Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20160321 : vimarsan

Can see a nine point swing. That is the narrowest so far. Tracey through this chalk this up to narrow taking . Joe there was the apple event, even apple went nowhere fast. If you take a look at the stock, it was around a threemonth high with an onset for the biggest monthly gain since 2013. The event was underwhelming, it was a rumor already sold type of thing. I should point out that since 2011, apple stocks gained an 1. 5 one month after a product launched, and 10 months later down to 1. 8 areas downplayedere may be reaction. Tracey treasuries were down, and we saw Something Interesting in the inflation as measured by the 10 year breaking been even. Lots people talking about inflation, possibly because we saw Central Banks speak. We saw jeffrey lacher talking about potential Interest Rate rises today. Alix we could see rate increases as early as april. That was a little aggressive. Tracey it is still interesting on the back of the dumbest statement from the fed last week. Lets sic a look at currencies. Dollar the story is the , up against 14 major currencies, pushing the dollar index up and recouping a 3. 5 to drop so far this month. Goldman sachs is sticking with the strong dollar call. This is opposed to another, saying the fed will the stick Interest Rateased plan, even though they downgraded their assessment. Talkinga lot of people about the potential divergence. Now we have students inability convergence sustainability convergence. Scarlet and you mentioned the pound appreciating after the u. K. Government was pro brexit, resigned. This was three months before the referendum. Tracey i want to highlight palladium, one of the Precious Metals up over 2 today. Oil also surprisingly strong. I did not see any big headline that would lead me to leave khalif wyatt wti was stronger than brent. If you look at the one that traded in china, 352 a ton again. Iron ore. Scarlet is crazy. We have breaking news, lee and investor, the famed Omega Advisors getting a wealth notice from the spc. This is a hedge fund run by mr. Cooperman. Investigators are taking action against him. This is all because of a person familiar related to the matter. We dont know anything beyond that. Except for the fact the person claims the investigation is into Trading Academy activity in 2012. We will have. Those are the market minutes. Now lets take a deep dive in the bloomberg. You can see all of these charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. Alix we have had Central Banks peak, and lochner talking about the potential for inflation to come back to the fed 2 target. Or my deep dive, i have just got a deep of slightly random indications that i stole from luke cowher. Then we have spc e, and energy, cpi ex energy, and that is picking up well above the 2 target. Even pce, which the fed is focused on, is turning toward a 2 . Is inflation eventually going to go with the rate rise . Scarlet a lot of people say it will. Alix if the fed will be the central banker of the world artificially in some ways depress the dollar to help everyone else out, are they going to avoid that at some point because inflation is too high . Is that why they see these 4 numbers . Tracey Everyone Wants to know if they are willing to look for higher inflation in order to save the world. We will have to see. Scarlet looking at brazil, impeachment drama, youd think it would make it would more expensive for brazil to draw money. You are wrong. It is getting cheaper for brazil to borrow. The red line shows how three weeks ago, yield investors got when you go out to 11 years is let me pull that up is right around 16. 5 . The green line shows how last week it dropped to 14. 5 . There is a lot of did mans a lot of demand for the yield, especially when the political fortunes are at an election point. Tracey that you can have all this political turmoil and it continues to rally. Scarlet some would even call it a depression. Alix i am looking at stock of the day in the u. S. , and that is valeant. Holders of this stock, obviously rowean see here, the t price prize. Im highlighting valeant. They had 5 million shares at the beginning of march. We dont know how they own it or when they bought it. Back on these calculations based on the close at opening price of march 9, pushing squares on the hope for 777 million worth of loss from them until now. They are doubling down because now he is on the board, but it is a good indication of loss that he has taken. Scarlet i love that function because it points out the are basis holding of valeant stock. In valeant isnt just a stock story. It is also debt. 33 billion of debt. Many held by asset managers. Scarlet you can see all of these charts and more on twitter. , the head ofpears the capital, he is here. Scarlet when you look at valeant share price, it jumped as much as 13 . Ceo wasly when the stepping down. How are the Debt Securities trading . Weve been looking at that. Senior secured debts, leveraged loans, 93. There is some believe there is value to support the company. Versus holly valuable it is how valuable it is. We are seeing 14. 5 of market gap. Bonds,y look at market they are low to average. There is concern, you have that embree yield curve, but there is some so of level of belief there is underlying value. Scarlet is that comforting, or should we be for eight people are starting to pick apart the capital structure . The two things that are company comforting, the higher price shortterm. They are 87, the other is 75. They are not trading to a recovery value, but there is some encouraging signs. Tracey i want to show you a cool function, d car s a. Risk forne default valeant. You can see a huge spike as the share price really tumbles. This tells a very interesting story. It shows potential default rates in one year over 4 . Five years almost 10 . In terms of how that is climbing. How elevated it has gone. The whole debt versus equity, we are relatively few sellers of debt. If you go back to the financial crisis, the debt was promised because there is a lot of leverage the credit business. There is less leverage, said that can hang in very well. And you look at the etf, the average loan atf or even more, they are holding up. Scarlet so valeant needs to talk with low investors to give it more time. In all your years of covering corporate credit, what tends to happen now . It will depend who holds this, what their motivation is. You typically wind up with some sort of deal three of really not in the