Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20150225 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse February 25, 2015

Welcome. You are watching the polls live from Bloomberg European Head Quarters in london. I am guy johnson. We have a great lineup and we will be speaking exclusively to the finance minister. And the outlook and personalities behind the parties for the most famous spin doctor tony blair, a former campaign manager. The head of hsbc will be questioned over the tax evasion scandal. The lastminute decision by the treasury select came off of the emergence that he had held a Swiss Bank Account by a panamanian company. That starts at 2 15 london time and they will answer questions about tax avoidance and if the institution is too big to manage. Lets go to anna edwards on what we can expect from the treasury committee. Have we mentioned it is an Election Year . The most senior bankers are going in front of the u. K. Treasury select committee and politicians get a chance to grill the executives about what the bank was doing and how they change things since then. The bank says they are sorry for what they did and the allegation was made that they helped tax evasion by criminals in 2007. The bankers said sorry and took out fullpage ads to say sorry. More on that. They said they change the bank a great deal since that time. The late edition said that the bank account is established and paid into to try and give some privacy for colleagues. It is an Election Year. The coach or is being described and the scene i am painting could sound otherworldly to others in the electorate. We could see them try to paint a picture of the wealth. It comes with increases in penalties and it is something that people have been talking about the problem is that it Never Looks Good to the person on the street because it is convoluted. Even some suggest that they cannot quite work out why. That was a pretty standard account at the time and it was just a thing being done back then. It is fascinating and it is starting. A says that he does not believe the bank is too big to manage and believe in a universal model. Theyre going to talk about a bank that is very big and part of the bank did not know that in 2007 what the other part of the bank was doing. To the extent the bank has changed, that could be a crucial part of the conversation. The fact that the company has brought down the profits that suggests that it needs to be broken up for the bank to address that all stop Deutsche Bank has become a byword for complexity and risk. Because back it goes back to 2007. This is a complex story. There are angles on the angles. Love the story. We will take the testimony later on. The appearance before the treasury so kemeny treasury so Community Committee will be on tv. Our bankers held to too high a standard . What do you think . Should they be given an easier ride . Are they being appropriately remunerated . Theyre all kinds of ways of looking at it. Let us know what you think. We have had great responses that we will round up for you at the end of the hour. It looks like janet yellen has come to her limits. If you look at the markets and what she is saying and the Market Expectations of a rate hike they are different. I listened yesterday and read her of the transcript. Here is my take away, went pretty much every single bank cannot find consensus, she did a good job saying nothing and that was the takeaway. Someone who does not want to commit to what they are going to do and was conditioned by what happened with the taper tantrum and worried about what happens in the market if they signal the rates changing. There is concern on her part to not say too much. She is good at saying nothing. She said enough to keep everybody happy and, at the same time if you think the data is going to get better, there is a rate hike coming and she is going to be very careful in doing that. She is very dovish and will because shes in making those moves. If you were to say if it was a slightly more hawkish or dovish which side would you be on . Neither. There is patience and that could come out of a statement. It does not want to be seen as an immediate signal. The fact that communication went on, they are laying a groundswell for a rate hike later this year. I compare this to taking a playstation 4 of a child. You tell them theyre going to take the toy and you think that they will grow up and mature. When you take the toyota way, we know that it does not matter how careful it will be. There will be tears when the rate hike comes. That is the story of my life. Taking toys from children. Having tantrums. A good analogy. The central bankers are the parents of the financial markets. A great analogy. Thank you very much. We should mention the janet yellen is just one of the central bank your parents speaking today. Mark carney and the ecb president s is taking to the stands. With one would you want as your parents are smart that should be the twitter question. Who would you like your centralbank parent to be . Answer that question. The former greek minister and the outlook for greece. Plus, lego takes on the oscars. With the snub of the lego movies, trophies. We will talk about taking on disney with the ceo. Welcome back. Streaming on bloomberg and your tablet and phone. The cashstrapped countries cleared a major hurdle with a list of reforms to extend the bailout agreements. The creditors have a starting point. Joining us now is hans nichols from berlin with more. The imf is unimpressed. There is a stopping point and a lot more needs to happen. What is going to happen . We may have turmoil. The imf is thinking and later not think of the greece has gone far enough on implementing the bailout package. You heard the negative comments and the ecb. Two of the three members in the troika. Take a look at what was written. She wants more specificity. We know that there is neither a clear simple plan for design and unequivocal undertaking to continue agreed upon policies for opening up closed sectors. That is saying that she does not buy will greece is saying and she says that