Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20160128

Securities unit posted a loss in the Fourth Quarter with each of the business is reporting a slump in revenue. The bank posted a net loss of 6. 8 billion euros for 2015. Dont miss our interview with the cfo at noon u. K. Time. Federal reserve chair janet yellen and her colleagues have opened the door to a change in our outlook for the u. S. Economy this year and possibly a slower pace of Interest Rate hikes. It is closely monitoring Global Economic and financial developments while assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation. Facebook shares soared and extended trade after delivering another quarter of record revenue. Fourthquarter sales and profit billionimates at 1. 6 users logged on every mod. 80 of revenue came from mobile devices as facebook continues to sell targeted ads across the spectrum using video. Video is an important part of the facebook experience. And continue to invest here is important for a lot of people to share some of the most engaging content. We continue to make progress and now 100 million hours of video are watched daily on facebook. Nejra global news, 24 hours a day powered by a 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Lets check in on markets. We are one hour to the trading session. Lets have a look at how stocks are going to the china composite, we were talking about it on, down 3 . Overshadowed the biggest cash injection and three years in china. European stocks opened a day lowe. Then they were gaining, now they are flat. Now testing some of the market moves. , want to show you eurodollar on the back of the fed statement. It seems euro investors have to weigh in the fact that it is a haven but at the same time the hast that mario draghi promise to do more pretty busy pounddollar lets get straight to guy johnson on the phone from frankfurt for Deutsche Banks press conference. Great to have you on the phone. You are speaking to the cfo later on. What did we learn today from Deutsche Bank . Bank is investment definitely struggling. We knew this because the bank had already prereleased some of the numbers but today we got details. Every single Main Division within the ibank is struggling right now. Including some of the real stallworths. Areas like fixedincome. So, that is the key question now, is what happens to turn those divisions around . Avoides john cryan getting rid of the good with the bad . He needs to cut this bank back but he needs to make sure he hangs onto the revenue story from here. Cane can do that, maybe he avoid raising capital. He says he can do that today but the market is questioning whether that is going to be the case. Guy he has been in charge since july. Francine he is trading back trading activities to bolster return. How much time will investors give him . Guy not much. The shares were down when the bank prereleased. They are down again today. He has only been in the job six months but he has a very longterm plan in front of him. But if market turbulence is to carry on as it is at the moment, there are going to be some tricky decisions that will made in 2016, including the prospects of a sale or ipo. It is onis saying schedule for 2016 but people believe it will be pushed into 2017. That will be a big blow for the timeframe and won the market will be watching very carefully for the moment. I think essentially what Deutsche Banks got to learn to live with and this is something that will take a little while, its got to learn to taking leraarn to live with taking less risk. It is down to levels we have not seen before. That is why the ibank is not performing. How does he get revenue performing to make sure he does not have to raise capital . Francine thank you so much. We will have a great interview with guy and the cfo at midday. With marcus schenck. At 7 00 a. M. In your. In new york. Its closelyd monitoring global and economic and financial developments while assessing the implications for inflation. Here is what some leading voices told us about the path ahead. There is a concern that inflation is not going to get back to the 2 goal. They said they started to move because they saw that they were confident it would get there. What we have seen and changes in marketbased expectations that have come down and the longer rates, the markets are not so sure about that. That might slow them from moving forward. They change their balance of risk assessment. They did it in a novel way but basically not saying anything about it at all and shifting the language from having a view on the balance of risk to just reminding us that they are going to look at all these things and that is going to impact their balance of risk. Wein terms of the fed path, think it is going to be more aggressive in july, august, september but not so much in the first part of 2016. I think the fed is taking a longer view in terms of inflation. Francine now lets introduce our guest for the first part of the show. He is howard shore chairman of shore capital. Howard, great to have you on the program. What do you make of the fed statement yesterday . The markets believed to ratings the fed was suggesting four. So, someone was wrong. Is not surprising with the global uncertainty, the weakening chinese economy, stock markets and