Oneday decline in almost a month. Joe definitely not too dramatic to getting to be a bit more of a selloff. Won a look at the inversion stocks we were looking at today on the new doj. Allergan was off by 15 . The worst performer in the s p. You also have Progressive Waste Solutions and apple. All of these guys are looking for some kind of mergers or inversions that could be stymied by the treasury rolls. Mike mckee has the best that of the day when it comes to allergen, erasing almost 20 billion of market cap in one day , and the treasury trying to save 20 billion over 10 years. They erased it from allegan and are trying to help the Treasury Department get it over 10 years. I love the juxtaposition between those stats. Joe i want to talk about interesting stuff in fixed income, interestrate world. Bund 10 year yields falling to the lowest level in about a year. You expect to see the riskon scenario, Interest Rates rising. Not happening here. This is the ultimate safe haven. People are buying hand over fist 10 year yield at one point below 0. 1 . The other thing that is happening, meanwhile, his treasured volatility or lack thereof. Index, kind ofch like the vix but for treasuries, also plunging. Pretty much everywhere you look you are not see much volatility. This is the chart on your screen. Treasury volatility falling to its lowest level in a long time. Very quite happening there. In terms of currencies it is all about the end, briefly breaching the 110 level. You are looking at the dollar versus the yen. The line going down indicates dollar weakness versus yen strength. So much for the bank of japans plan to boost inflation through negative Interest Rates. Pretty critical because a lot of strategists say it may be the level where it increases the risk of some kind of intervention. Alix im looking at commodities could i want to point out that what happens to oil over the last 10 days, we have a 10 day intraday chart of oil. Continued slow grind lower. Oil right around 100day moving average. It did spike higher today into the close. However, kuwait is saying perhaps there will be an oil freeze even if iran is not part of it. Nonetheless, that illustrates the riskoff field when it comes to oil over the last week and a half. Scarlet those are todays market minutes. Lets take a deep dive into bloomberg. About why oil prices are falling, i talk a lot about position. The truck comes to us from citigroup. Chart comes to us from citigroup. Three types of positioning. The first is managed money. Shat is basically the spec youve got in here. That is the blue line. Falling slightly. The swap dealers, etf guys. That is also relatively falling. On the flipside, merchant longs. Basically, producers who want to belong the market. They are probably shorting right now and that is why you are seeing the merchant longs continue to go down. Chriss visit i think that because these are so many etfs in there, when they roll over, boom, you see this selloff, the continued decline in longs, boom, you see the selloff. That is light you see oil tread so closely. 35 a barrel. Joe for a long time we have been talking about this idea that the fed is the only game in town. All about what the fed does and that is what is driving these markets. For a long time that seemed to be true. This is a chart from Societe Generale did it tracks the white line, the s p futures, and the green light is the eurodollar futures. As the green line is going up that is an indication they are thinking there will be more hikes in the future. Time this moved in lockstep because the market crashes or pledges, people say the fed is going to hold off a while. When the market rallies, people think, oh, the fed is going to hike. Tilde pop up. Lately we have seen a fairly solid rally off the midfebruary lows. Expectations for rate hikes probably are due to find job owning and really pushed back. Betweento disconnect the market for equities mark udall expect from the fed. Will discontinue will discontinue . If the market were to resume its rally, will people price in fed hikes again or does the market have further to go down . Scarlet we will have to watch thursday night into friday when a janet yellen speaks. Joe yes, exactly. Scarlet at what point do u. S. Stocks look expensive this is a line in the sand right there. This is the currency of the chief Market Strategist at oppenheimer. He says valuations turned into a burden from a blessing in less than three must because the s p 500 climbed last week from a low of 16. 5 in midfebruary. Over the past year the s p 500 couldnt overcome the hurdle of 19. Five 3, 4, and again, instances of it bumping up right against it and coming back down. Something to keep an eye on as you head into earning season. Joe does it also suggest we will see Earnings Growth . You would think. You can see all these charts and more on twitter. David bloom,go to joining us from our london studio, and his big call, the global currency war is over. Scarlet david, we need to start with the yen. The strongest it has been since 2014. At one point do you think the bank of japan will intervene and will be effective . David if dollaryen were to plunge in a short space of time, yes. At the time to shut the moment, peace has broken up and im saying give these a chance. All we are saying is give peace a chance. Ecb, they are using the credit channel. They are not using the currency channel. The dollar has come off. The renminbi is starting to soften. A big evaluation has come out. Commodities have rally. And emerging markets are rallying. That is beautiful. Joe this [laughter] this idea that the currency war is coming to an end is a popular idea that more and more people are talking about. Interesting call from David Service of jefferies. He also has this view the currency war has come to an end. If the ecb and boj are going to focus more on balance sheetled credit easing and less on zerosumstyle riskfree real right easing, while other central u. S. Is going to hold off on strengthening the dollar by running a hot economy, the emerging market is a much more stable place. Do you agree that if there is detente david that is what i just said