interest to push them into bankruptcy, but you will get more bank, security, payments made for anything that was covered in violations. Probably not in interest to push this to the edge right now. Negotiations will not be easy especially with valeant having changes at the top. Alix speaking of difficult negotiations, how possible do you see, or how difficult would it be for valeant to come back into the debt market and reissue debt . I dont think they need to finance anything significant until 2018, but they havent depended on debt issuance. That will be a while. The high markets are just reopening. If you look at highyield in january february, investment was on fire. High yield is really struggling to get done. It is easy now. A company that already has a lot of debt outstanding, unity past this situation before they can get clarity. Etf, taking a look at the you do have highyield leverage in the past. We have seen ready big rallies. Hyg, we hadook at 8270 and the target. I start to get a little cautious. I like the leverage loan space a little bit more. Has the same run, the same value. You move up in the capital structure and have more Downside Protection if it goes wrong. If the fed does start hiking rates, you have that ready to go up. Taking profit and moving into the leverage zone, and keeping investmentgrade space where we are in ok shape. Are going to talk a whole lot more about highyield with peter, but before we go, in terms of giant rallies we have seen, what is the underlying driving force kind that . One thing that sounds weird is the lack of liquidity. On the way down, that means prices overshot any fundamental value. The problem is, because dealers dont have inventory, running things like they used to, on the way back up it is difficult to source of this. You have this issue where inability is source deeper, it forces investors to grab and reach for yield again. Scarlet you are staying with us. Coming up, is credit drying up . We will discuss global equity. Mark lets get the first word news. The apple ceo is talking about his companys legal standoff with the government. At an event designed for the introduction of new products, tim cook addressed a court order requiring apple to unlock the handset of one of the San Bernardino shooters. He said the company has a response ability to protect user data and is committed to privacy. We built the iphone for you, our customers. And we know it is a deeply personal device. For many of us, the iphone is an extension of ourselves. Onk apple raise the curtain a new, smaller iphone that will start at 399. Says anch Embassy Attack is underway and, the capital of mali. Al qaeda has given more than 65 people attacks on west african hotels. Burkina faso, and the ivory coast since november. Hillary clinton addressed the Israel Public Affairs committee. In a nod to trumps controversial rhetoric, she said the crowd should stand up to bullies. Israel security is nonnegotiable. Powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 nearest euros around the world, i am mark crumpton. Alix european credit markets are booming thanks to the ecb president Mario Draghis tinton think stimulus plan. A credit bubble . Peter is the with us. We were just discussing in the previous segment that this idea that low liquidity in the Corporate Bond market can force prices up as well as down. Is that what has been behind the recent rally . Peter yes, and your sorting to see this new wave where the issue has strong demand. Then you have quality demands laying around, and now you are seeing the swagger. The things people were afraid to own, now they are saying, this rally israel. I can afford it. Propels the rally one more leg higher. Tracey and who continues this . Peter it is very high, especially with the actions of mario draghi. You see various programs and a trend where u. S. Companies tap into europe. Tap into that new wealth of demand. That will create the supply here with a shortage of supply, which continues to get tighter. Tracey you can see bloombergs highyield index. It is almost completely recovered from the depths of february, which is amazing. You mentioned the ecb, and the ecb last week announced a huge Corporate Bond buying program. If we are going to talk about liquidity, also, liquidity is also in europe. How will that impact u. S. Market . Peter he will start with u. S. Treasuries start selling off a little bit. On the 10 year. Qe demand is all in europe, not over here. We have the willingness of the fed to overheat. They are not afraid of inflation, they seem to want to push it up. I can understand why you want to own a twoyear or fiveyear bonds. You have to be careful. What if the fed gets its wishing gets above 2 inflation, particularly six months to a year if they rest on hot for a while . Tracey is this the idea that over the longer term, even if inflation is over 2 , it could still be very low . Peter yes. Used the you see cpi a little bit above, but we could run 2. 5 inflation for a year and still only average 2 for the past two to three years. The tendency will be to let this run a little bit more, overheat the economy, and give one final push along with what draghi is doing. The same in china as well. Every central bank is try to push us over that,. Tracey so the default cycle we have all been worried about will be extended . Peter i think it pushes us off. If treasury yield is higher, that is the same for Corporate Bonds. One thing that is holding off real money or investors, tension funds, their overall low yield. If we get higher treasury yields, demand for corporate is higher. And the banks are so healthy, they are incentivized to push people over the years. While they are healthy and continue to make money, they can be more willing to work with companies to renegotiate, extend. The fall cycle will be drawn out. People will get you saw the big short. It will be like that. You are paying for all the time. We could be in a nice little period we get some commons on the side of market. Tracey timing seems to be tricky because people have been talking about crossing this for years now. Peter it is all about timing. Credit, there is nothing as unique. We look at the big short, there are huge amounts of debt traded at 10 days. Nothing short. If your short at 10 , youve got to be ready pretty quickly, because if it isnt your potential return. Dietz into your potential return. It becomes more interesting in the credit. Quickly, lets talk about ecb bond buying program. What impact will this have on that market given that