Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Trending Business 20160923 : vimar

BLOOMBERG Trending Business September 23, 2016

Taking on disney. Sony moviesing in and opening his second theme park. Of me know what you think todays stories by following me on twitter. Dont forget to include trendingbusiness. China and hong kong online in 30 minutes. We have a look at what is happening. It is mixed after that exuberant rally. The nikkei is not playing along. The holiday just ending in into negative territory, down. 2 . Still, emerging markets across the world are seeing huge inflows. Than 20 billion of inflows in the last 16 weeks. On a tear. Os take a look at this chart. Couldiwan Stock Exchange pass its 1 trillion mark for the First Time Since june last year. Taiwan semiconductor leading those gains. Taiwan semiconductor is an apple supplier. Record highs on the new sales of Iphone Models beat estimates. Company has an 18 weighting in taiwan. A big gain for the taiwanese market there, helped by taiwan semiconductor. 30 minutes before the open and china and hong kong. We are expecting the markets to gain slightly. The shanghai composite has gained in the last two sessions. Haidi japan missing out. Markets are calling the bojs bluff. Are going in the opposite direction from what policymakers wanted. David, what is happening now . Opposite ofomplete what they wanted. Have a look at the yield curve. Between comparison september 19, meeting on wednesday, wrapping up, and this is where we are at the moment. The longer end is falling more than the short end. At the leftmost side of your screens, we are inverted again on the short end, which speaks to this note coming to control the yield curve is an error for the boj. Can control p contro they are looking at the wrong thing, at least pulling on the wrong levers. I mentioned, we are looking at the complete opposite of what the boj wanted to see. Haidi the yen looking to retest 100. Officials say they are ready to act, and were talking about intervention again. Every time we get near 100, we will get these verbal warnings. Level,ested the 100 there was an emergency meeting the financeboj, ministry, and the Securities Regulator on the japanese yen. They are ready to act. They stop short of coming out with a specific level at which time they were jump in. At fundamental and technical analysis, and this is a note out of our bloomberg strategist, and he is saying these two things are aligned. Can we get my bloomberg chart up here . Essentially dollaryen and some key levels you might want to watch. 100 is psychologically important. 97. 28, the green line you see right there, that is your standard deviation support. We are basically headed there. All of those efforts and monetary policy, very little returns when it comes to what the boj governor is getting. Lets get more from our Energy Reporter on the opec meeting in out years. In algiers. We will see more high leading up to that meeting. One of the key challenges is supplied. Supply. The market has dynamically changed since the meeting was called. Recently, even opec itself saying the glut will be here for much longer. The challenge is trying to balance and meet that. You have team members from the group saying production needs to be cut. Algerian oil minister saying one Million Barrels a day needs to be cut from the market. That unlessying there is a cut, prices would not climb over 50 a barrel. Haidi are you betting on any outcome next week . Are, there iss not going to be a change. If there is something, it may be token. Domestichave the teletext within opec that are playing out. Libya and nigeria want to ramp up production. Saudi arabia and iran are trying to work through their differences. On thee is anything upside, it is a bonus for markets. Haidi thank you. Lets take a look at some other stories we are watching today. A 2014 hackevealed involving 500 million users. Juliette yes, half a billion yahoo users, the biggest data breach in history. 2014ack took place in revealing names, passwords, phone numbers, birth dates, and in some crisis security cases security questions and answers. Yahoo says it was a statesponsored actor. One billion users are being urged to change their passwords. Ae disclosure comes at significant time for yahoo as Marissa Mayer navigates the country towards a plan for . 8 billion takeover by the horizon. Yahoo needs users to keep logging in to draw traffic and advertisers. People familiar with the investigation said the link to a nationstate is not ironclad. They are blaming the hack on a government,a former seen as a get out of jail free card. Invested 7 billion in its india unit. We understand Vodafone India will use the funds to expand its network and participate in an auction for 4g spectrum. Threef the investment, billion dollars, was conversion of debt into equity. It gives Vodafone India more firepower in a crowded market and comes weeks after indias riches man began operating his mobile phone carrier by offering free calls. Indicatedndia has not when it will go public, but we hear it helps to raise as much as 3 billion. Andts, camera, action, sony dalian wanda have reached an agreement. s Production Group will invest in Sony Pictures. Largest owner of movie theaters, continues its expansion. It snapped up Legendary Entertainment for 3. 