Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Trending Business 20160725 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Trending Business July 25, 2016

Todays yuantching facing after a report questioning its status as a safe haven currency. At todays top stories and tell me all about it. Follow me on twitter rishaadtv, and include trendingbusiness. Hong kong, shanghai opening in 30 minutes. Others coming online. Starting things off with a record highs. Lets go to the new zealand market, up by. 50 , a solid session last week, no holding on to alltime records. Kathmandu up by 2 . Out there. G a switch session,lia, a solid 8 10 of 1 on the asx 200 despite volatility and weakness in some of the commodity contracts. stocks leading the way, whitehaven up by 5 . A boost as iting announces its shots 500 stores. Weve had the japan trade data better than expected, the nikkei 225 by. 50 . Theyen weakening to 106 to dollar. Adding. 2 5 kospi after a lackluster session on friday. Taiwan, singapore, and malaysia joining in the buying as well. Certainly looking like the risk on rally in asia is continuing, even though analysts have been saying the run has gone too far, too fast, and we could see profit taking this week ahead of the boj meeting and the fed meeting. Looking at the yen, weaker by 4 10 of 1 . 106. 59. The crude contracts have come back in asian sessions after falling and the new york session on friday. This as we continue to see u. S. Oil rigs come online. 1 , alsoby a third of a boost to sentiment. Rishaad thanks for that. Two months ago, the yuan will be included in the basket of currencies for the imf. Analyst casting doubt on its ability to achieve haven status. We are following this from shanghai. Another setback for the yuan after years of questions over its credibility, right . As you say, the timing is unfortunate. We are two months away before the yuan is officially added in that basket of currencies. Away from thats august the one year anniversary, so the market feeling jitters there. Umult. E had some tom has made progress getting close to pseudosafe haven currency status. The pound, the yen, the dollar tend to rise in uncertainty measured against market volatility. Over the past year, swings became larger and the yuan has underperformed and let go of some ground it made in the last five years. The portion of yuan Global Payments also receded to a 2014 so globale, 1. 74 , usage component is not looking good. ,he take away from this study this certainly suggest the yuan is nowhere close to being a safe haven currency, and more importantly, its progress towards becoming a safe haven asset is looking in doubt as well. Rishaad about 34 years ago, this was seen as a oneway bet. It was never to my mind ever considered a safe haven. What is the thinking there . Would have to you be out there to consider the chinese currency as a safe haven. It doesnt fulfill your traditional requirements for a currency to be pegged as such or to be considered as such. Essentially, you can be a reserve currency, but that does not mean you are a safe haven currency. Yet tore specifications be fulfilled, transparency, reliability of policymaking. We know how ad hoc some of the us policymaking can be when it comes to china. It also has a close capital account and a very controlled currency. In fact last week, when we had that fiveday recovery rally when the yuan rallied 1 , there was speculation that it was the pboc stepping in to defend the yuan ahead of the g 20 meeting. We see this quite often a had of major global offense. They try to maintain stability when it comes to the yuan. Over the weekend, we heard from the pboc governor and Deputy Governor saying further efforts are being made to maintain stability in the yuan. A lot of analysts suggesting consolidation around that 6. 6 mark. The most recent survey of bloomberg analysts suggesting at yuan will and the year 6. 79. Rishaad moving from events in china to whats going on in japan, exports dropping for a ninth straight month. June. N is in tokyo. R lets have a look at what is going on behind these numbers. What is going on . Out, the dropted was not as severe as had been forecast. That is some positive news. Economists telling us that export declines may be bottoming out and we may be seeing a leveling out of this trend. Are some of the biggest trading partners, still big declines, 10 with china, japans largest trading partner, 6. 5 with the u. S. , and a slight decline with the eu as well, but on the positive side, much less severe than anticipated. What is behind the numbers is , they the yen strengthening making japanese products more expensive on the world stage. We got the boj meeting later this week, even though there have been some denials from the people who know. It has not damper at any expectations of further stimulus, right . Thats right. E just did a survey 32 of 41 analysts say they expect further easing when the boj meets. That is the highest percentage of analysts expecting action since governor kurodas debut three years ago. There is a lot of expectation and pressure, and we will be seeing a lot more data this week. A lot of it comes just before this meeting. A lot of expectations with the weak economy that the bank of japan needs to act, the largest expectation in terms of action is for an increase in Exchange Traded funds. Rishaad Jodi Schneider joining us from tokyo. Staying in japan and looking at a game that is taking the world by storm. Details of that and other stories, here is david. David lets check in on shares of nintendo. Company downplayed a potential earnings boost from pokemon go. There we go. 16 down. Coincidentally, the biggest drop in 16 years. Hard to say this was out of the blue. Short bets were built up of the stock went from 15,000, north of 31,000. We are 24,000 at the moment. Only so much optimism pokemon go can make. This comes on the back of a statement after markets closed in tokyo that said the impact of the game on earnings will be limited and it does not expect to revise its forecast higher based on current conditions. The company is also trying to manage expectations ahead of earnings on wednesday. Based on current projections, were looking at an annual profit so hard to0 million, justify the valuation there. Just to check in on shares of mcdonalds. It was also bought up last week on this frenzy, now down 10 . On tech and talk about one of the most anticipated deals in recent months may be announced today. Yahoo , and sources have told bloomberg that verizon has announced the buyout. Assets includes property , a price tag just over 4. 