it has already been so competitive to buy new bonds . Peter the only real hope is that it forces money into real companies. One set i would look at, i have been told and verified is weve seen correlation for auto sales and lonely availability. Taking that to an extreme. If loans are available, someone will use it. There is time to spark that. I was very, i was expecting our own site to be dovish. They cannot want to hold him back. He is going to press forward. Really are in. Everyone will make this push to see if we can get over the hump and break free. Tracey is a great points. On the search for yields, they are even lower. Is that exacerbating the demise of the credit bubble to come . Peter yes, it will leave everything overexposed after the rally. No money to trade to cover losses. That is the real risk. I dont know how we will excavate ourselves. We were getting close in january when the fed was letting us go through the period volatility, and now we are back in the cycle of investing in banks, which leaves us with longerterm loans. What can we do to prove it not to work . Tracey thank you so much. Scarlet coming up, we have the chart that explains why oil is rallying. Alec still coming with that one. Alix i am alix steel. Why oil is rallying. I have the charts to prove it. Take a look inside. ,il prices were following because they have seen so much of supply, they would have to go into floating storage, because we just had too much. Immediate prices fell even further. This chart proves trade no longer works. This is the difference between wti one month and a seven month features. What you pay now versus seven months. As you can see here, that difference has been shrinking. The more it rallies, the smaller that gap becomes. The idea is that you cant just buy oil and then sell it forward in a few months time. Tracey but right around here it may have been profitable when the difference was eight dollars or nine dollars. Her extensive to store oil offshore. But as the line increases, it will become more difficult to store it offshore. That idea means the markets are tighter and we think. You dont need to floating storage. If we needed it, prices would be lower. Goldman sachs says because of that, he will not have the blowout great concern that perhaps the work is over. I love the alex titled that where is my cotango. [laughter] scarlet almost. Tracey i am going to go look at stocks for a second. Nowhere near as interesting as but it stands with alliteration. We have a blackout the bank for corporate chair by back really keeping up ahead of the earnings season which kicks off next month. We have had so many people worried about the fragility of the rally in stocks, and one of the things i worry about is the idea that corporations are the only big buyers in stocks right now. The next couple of weeks should provide us with an interesting experiment in which there arent that many share buybacks and we can see what impact that has. Scarlet we have seen with this go around, since february 11 ,hen jp morgan was disclosing that led to recovery. We saw other banks indicated they bought back shares as well. That has all been fueled by this advance. Tracey this will be an interesting market dish. Sorlet petri dish sounds biological. I am looking at china manufacturing. How many different ways can you read it . There is a reading from kai shang that only goes back three years. That is the green line. And the satellite imagery. So looking at these, bloomberg space, which uses space imagery to track 3000 Industrial Facilities in china. People who doubts the Government Official data. Alix so you actually brought Us Manufacturing data from space. Tracey it looks better than the official pmi. Scarlet i am glad you bring that up. This gives us more time, you get an earlier read than the government read, and also it is indicating a shrinkage, but nonetheless. We would hear from mervyn king. That is next. Oh, hi micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. announcer were taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the 60s. Well celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. Therell be over 40 Live Performances featuring eric burdon the animals, micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving Fort Lauderdale and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. Youll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 funfilled celebrity interactive events. Cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well. The flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. Let your freak flag fly. Dont miss the grooviest trip at sea. Mark lets get the first word news. President obama and cuban president raul castro met today in havana, following talks at the palace of the revolution. They held a joint press conference. Mr. Obama called his business in cuba a new day relation between the two countries and he urged to hi them to seize economic opportunities. Economic the blockade is the most important issue to the cuban people. North korea has test fired Ballistic Missiles into the sea. South korea says kim jonguns regime wash five shortrange missiles today. Earlier this month the Something Interesting<\/a> in the inflation as measured by the 10 year breaking been even. Lots people talking about inflation, possibly because we saw Central Banks<\/a> speak. We saw jeffrey lacher talking about potential Interest Rate<\/a> rises today. Alix we could see rate increases as early as april. That was a little aggressive. Tracey it is still interesting on the back of the dumbest statement from the fed last week. Lets sic a look at currencies. Dollar the story is the , up against 14 major currencies, pushing the dollar index up and recouping a 3. 