5 billion. It is a huge win for the japanese company, winning the backing of wanda will help sony gain greater access to chinas restricted movie market. Thanks for that. Coming up later, policing social media. We look at chinas latest attempt to rein in online discussion. Our next guest says he is taking with his position that the fed will move before the year is out. This is bloomberg. Haidi u. S. Markets is seeing a rally overnight. N a asia, we are starting to lose steam. Lets get more on the market dynamics. Happy friday. Indication of the anemic tapering of the rally in asia, does this adjust that investors have reached the point where they realize Central Banks have lost credibility . Think they have quite lost credibility yet, but they are on the brink and in a because ifsition they dont do anything, then that credibility will be lost, but i think Central Banks have the power and markets. When it comes to the fed, we think the fed will move in the Fourth Quarter this year. It is a view we have had since the beginning of the year, and that is because the situation allows them to. There is a lot of market noise from time to time, but if you take a pragmatic view, we think the Fourth Quarter is still on the table and pricing in the market will start to change over the next few weeks to reflect that. Haidi we saw volatility get crushed again in the wake of the decision. Does this mean we will see further buying into australia . Australia is an interesting the composition of the asx 200 index is skewed towards the top 10 names. Resources have been lagging for such a long time, and now there is some value buying, particular from International Capital flows, bhp , other iron ore producers, coming off record lows, silvio strahan market is looking quite good. The asx0 has some 200 has some good support, but lacks the catalyst to break out. Thatd not necessarily see this reporting season, so we think the band on the asx 200 is a nice band to trade. We dont see it breaking out either way, but markets can move on fear as there could be some downside potential, but were saying 5200 looking quite good. Not seeming to move much more, and if they do, the boj running out of options. The fed sitting where it is. Is it a situation where long yield is where you have to be . I think you have to be long Earnings Growth. We are in an environment where we have record low Interest Rates and high quality corporates are using that to their advantage. The really good been is this is good businesses will be able to grow and generate high returns on investor capital. While everyone is chasing shortterm yield and playing that differential, we think the businesses to be investing in are those that can create Earnings Growth potential at a time when Interest Rates are low. The realhere generational wealth is created in stock markets and equities, so the part of the market we like in australia is the smallcap space, anything from 100 million to three hundred Million Dollars of market cap with a clean Balance Sheet really has a onceinalifetime to use cheap debt, grow business, and generate returns. Haidi you said there are some bargains to be found in commodities, although the recovery is just beginning. The term commodities is very broad, so you have metals, energy, agricultural space. We think the Agricultural Commodities and businesses in that space are looking prices havebecause come off in line with oil prices, but the dynamics are very different. Oil can be substituted for an energy source, but food cap. The dynamics for food are still very federal very favorable. Pureld not be going into metalbased explores or anything like that. You want something with a diverse range of revenue and something that has been sold off that you are buying it with a large margin of error factored in. Into the you go commodities themselves or proxy that in equities . I would rather go into the equities. Let me give you an example. Gnc, a very strong grain handling and marketing business. Prices have come off in line with oil prices. A business subject to a takeover because it was so attractive, and the government blocked it. Ever since then, it has been looking for a catalyst to rerate. In that myth cap space, emerging midcap stays, and that is something you can take a 13year view. Andan use cheap debt, grow, if Commodity Prices do improve, it will have a big impact on earnings. That is an example of something that slips through the cracks. It is leverage to Commodity Prices. Haidi very interesting pick up there. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Haidi lets get a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. Black rock says markets could fall 15 if governments dont take what he calls necessary and aggressive fiscal policy action. He is more pessimistic on the markets at the moment, but also governments act, markets could rise 10 . He says the uncertainty around the brexit decision is worsening. What i hear talking to ceos in the uk, they are not incrementally hiring. They are not incrementally planning to invest in the uk until there is more certainty. I do believe brexit will be a big deal with big consequences in the uk, depending on how the negotiation goes. Cut interestsia rates for the fifth time this year to boost growth. The central bank lowered its rate by 25 basis points to 5 . The decision comes as indonesias growth rate remains low, below the 7 target. In contrast, the philippines decided to hold rates at a record low 3 again. Central banks last cut in may as part of a policy overhaul. The president is increasing Government Spending on infrastructure and social programs to strengthen growth. He hopes to see the economy expanded by 7 this year and 20 17, 7. 5 . Coming up, hanjin thrown another lifeline, but with conditions. We will be in seoul, korea next. This is bloomberg. Shipping has been thrown another lifeline, a conditional credit line to recover its stranded ships. How will this help hanjin . Provided by the biggest shareholder korean air and the chairman of hanjin group and the former chairman of hanjin shipping is not enough, then the credit will be used. This will help bringing vessel stranded at port in various parts of the world to unload cargo. That is the Biggest Issue right now. The longer those ships that hanjin doesnt own are within the fleet, it means more costs. It is the last thing they want at the moment. Haidi is this an indication that creditors are largely supporting the company . Kdb said this is not to support hanjin, but the money is to be used to unload the cargo. They said this is the last they will hanjin give to. They made itnjin clear that it will not be working capital for hanjin shipping. Thank you for the latest bankruptcy. In with Corporate Bond defaults in china rising, credit default swaps have been approved for the first time. How much demand is there if theyre going to default anyway . There is demand because it spreads the risk. It is not necessarily very government as creditor of last default that comes in and bails out. We are seeing rising bond defaults in china. 