relative turmoil. You would not expect the fed to adopt an aggressive position. Etwould be surprised if we g more than two Interest Rate rises this year. And it would not shock me if we got none. Francine this is because the state of the world is much worse and we think . If you look at turmoil and the markets, half the people in your chair say forget about that. That is markets, they are just nervous. The other half say, we have to listen because they preempt something bad in the world happening. Howard stock markets are often good predictors. We have got to look at underlying reduction and wealth over the last 1224 months. That would needs to feed through the system that needs to feed to the system. Reduction. Een wealth people now needing to redeem assets to provide liquidity. And the world is nervous. Be surprised of the American Economy does not grow more slowly than people hoped. Francine is it a liquidity trap and Financial System which would lead the fed not to hike at all possible this year . Concerned more about inflation and the specter of deflation as Oil Prices Continue to slide, having a concern for central banks. Howard im concerned about the fact that the chinese economy actually rescued growth and the rest of the world post the lehman crisis. Now we know that is an unstable situation where the reduction in the stock market has got to feed through the system in china and you would expect chinese growth to be lower than people hoped. Francine how much lower . Are we talking about a hardline anding . Howard depends on your definition of a hard landing. I think it is going to be a tricky situation. The banks need to do leverage and they need to take some losses. And it depends how clever they are in doing that. Normally the chinese work things out well. It might well take some time. A relatively hard landing, not a hard landing in the conventional sense because i still expect some growth. Francine are you expecting some kind of financial crisis . We saw huge liquidity injection and china. Stocks are still down. It is not doing much. Banks im expecting the to have to take big writeoffs. The quicker they do it, the better. We saw that in japan in the early 1990s. They were slow to do it and that had very adverse consequences. Francine think you so much. Howard shore stays with us for half an hour. We will talk about brexit and be talking about emerging markets. Is the e. U. Holding up britains small businesses. Thealk brexut it and european economy next. It is sunny and the city of london. Back in two. Francine we are getting breaking news out of iran. President rouhani is in paris. He was in italy earlier this week. Partsnian car company signed a joint venture to build cars in iran. It is extreme importance of five local players because to find local players because you want to build cars in ther region. We will have plenty more on that shortly. First lets get to the bloombergs newsflash. M has reported fourthquarter earnings that missed analysts estimate. Three profit fell in the months through november. As the clothing retailers margin suffered through the strength of the dollar. Shares declined in four months after reported a full profit that missed analysts estimate. Earnings excluding some items were 13. 49 francs per share for the year. Earnings before interest and tax rose 2 on an organic basis in the six months to the end of 2015. That is the Worlds Largest distiller posted larger than expected sales and gained market share in europe. Francine we are just a few minutes away from u. K. Gdp data. Forecaster show the economy grew. 5 in the final three much of 2015. What could a brexit mean to the u. K. . For more on all this we are joined by our u. K. Government reporter and still with us howard shores. I have got my tongue in a twist, this brexit. What do we think about timing, how crucial is timing . The first, what we think is that is going to be june 23. Their whole bunch of ifs. Francine because of football. It is for football. There is a match on the 16th. You cant do it much after the 23rd, because Scottish School holiday circuit the things that define politics are often not much to do with politics. So, basically if you want to do it on a thursday in june, which we think number 10 do, than the 23rd is the date. Now, the big if to get to that is can cameron did something he can sell as a deal at next months european summit . Number 10 seem to be fairly confident they will. No one is steering is away from that. Cameron is off to brussels tomorrow unexpected way. Hes canceled a nordic trip. Instead he is going to brussels to see jeanclaude juncker. We dont know why. Is that some kind of, does that mean a deal is close, is receding . Number 10 wont tell us. Francine i will ask howard how you model list but what are the chances of the u. K. Leaving the e. U. . I heard everything from 5050 to people saying that itll be more like 2080. I do not think the vote will be as wide as 2080 or as close as the scottish vote 5545. The mainstream forecast seems to be that britain will stay in. Why do we think that . Because of the moments are 5050 the polls at the moment are 5050 but a third of the country have not engaged with the question. And the expectation is that those people would break for the status go. Francine