5 to drop so far this month. Goldman sachs is sticking with the strong dollar call. This is opposed to another, saying the fed will the stick Interest Rate<\/a>ased plan, even though they downgraded their assessment. Talkinga lot of people about the potential divergence. Now we have students inability convergence sustainability convergence. Scarlet and you mentioned the pound appreciating after the u. K. Government was pro brexit, resigned. This was three months before the referendum. Tracey i want to highlight palladium, one of the Precious Metals<\/a> up over 2 today. Oil also surprisingly strong. I did not see any big headline that would lead me to leave khalif wyatt wti was stronger than brent. If you look at the one that traded in china, 352 a ton again. Iron ore. Scarlet is crazy. We have breaking news, lee and investor, the famed Omega Advisors<\/a> getting a wealth notice from the spc. This is a hedge fund run by mr. Cooperman. Investigators are taking action against him. This is all because of a person familiar related to the matter. We dont know anything beyond that. Except for the fact the person claims the investigation is into Trading Academy<\/a> activity in 2012. We will have. Those are the market minutes. Now lets take a deep dive in the bloomberg. You can see all of these charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. Alix we have had Central Banks<\/a> peak, and lochner talking about the potential for inflation to come back to the fed 2 target. Or my deep dive, i have just got a deep of slightly random indications that i stole from luke cowher. Then we have spc e, and energy, cpi ex energy, and that is picking up well above the 2 target. Even pce, which the fed is focused on, is turning toward a 2 . Is inflation eventually going to go with the rate rise . Scarlet a lot of people say it will. Alix if the fed will be the central banker of the world artificially in some ways depress the dollar to help everyone else out, are they going to avoid that at some point because inflation is too high . Is that why they see these 4 numbers . Tracey Everyone Wants<\/a> to know if they are willing to look for higher inflation in order to save the world. We will have to see. Scarlet looking at brazil, impeachment drama, youd think it would make it would more expensive for brazil to draw money. You are wrong. It is getting cheaper for brazil to borrow. The red line shows how three weeks ago, yield investors got when you go out to 11 years is let me pull that up is right around 16. 5 . The green line shows how last week it dropped to 14. 5 . There is a lot of did mans a lot of demand for the yield, especially when the political fortunes are at an election point. Tracey that you can have all this political turmoil and it continues to rally. Scarlet some would even call it a depression. Alix i am looking at stock of the day in the u. S. , and that is valeant. Holders of this stock, obviously rowean see here, the t price prize. Im highlighting valeant. They had 5 million shares at the beginning of march. We dont know how they own it or when they bought it. Back on these calculations based on the close at opening price of march 9, pushing squares on the hope for 777 million worth of loss from them until now. They are doubling down because now he is on the board, but it is a good indication of loss that he has taken. Scarlet i love that function because it points out the are basis holding of valeant stock. In valeant isnt just a stock story. It is also debt. 33 billion of debt. Many held by asset managers. Scarlet you can see all of these charts and more on twitter. , the head ofpears the capital, he is here. Scarlet when you look at valeant share price, it jumped as much as 13 . Ceo wasly when the stepping down. How are the Debt Securities<\/a> trading . Weve been looking at that. Senior secured debts, leveraged loans, 93. There is some believe there is value to support the company. Versus holly valuable it is how valuable it is. We are seeing 14. 5 of market gap. Bonds,y look at market they are low to average. There is concern, you have that embree yield curve, but there is some so of level of belief there is underlying value. Scarlet is that comforting, or should we be for eight people are starting to pick apart the capital structure . The two things that are company comforting, the higher price shortterm. They are 87, the other is 75. They are not trading to a recovery value, but there is some encouraging signs. Tracey i want to show you a cool function, d car s a. Risk forne default valeant. You can see a huge spike as the share price really tumbles. This tells a very interesting story. It shows potential default rates in one year over 4 . Five years almost 10 . In terms of how that is climbing. How elevated it has gone. The whole debt versus equity, we are relatively few sellers of debt. If you go back to the financial crisis, the debt was promised because there is a lot of leverage the credit business. There is less leverage, said that can hang in very well. And you look at the etf, the average loan atf or even more, they are holding up. Scarlet so valeant needs to talk with low investors to give it more time. In all your years of covering corporate credit, what tends to happen now . It will depend who holds this, what their motivation is. You typically wind up with some sort of deal three of really not in the interest to push them into bankruptcy, but you will get more bank, security, payments made for anything that was covered in violations. Probably not in interest to push this to the edge right now. Negotiations will not be easy especially with valeant having changes at the top. Alix speaking of difficult negotiations, how possible do you see, or how difficult would it be for valeant to come back into the debt market and reissue debt . I dont think they need to finance anything significant until 2018, but they havent depended on debt issuance. That will be a while. The high markets are just reopening. If you look at highyield in january february, investment was on fire. High yield is really struggling to get done. It is easy now. A company that already has a lot of debt outstanding, unity past this situation before they can get clarity. Etf, taking a look at the you do have highyield leverage in the past. We have seen ready big rallies. Hyg, we hadook at 8270 and the target. I start to get a little cautious. I like the leverage loan space a little bit more. Has the same run, the same value. You move up in the capital structure and have more Downside Protection<\/a> if it goes wrong. If the fed does start hiking rates, you have that ready to go up. Taking profit and moving into the leverage zone, and keeping investmentgrade space where we are in ok shape. Are going to talk a whole lot more about highyield with peter, but before we go, in terms of giant rallies we have seen, what is the underlying driving force kind that . One thing that sounds weird is the lack of liquidity. On the way down, that means prices overshot any fundamental value. The problem is, because dealers dont have inventory, running things like they used to, on the way back up it is difficult to source of this. You have this issue where inability is source deeper, it forces investors to grab and reach for yield again. Scarlet you are staying with us. Coming up, is credit drying