18 local bonds have missed payments so far this year. There were seven for all of last year. Tentativelybank has approved the trading of credit default swaps by financial institutions. It would be the first time. This is what an analyst said about this. To have credit default swaps is a good thing because so far there are no meaningful hedging tools in the market yet. The market has high demand for such instruments. Haidi is this a direct correlation to the number of missed payments we have seen this year . Defaults, basically this is a transfer of the credit risks. To a buyer,l sell an investor who will take regular payments up to maturity and less there is a credit event or default, then they get a pay out. That takes the responsibility off the government to bail out a failed bond. Analyst here in hong kong is saying, banks are the main players in the credit market so it is likely the risks will still be within the banking system. Its not like you transfer the risks outside. Thegood thing is that government will now allow more corporate failures perhaps. Haidi perhaps. Is still within the financial system, but this is the first step to spread the risk. You talk about find and still institutions, state and banks, brokerages, funds may be taking this on. Thats right. Who will be the buyers, sellers, and issuers . Probably the state owned bank themselves. We will be getting you more once we have confirmation. There minutes away from start of trading in china, shanghai, shenzhen, and hang kong. Hong kong. We are indicating a little upside, which would be a nice positive sentiment when it comes to the broadly lower asian markets. Coming up next, assessing chinas recent reshuffling of provincial leaders. This is bloomberg. Hey hows it going, hotcakes . Hotcakes. This place has hotcakes. So why arent they selling like hotcakes . With comcast Business Internet and wifi pro, they could be. Just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and youll reach your customers where their eyes are already on their devices. Order up. Its more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. You dont see that every day. Introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. Comcast business. Built for business. Trendinge top stories this hour. The more that boj does, the more traders become convinced at yen is out of control. This weeks policy decision was the fifth straight meeting that saw the currency gained by the end of the day. The currency has gained 20 this year. It is set for the biggest annual advance and eight years. Have failed toks produce an agreement on an oil freeze. Opecs two leading members met ahead of the and formal discussions with russia next week. Retreated this month amid concerns that there is no serious commitment to curb supply. All but two of 23 analysts we surveyed addicting no deal. Predict no deal. Wang jianlin expanding, his Dalian Wanda Group will collaborate with sony, giving sony greater access to the chinese market. Thean wanda operates Worlds Largest number of cinema screens. We are monitoring the market open and shanghai and hong kong. Hopefully we are seeing a bit of diversions. Are seeing asian stocks falling for the first time in six days, from the highest close in more than a year, the nikkei dragging down the index after coming back from its holiday. Shanghaiee if the index brings more positive sentiment into the region. Gainhanghai composite,. 1 , rising for a third consecutive session. Same thing for the hang seng. Stocks you need to keep an eye on in the hang seng index. We have some new analyst ratings. In the telecom industry, china , a changeina unicom in their rating. Mobile cut to neutral. China unicom was upgraded to a by. It is now surging 6 . Cut to neutral, down. 6 . Isi said, the nikkei dragging the index and sentiment here and asia after coming back from its holiday. They missed out on that global stock rally. The red. In they are recouping some losses, but still unable to turn green. Falling. 2 , that is despite the. 4anese yen weakening percent and holding at 101. 17. We had some volatile movements in the yen, and top officials in japan have warned they will act if needed. , different story for the kospi which has been searching for six days. It is now gaining. 2 , helped by a weaker korean won after strengthening immensely the previous session. Winners out of what has been quite a week when it comes to centralbank policy decisions. To be a year of policy diversions, but banks seem to be doing the exact opposite. Year, the of last word and every Research Note was diversions, decoupling, so what is behind this reconvergence . We are still on different paths, but theyre getting closer again. To increaseexpected rates four times at the end of last year. It has not done it once this year. Rate r, no, we will wait. Maybe december is on the cards, but who knows. On the other hand, the ecb and boj are expressing some recognition about the downside to monetary stimulus. The boj this month took a new look, tightening the yield curve, so maybe they are not easing as much as some thought. Haidi the question has to be asked, where is this coming from . Is the data really that bad . The boj, you wonder if there is anything else they can really do. Unifying Central Banks, inflation, low inflationary environment is proving tough to budge. There are a couple of things at work, aging society, technological change. This liquiditydriven rally we have seen, what is the problem . That is one camp. The problem is we have this massive bonds market, 100 trillion, and every time we see this low rate environment perpetuated longer, bond yields , andwn, bo

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