Minutes, the dow up almost 200 points. The s p 500 gaining two and higher for the week. It was a bit of a tossup which way we would end but it does look like its a positive number for the week. If this was the dows best day since september 12 and within the different sectors looking at financial and energy, those two groups leading the gains in the s p 500. It wasnt a bad week in terms of volume. You had an average of 10 billion shares. Im going to jump into what happened specifically in the stock market today, looking at a couple sectors that were the winners and losers. We will start with the losers. There was only one group down, and that was the Utilities Group trait i thought it was interesting because if you look below, the staples still gained 94 basis points. A bit of a diverging story in terms of the higheryielding stock. Utilities there are much more projected to the yield play. That is interesting. The Energy Companies doing pretty well, this has been a big part of the market that has come back into play as you watch commodities and oil get a little more volatile. A little bit of gains here in the energy sector. Happened on the week, this is the story of the week. You cant talk about any markets, whether you are looking at bonds, stocks, without talking about Deutsche Bank and the financials group. Solid rebound overall of Deutsche Bank, beyond just the news after the doj fines, these stocks have been going down for a long time to write a little bit of relief, financials groups still ended in the red. The week, infotech pretty boring. Tech stocks had been doing really well and they just kind of faded this week, so we will see if they come back. Andou mentioned twice rates the effect they had on stocks. Utilities and financials keyed off rates to some extent. Today you saw a rebound in yields. That is something that generally has been on a downtrend here. The twoyear yield up three basis points, the 10 year, four basis points to 1. 6 . You had the Deutsche Bank stat, but you had the bump up in yields, something a bit of a relief for the financial stocks, and also hurt the utilities conversely. If you look at the month and what we have seen for rates, it has been interesting. It has gone nowhere. Yes, you have a rise in rates midmonth. We heard from the fed and got the indication that we could get a rate increase but not until december. A trap once again coming out of that meeting, only a 2 basis point increase overall in the month. At her and sees, we have some relief on the Deutsche Bank funds. Theres an encouraging Inflation Report in europe that shows inflation and the euro area picked up in september to the fastest case since late 2014. The euro gaining versus the franc on speculation the Swiss National bank may have intervened, selling the franc. The spokesman declined to comment on that possibility. I included the rand to show it is firmer in line with that risk trade. For the week, the focus has to 21 n the mexican peso, up versus the u. S. Dollar, or a should say up 21 , the best performer versus the u. S. Dollar. There are the gains the u. S. Dollar has made versus the mexican peso. Slumped as Donald Trumps odds of being president increased and he did not win the president ial debates on monday and that sent him lower in the polls. That boosted the peso. Mexicos Central Bank Raised Interest rates this week to make it more expensive for traders to use a peso to hedge risks out as well. We had all that Deutsche Bank news breaking. Important to see what kind of action they take to try and stay me what has been happening. Stymie what has been happening. The peso is tied to commodities. First, a quick look at corn prices for the day. They headed for their biggest gain in 2 weeks, a government u. S. Report that showed stock piles trailed analysts estimates. For the week, oil prices moved around. The big news was that opec wti nor neither surpassed it. You see brent is at 50, but they do finish the week higher. We got to that 50 level for brent and crude. Those are todays market minutes. Lets take a deep dive into the bloomberg. I want to look at treasuries and what we saw for the Third Quarter what might need to come out as well. Treasuries over the course of this year thus far. If you want to look at the Third Quarter in particular, you have it from here to here. Been any there has uptrend in treasuries over that period of time. I have these yellow dotted lines because there are such a divergence in terms of where we are going next, what are Central Banks around the globe, what is the Federal Reserve going to do . Do have Goldman Sachs predicting a 10 year treasury rate of 2 . On the other hand, morgan 5 . Nley looking for 1. 2 theres a next ordinary amount of uncertainty out there right now, and disagreement and debate among different banks, investors, and strategists about what is going to happen. A lot of it hinges on the fed, but also, what is the state of the u. S. Economy. Is it healthy, is it not healthy. The data has not been conclusive enough one way or another for these economists to make a very clear prediction. The divide mirrors what is happening in the Federal Reserve as well. Next, right . Lets go with more forecasts. I love that chart. Journalists love to talk about when major strategists diverge from wanting each others opinion. There is so much at stake there because we know the markets move together. Im going to jump in and look at the holiday rally. Its a little early, but lets talk about Christmas Tree stock investors know there is the seasonal rally that typically happens at the end of the year. Her last three months of