how do you model this . Do you stay away from ftse companies for the moment . Howard i think there will be some shortterm impacts and shortterm volatility. Im sure that if there was pressure in the markets, the bank of england would put in extra liquidity. But i think it is relatively shortterm because if we voted to leave, immediately, not that much would change. Then wed do a deal. Francine is it pound positive for pound negative . Howard if we leave, in the short term the pound is likely to weaken. Nevertheless, we should consider the impact of this over the next 2030 years not the next 20 or 30 months. Francine it seems that at the moment we are still in waitandsee mode. It will depend on who the face of exiting the e. U. Becomes, who they put forward. Who are the contenders and how does that play into how you and i will vote . Rob that is on the out campaign out campaigns, because their arrival out campaigns. Campaign thinks the face should be nigel hes the face of leaving the e. U. For most people. There is a rival campaign that says on no account should the face be nigel. Nigel gets 20 of the electorate and alienates another vote foray they wont anything he is on the same side as. What they would like is james dyson. A big, plausible business figure. Somebody they can say, 70 who is outside politics. Or force johnson. I do not think they are going to get boris. At the moment, it is tricky. They keep saying they have names and private. In private. Francine howard, how do you view this . . Have you made up your mind how youre going to go . Howard i have always been skeptical of the e. U. Because the amount of regulation. I think we will stay because i think the Prime Minister will come back with the deal which he will recommend to the british public. I think that people will go with the recommendation of the government. So, my expectation is we will stay but i also think that, ive always held the view that over, till three decades, we would be better off out. Of course, if we are going to stay, we might as so get the best possible deal we can. Games event on monday where the Different Countries sat round the table and pretended they were in renegotiating britains membership. In the morning we attended to renegotiate and that was terrible in the afternoon, over as the took british Prime Minister and attempted to negotiate britains exit. What was fascinating is how difficult it is to say what things would look like. But immediately, he put on the table britain will continue paying into the e. U. Budget. Francine the point . Whats the point . Rob we got to will britain allow continue of freedom of movement for e. U. Citizens. This is not how out is selling out. Their big problem is explaining what would out look like. Howard i do not agree at all because it is more catastrophic for the germans for us to leave. We worry about our position if we leave not thinking about the other peoples position. It is inconceivable that angela mondaywakes up on morning and tells german exporters, by the way britain are leaving and we do not have a trade agreement. Its nonsense. Rob but it is not up to angela merkel. The deal would be agreed on qmv. You have 28 countries. Howard summary has to pickup the bill. It is not the way real politics works in practice. Francine hopefully will have a referendum date very soon. Well be talking about emerging markets and oil next. Coming up, japans economy minister steps down over allegations of financial impropriety. More on that next. Francine welcome back to the pulse. Japans finance minister akira amari has announced he is resigning over a scandal. Lets get straight to our managing editor for japan. How big of a surprise was this . He started the News Conference in the last hour fending off allegations of financial misconduct but still residing. Thats exactly right. It was quite a shock. He spoke for more than 30 minutes in a spirited defense of himself. Shooting down all the allegations or trying to explain them or shirking them off. And all indications were that he was going to stand pat, fight his way through this whole thing and then suddenly at a the third minute, he said, i need to take responsibility and im going to step down. The question is who is going to replace him and how that impacts abe. Francine he was on my panel in davos on saturday. He was one of the key architects of abenomics. Does this hurt the Prime Minister . I think, you can look at it from either you can say that, yes, this does create a hole in his cap in it. He was not only important as the architect of tpp but very close to abe. In that sense, yes. On the other hand, you can say he came out and defend himself or 30 minutes and even so he stepped down due to loyalty to abe. He did not want to create problems for the Prime Minister and he did it before the day before the Budget Committee is supposed to begin tomorrow deliberations on the National Budget vital to the economy. You can spin it that this shows cabinets commitment to getting things done for the economy. In that sense, it would probably not hurt mr. Abe. Francine howard, how do you view this . Boj. It is tough because everything in the Macro Economy is working against abenomics at the moment. Howard all this week, they would love to have a bit of inflation. It is