up . We will discuss global equity. Mark lets get the first word news. The apple ceo is talking about his companys legal standoff with the government. At an event designed for the introduction of new products, tim cook addressed a court order requiring apple to unlock the handset of one of the San Bernardino<\/a> shooters. He said the company has a response ability to protect user data and is committed to privacy. We built the iphone for you, our customers. And we know it is a deeply personal device. For many of us, the iphone is an extension of ourselves. Onk apple raise the curtain a new, smaller iphone that will start at 399. Says anch Embassy Attack<\/a> is underway and, the capital of mali. Al qaeda has given more than 65 people attacks on west african hotels. Burkina faso, and the ivory coast since november. Hillary clinton addressed the Israel Public Affairs<\/a> committee. In a nod to trumps controversial rhetoric, she said the crowd should stand up to bullies. Israel security is nonnegotiable. Powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 nearest euros around the world, i am mark crumpton. Alix european credit markets are booming thanks to the ecb president Mario Draghis<\/a> tinton think stimulus plan. A credit bubble . Peter is the with us. We were just discussing in the previous segment that this idea that low liquidity in the Corporate Bond<\/a> market can force prices up as well as down. Is that what has been behind the recent rally . Peter yes, and your sorting to see this new wave where the issue has strong demand. Then you have quality demands laying around, and now you are seeing the swagger. The things people were afraid to own, now they are saying, this rally israel. I can afford it. Propels the rally one more leg higher. Tracey and who continues this . Peter it is very high, especially with the actions of mario draghi. You see various programs and a trend where u. S. Companies tap into europe. Tap into that new wealth of demand. That will create the supply here with a shortage of supply, which continues to get tighter. Tracey you can see bloombergs highyield index. It is almost completely recovered from the depths of february, which is amazing. You mentioned the ecb, and the ecb last week announced a huge Corporate Bond<\/a> buying program. If we are going to talk about liquidity, also, liquidity is also in europe. How will that impact u. S. Market . Peter he will start with u. S. Treasuries start selling off a little bit. On the 10 year. Qe demand is all in europe, not over here. We have the willingness of the fed to overheat. They are not afraid of inflation, they seem to want to push it up. I can understand why you want to own a twoyear or fiveyear bonds. You have to be careful. What if the fed gets its wishing gets above 2 inflation, particularly six months to a year if they rest on hot for a while . Tracey is this the idea that over the longer term, even if inflation is over 2 , it could still be very low . Peter yes. Used the you see cpi a little bit above, but we could run 2. 5 inflation for a year and still only average 2 for the past two to three years. The tendency will be to let this run a little bit more, overheat the economy, and give one final push along with what draghi is doing. The same in china as well. Every central bank is try to push us over that,. Tracey so the default cycle we have all been worried about will be extended . Peter i think it pushes us off. If treasury yield is higher, that is the same for Corporate Bond<\/a>s. One thing that is holding off real money or investors, tension funds, their overall low yield. If we get higher treasury yields, demand for corporate is higher. And the banks are so healthy, they are incentivized to push people over the years. While they are healthy and continue to make money, they can be more willing to work with companies to renegotiate, extend. The fall cycle will be drawn out. People will get you saw the big short. It will be like that. You are paying for all the time. We could be in a nice little period we get some commons on the side of market. Tracey timing seems to be tricky because people have been talking about crossing this for years now. Peter it is all about timing. Credit, there is nothing as unique. We look at the big short, there are huge amounts of debt traded at 10 days. Nothing short. If your short at 10 , youve got to be ready pretty quickly, because if it isnt your potential return. Dietz into your potential return. It becomes more interesting in the credit. Quickly, lets talk about ecb bond buying program. What impact will this have on that market given that it has already been so competitive to buy new bonds . Peter the only real hope is that it forces money into real companies. One set i would look at, i have been told and verified is weve seen correlation for auto sales and lonely availability. Taking that to an extreme. If loans are available, someone will use it. There is time to spark that. I was very, i was expecting our own site to be dovish. They cannot want to hold him back. He is going to press forward. Really are in. Everyone will make this push to see if we can get over the hump and break free. Tracey is a great points. On the search for yields, they are even lower. Is that exacerbating the demise of the credit bubble to come . Peter yes, it will leave everything overexposed after the rally. No money to trade to cover losses. That is the real risk. I dont know how we will excavate ourselves. We were getting close in january when the fed was letting us go through the period volatility, and now we are back in the cycle of investing in banks, which leaves us with longerterm loans. What can we do to prove it not to work . Tracey thank you so much. Scarlet coming up, we have the chart that explains why oil is rallying. Alec still coming with that one. Alix i am alix steel. Why oil is rallying. I have the charts to prove it. Take a look inside. ,il prices were following because they have seen so much of supply, they would have to go into floating storage, because we just had too much. Immediate prices fell even further. This chart proves trade no longer works. This is the difference between wti one month and a seven month features. What you pay now versus seven months. As you can see here, that difference has been shrinking. The more it rallies, the smaller that gap becomes. The idea is that you cant just buy oil and then sell it forward in a few months time. Tracey but right around here it may have been profitable when the difference was eight dollars