any year since 1970 are the best for stocks and since the bull market started, your quarterly return in the Fourth Quarter is twice the next best quarter. That is indicated by the blue line here. Guess what, we are not going anywhere. Trading is at that level. Of the 19 strategies we survey at bloomberg, they are predicting the market to go pretty much nowhere. Reason why this is nowhere, if i take this back 5 years, that blue line 82 of the time its above the white line. 82 of the time, strategists for the past decade have predicted that the market is going to go higher than its current level. Some of the despite recent upgrades by some strategists after the fed chose the hold rates where they were, but it wasnt enough to put their estimate much higher. Markets will have a pretty flat line from here. From here, but still an increase on the year. 2017 we have five estimates right now. We are predicting the markets to 1 2, 2300. To 22 scarlet we have covered bonds and equities. Lets look at commodities. When you look at commodity you will sees, that nickel was the secondbest performing middle this quarter, up about 12 . Besttil today, it was the performing middle. Then kind of overtook it in the final day. Only orange juice and sugar did that are. Lead did better than both of tradingadenickel, around a six week high after an unexpectedly stringent mining audit in the philippines, which is a top for suppliers. Philippines mining an audit. Ailed being shut down around the country, 20 more minds to be shut down in the coming days. Tighter supply lead to higher prices, and according to citigroups david wilson, prices could reach an average of 11,000 per metric ton in the Fourth Quarter. Being shut down around the country, 20 more minds to be shut down in the coming days. 11,700. 017 could reach something to watch out for. Julie we have headlines from viacom and this has to do with National Amusements. Something to watch out for. The viacom board has now said it has formed a special committee to evaluate that National Amusements request. For pbs andwas viacom to evaluate a combination. The viacom committee is going to do this comment it looks like comprises the various Board Members here. This is an unusual situation we have been talking about, since the Redstone Family controls all buthe companies involved, there are other shareholders well, as they try to figure out whether they are going to get together here. Scarlet they are adding independent directors. This committee is made up of independent directors, including thomas may and nicole seligman. We will continue to keep you posted on developments there. Its been a roller coaster ride for Deutsche Bank after questions about its capital alarmed investors. We will explore. This is bloomberg. Mark Officials Say the investigation into thursdays deadly train crash at the hoboken, new jersey station could take at least 7 to 10 days. The National Transportation safety board investigators have recovered the events recorder. Theyre hoping it will tell them how fast the engine transit when it train was going smashed through a concrete and steel bumper and into the train station. One person was killed, more than 100 others were injured. Hillary kentons client pain memberss campaign could be called up to serve an emergency relief and national disasters. Secretary and 10 told a rally today in florida said there is an issue concerning student debt. I believe one of the jobs of the president is to encourage more service, to help more americans answer president kennedys call. You know it. Can do what your country for you, but what you can do for your country. Mark secretary clinton struggled to attract overwhelming support among young people. This week she turned a former rival, Bernie Sanders, neck in neck with millennials drawn to thirdparty candidates. The election on president ial debates says there were problems with Donald Trumps audio during the first debate monday night. According to a one sentence statement with on the website, the commission writes, quote, there were issues with Donald Trumps audio that affected the sound level in the debate hall. Trump has said following the debate that his microphone was faulty. Rightsted nations Human Council has voted to convene a Highlevel Panel to discuss human rights in syria. The resolution passed by a vote of 267 with 14 abstentions. It calls for the panel to discuss issues like enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention and the need for accountability for violations and abuses. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Its been quite a ride for scherzer Deutsche Bank treatise or to a bloomberg reported some Hedge Fund Clients have reduced their financial exposure to the bank, sending shares to a record low. Today the stock recouped some of those losses after a report that a settlement with the department of justice may be smaller than expected. Our guest weighed in on these developments. I think we are living in an environment of zero Interest Rates, banks are in pretty good shape, earnings power is pretty good. Liquidityank was the concerned that is being alleviated today, because of the potential sediment. Certain newspapers were reporting that sentiment would come soon. Think the most important thing is to look at the overall Balance Sheet of Deutsche Bank, 215 billion of liquidity. There are questions over capital but its ability to service itself at the moment is very sound. If you look at it as an actual credit risk, is it about to go bust . Not at all. Of senior debt is there to become it comes before any of the business creditors or