in english. [laughter] somewas read to me was kind of economic or gobbledygook, but in english, that is what is going on joe do you agree that em is the beneficiary david absolutely. Of course could this is a purple patch for emerging markets. Large from some of these companies and 10 yields in some countries. Every time you go to sleep and then you wake up and the page view. Page you. Talk about that he spoke about volatility you spoke about volatility could the markets are stabilizing. Great for emerging markets. We are so worried about china anymore. Now to ave turned out little purple patch for emerging markets. And we do have a chart that sort of illustrates what you are talking about. If you look at the msx volatilities, equally weighted index, you can really see every time there was a central bank move volatility increased in particular with the boj in 2013 and the recent negative right move in the euro zone. What is the trigger for the next currency war . David the trigger would be if you got some dramatic slowdown in some country or as suggested earlier, dollaryen at 105, heading to 100, and the japanese go we cant take this anymore and they come in with massive intervention. That will break the truce. I want i wouldnt say the currency wars ended by a truce has broken out. Might be on the state, i be on purpose could but using the currency as a tool the japanese got the yen from 80, 80, to 125, and they still dont have growth in inflation. Why carry on something that is harmful and doesnt work . This is where i agree with the point you write out earlier. They are trying a new channel and that is causing the currency markets to relax a bit in the markets can rally and china is in a better space and it is just a fantastic time at the moment. Things are a little calm her. Scarlet a little calm her. If the currency war is over, those that enter low volatility . That is the case, what could disrupt that . David well, that is the question you start off, dollaryen. Japanese get cold feet with a field at dollaryen is slicing through quickly. The balance sheet, percentage of gdp, it looks like godzilla. It is enormous. 7080 of gdp. If they get all that and it is not working, might as well intervene. Back where we started great that could be bad news. For the moment, things are good, and i think some of the trades like absolute fantastic at the moment. David bloom of hsbc, thank you for joining us. Back if wall street pulls from the troubled Energy Sector come one investors stepping in. Is it the rise of the shadow Banking System . Because, fegley, there are folks here in america graft taken advantage of the same stuff. A lot of it is legal but that is exactly the problem. Meanshouse ways and Committee Chairman kevin brady criticized actions as punitive and says his committee will work on his own plan. Delete financial documents have claimed the first casualty. Icelands Prime Minister has resigned bitterly of the countrys president rejected earlier the countrys president rejected Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson s attempts to dissolve the government. Mexico will replace current ambassador to the u. S. With the countrys previous consul general here in the u. S. The shift comes following mr. Trumps increase comments on making the border wall and was in mexico and forcing mexico to pay for it. While meeting with the g7 Foreign Ministers in japan, secretary of state john kerry next week will visit a memorial for victims of the u. S. Bombing of hiroshima. Senior u. S. He most official ever to do so. Local news 24 hours a day powered by a 2400 journals in more than 150 music euros around the world. 150 news bureaus around the world. Im mark crumpton. Alix whatd you miss . Shadow Banking System for energy. Banks are running scared. Energyre pulling back on exposures of others step in, like alliancebernstein. She shot is the head of fixed income as it i she show as hish shah the head of fixing, and joins me now. Where do you see opportunity . Ashish we see it in a number of different spots. Obviously theres opportunity in the liquid highyield markets where the bonds have been decimated and there has been quite a bit of pain in that sector and we are seeing opportunities as the better quality copies move into the highyield market. Alix where else . What are the opportunities do you guys see . Ashish you mentioned the banks and they are offering secure financing and now they are starting to pull back and we will see three determinations coming in over the next month or two and that means there is going to be less capital available for these companies. That is an opportunity for investors to step in and provide the capital and generate attractive returns. Thanks go in and reassess how much money they will loan based on the underlying commodity price and we see this petroleum, great example. They already cut almost by half. What are the returns that you are expecting . Ashish if you focus on senior secured type of lending you can make 1015 type of returns with an under tremendous amount not a tremendous amount of downside risk. As they say on tv, this is not something you want to try on your own. You want to make sure you have a manager that has those skill sets. But as you move down the capital structure into the highyield bond market you have opportunities to generate something more like 20 types of returns and we have seen those opportunities come in over the course of the last month. Alix you are not the only ones out there looking for energy opportunities. We have seen other areas and kkr is the latest can announcing a vehicle of the point five 3 billion. I spoke with a head, jimmy once time, earlier jamie weinstein, earlier. If you are looking at oil and gas, we think it is too early. We think the pricing of the assets and credits does not yet reflect the much lower for longer environment in oil prices , so we have to wait and we have waited. Alix what do you think about that . Csi for the public asset and the largest assets, but as you mentioned, there are companies that are getting their capital pool as we speak and over the next six, 12, 18 months, the opportunities will