or nine dollars. Her extensive to store oil offshore. But as the line increases, it will become more difficult to store it offshore. That idea means the markets are tighter and we think. You dont need to floating storage. If we needed it, prices would be lower. Goldman sachs says because of that, he will not have the blowout great concern that perhaps the work is over. I love the alex titled that where is my cotango. [laughter] scarlet almost. Tracey i am going to go look at stocks for a second. Nowhere near as interesting as but it stands with alliteration. We have a blackout the bank for corporate chair by back really keeping up ahead of the earnings season which kicks off next month. We have had so many people worried about the fragility of the rally in stocks, and one of the things i worry about is the idea that corporations are the only big buyers in stocks right now. The next couple of weeks should provide us with an interesting experiment in which there arent that many share buybacks and we can see what impact that has. Scarlet we have seen with this go around, since february 11 ,hen jp morgan was disclosing that led to recovery. We saw other banks indicated they bought back shares as well. That has all been fueled by this advance. Tracey this will be an interesting market dish. Sorlet petri dish sounds biological. I am looking at china manufacturing. How many different ways can you read it . There is a reading from kai shang that only goes back three years. That is the green line. And the satellite imagery. So looking at these, bloomberg space, which uses space imagery to track 3000 Industrial Facilities<\/a> in china. People who doubts the Government Official<\/a> data. Alix so you actually brought Us Manufacturing<\/a> data from space. Tracey it looks better than the official pmi. Scarlet i am glad you bring that up. This gives us more time, you get an earlier read than the government read, and also it is indicating a shrinkage, but nonetheless. We would hear from mervyn king. That is next. Oh, hi micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. announcer were taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the 60s. Well celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. Therell be over 40 Live Performances<\/a> featuring eric burdon the animals, micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving Fort Lauderdale<\/a> and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. Youll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 funfilled celebrity interactive events. Cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well. The flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. Let your freak flag fly. Dont miss the grooviest trip at sea. Mark lets get the first word news. President obama and cuban president raul castro met today in havana, following talks at the palace of the revolution. They held a joint press conference. Mr. Obama called his business in cuba a new day relation between the two countries and he urged to hi them to seize economic opportunities. Economic the blockade is the most important issue to the cuban people. North korea has test fired Ballistic Missiles<\/a> into the sea. South korea says kim jonguns regime wash five shortrange missiles today. Earlier this month the Un Security Council<\/a> passed sanctions to punish the north for another Missile Launch<\/a> and a nuclear test. The National Football<\/a> league says they are looking at a regularseason game in china as early as the 2018 season. Details have been settled, including where the game would be played, but several team say they are willing to go. News, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. The s p 500 posted its fourth straight day gains. Lets look ahead to asian markets, opening in just a couple hours. Paul allen is in sydney. Paul a good day across the asian pacific, new zealand already trading, and we are expecting gains from the nikkei asx as well. Is more to do with the ceo, who suddenly resigned yesterday after four and a half years in charge. This is to do with a probe by the federal pulleys over abettin betting agency in samedia, round about the time they were looking for an online betting license. That looks a lot like a bribe, so police were investigating, although he says the opportunity never went ahead. However the ceo of a sex needs to be whiter than white, so he has stepped down. The country looks set for a historic early election with both houses of parliament to be dissolved. What is going on . Paul they are currently occupied by rather niche interests, so voting reforms passed last week, in the Prime Minister<\/a> is challenging them to reject bills they have already rejected. If that happened, it will be held on july 2. Alix whatd you miss . Mervyn king talked on bloomberg television. He talked about how Central Banks<\/a> are impacting currencies. In essence, the Central Banks<\/a> are trying to push down the exchange rates. Most countries in the world can say now if only the rest of the world was growing normally, we would be fine. Whats left . Push down the exchange rate. But everyone can. So far, most countries have been trying to do that at the expense of the u. S. Dollar. And now the Federal Reserve<\/a> is concerned. Alix the former governor also weighed in on the united kingdom, and why they are safer now than they were before. I think it is much better than it was. A point where to the size of banks is over 500 of gdp in britain compared to less than 100 in the United States<\/a>, of leverage make some very fragile. The amount of Equity Capital<\/a> the banks have has certainly a big improvement. I think it needs to go further, but that is not an immediate issue. But the banks are feel that the system is safer than it was . I dont think it is safer because of the massive legislation. I think it is safer lawyers and compliance purposes but i dont think it is a Healthy Development<\/a> for the Banking System<\/a>, where people and operating feel if they have to go to a Compliance Officer<\/a> before they can move. Far in gone too regulation. What we need to focus on is two things a simple leverage ratio to to ensure banks are less likely to become solvent, broker in call a pawn which Central Banks<\/a> have to take on insurance, upfront, mandatory insurance, such that they would be eligible to receive liquidity in a crisis. Those recommendations about Bank Liquidity<\/a> in this book that you didnt make when you were in the gove governor and the bank f england why not . Because i think