It is the end of the quarter. Thursday, i am ahead of myself. It is job state. This is what the markets are looking like. We had a bit of a reversal. European stocks down to 1. 1 . Asian stocks still higher but on the day a little bit lower. You can see crude, 38. 8. That is putting a lot of pressure coming from the Mining Sector at eurodollar, the week in terms of dollar weakness. I want to show you copper because it is down a touch. We are getting some breaking news. Chinese data, lets get straight to bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. Nejra britain might vote to leave the union to help keep Consumer Confidence at the lower level lowest level in more than a year. A gauge of expectation for the Economic Situation over the next year was at 12, down 18 points from year ago. Blackrock is planning to cut 400 jobs in what may be the biggest round of layoffs today at the Worlds Largest money manager. 2 duction are equal to 23 . To the percent. 3 . E are expected to to donald trump has come under fire for saying there will have to be some sort of punishment for women who have abortions. That immediately angered proabortion supporters. Trump later issued to statements clarifying his position, alternately it would be saying it would be the a doctor who should be held responsible. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. You can find more stories on the bloomberg at top. Francine. Francine clarifying the position. That is what they call it now. Sometimes they call it flipflopping. Eurozone inflation data from march is due in just under an hour. Prices are expected to follow , posing more problems for mario draghi. Our Central Banks editor paul jordan judges from frank for it. T joins us from frankfurt joins us from frankfurt. Paul it doesnt matter if you get 0. 1 . Is euroro area area, these numbers are still way short of the just under 2 mediumterm inflation goal. Policymakers decided to ramp up stimulus. That kicks in in terms of the actual purchases on friday. Two banks coming through in june. There is a long way to go. Francine their latest round of qe stimulus does not work. What is next . Question. Ry big one that is been asked quite a lot did policymakers have a lot here and policymakers have noted there is no more room for Interest Rates. Asset purchases, 80 billion euros a month is a pretty big number. That suggests you really got to watch or the start to suck up the euro area bond market liquidity, even by adding Corporate Bonds into the mix. The ecb says there are plenty out there. More economists are a bit more skeptical. Banks could be played paid to be paid to take money from the ecb. If that works, there is scoped to take that further. Ecb is confident. It says it can do more. Not everyone out there shares their optimism. Francine that is humbly the most probably the most diplomatic way of putting it. For me for the first half hour is Derek Halpenny. Derek, great to have you on the program. It is been quite a week. We are getting inflation figures. How much more pressure issue putting on draghi to put the to do more . Derek that is one element of the implications of what yellen spoken about. I think also you have to take it the beginning of the year, the markets were bracing themselves for the fed to tighten in march. What they have done is eased Monetary Policy through for the guidance in terms of cutting the dots. At the press conference and in new york this week. Weve had a substantial easing of policy compared to at the beginning of the year when the markets thought there was going to be a rate increase. That is a big change. The implications of that could be positive for europe. How that plays out is questionable. Commodity prices were to hold up better because the dollar doesnt strengthen. If equity markets held up in general as capital improves, economic are favorable. They are trying to limit the risks of china becoming unstable once again. Trying to help on that side through conditions that may be more conducive to stabilizing dollar. We need to see how this plays out. I think the fed easing policy is important. Francine our ecb editor was putting out there all of critics saying qe in europe is not working. It is getting worse. The risk of disinflation. How do you . Disinflation . How do you tackle disinflation . In europeeen weaker than the united states. The economy is much larger in europe than the united states. Europe has a much more difficult problem at hand. I would kind of caution we do should not play we should not play too much into these nearterm inflation meetings. The ecb has not responded in part because what they knew what was coming. Further out, you could argue even though europe has drifted higher, the broader commodity improving theis potential outlook for a jump in the second half of the year to guess year. These shorterterm year. The shorterterm figures just the beginning of the policy response. Francine breaking news, the china enterprising index is entering the bull market at the close. It is gaining 20 . The problem is turmoil. It is down 20 very quickly and up 20 very quickly. Janet yellen was saying we need Financial Markets to be more stable. Derek we do. The shanghai comp said is well underpriced the shanghai comp is it is well underpriced. Capital outflows from china are week celebrating. There has been some easing of that. There has been capital control. Nonetheless, it is helping to improve confidence or reduce the fears about a hard landing in china. Francine are you not concerned about Central Banks . It is a catch22, because usually in the past, it was markets following Central Banks, not the other way around. Derek to be honest, i still question whether this broader improvement of risk since february is a sustainable. Especially in some of the commodity space. I cant really fathom that to be honest. The demand story does not appear to have changed. The move in Commodity Prices seems to be on hope