Welcome. We are here in london. I am guy johnson and francine is not here. She will be back tomorrow. We start with the bloomberg exclusives. An infusion of fresh cash. The real deadline for greece is june 30 and it is up to greece if they want to stay in the bailout program. Hans nichols is in berlin. The finance minister does not appear to be in a mood for compromise. No. The only way you could see compromise here is if he says now is not the time to have talks on further debt restructuring and may it may be time after june 30. There are so many payments that have to come through and it all the pens on how you look at it. It is either reality or pessimism. You can almost hear the frustration and the words he chooses. The problem has been extended twice and runs through june. If greece wants the remaining funds, a solution must be found. The deadline is the 30th of june. That contradicts what he has been saying and he is hopeful for the deal at the end of the month to unlock some that is in the bill fund to help. The have debt rolling over today. And to come in may, there is the payment and a bigger one in june when greece gets a weaker negotiating position. Elsewhere, he says he will destroy the previous economic improvements. It is hard to be optimistic. You look at yesterday and a three year note is up 2425 on the yield. Guy yes. A little frustrated with greece. Not just frustrated with greece. Talk about the government. He is not exactly happy there. He seems to think that germany she is concerned about germany becoming too strong and he says it could erode the competitiveness in the european union. The problem is that overall europe is in a good Economic Situation and it is in a norm is dynamic of the globalization of the World Economy. It is linked to competitiveness. The conversation tends to be on greece not giving enough to be in the euro zone. That may be true. There is another side. In the public press germans push for closer integration and migration monetary integration. It means abiding by rules set out and that is his line and has been that way for the last almost since 2012. Guy thank you. The german finance minister was not the only minister we were talking to. Jack lew spoke to greece and will hold a meeting. The head of the meeting is peter cook and he sat down with him. Greece needs to get down to the Technical Work of making a list of changes in policy that it is prepared to put in place and work with the institutions to come to a Mutual Understanding of a path forward so they can get out of a cycle of being in one crisis and another. The the rhetoric was not helpful early and i said the signal to both the greek government and to the institutions, as they are now called. Everyone has to tempt down the rhetoric and get to the Technical Work of policies that have three put in place to address it. Obviously, it would be better if the work was done and not over the next six weeks. There is not time. The president will speak. It is not bilateral. Is their economic interest in making grease stay in the eurozone . I think there is no doubt that, if this leads to a crisis like greece leaving the euro it will cause disruption. I have said consistently that no one should think that all of the risk of a change like that is predictable in advance and in even if the contagion is less than 2012 and earlier, it would not be a good thing from the rig for the economy just recovering from a recession to have uncertainty introduced. Guy that was jack lew talking to peter cook about interesting angles coming out on the greece story. We will have more on the interview throughout the day as you watch on bloomberg. Com. Lets carry on the conversation. Mario said it was recovering and continued backing greece. For more on the Market Reaction we have the global economist joining us. Lets start off greece. Wolfgang is clearly running out of patience and has run out of patience with greece. As soon as the dates come up your sense of how close the story now is . There is a big payment due on the 12th and they are running out of money. But a are. In june, it will be the crunch point. It gives us two months before some plan is put in place. There will be financial help from partners. If they dont, they are looking at the edge of the of this and we do not know what is down there. We dont and we have talked about it for the last seven years. The you get a sense from talking that is manageable. I think that is the view. Banks around the world have covered it. The greek problems and the rest of the world are building up to a situation where we can isolate the worst comes to the worst. The kind of quiet the kinds of consequences for the Global Financial systems is not to say that it will not have problems. The core has concerns about the politics and the question in most peoples mind. What do you hear from clients about merkel question mark issue prepared to be the chancellor to push someone out of the eurozone . It is a good stumbling block. I do nothing germany wants to be seen as the one that breaks up the eurozone. It is interesting to discern what politicians are telling us. We are hearing a hardline message and merkel will come along and smooth over some of the rough edges. Guy how to why tease apart market fits around greece and the impact of qe . They are separate stories. Guy they are in the assets. It is primarily qe. Greece is not benefiting from qe. It is out there and what seems to be happening is a classic mechanism going down because of huge amounts of liquidity in the economy. In the event that greece were to go im not sure what would happen. Would it go up or down . Exactly. It changes it from being a fixed Exchange Rate. Exactly right. You will convey history of the Monetary Union and the standards and we have all fallen apart in some way. Without the fiscal and monetary support, the eurozone is different and as he pointed out, the fiscal support is clearly there. If i could bank it out of the system, what would i be left with, in