several things only came into my mind as the result of the experience of the crisis. It was only a result of going back and reading the history, understanding how banking has changed since the 19th century, when i came to the view that the , ast reform is not a Many American<\/a> economists argue, ending National Reserve<\/a> banking, but to accept that banks need to engage in maturity transformation and ensure they take out insurance upfront so they would be able to pay off depositors in the event of a bank to seediscouraging is it the assetbacked Securities Market<\/a> thriving . Not enough as changed, perhaps. I do think there has been a fundamental changed, but i think there has been too much detailed regulation. The other regulation heilemann on top of the other. One feels like a parent looking at the kitchen window and chatting to the children, johnny i dont know what you are doing, but whatever it is, stop it. Dont wantt we would don the Banking System<\/a> to do. We want them to benefit the customers, and to do that we needed to be broadly stable. Simple measures to ensure the Banking System<\/a>he are infinitely more important than thousands upon thousands of pages of rules. There are many people here in the u. S. That few individuals have been held to account for what happened. You wrote at blaming individuals is counterproductive. What do you say to those who there were human beings responsible for these errors, they should be held to account . I would like to try and persuade people that they read the book, that this was not the result of one or small number of individuals making mistakes. This was a problem with the system. We inherited a system that we didnt look at a deeply enough and change it. Id like to say to people dont worry about revenge. Dont get mad, get even. The right way to do this is to put the Banking System<\/a> in a form that we know is not going to be vulnerable to the fragilitys we saw in the past. That is doable, in my view. We can build on the experience of the crisis, make our Banking System<\/a> safer, and we dont need to engage in symbolic gestures like thousands of my new regulations or thinking that a few individuals are the people to blame. Those individuals have been replaced by different individuals. King. T that was mervyn fall Consumer Confidence<\/a> correlates with the rise of donald trump, next. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Visiting cubaa today, making the first such trip for 90 years. The u. S. And cuba have had one of the worlds strangest relationships. Think of it a caribbean island nation of 11 Million People<\/a> locked in a 50 year standoff with the superpower. Now with the reestablishment of ties an easing of trade embargo, these once bitter enemies become good neighbors. Here is how we got to the current situation. The u. S. Severed relations with cuba in 1961, after its leader, fidel castro, allied with the soviet union at the height of the cold war. When the u. S. Failed to remove castro at the bay of pigs, they imposed a trade embargo, and that is how things stood for a half century. But then relationships formally resumed in july, 2015. Today, i can announce that the United States<\/a> has agreed to formally reestablish diplomatic relations with the republic of cuba. It was made possible by cubas release of a jailed american contractor. Part of the deal with the u. S. , expanding freedoms and freeing political prisoners. Side, barack obama used executive authority to make it easier for u. S. Citizens to travel to cuba. Removed2015, the u. S. Cuba from state sponsors of terrorism. Unit is being removed from the state departments terror watchlist. Gitmo was not part of the deal. Now, heres the argument. Obama says he wants the u. S. Trade embargo on cuba fully lifted, but that would require that congress. On cuba, we are ending a policy that was long past expiration date. Many opponents of normalization say hes giving credence to a dying dictatorship. The bottom line . Without the support of congress, these changes could be undone by the next president. Scarlet whatd you miss . Is booming bt you can see it there with the orange line and consumer Economic Confidence<\/a> is falling. You have more debt and you dont feel great about the economy. Peter atwater is the leader of financial insight, studying the changes. How does this explain the rise of trump . I think it is indicative of a consumer that is stressed right now. I like to see consumer borrowing increasing, Consumer Confidence<\/a> rising. What you are seeing is stagnant retail sales, Consumer Confidence<\/a> falling, and suddenly, credit card borrowings are spiking amid low gas prices. The consumer is hitting their highest cost form of debt in an extraordinary volume for apparently no reason. That says to me that the consumer is in a much more precarious position than i think people expect. Alix so they express their outrage by voting for donald trump . Well, they express their outrage, because if you start to look at it by breaking it into segments, the average republicans level of confidence today is the same as it was the weekend Lehman Brothers<\/a> collapsed. And thats the blue line. Thats an incredible statement on seven years of chronic under confidence. That level is not modest that is a really distressed, depressed confidence. I think that is what you are seeing manifesting in the appeal for trump. Scarlet we also see the white line tracking democrats. That is rising. You look at how rising confidence would tend to benefit Hillary Clinton<\/a> rather than donald trump. Yes. We areidence rises, naturally drawn to centrist candidates. We look for compromise; we look for agreement. Scarlet heres what i understand. Economic confidence goes up, big for clinton, Economic Confidence<\/a> goes down, big for trump. About things pretty good . Retail sales are holding up, lower gas prices, jobs are improving. You think so, but the data are saying that there are two americas out there. There is a general fewer things are doing well, but there is a large segment of consumer economy thats quite distressed. Scarlet one thing that people question a lot is whether donald but one honest, statement he has been very forthright about and i feel like is honest if he is not elected, there could be wrong its. We talked about the genie being out of the bottle. Violence at trump rallies. How do you bottle that up again if he is not elected . Alix we have Consumer Confidence<\/a> falling, what ha ppens . On theconvention republican side is getting