they need to build trust. At the same time, it is just as important as everyone else in the negotiation because of the billion to be disbursed. It was almost as critical and opened up questions about financing. We have an agreement and it seems like the parties are skeptical about it. What are we hearing from leaders. Is the drama over or is this the first stepping stone . That means it has not held the title long enough. Listen to what Francois Hollande has to say about it. I think a good compromise has been found that expresses what degree people have expressed and the eurozone is charged with safeguarding. The question i ask myself is what greece will do to finance itself. There was talk about raising the ceiling and the approval for that. That is a discussion of according to an official. It will be a challenge to meet. Christ yes. A lot of thinking to do as a result of that. Thank you very much. Hans nichols joining from berlin. Lets go to a bloomberg exclusive. She joins us. It turns out there is good news that the government may have decided to land and understood that was promised and the rhetoric can be forgotten. And, they realize that, if they want to continue and get greece out of the crisis, what they need is a strong Reform Program and they have to get the reforms done at last and, of course what they said was some kind of magical way to fund all of the promises. It is not possible. The parties were unrealistic. The parties encourage the reforms. The political system is for over five years that we had to fight against. It will not exist anymore and it will be only very small parties. I sincerely hope that this will be from the system. You think that they understand the reality of the situation . Do you think your party would fare better . We need to work a lot on that and it is not so easy. It has been one month and we made our mistakes. There is no question about that. I was wondering said the policy was a disaster and it really was a disaster. We have to work on that. What is important is that we chose the right path and we were not perfect. Far from it. We had a very strong opposition and a lot of difficulties. We knew that we wanted greece to stay in the European Union and in the eurozone. We managed to do that. Even the eeoc said the reforms the start of the reforms we should do more. We are supposed to continue. The elections were historic and we cannot afford to lose time. There is a lot more with greece. Do you think that, at the end of the month, the government will continue in a way that it has not already, maybe finding a compromise . Or do you think that we will not see the parties agree with the ground being too great. I am an optimist and there will be an agreement. It takes into consideration the needs. Let me tell you that i am not an economist. The problem is agreed and did not have the results we expected. The recession was bigger and there is a real problem that we have to solve. Were going to take a break and come back to you the former greek minister of foreign affairs. Interesting points from a political point of view, like look at what the bailout means. That is probably more of a political statement that emphasizes the party. Yeah. We will get a different view on this in a few minutes. Well talk to the irish finance minister. It is an exclusive interview. Michael noonan is coming up. Has greece done enough . How is it to be in the room . All of that is part and parcel of a conversation surrounding greece. Michael noonan coming up. The 10 year yield dips below 1 for the First Time Ever. Is this a story of investor optimism . It looks like a story to me. We will have more on that next. Welcome back. A number of comments and talking about some of the elements of the package. New democracy, give us your take. Is there a concern greece has not gone far enough and there is not enough details . Greece will continue to cooperate. Do you think it is enough . There is four months and do they think that even this is going to far . It is going to be a tough time for these people and the government. They concentrate before the elections and there are people and members of parliament who believe that there might be some other solution to the greek problem. They have to be much more clear with what he will do. Now, he is trying to gain time. He needs time and he does not have a lot of time. He has to make it clear to the ecb and the greek people that they know what will go on and what the policy will follow. They have change what they said before the elections. Will take a break and a big part of the conversation today with the exclusive interview of the finance minister of ireland. Michael noonan. Well ask about the 10 year yield of our response and talk to him about the negotiations. There were economic lessons. All of that is to come. We will talk in front of the Treasury Select Committee later on today. That is coming up. Keep it right here. Welcome back to the pulse live from bloombergs European Headquarters here in london. Im francine lacqua. Im guy johnson. These are the shares to were watching today. Janet yellen signaled that the fed has interest in Holding Interest rates to near zero. Yellen is set to testify again today in the senate. Hsbc executives and c. E. O. Will be asked questions about the recent tax evasion revelations and we will bring you to grilling of these executives live and in full starting at 2 15 london time. Gazprom is seeking a u. S. Stamp of approval. They are working on a fresh twoyear authorization to move as much as 2 billion in natural gas to the u. S. , mexico and canada. They might impose additional sanctions on russia. Lets check out whats happening in the markets. First stocks. Yesterday we had some highs. Today we backed off a little bit. Though were not down by much. The ftse is down less than 1 10 of 1 . The dax has backed off a little bit as well. Still north of 11, though after yesterdays highs. I think it is Holding Ground to be honest. These are fairly smufles. Lets have a look at some of the currencies. Yesterday we were talking about currency wars. Janet yellen was down