difficult when the world is slowing down. They are doing their best. They had structural problems for so long. Not really addressing the structural problems. They are using macro economics and Monetary Policy to try and stimulate the economy but theyre not making the structural changes they need to make. Francine very good point. Listen to, howard, japan. The u. K. Gdp for the last quarter of last year. And we speak to the chairman of an italian industrial group. The only way to get better is to challenge yourself, and thats what were doing at xfinity. We are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Francine welcome to the pulse. We are just getting breaking news u. K. Gdp bang in line with estimates. Lets get straight to mark martin. Mark the economy is gaining a little momentum at the end of last year, thanks entirely too no surprises the services sector. Rose. 5 from the previous three months, bang in line with economists estimates. Expanded for 12 consecutive quarters and employment is at the lowest level in a decade. Policymakers here are focusing on the global risks to the british economy, something they are likely to enunciate at next weeks meeting. Closely as said as last week that pressures need to pick up to justify the benchmark rising from a record low. 5 , where it has been since march 2009. Some economists see borrowing costs staying over for another year the economy grew by 1. 9 in the Fourth Quarter from a year earlier, which is the slowest annual rate since the start of 2013. Todays figures basically underline the economies continued reliance on consumers that a fitting from rising employment, falling oil prices, and real wage growth which accounts for roughly 80 of gdp. With businesses and finance leading the way, Industrial Production fell by. 2 , then you factoring unchanged. Construction output fell by. 1 . The economy grew. 5 in the Fourth Quarter it is all down to the domestic economy. Francine thank you so much. Mark barton with your asset check. Ftse getting 0. 1 . Lets get to the first worked with nara change. Nejra thanks. Deutsche bank posted a loss in the Fourth Quarter with each business reporting a slump in revenue. Overall they posted a net loss of 6. 8 billion euros, its first annual loss since 2008. And dont miss our interview with the Deutsche Bank ceo at noon. Resignseconomy minister after a week of fending off allegations of financial impropriety. First minister to resign since 2012 and was a key engineer of the abenomics program. Spanish unemployment has fallen to its lowest level in five years. Overall it dropped to just below 21 , giving a boost to mariano rajoy. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high at 46 . Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. Francine . Francine thank you. Nara change with the very latest. Our next guest, the chairman of the Italian Holding company that is a Controlling Shareholder with a mediaty stake in the i company. He recently launched a new aimed at midsized companies. He gives us his take on the health of the european and Italian Economy in a bloomberg exclusive. Thank you for coming in. Youre a great person to speak to because you are exposed to the real economy and have three distinct parts in your business. Which of these three businesses is doing better . Probably they Health Care Business is the one doing better right now. Ons basically leveraging structural change taking place with the aging of the italian population, which is quite a certainty despite what could happen to the economy. We have created this company 12 years ago and have been riding that growth in the market its a consolidation plane, very fragmented. Thats doing fairly well. The automotive business has done pretty well in terms of top line last year. The Global Automotive production was good. Pickup in europe was very strong in the u. S. And weeak in latin america, with continued strength in asia. The Media Business is really a costcutting type of play, because unfortunately the headwinds are against us in terms of the changing way in which people use media. But we have managed to continue to generate results of strong cash flows. Francine a car parts business is one of the most exposed internationally. You are mentioning weakness in latin america what do you make of the currency market turmoil we see in china and a lot of emergingmarket economies . Are you less confident about the strength of the World Economy . I think there are a lot of uncertainties today in. The World Economy there are a lot of countries you mentioned brazil which are going through a rough time. Brazil in the last two years had a dreadful performance. This year is not much better. A lot of attention is given to the slowdown in china francine too much . Maybe. 9 gdp growth is not that bad, and if you think of the size of the economy today, it would equal 12 five years ago in terms of the real numbers, the real growth created. Thats not too bad and there is a lot of anxiety about that and how reliable those numbers are. For the time being, hard data dont show it. Francine do you believe the Italian Economy has put in the Structural Reforms needed . 