rather than evidence. I think there is a good chance we are going to seek reversal on some of what is happened. Concern ife of some that becomes disorderly again. Francine derek, thanks for helping me. He stays with us. We will be talking more by china. Stay with a pulse. A roller coaster quarter comes to a close. We have winners and losers. We break down u. K. Growth figures. Apples new phone arrives. What are the security concerns . s dovish janet yellen speech sent the dollar toward the worst months since 2010 good what has the 2010. What has the First Quarter been like . I will get to the chart in just a second. Showing that vcr to show the performance of the major currencies this quarter. The best performer this quarter in terms of the majors has been thats has been the zillion real. The brazilian real it Gains Momentum and speculation grows that a change in government could be the best hope to ending the worst recession in a century in brazil. Brazil outperforming. Underperforming is the pound. He worstperforming major concert major currency against the dollar. I want to see this chart this is my chart of the hour, showing the pound is suffering its deepest quarterly loss since 2009. We are talking about it on a trade weighted aces. Basis. Sterling has dropped 5 of this september. Ll 6. 4 in this is according to a Deutsche Bank measure. The currency will slide the most among its peers in the next three months. This is about concerns over a potential brexit. We are approaching the june 23 referendum in the u. K. In the u. K. Josh would increase those bearish bets. It might increase the risk of a brexit. I want to talk to you about the risk of the volatility as well. Look at threemonth volatility it we will get into that referendum in less than three months time. Seeing this big spike here in the wake of those brussels attacks. Francine nejra cehic with some of the volatility we saw linked to those brexit concerns. The best and worst movers in the last three months. Lets ring in Derek Halpenny. Derek, when you look at quarter one. It was ugly for europe. The biggest market move, volatility is more present on currency markets could is it that markets here it is that right . Markets. Is that right . Derek the low and turning points were only 11 for february. It was risk off. Yellensthe day after testimony to congress. The first indication that the march rate hike might not happen. She did not telegraph it. The markets went back into risk on. We have seen the reversal in sentiment. It is been borne out broadly. It has been volatile, but markets are beginning to fragment more. In terms of there are specific stories, specific currencies that is resulting in bigger moves. It was a sentiment that every thing is correlated to oil. It is unclear exactly why. We did have a dollar play. I think people are more sophisticated. The brazilian real is the bestperforming currency. That is a political story. , the aussie outperformed and did very well. Zealand dollar for example has recovered as well but has underperformed. There you have the rb and said rbn z. They put out the report outlining the concerns in regard to deflation becoming ingrained in the economy through lower wages. I think theres a chance you could see a divergence between aussie and kiwi going forward. Francine what happens to eurodollar . People are pricing in easing from janet yellen. Derek because of the stats from yellen, were pretty much revised eurodollar forecasts. We are higher across the board by five big figures. 110 andhe range between 115 existing through until the possible rate increase in june. Theng softer and lower in second half. The idea of policy and strong divergent play, im am not convinced on that anymore. The slightest instability and Financial Markets and yellen will grab the opportunity to remain dovish and try. Francine instability that would come from where . China . Derek brexit will become a big issue. I agree with what was just said. A big risk. As i mentioned in the last segment, this commodity price sentiment ineneral emerging markets, i question you about sustainable. I think the negative macro fallout from what is a monumental commodity price crash , has that played out fully . I am not convinced it has. Even though there has been a big devaluation and emf as, i would argue there is some potential for that instability to come back. Francine what happens to the yen . E has given it his best shot it has not worked out yet. Derek something i highlight today is the unprecedented selling of Japanese Equities from foreign investors. ¥7 trillion over the last 12 weeks. The largest most sustained prudent selling since economics came into existence in 2012. The strength of the yen is part of the story, but i think there is a broader concern among investors about this whole economics project. That is potential serious implications. If there was a real unraveling of that, it could see some further yen gains. Francine derek, think you so much. Thank you so much. The worst performers in the quarter. Derek halpenny from mitsubishi. Lucas to ride. Roller coaster ride. China enters the bull market. Much more china, that is coming up next. Francine welcome back. It is the pulse. Lets get to bloombergs business flash with nejra cehic. Nejra orange is heading into a make or break weekend as they try to salvage their plan after Technology Talks have not advanced sufficiently to clinch a deal today. They will meet again before the end of sunday after a final negotiating push. Shares of both companies are trading lower. Money management icon mark mobius is stepping down from daytoday management of the emerging markets group. Mobius who popularized emerging market investing remain will remain chairman of the business. We had the emerging markets group. We had a local Asset Management group. Many of the companies countries, what were doing is combining them and bring them into one big group so we can use resources