terms of negatives for the european story . Would greece have the negative shadow or with the germans be right in saying that it is not going to be a problem . Im trying to get a sense of what happens afterwards. The numbers are up. Without them, it would not be that different. Sentiment is recovering and in the moment we are in calm waters. Guy ok. We will talk about that later. Stay with us. Peter cook will be back to talk about the oil prices and other things going on in the Global Economy. We are trying to tease out the market effect and all you can say is that we are seeing a curve moving and the greek curve is a weird thing with much of greek debt being held in the private sector. You can see that we have a significant pickup in the yield pricing and people are a little short on the short end of the greek curve. Right. Or what else are we looking at . Vladimir putin is hosting his annual television callin show today. It is a direct line and the president will face in fetid questions on the economy and the ruble. The president will face vetted questions. Last year he fell short of five hours. He has a fair amount of things he needs to talk about. One of which is oil. There is speculation of a slow down in a shield boom leading to a price lets. This is as they meet in paris today and separately, it is 3030 13 30, london time. Accelerating to the fastest level since march. From a year earlier, volkswagen and right now renault got a boost. Vladimir putin will take your calls and you can phone in and ask questions. Ryan chilcote has the number will stop that is up next. A little later, we will look at the outlook on the slow down. Netflix source to a record high. How would Frank Underwood put it . We love viewers more than sharks love blood. Guy welcome back. You are watching the polls. We are on your phone and your desktop. To russia, Vladimir Putin hostess annual callin session today. It will go directly to the leader. The calls pour in for hours and last year, questions from Edward Snowden. What should the russian people be asking Vladimir Putin . Lets bring in ryan. What kind of questions do we expect . You saw the trailer and some of the questions are going to be about the showdown with the west and you see russian fighter jets. The message is a patriotic one that russia will standup for its interests. Last year, the big highlight was Edward Snowden and we can expect phone call from inside crimea. The reality is that what the russians want to hear about is the economy. They are worried about wages and inflation. I think we can expect things that are stagemanaged and he will be ready to speak about that. Guy he is taking a pay cut. I am not sure it is up to last years standards. The idea of the official declaration is to show that russian officials are above board and it is an exercise with Vladimir Putin officially making 150,000 year. He is taking a pay cut and this year, because if you look around russia everyone is teetering on recession and as everyone points out, one was the last time you saw Vladimir Putin do anything. It is a parallel universe of the president paying cash. Guy thank you very much. Ryan chilcote will be with us as we wait for Vladimir Putin. In the next hour, he is going to take the podium at 10 00. It will be interesting to see what questions he gets asked. Peter dixon is still with us. We have seen the economy move over the last 24 hours. There is an expectation that u. S. Drillers will see a greater drop and the flip side of it is the saudis aggressively pumping. What is the outlook . You have the chinese in the mix and the economy is slowing and will slow further. You see the slow in demand and added to the fact, the reduce of the market and it suggests quite some time will remain and, as click sectors by the impacts of this on inflation. We get to the back end of this year and the drop in oil will start to work its way out. It will remain low for quite a. Of time it will remain low for quite a span of time. Can we have higher inflation . What does it mean for the Global Economy . We would expect inflation and the move back towards 1 . That is below central targets and i think, in all circumstances, you have the economy and lower oil prices. Guy nice to see you and thank you for your time. Right, coming up, the ceo founder considers his own exit if labor wins the election. There are circumstances where i would leave, regrettably. It is about time we contemplate read domicile in redom iciling. Guy strong words. You can watch the debate with spencer and other city Business Leaders later today on the politics show at 11 00 a. M. Anna edwards joins me to talk about that. So, it was a right of center panel. Anna you have people in the middle. Guy right of center. We had the response on what it was. Until recently, the treasurer of the conservative body. Guy lots of shock. Tonight the baby seat the bbc has a debate. You will see a number of people behind left turns again. This is the Opposition Leader debate and people want to be in power. Nicholas of the snp will be there, among others. Guy looking forward to that. That is at 11 00. Coming up we will talk about oil. That is up next. We will see you in a moment. Guy welcome back. Youre watching the pulse. Were in london. These are the top headlines. In an exclusive interview wolfeberg ruled out concessions to greece and schaeuble said no concessions. The program runs until june 30 and if greece wants the funds, solution must be found. The year deadline is june 30. Thats the deadline of the program. Guy the u. S. Treasury secretary has been speaking to bloomberg about greece and warned about the uncertainty a exit from the greek euro would create. No doubt if this leads to a crisis such as greece leaving the euro zone, it will cause an enormous amount of disruption and hardship in greece. I have said consistently no one should think all of the risk of a change like that is predictable in advance. And you know even if the contagion risk is much less now than it was, say 2012 and earlier, it would not be a good thing in a World Economy just recovering from a deep recession to have that kind of uncertainty introduced. Guy the greece casting a shadow over europe at the moment. There is some good news european car growth sales accelerated in march and the European Automobile Manufacture Association said rental station climbed to 1. 