12 months ago we were talking about possible brexit, grexit. Now we worry about brexit and the refugee crisis, but it feels like its better placed, and yet there is underlying concern. I think italy has done a lot in the last 18 months. Minister kickime started a season of reforms that we have been talking for the last 20 years and no one ever started to address them. I think some important things were done labor law reform, constitutional reform. I think we are seeing the beginning of some signs of a better economy. Our Economic Performance in italy has been very, very weak over the last five or six years. In the last few quarters, we have seen a reversal. Its very mild for the time being, but at least its a change. More has to be done, and sometimes one would like the government to be more daring and more courageous, because we are not done yet, and we have a very high debt to gdp ratio and still a number of structural issues that need to be addressed. I hope the government will be Strong Enough to go full steam ahead and be very daring. Francine there is also speculation that your ceo has have youhed talked to her about it . Obviously. Levy put it this way. For been working with her the last eight years and she has done a terrific job in the last two years, and she was appointed ceo. I have an enormous respect for relationship, and i really hope that she will decide to stay with us. The fact that the Largest Service company in italy thinks of her as a possible ceo is i think a testament to her quality and to her strength. We are pleased to have such an outstanding francine it is a great testament to what she has achieved. You manageense for small companies. What is the attractiveness . Big banking ceos are not lending as much as they could. We have started with a very mine and myof partner we were in Asset Management Company Based in geneva at 1. 2 billion swiss franks today. We believe that there is an opportunity today in the Asset Management sector to the extent that you try to focus on themes in which you believe, and then create out of those themes and on those things Investment Products that could be appealing to the market. One of the big themes well, two. The process of determination of credit in europe. Countries, most close to 90 go through the banking system. This number is much lower in the u. S. Trend is that because of capital constraints that banks are working under, they are retrenching from lending to that sector of the economy. I think there is an opportunity for alternative lenders, nonbanking lenders, to really deploy assets. That comes the second theme, just the quest for yield. With very low Interest Rates we have had for a long time and presumably will have for quite some time, investors are desperately looking for deals and they dont find it in liquid instruments. I think their willingness to thaty capital on assets offer a very attractive riskreturn profile is there. We team up with a very talented team here in london on the three hills capital, and we have launched their second fund. Francine how do you identify the companies you want to be part of . Is it sector, does it depend on who is running them, or is it this is private equity investing in debt as opposed to the equity. It is really a matter of picking which is aompanies, mix of criteria, the sector management, historic performance iswhat we are providing Development Capital to those companies that are interested in growing their business, where there is an entrepreneur that believes in the company. We are providing that mediumterm capital in banks or other sources of capital in a way which is flexible for the company. I think we are in a killing source of capital for companies and at the same time we believe we are creating an asset class which is attractive to investors because of the risk reward profile. Francine thank you so much for coming on. You will have to come back and give us an update. A bloomberg exclusive. Facebooks ke up next, investors like facebooks new numbers. Francine welcome back to the pulse, live from london. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash with nejra cehic. Nejra thank you. Of 2. 9irment charge billion euros for 2015 after group prices collapsed. Banes Largest Oil Company says it will lead to a loss of 1. 2 billion euros for the year. The venture with iran produced 100,000 vehicles per year, starting in late 2017, with output eventually doubling. The french carmaker says this is the First Industrial accord signed by a western Company Since economics sanctions on iran were lifted. H m missed analyst estimates. Pretax profits fell 839 million in the three months from november. Weatherably mild countries like germany also contributed to the weaker performance. After Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you. Theyre a change with the need to know. Up despite the continued expansion of euro stockpiles exacerbating the glut. Brian, tell us about the data. Investors are trying to find a bottom will they . Will, they are finding a debt. There are 490 5 Million Barrels of oil in u. S. Stockpiles, the third weekly gain we have seen, a record amount. They had been studying how much they have and that is the statistical arm of the department for 34 years. This is a record number. We were just shy of this number in april of last year, and then we saw stockpiles start to decline but they came right back. The reality is that