depositors. That effectively means 60 billion which in a crisis becomes equity and thats more than enough for Deutsche Bank to be healthy for a long time to come. Deutsche doesnt really have any issues right now. The problem is more people keep talking about it the more people keep talking about it, the harder it becomes. Its hard for somebody to be liver that much. You cant withstand shock. Levered that much. You cant withstand shock. Mike, a confidence issue. Yet here we have a person saying its not a real issue. But thats not how the stock has been performing, right . I think it was matt miller who coined the phase lizard brain. There is this part of your brain that reacts to certain things. Makeesnt necessarily rational sense. When you see a word like collateral in a headline suddenly in the middle of the day, it takes you back to 2008, when the u. S. Investment banks had a lot of problems with the clients. Liquidity. Nk has plenty of liquidity to spend. The quiddity can evaporate pretty quickly. A lot of u. S. Investors, Deutsche Bank is a big box. The contingent convertible bonds u. S. Focused investors, it has been something they have sort of watched passively go by and not really focused on when you see that alarming headline that hedge funds are calling collateral, it is a cell first and ask questions later type of thing. Even today when everyone woke up there was a good of a rebound then we heard the report that the settlement we have been game ofnto a three part chicken. The government German Government blinked. And, luckily it looks like the doj is someone blinking. They announced it at the right time or at least it leaked to af d the right time. With any of these news stories, its interesting to see when sometimess like that, it is debunked 10 minutes later, sometimes confirmed 10 minutes later. We go to the end of the day and neither debunked nor confirmed. I guess thats a positive sign. The fears of Deutsche Bank persist because of what happened earlier in the year the stock humbled to a record low in february. I concerned it wouldnt be able to make payments related to its cocoa bond. There is something familiar with this Deutsche Bank story. The liquidity issue is front and center, but the nearterm issue of the settlement with the doj is what started the selling for thisthere is something familiar. Underneath it all, where is the earnings going to come from for this bank even with all these Legal Provisions it needs to make . How does a bank make money in a negative Interest Rate environment . Theres a lot of rethinking of these european policies, and even theres a big act lash against low rates in the u. S. That is the longerterm story for Deutsche Bank, how do they get out of this funk with negative Interest Rates. Separatere a way to the woes associated specifically with Deutsche Bank and those you just hinted at, the larger issues that have been overhanging all the financial stocks and banks in the u. S. . Banks are still unchanged. People are projecting that on to the rest of that sector. This kneejerk reaction yesterday and people trying to figure out, what would this look like. In the long term, the earnings outlook is not as robust. Rebound andmassive banks since brexit. Nk of 19 in the quarter bank of america is up 19 in the quarter. People have been waiting for Interest Rates for a few years now. The good thing for banks this week was janet yellen coming out and laying the groundwork for a december rate increase. I think all the stars align for the market this week, the opec agreement so of put the floor under oil prices. Deutsche bank was somewhat resolved by the end of the week. And, even on monday the debate stuck little bit of momentum from the Trump Campaign manager people back for that certainty on the election that they had before that momentum took over. I been looking at the numbers for the quarter. If you want to look at the bloomberg, i have the various groups and how they get this werter that is the theme have been talking about, 12 on the quarter. Amazon just keeps getting record high after record high. There is still the hope there, Charlie Brown always hoped. Overall we saw 3. 3 bump in the s p 500 this quarter. A rotation we have been talking about all quarter. Of ifexit does kind youre looking at this quarter and trying to dissect it, brexit changes the picture a bit trade the market had recovered right by the end of june. Bank stocks took longer to recover. That is partially reflected their, that continued easing of concerns over brexit. The tech story is amazing, its deja vu. Apple and alphabet, microsoft, intel, amazon, apple of 18 in the quarter. That is about 10 or 12 of the s p move right there with the iphone 7 fever going on. Thanks so much, wrapping up the week and the quarter. Fast commentary, go on the bloomberg. Scarlet coming up, julie has a chart on the bacon, egg, and cheese index that you cant miss. This is bloomberg. Oliver julie we are talking about food prices that have been falling. Straight monthth we have seen a decline in the price of food at home. Rosaries, in other words. This is the rate of change for this particular urban Consumer Food at home index. Anything below the white line is a negative reading. Monthsbeen nine straight that we have seen that change. We seen a decline in food prices, a lot of components. In particular, that promised bacon, egg, and cheese index, looking at the proportion of bacon, egg, and cheese in a bacon, egg, and cheese sandwich. Obviously you see a decline in that index. We have seen all these Component Parts on the decline. Then on top of that, you have basicall