8 billion. Yahoo will be left with stakes in alibaba and yahoo japan. Those two together are worth 40 billion based on current stock prices. Is 37. 5ock cap billion. Before markets opened, we might see yahoo and its long struggle as an independent company. We reached out to both companies and they declined to comment. , bloombergto turkey was able to speak with the Prime Minister on sunday. He rolled out the possibility of early elections. Primeked about plans to the economy, multibilliondollar Infrastructure Fund, to keep growth on track could have a listen. Saying to Global Investors, this has come and gone, and the national will and the will of the citizens has destroyed the plotters. Life is back to normal in turkey. You can continue your longterm investments and we will it eliminate obstacles before you. We are laying out the turquoise carpet in front of investors and have all kinds of tax incentives come investment incentives, and we are giving priority to value added investments. Of thatn the back carpet, were looking at the lira trading at 305. As far as the size of that fund, he said it will be tens of billions of dollars. Apart from that, he talked about this weeping purges of people expected to have been involved in that recent coup attempt. He said that is nearing an end. Over 13,000 people have been detained. He said life there is back to normal in the country. Rishaad thanks for that. Coming up, a big week in Economic Data to calm. Will the fed surprise and pull the trigger on a rate hike . The arguments for and against that. Japans central bank also in the spotlight. Stimulus speculation mounts. Rishaad you are back with trending business. The yuan fix coming through, 6. 68 as werom 6. 662 edge towards that 6. 7 against the dollar level, which some are suggesting as the line in the sand. Central banks in the spotlight, the fed expected to hold steady, mounting speculation about the bank of japan expanding its Stimulus Program. Fix. Got that it does tell us that there is this policy of continuing to gradually weakening the yuan, what is your view . Think there are any real lines in the sand, but it was a sensitive number. Obviously we had those aggressive fixings ahead of the g20, and there was nothing for china to worry about in terms of its statement or the commentary on the sidelines. I think more of the same, which if the u. S. Dollar is able to track higher over the next few months and quarters, that means higher dollar china, but not aggressively so. Just a pretty gentle depreciation. If we see depreciating, why is that . Seem the markets, theyugh out of japan, but have to focus on their own issues, which im sure we will get to. For the most part, there is a greater degree of patience and perhaps even a recognition that thentle depreciation of chinese currency is not necessarily going to cause great shifts in terms of trade competitiveness. Rishaad last week we had reports from japan suggesting that bank of japan governor corrode or would increase the Stimulus Program in japan by something between ¥20 trillion and ¥30 trillion. He said he would probably not do that. Most economists say he is likely to increase it, but by how much . Could he surprises by not surprising us . They have done that before. Certainly governor kuroda and his team have shown that their top priority this year is not necessarily pleasing markets. Are very steep falls and dollaryen off of their announcement. There is a lot coming out of japan and the next few weeks. The stimulus package is where the bidding war is in terms of what is likely to be announced. For friday, there are so many different policy levers they can pull. A correspondent talking about etfs, that is a popular one, i sliver of what they are purchasing at the moment, so that is an area where the market will be disappointed if that is not boosted. Probably more about the composition and an increase in the total scale of quantitative easing, but really buying more jgbs. I think it is more the composition and ideally an increase in the total, but certainly risks over all for us are tilted to the downside on dollaryen. Rishaad i really should say shinzo abeops at mr. s desk. The upper house elections were a complicating factor. One of the arguments was governor kuroda might end up doing more. Does have greater political clout to pursue structural reform, that will mean the boj feels better about doing everything it can in terms of Monetary Policy rather than as the g20 said Monetary Policy cannot alone lead to balanced growth. Rishaad we have also got the Federal Reserve. What message will they send out in your view . Bit more little upbeat, we think. Certainly you would expect some reference to the u. K. Referendum. The last meeting was just ahead of the brexit vote. Presumably they were expecting a remain vote, but it was caution that even the hawks backed off on, calling for a rate hike. The u. S. Stock market at a record high, you would think that is making them feel that the brexit will not have any great impact on the u. S. Economy and not a reason to keep postponing, some more optimistic on the outlook, but not explicitly flagging a hike as soon as september in our view. Word and ont last that subject, looking at the Foreign Exchange space, a month since britain voted. In your view, are markets looking at this with sanity prevailing . Yeah, i think they are over all regarding it as britains problem for the most part. The pound is a great deal weaker than it was before the vote. And also europe, on friday night, you had the decent ratings on the pmi from the eurozone, but the currency did not benefit from that. It traded in sympathy with sterling when it toppled over those poor pmis, so mostly seen as uks problem and to a lesser extent the eurozones problem, and overall that is probably the