playing the notion that Central Banks around are the world engaging being labeled a currency rating. They were expecting still a big majority for june and it seems as though that has been pushed back. The message hard to decipher what she was saying. Almost like greenspan. I think the message was we have a recovery. We think we need to raise rates at some point but we wont risk it delivering the rate hikes early. Still very, very data dependent. Thats what she is suggesting. Chinas manufacturing rebounded for february. The p. M. I. Number was 501. Lets get more on this from bloombergs tom tom, what is behind the in this hsbc p. M. I. . So i think it was a striking reading. A fourmonth highs, as you mentioned. We came back above the 50 mark improving from deteriorating conditions. At the same time, this time of year you need to pay really close attention to seasonal effects. When you step back from the details, contracting real estate sector in china, global demands which remains pretty lackluster it will be surprising if this reading in the p. M. I. Marks a turningpoint in chinas growth trojectry. Alcoholic it up to seasonal effects and wait for a reading later if the year. I think a reading of 501 which would be stellar but it is actually 50. 1. What does this mean for policy . Youre right. 501 would be awesome and we wouldnt have to discuss policy at all. 50. 1 is a little bit more meet observinger. Last year, the Central Bank Cut Interest Rates. Since then, inflation has fallen so much that real borrowing costs are higher now than they were before the Central Bank Cut rates. If you put that together, monetary conditions uncomfortably tight, real concerns about growth, i think the stage is really set for further monetary easing, probably more Interest Rates to come in the first quarter, second quarter. Tom, lets switch gears. Lets talk about uber. The Company Planning a big hiring spree in china. Right. So i think i think for me this is really an example of how technology has the capacity to solve some of chinas problems even when the government is a little bit slow to press the reform button. It is very hard to find a taxi here in beijing because taxi fares are too low so taxi drivers dont want to get into their cabs. Companies like uber, some chinese apps are doing very well, are stepping in helping solve the problem by offering higher market rates for drivers who are willing to come pick us up. Thank you so much. It was amazing, we were speaking to one of the earlier investors in uber. She said you just have to scale up. This is what they are doing to get market share in china. Go big. Later hsbc. Lets talk about what is happening with Commerce Bank now. It is now in the news again. It is a tax probe that were watching. Lets get details performs lets go to berlin and re jim hans nichols. Guy the commerzbank is being really clear they are participating with this investigation. They have launched their own internal inquirey. Now here is what we know. Frankfurt offices, Law Enforcement have been descending across the country to determine whether there is tax evasion. Germany is taking it very seriously these days. Here is a statement commerzbank put out. They are interested and the investigation is based on old cases dating back 10 years or more. It is important to differentiate. This is about private individuals, not about the Corporate Tax or low tax rates that were put in place by the luxembourg government. 2 Jeanclaude Juncker no confidence. This has to do with germany taking tax a avoidance and shelters very seriously. Hans, thank you so much. The latest on some of these tax rates. M. P. s will be grilling two top hsbc executives on taxes. We will bring you the full coverage that this afternoon. Right. I think stocks are not down by muff. They are off their highs. We went to the Closing Price high on the ftse. Dax backing off a little bit as well but still very much north of the the 11,000 mark. But given where we are and where we have come from and how far we have got, there may be a above it top slicing of those portfolios. What yellen said last night is something were watching carefully. Welcome back. You are watching the pulse live from bloombergs london headquarters. We are talking about greece. Getting more comments from the finance minister. Saying some really interesting things. Laying out exactly what the government will or will not do. Saying the government will not sell assets. This is something we have heard before. They are not going to go back on privatization. He said greece hasnt secured the financing for growth. They will continue to cooperate with the e. U. And the i. M. F. And is giving clues on the fact that they will property tax in 2015 which i imagine means they will get more tax. Some would probably be a good idea. I think it sets with neighbor troika when we think about what greece wants and the Funding Program it is looking for and the potential to bring down current account surplus. Lets get some analysis on this. Good morning, paul. Hi, paul. Does greece have what it needs here . We have a shortterm story. The program continues. It doesnt solve greeces problems. It is just a there was financial pressure that had to be solved. I guess the to use the Nuclear Option which led to disaster. Here we are. In four months we have the same problem again. What happens in four months . It is my understanding they wont see any money until april, or february 25. There is a month in between. Are they going to be able to pay back . I think the deadline is in june, as i understand that will have to be dealt with and then the agreement today is just for a month and then the same problem. Creditor nations still are in the most of denying the problem which will come back. How do you restructure greeces debt without restructuring greeces debt . In the hand of public authorities. Testimonyly it should be easier. Previously it was in private hands. Now it is in public hands which makes it technically easier but politically more difficult. There is a move saying no, we dont

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