very interesting. I dont see at current levels that there is any possibility of an agreement. ,he risk of violence is highly hes right. You could easily see the party, y come apart unless there is real clarity. Tracey what does this bifurcation in confidence have in terms of impact on the market . I think it is telling in the markets in that you have this really manic behavior, so i think there is still an overlay bad is it good, is it playing out in the market. Look at the volatility in the s p, and its red or black, black or white every day. Alix the democratic confidence level is moving up. You make the point that it is a lot weaker than we think, because sanders has not been forced to concede. Yeah. There is a general view that hillary is a slamdunk at the convention, just looking at the number of delegates. But it is remarkable to me that there has been no pressure put on it on sanders to withdraw; not by the media, not by the public, not by the democratic party. That is quite telling at this stage of the process. Enough,d be being told, we need to come together around hillary, and i dont hear that message from anyone. Scarlet good to see you. Peter atwater. Odys hasnews movie put Deutsche Bank<\/a> on review for a possible downgrade due to what they call execution challenge. The company has been changing leadership and recalibrated Strategic Plan<\/a> in november, so they say the operating environment has worsened for Deutsche Bank<\/a>, increasing the high level of execution challenges in structural cost issues and new Strategic Plan<\/a>. Deutsche bank shares are trading lower in extended trading. Like he went back to the future last week at the unveiled self lacing sneakers. Next, we will dig into the numbers to see how its financials look. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Nike shares climbed to threemonth highs today after they increased their price target and added a stock to a focus list. Lets dig deeper in todays the numbers dont lie. The bulk of their sales growth comes from footwear, which is the orange line. In apparel, the blue line, nike these Womens Clothing<\/a> is its biggest growth opportunity. They currently make up less than 1 5 of their total sales. When it comes to profitability, their Gross Margins<\/a> have been expanding steadily since 2012 and are close to 10 year highs, but currency volatility may put pressure on them in the near term. Has to the u. S. , nike concerns about chinas slowing economy. They jumped 24 in the last quarter to almost 950 million; the contrast with north america, the orange bars, are pretty stark. The china story is only getting better. This way line shows how future deliveries for the mainland, for hong kong, and taiwan expanded 34 . We cant talk about nike without mentioning march madness. They represent 60 of the 50 teams competing in the ncaa mens basketball tournament. When it comes to performance, theyre trailing adidas since it started back in november. He will be keeping an eye on their earnings. Alix thank you so much. We will be right back. Scarlet we have with us on the phone dan schulman, the ceo of paypal, and he is in cuba right now. He joins us now. Tell us more about why you are into the today on this historic day. President isw, the visiting cuba for the first time and almost 90 years. He invited a number of American Business<\/a> leaders, as we are talking with entrepreneurs and other businesses in cuba about furthering his steps for commercial ties. There,uring your trip talking to other ceos, what is still the single biggest risk to putting down roots in cuba . , both the right now u. S. Government in the cuban government are still establishing the guidelines for exactly how trade is to be conducted. That, although those guidelines are still being finalized, the energy, the enthusiasm thats evident in the room right now is such that i think it is inevitable that full commercial relations will open between cuba and the United States<\/a>. Its really in my mind a matter of when, not if. Talk to us a little bit about your new business, zoom. That will play a big role in how you expand your business in cuba. Yeah. I think the first evidence that expand the global l remittance platform. 2 billion is remitted from the u. S. To cuba every year, and that has been done in very timeconsuming and expensive ways. We hope that we will be able to establish a service with zoom by the end of the year, and that should create a faster way to send money and a less expensive obviously is important for the cuban people receiving it. Scarlet we are looking at a live shot of president obama speaking at an entrepreneur conference in havana. How quickly do you think you can set up shop in cuba . Wit whats that . Scarlet how quickly do you think you can get your business going . We are working with cuban authorities and the u. S. Treasury to try and expedite that. But we expect no later than the end of this year. We should have service hopefully sooner than that, but we want to make sure it is compliant with all the regulatory laws that cuban authorities have and u. S. Authorities have as well. Were pushing hard, in sooner is better than later. Scarlet paypal options were very active today, on speculation that the Company Might<\/a> partner up with mastercard, these, or american express. Do you see that kind of opportunity in cuba . I think paypal is a vibrant, growing business. Obviously, digital and mobile payments are exploding. That is connecting the world together. As i talk with cuban entrepreneurs down here, they are eager to connect to paypals Global Customer<\/a> base and support crossborder trade. I think all of us can play a part in helping keep the economy growing and creating better commercial prize. Alix thanks very much for joining us. Dan schulman, paypal president and ceo joining us over the phone. Thats all for whatd you miss . Thank you so much for watching. Scarlet you will see you back your tomorrow. Al i al huntm. Mark im mark halperin. Mr. Turnbull goes to washington. Mr. Trump goes to washington. Mr. Trump goes to washington. Mr. Trump, as you mentioned, goes to washington. Mark greetings from the bloomberg washington bureau, down the road from where both parties are getting ready for","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia801306.us.archive.org\/14\/items\/BLOOMBERG_20160321_200000_Whatd_You_Miss\/BLOOMBERG_20160321_200000_Whatd_You_Miss.thumbs\/BLOOMBERG_20160321_200000_Whatd_You_Miss_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240624T12:35:10+00:00"}