they have been hit in the United States but production remains very robust. The glut continues. Francine the pressure is when will they cut production, right . Saudi arabia has said it will yesterday we cant trust that. Minister was holding an annual meeting and was shouldthings they discuss cooperating with other countries like saudi arabia to cut . The reality is and i can tell you this on Good Authority is that the russians dont believe the saudis are being genuine when they suggest they should collaborate. The reality is that the russians think the saudis are out to get them, want to take market share. They will cooperate with them. And the oil price has fallen but we have seen russian production continue to rise, and they are the Biggest Oil Producers in the world. Francine consolidation proving to take over . Absolutely. 83 of the shareholders backed the takeover today. Theyre going to turn to the matter in the next couple hours. The pressure is on them to prove that this is a good idea. They expect to maintain or even increase the dividend, and he will turn the stock price around shares have fallen by about one third since last year, whereas exxon fell 10 . Francine thank you so much. Ryan chilcote with the latest. Up next, investors like facebooks new status with the surgeon premarket trading following a record Fourth Quarter. We will break down the numbers next. Francine welcome back. Shares are up in premarket trading after the social media giant posted another record quarter. Caroline is here to go through the numbers impressive fourthquarter results. Caroline stellar. Sales up 52 for facebook, killing it on the profit front, more than doubling of their profits. More than 1 billion for the first time ever, up to 1. 56 billion. Ad revenue pulling it in terms of mobile devices. 80 of their advertising is now via mobile. Unlike google and yahoo , which cant charge quite as much from ads, facebook charges more because it is on the newsfeed. They are also seeing videos pick up they are focused on video and mobile and the fact that they now have 100 million hours per day of video streaming is phenomenal and it keeps being expected. Francine you cant really fault facebook on their Business Model what is in store for the future . Caroline its not just facebook that people use, it is the acquisitions they have made, the amount of people using them. They started advertising on instagram for the first time and we saw 98 of their major clients advertising on instagram as well as on facebook. In isy they can bring mutually beneficial relationships. But what about monetizing whatsapp . Se to one billion users they already have businesses talking, celebrities, and the question is when is it monetized . When is there messaging app start to reap rewards . Every moment we are hearing Mark Zuckerberg largely talk about the ai side of things, about the investment in emerging markets, and investment in virtual reality. Theres really low hanging fruit for the Investor Base right now, those other social media platforms, and how they can start to rake in billions as well as they do from facebook and instagram. Costs are still going to go up they are still investing in r d. We expected to jump in the next quarter, a bit of a relief. Its all about data centers this quarter, a company doing exactly what it has promised. Bring in the users, get up another people using it, and rake in the money. Francine caroline, thank you. Lets check in on the markets with mark barton following last nights the decision. It seems we are seeing quite a lot of volatility, and china ended the day lower. Mark the fed acknowledged global risks, which seems to many to indicate that there would be a fed rate hike in march because the odds of a hike have come down a couple days ago. I want to start with the shanghai composite, falling for a third consecutive day since november, 2014. ,his is the year to date chart the most since 2008, authorities pumping billions and billions of yuan into the economy to stabilize the markets. This is whats happening to emergingmarket stocks rising investors stepping up that the fed will refrain from raising rates. This is the jpmorgan currency index, which only a week ago fell to a record low and rebounded since the index has been decimated. There are concerns that the fed will raise Interest Rates. H m shares are falling, feeling the effects of the strong dollar, which is raising garment costs. Unusually warm winter season prompted it to offer discount. Francine mark, thank you so much. With bloomberg plenty coming up, including our interview with the Deutsche Bank cfo at midday london time. Heres the data to watch in the day ahead. Consumer confidence is out shortly. We have plenty more on surveillance, when i am joined by tom keene in new york. We will see you in a couple minutes. Francine on entering volatility. The fed statement fuels concern about a weakening global economy. China shares slide and europe had slower. Deutsche bank slump. The Company Reports a loss in its Securities Unit from each of its businesses. We will speak to the cfo later today. A and japans economy minister steps down. Good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom, we just have the announcement that the Prime Minister has named nobotiru ishihara,