more effectively. Im moving up to serve as an overseer role. Nejra David Cameron is chairing talks later on the prospect of huge job losses in the steel industry. After losses left the almost zero value. Steel prices have plunged the lowest in a decade. That is your Bloomberg Business atsh. Francine it is been it has been a rocky quarter. The market looking like it will end on a positive note. Index entered a bull market. The best game since 2009. Gain since 2009. Think you for sticking around. We will get the correlation between executive market. The hang seng not doing bad at all. If you look at the Japanese Equities, you were talking about the outflows good outflows. Derek the fact that the yen has strengthened so significantly. There is a greater uncertainty in regards to economics project. How it how that is going to unfold. The fact that the boj went into negative Interest Rates signaling to the markets that their ammunition is running out. That is questioning the whole project. Is been 7 trillion outflows from Japanese Equities. Francine in the last quarter . Derek since february. On top of that you have had japanese investors buying huge amounts of foreign bonds. ¥16 trillion outflow which is huge. The reason why it is not impacting dollar yen is a lot of those outflows from japanese investors are on a fully hedged basis or close to fully hedged. The impact has been negligible. The fact that valuation of foreign securities has come down. They are rebalancing by investing. Francine is there a link between yen haven and Japanese Equities to what we are saying on swissie . I made a bloomberg chart just what we are seeing on swissie . What we are seeing on swissie . I made a bloomberg chart. Derek i suppose the breakdown of some of those stocks as they are racing toward more of the defensive type stocks versus cyclicals which have recovered in the Risk Appetite scenarios. That explains some of that differential. For japan, i think it is different. The unraveling of economics or concerns. That is the direction we could be heading. Francine Derek Halpenny from mitsubishi. Where moments away from gdp figures. We are moments away from gdp figures. An important one because it plays into the brexit debate. We have a referendum on june 23. The productivity puzzle in the u. K. Versus the u. S. The ftse down 0. 5 . Francine welcome back to the polls,ulse, live from london. Breaking news out of the u. K. The gdp figure we were expecting for the Fourth Quarter is a little bit better than expected. In terms of the figure year on year. Let me get it up for you, because i lost it on the bloomberg terminal; its better than expected. You can see an increase of 0. 6 for the Fourth Quarter. . En we were expecting 1. 5 the other important one is the current account balance; thats 32. 7 billion. Is better than expected but watch out for the current account balance. This is a picture of the currency you can see. Lets get straight to the first word news. Nejra thanks. Planning to cut 400 jobs in what may it a guest round of layoffs to date at the Worlds Largest money manager, according to people with with knowledge of the matter. Its equal to about 3 of its employees. Despite the cuts, blackrock will continue to invest and hire in key areas and expects to end the year with a higher headcount. German joblessness is unchanged in march, snapping a run of 5 decline. The number of people out of work held at a seasonally adjusted 2. 7 3 million. Thatata are signs they are struggling to tackle that wave of refugees. Donald trump has come under fire for saying that there would have to be some sort of punishment for women who have abortions if the procedure was outlawed in the u. S. Trump later issued two statements clarifying his position, saying it would be the doctor who should be held responsible. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 150 news bureaus around the world. Francine thank you so much. Lets head to the bloomberg with caroline hyde. Caroline thank you. Were on a down day to end the quarter. We see the stoxx 600 off by one percentage point, digging into the industry groups. They have been the best performer this year but they are down 1. 5 metals are lower. Oil and gas trading lower. Clearly there is some concern about the uptick in supplies, inventory Still Holding on to their largest since 1930. Concerns that there is a down day to end this quarter and month. I want to show you how particular industries, indices have been performing this year if youre looking across europe. This is normalized. The white dotted line is 100. Everyone has fallen over the course of the quarter, but some have fared better than others. Ftse is up 2 . Were off by 1. 5 . The stoxx has lost 7 year to date, so it has really taken a hit. European stocks have underperformed the u. S. The most since 2003. Stocks are selling off by 6. 7 . The swiss index is underperforming significantly, and check this out. Your homeland, francine, italy lost about 60 of its market value. It was all about the banks. We look at whats happening on ledyear to date, the miners the charge, Anglo American having 75 . 60 ,talian lenders up by similar to the other banks. I leave you with where you should put your money, bonds. 2 trillion added to this particular index. Bank of America Merrill lynch, global broad market index. Francine thanks so much. Lets get back to one of the drags on u. K. Gdp productivity growth. Lets take a look at this. See, theyre revised lower in the latest analysis. For more on this and the growth figures, lets speak to our nior analyst at i growth gdp is better than expected. It glided to 32. 7 billion. That iscentage of gdp, the most since records began in 1995. What does that tell us . Its a huge number. What we are seeing a significant volatility from investor income numbers. The traded number itself has been relatively stable; one can argue it has been improving. But were seeing significant shortfalls com