right way for markets to be playing it. Rishaad have a great week. A sevenyearr hiatus, why the Hong Kong Exchange is reintroducing an old procedure. This is bloomberg. Rishaad you are back with trending business. Hong kong will reintroduce the stock closing auction today. We have a look at what is happening here. We just have the premarket auction closing. It looks like the hang seng is out. This is the end of the day. Why does an exchange need this . They did have it, now they dont. The markets ask for it for a long time. The current closing is one minute and there is a lot of hectic trading. This is when you have to trade and send lots of orders. Now they will extend it to 10 minutes to make it easier. Mitigatee trying to swings in the prices and it will be a random close that well to turn gaming. Rishaad why . It is price discovery, i suppose. What went wrong with the previous model in 2009. The hsbc shares fell in the last second and the whole model was scrapped. They have been designing it for seven years. The exchange took different models and analyze them and this is what they came up with. It is not 100 perfect, but better than the system they have now. Rishaad what other improvements is the exchange and visi envisig now to make it more attractive to investors . Traders,nd managers, brokers, that will be a big improvement. Sessiony the trading ends at 4 00 p. M. , and you have 10 minutes to complete the close. Rishaad thank you very much indeed. Going for growth. The g20 looking to build on global presence. Rishaad a look at our top stories, regional stocks on a positive start as investors await policy decisions from the boj and fed. The weaker yen giving tokyo of those. Numbers showing exports weakening, dropping for a ninth straight month in june. Then to know shares plunging with billions of dollars wiped off the market value and early trade after the Company Released a statement saying the Financial Impact from pokemon go would be limited and does not expect to revise its annual forecast higher. Instead, they are trying to manage expectations ahead of earnings on wednesday. A new fed reserve report is casting doubt on the yuans ability to achieve safe haven status. The currencies relative value has fallen as marketing volatility increased, weakening 2. 8 this year. In thatbe an included imf currency basket in october. Shanghai looking pretty positive. What do the opening numbers look like . Juliette the opening numbers banning on with premarket. We were seeing a. 5 jump on the open, just a little that of a pullback there, the hang seng up to tens of 1 . Property developers looking strong, a switch out on financial players, the opposite across the rest of the region. Consumer and financial stocks leading gains. The shanghai ashare market has open lower. Some very positive moves coming through from the nikkei, up by almost 7 10 of 1 , the yen continues to weekend, the dollar strength, 106 to the yen, positive moves on the asx 200. On toaland up, Holding Record highs it reached last week. The philippines also coming on line and adding. 5 , so certainly risk on appears to be in vogue the session, although we are expecting volatility ahead of the boj meeting and the fed meeting as well. Nintendo has been the story of the day. Through,ny coming saying it is unlikely to be able to continue to rally on pokemon go alone. Mcdonalds Holdings Also coming off as these two were paying a tie up in terms of pokemon go. Yahoo japan in focus on reports that verizon is going to make a play for yahoo before the bell tonight. Down, fourthing quarter gold output fell by 6 . Worth looking good, announcing job cuts and store closures. Investors like the fact they are trying to get their books in order. Looking at the casino stocks in hong kong in the early open, a bit of upside. Galaxy lower, but j. P. Morgan has come through, saying they expect growth growths gaming revenue to turn positive year by the fourth quarter. Gross gaming revenue to turn positive year on year by the fourth quarter. The offshore renminbi weaker. At 6. 6c setting the yuan 860, the weakest level since july. G20 fine ministers and Central Bank Governors have reiterated their pledged to use all tools to boost growth following the twoday summit in china. Tom mackenzie is there. What were the concerns are the key concerns voiced at the summit . Absolutely at the top of the list was week, lackluster Global Growth and which tools to employ to tackle it. Brexit is part of the mix and is in focus. What has crystallized over the last few days is a focus on the impact slow growth is having geopolitically and on what is seen as a growing antiglobalization movement that has been reflected in that brexit vote, but also in the u. S. With the rise of donald trump. I was lucky enough to speak to the president of the worlds bank about this, and also the secretary general of the oecd. I asked them both their views on the global economy. The listen. We have wanted to give good news to people for a long time, but unfortunately we keep having to downgrade. It is understandable in this context. We thought the u. S. Was solid, the European Union, the eurozone , seem to be getting better, even japan seem to be doing a little bit that are, but then brexit was a big hit. We are still trying to understand exactly what the implications are, but it looks like Global Growth will be disappointing again. We will renew our projections in september. Then it will go country by country in november. Weortunately, i think that are going to have some weaker performances, especially in the european theater. Brexit, but also in general the recovery has been weaker than we thought. So policymakers really reiterating the need for fiscal stimulus and structural reform, saying there cant be a complete reliance on Monetary Policy, and we are seeing from japan, possibly the u. K. As well, looking at extra fiscal support. It is growth they want to tackle, and the chinese were pushing for a coordinated International Response for this. The u. S. Backed off on that slightly, but those are some of the key concerns, and analysts say we may start to see as a result of this com

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