6 million cars. The match gain was the biggest in at least a year. From cars to crude, seems like a logical progression, saudi arabia pumped close to a record amount of oil last month. The country is leading the biggest boom in opec output in almost four years. Lets talk about this some more and bring in the International Agency chief oil analyst antoine huff in paris for the International Oil summit and also the commodities editor, tim colter. For the first question, yesterday the oil price jumped and the only reason i would see it would jump is the fact you guys said were seeing an downgrading in output from u. S. Rigs. Are you surprised by that . Antoine no, the market has been looking for reasons to be bullish. Any time theres a sign the production is growing down in north dakota, theres been a blip in prices upwards. The fundamentals remain bearish now. Theyve seen supply, supply growth was very dramatic in march and went up one million in february and tremendously up from last year. Demand looks like theres signs of strength in some areas, some pockets of the markets but its hard to say theres a Strong Demand to the low price. Guy tim, its a fairly bearish picture, you see what the saudis did and what the g. C. C. Producers are doing at the moment theres no sense in fact the opposite, they are in any mood to see the oil price go up at the moment. Tim have we reached a turning point, seems hard to believe that we have. The number of saudi production was pretty surprising, big increase in saudi production last month. Im not sure i entirely understand why and well see what is to come from that. But still, u. S. Production is still on the rise and will continue to be. And you know, the interesting thing is that the as the price recovers its just going to mean more supply. The producers have been actively selling futures contracts in the months ahead to lock in a price that they can live with. Guy antoine, tim is quite confused why were seeing the pickup in saudi output. Can you give us any underlying sort of idea what is going on here . Antoine i think the saudis made it clear they want to defend the market share. Their share of the market has declined recently in the last year, so they really want to support the market share, defend the market share, expand it, in the face of rising production from north america which is slowing because of the ending cuts and there is the prospect of iran possibly coming back to the market. Theres an effort here to stake out a claim to the market, the market share and prepare for what might be the need to manage irans return to higher level of exports. Tim is this a return to 1996 or 1998 when we saw big increases in saudi production the early days of that . Antoine, do you think . Antoine its not 1986 but closer to 1998 if youd like but you cant compare that situation to 1998 because so much has changed in the market. Like i told you, theres a new source of supply that did not exist in 1998. Thats where most of the growth is expected to come from outside of opec. This is a type of supply that has very different economics from conventional oil. Demand also is very different and theres much more natural gas competing with oil in the market including transportation and more renewables and its a very different set of circumstances. But youre right, the saudis are increasing production and were now facing a situation of rebalancing and reshifting of market share among producers. Tim should we be concerned about that . Weve seen libyan production sort of recovering as well. Antoine . Antoine libyan production has been doing surprisingly well given the situation the country is in. Iraqi production has been increasing in view of the challenge the collapse has boasted the country and Islamic State insurgency or campaign. Yes, theres production increases for many quarters but many areas where production is at risk. Guy tim, how do you see the saudis viewing the return of iran . How will they play it . Will they offset against it . Do we understand at this point how much crude could come from tehran . What are the parameters of this . Tim its a hard question to know. One thing opec has always struggled with is how to allocate production among its members. And you know, the whenever opec production declines in one nation the saudis always stepped in and took their share. So the iranians are coming back to the table and want to participate in the market. And you know its going to be hard to see how riyadh is going to let them in. Guy is that your view as well, do you think riyadh will struggle to let iran back in the oil market . There will be an awful lot of supply knocking around if they dont. Antoine its not just an issue for riyadh but the market as a whole. Theres questions how quickly iran could come back and our view is it sanctions were to be lifted, which is a big if we dont know what the outcome of the negotiations would be. But if the sanctions were to be lifted, iran would probably be able to increase production from existing fields fairly quickly in a matter of a few months. Theres also quite a bit of oil in storage, about 30 Million Barrels in floating storage kept by iran which could be released to the market almost immediately. Now, expanding Production Capacity bars the current capacity iran would require bringing in investors setting a new framework for investment and that would be a longer term prospect. Guy well leave it there, Antoine Halff from the International Agency in paris and bloombergs Energy Editor tim colter joining me in the studio. Coming up well hear from jack lew on the currency strength. That story up next