develop your you have to be on the ground to take advantage of them and now is the time youre supposed to be looking at them. Alix looking at more private companies, then . Ashish i think were looking at a mix of the 2 and there are opportunities in the markets, bonds rallying 20, 30 over the course of last month. Those are still tactical opportunities. They are not the longerterm strategic opportunities. Alix is there a price where you say all something that is where it will be for us . Ahish anything below 30 over long horizon creates attractive opportunities. No question the lower the price goes, the bigger the opportunities going forward. Alix does that mean you wind up holding a lot of shale assets with prices going under 30 . Ashish there are shale assets that can generate attractive returns. They are not going to make a tremendous amount of recurrence but they will make attractive returns. Guilty if you are real key if you are buying them with the price and the prices that 50 that creates a huge upside opportunity. Alix the reason the companies are having such a problem now is because the debt load . Ashish part of the reason they are having such a problem is the investors themselves, whether it is highyield investors or banks , have to much energy exposure. It is more about what the investors are doing then a necessarily just about the companies. Alix what is your oil price call, shortterm, longterm . Ashish shortterm briefly to be in the 30, 40 price range. We see technological innovation. 50 a barrel in next two years. That is not an outlandish price. Alix it is happening, new capital into the energy market. , thank you very much. Scarlet still ahead, market inefficiencies and which managers he likes. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Steve cohen is stepping back from his role as Portfolio Manager but he says it is not because there arent opportunities in the markets. Steve spoke to the bloomberg go team earlier today. Hard to be a fabric with every more balance in the World Economy when you are talking about the german 10year bond yield being 10 aces points, negative yields throughout the world. That does not seem to be a place of equilibrium of where things will find balance. It seems imbalanced. Stephanie in the beginning of this year people were concerned because they were comparing it to 2008 and why we dont have the leverage in the system like in 2008, are fundamental better or worse today as they were then . That for you was a booming year in part because you took advantage of the fundament else. Steve it is more difficult today to find, relative to 2008, more difficult to find rate and balances but there are some. I would say the opportunity is the inefficiency of market is growing, not shrinking. Really . What accounts for that . We, particularly since 2008, seen the rise of index funds, etfs. We have seen less and less banks the lawsuit the wall street banks to find states and markets. I think the search for inefficiency in markets is that has been decreasing for years. Has meanthat is that that has led to some of the lack of equilibrium and markets. Stephanie but then why have hedge funds had a lousy couple of years . Those banks dont exist anymore and everybody worth their salt interbank ran to the buy side, why didnt we see the buy side perform . Should create opportunities for the hedge funds. Ve we are in a phase there are times when hedge funds have a challenge because hedge funds themselves are not doing well, and what that means is sometimes they get redemptions. For example, we talk about the fixed income fund, and we have had our annualized return over the last eight years is 24 a year. Stephanie pretty good. Steve a dollar in 2008 is six dollars today. And yet last year we had our first negative year. We were down between 2 and 3 . We lost about half our assets. Stephanie why . What are investors telling you . Why with a look at the lifetime return and say that this works . Partly a function of the fact in general, hedge funds have not had a great period. We have been talking about that for the better part of a year. That is part of it. People to have short memories. One thing i want to talk about today is typically, hedge funds riod of hedge funds doing poorly do incredibly well. 1998 was a terrible year for hedge funds for longterm capital prices. Hedge funds to dwell in 1999. After 2008, most did not perform poorly in 2008 and a lot of them did great in 2009. Tend to be meanreverting. The managers you should be investors in investing with our managers with a great track record who had a bad run. I think that is a great set of people to believe in. I have always been a fan of david einhorn. Im big fan of him as an investor and a person. Kuhnet that was steve partner, import for women, but not for long. Alix Panama Papers have caused shockwaves around the world. We examine the fallout, next. Mark i am mark crumpton. Wisconsin voters have been going to the polls all day for that states primary. Surveys show ted cruz is leading donald trump. For the democrats, polls show Bernie Sanders with a narrow lead over hillary clinton. Granted tons relief iran under the landmark nuclear deal wont mean access to the u. S. Financial system, according to a Senior Obama Administration official who today said reports tehran would be allowed to deal directly with u. S. Banks are inaccurate. In china, pakistan, and syria have been named in the socalled Panama Papers. The documents released by the International Consortium of investigative journalists sunday say that syrian president bashar government created shell companys to avoid international sanctions. It also link to family members of pakistans Prime Minister to offshore companies in the British Virgin islands. Jinpingsesident xi brotherinlaw is also mention in the doctrines, which china has to announced as part of a conspiracy. Global news 24 hours a day powered by at 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. I am mark crumpton. Alix, joe, scarlet . Scarlet stocks are falling with the s p posting its steepest loss in about a month. This is a continuation of the false we saw yesterday and the declin