They are already in tatters. The currency and the banks. This on top of the 17. 5 billion they got from the imf last year. Christine lagarde set would be part of a 40 billion package. We are here from the ukrainian president saying they rebuffed ultimatums. Tough negotiations. Of until an hour ago, it was unclear if well get an agreement. At there were clear sticking points and one was a town, which the ukrainians control, just barely. We understand it the rebels asked if be part of their territories and the russians said, no way. As it is, it will be interesting to see. Since its a last agreed to a ceasefire, the rebels took another 200 square miles of ukrainian territory. It appears to be enshrined in this zone and we will see. But more, as they were asking for, was not the delivered. The 50 kilometers. What i am not seeing an poroshenko is in the middle of the press conference, i am not hearing anything about peacekeepers. No mention of any kind of u. N. Mandated peacekeeping force going in. In terms of one in 10 where 10 is where we can forget about it and the violence ins, we are at a 4 or five. They have agreed on the ceasefire. The last ceasefire did not last very long. It did not last very long. They are also not taking hostages. What we understand is independence palace and, they are probably briefing some of the reporters upstairs and we are expecting them to come down the stairs to talk to reporters. There is a are. There they are. It was signed by the contact, lowerlevel officials that were attending. It was not a deal designed by the russian president and ukrainian president with hollande and merkel. Emerging from the talks. The door sill summit in what it is called. 16 hours. Duracel summit is what it is called. It looks like they may be about to brief. Lets see if we can listen in what is being said by the 2 leaders. Absolutely extraordinary. They will head to brussels. They eu meeting has been pushed back so they can make it. We think, just looking at live pictures. They seem to be on their way out as well. One thing we can preclude we are unlikely to get more sanctions imposed against russia. What we were hearing from officials, there is a visible failure of the collapse of the top if the russian president verse out another is agreed upon , they are going to discuss imposing more sanctions. This comes from the does it meanwhile peacekeepers on the ground or does not mean that does it mean we will have peacekeepers on the ground or does it not mean that . They have people on the ground and will say where the fire is coming from and what is going on. They are there to observe and not peace keep. It is interesting to look at body language. Merkel and hollande seems to be in a jovial mood. Not a perfect a deal, but something that is pretty strong. Everybody was concerned a complete collapse would be a calamity. If these talks yielded nothing it would be a real disaster. They you in threatening more sanctions and the u. S. Considering arming the ukrainian army. Angela merkel said she believes it will lead to a larger conflict. People use the term proxy war, like the old cold war. And government funding the separatists and ukraine is the battleground. That is what really everybody wanted to avoid was complete collapse. About a week ago, Angela Merkel change her decision on the talks only wanted to enter if she can get some dissociative and then concerned up that substantive and then was concerned and agreed to engage again. She was with hollande and they are here again. Cameras are on the move. The ukrainians leaving. Angela merkel chasing after him. Making comments. Still a big effort to make on the ukrainian talks. What is there still to decide and still to do in terms of what needs to be achieved . We have a demilitarized zone, observers. What is next . To stop shooting full stop. What kind of autonomy they have . Who polices the area as you were saying, will their bps keepers . Maybe they were making progress and things seemed to be strained. The borders. Renegotiated on the borders. We understand some press agencies and theres been no decision. The borders with the ukraine itself were up for discussion and then the patrolling of ukraines borders of the federal border. The question is, does ukraine get patrol is on the border . The rebels, said no. Implementation risk. We have a deal and we are into implementation. The markets, as you pointed out has been quite shy. Will there be a view that yes, today, a big sigh of relief. But still, it needs to stick. What is interesting as we have more and more of the talks and we had them in normandy with Holland Merkel and poroshenko and putin and we had them in milan and geneva but the reality of the matter is the stakes are going for the russian president. If it is deal fails, you have to wonder how far will Angela Merkels patience extent. If there is a breakdown, i would expect sanctions very quickly. Todays a huge, huge day for this conflict. It has been 10 months since we have had the country countries in conflict. We have had a ceasefire. We spoke to a guess earlier and must see what she has to say about the 40 billion. Whats it is a big program. 40 billion is a lot. It is a big program. It is ambitious. It is not without risk. We put to buffers in there to take account some of the geopolitical risks and we much rely on the determination of the ukrainian authorities to conduct of the reforms. If conducted will unleash significantly. There has been relief of four ukraine. Relief four ukraine. Absolutely. We heard from the imf head in itself, the regional head said that contraction in ukraine was around 70 . The worstperforming economy. It is not looking great in this year. The contraction in ukraine was around 7 . It is hard to make a forecast when a big chunk of the country is engulfed in warfare. Even after these talks, the ceasefire, if it happens, will not happen until midnight sunday and there will be plenty off a fighter. At this is from poroshenko saying they are going to decentralize powers. A russian demand. Is that the federal structure he wants . What the devil is in the details. What the prorussian separatists who would like is the kind of federalization that would allow them to weigh in and veto, if you will, federal government decisions. Should ukraine, 10 years down the

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