Hundred 48 schools to save millions. It will relocate a proximally 27,000 students at the end of this month. The islands financial crisis has triggered an exit is to the u. S. For the white house today fired its chief usher. The first woman to hold the job and second africanamerican. The white house would not say why she was fired. The chief usher is the general manager of the white house and typically serves a long tenure. There have been just nine of them since the beginning of the 20 century. She took the job in 2011. Global news 24 hours a day from our more than 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Julia live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im julia chatterley. Scarlet im scarlet fu. Joe im joe weisenthal. We are 30 minutes from the u. S. Scarlet the s p 500 at age two months i. Joe the question is, whatd you miss . Whatd you miss . Scarlet we dig into the jobs report. Wtide ride for crude oil, falling overnight below 40 a barrel. And this weekend is the second and final round in the french president ial election. It is decision time, macron or le pen . Joe lets look for the major averages stand as we head toward the close. Abigail doolittle is standing by. Another day of unchanged, wishywashy trading, we are looking at small gains thethe major averages and s p 500 is on pace for its first record close since march 1. It can basically close above 2396. Lets keep our eyes there. On the week, we are also looking at gains. A bit of a bullish stretcher. Turning to the top stories on the week, tech and energy. In white, that is the s p 500 tech index. On the bottom, thats the s p 500 energy index, down 4 on the week. Of course, oil has been a big story for the week. Lets take a look at a few of the stocks that helped drive tech on the top sector. Apple has another record as they put up a somewhat disappointing march quarter. They missed estimates, guidance a little bit like. But they are looking forward to the iphone eight super cycle. District systems, up 8 on the week as there is more clarity about who some of their potential eaters could be. They may not sell themselves at all. Expedia and i find are trading higher. Comments are positive on travel demand out of the european travel expo. The stock is a little bit lower on the day. They are saying that they will fight these Online Travel agents. Now its look at the energy losers. We are looking at anadarko petroleum. They were downgraded. The shares are down sharply. Marathon oil, all of these Companies Reported earnings. Of course, we have oil down 6 . What could be next for oil. We do have city saying that the technicals are really driving the markets. This chart mesa suggest back, may not suggest that. This is longer than a oneyear chart. Above the 200 Day Moving Average that has acted as buyer support oil right around those levels, but we also see over the past year there have been areas thatnsolidation in orange caused these sellers to win against the buyers, bring it back down to the longerterm support. Day rock oil below the 200 moving average. But there is a bigger range marks in blue. Marked in blue. This chart may suggest to eric walls of oppenheimer, the , that it isalyst range bound. But we could see the range break to the downside, perhaps the low 40s. That is something our Bloomberg Intelligence strategist is saying could be pretty bearish complexor the commodity and perhaps equities. Very important to keep an eye on oil, of course. Joe thanks, abigail. Julia whatd you miss . Unemployment hit a decade low. Questions remain if and when the economy is set to recover. For more, lets bring in the founder of south bay research. Strategist from bloomberg still having tv issues from the last show. Guys, thanks for joining us. Wage growth,of the payroll, the participation rate, there is stuff there for the bulls and the bears. Exactly. If youd dropped someone in and did not have background, they k. D we had payrolls over 200 what is wrong . There are definitely ways to be bullish. If you dig into the details, all of the macro signals are consistent. Mild growth. At the beginning of the year, there was small expectation. I think i mentioned deed of things are already starting to stagger, stumble little bit, slowdown, rollover. I never bought into the reflation trade. Gdp, 2 if we are lucky, mild level growth and that is what we are seeing, the second half especially. I think the fed is on autopilot, to be perfectly honest with you. Scarlet and they want to be on autopilot. They do. They sit on the panel, we know we will have a recession at some point in the future. We need to shrink the Balance Sheet. We have room after qe and perhaps at some point in the future. It is a crazy way to think about it. The economy has been essentially like this since 2010 be sent, not dipping into recession. This has been an extraordinary long recovery. Not particularly robust. Is there anything on the horizon that could change the trajectory meaningfully . I will say the word trump. I think donald was dragging down the economy. I think you see in q2 is a little release of pentup demand. I think companies are discounting the trump trade. He is not going to affect 2017. There is nothing the man can do except ring us into a war that will change the trajectory of the economy. I think companies are saying, i enough, lets get back to business. Hiringf shows a lot of has picked up. It is a release of pentup demand. Julia i want to tie together a couple things you both said. The fed is on autopilot. If that is the case, it you just said payrolls could weaken in the second half of this year. What does policy mean when we get to september and december based on what they are saying they want to do this year . I think they are locked and loaded for june unless something extraordinary happens. Then they Start Talking about timing on winding down the Balance Sheets and whether they go on december will depend on whether we get 2 growth going forward. But the markets are essentially saying no, but the fed is saying they will go anyway. Julia what does it mean for the dollar . I think it means that we have a weaker dollar. They do not think we have the trajectory. Julia what do you think question here is the dollar expert. This is not a u. S. Phenomenon. This is a global phenomenon. Maybe at some point, the dollar might get a little stronger as china suddenly stumbles and everybody does a safe haven that in every link is back into the dollar. Scarlet but certainly the u. S. Is leaving the world. The expansion and the durability of it we have nine months for we have had two periods with growth like this. This era and the clinton era. 10 years of massive growth. A lot of that came down to the regulations and 401 k s suddenly taking off and i would say basically the and are not and i always come back to the internet isause the internet deflationary, but it freed up all of is deflationary, but it freed up all of this capital. All of a sudden which really speaks to this thing youre trying to say about the internet making companies more efficient. Less volatile than it used to be. That is something a little different that is the pmi itself. You look at the inventory basically, you get back to gdp. There is a huge swing and inventories where companies have to build their stockpiles and that pushes the gdp up and all of a sudden, there is too much. If you go back i in time and you look at this, since this data point has been connected, you get to the 1990s and this crashing and burning and slowing down, so we are not getting as big a peak, we are not getting areig a trough, and we guiding in the review have lower gdp and you do not have the is obscene swings and volatility. We were talking to the Dunkin Donuts ceo yesterday and he was talking about the amazon effect, and the way that the behavior of the labor market now is very different to what it was. You talk about florists and the fact that you never go to a florist now and buy flowers or rarely. You order them online and get them sent. They connect buyer and seller a lot more efficiently. That probably is why our economy as at the forefront. We have adopted all of these market changes and we are at the forefront of this. Julia when the fed is setting policy, do they appreciate these things . They got their phd i think they factor it, but at this point, there is just a tunnel vision. We now have ontime inventories, so we do not need to stockpile supply as much as we did in the past. Joe i have a chart in the terminal of these inventories, andrew. 1950ssee from the through the 1980s these huge swings. We go from the 60s to the 30s with some regularity. Since the more recent era starting in the 1990s, the since then we do not see the big ups and downs of the chart. Chest but its a permanent struggle. You see the retailer. Look how quickly the retailer said, weights, we can have this brick and mortar set up. Lingering over a few years. It happens quickly. Tot speaks to our ability have this longer, but lower business cycle. Im going to switch gears little bit because i need to get your thoughts on what happens before the french elections, the second round or it right now it seems like everyone is a little complacent believing that mccrone will win. The latest poll is 63 , 37 . Theres a lot of complacency. If they get this wrong and le pen wins, it will be a black swan moment. No one is predicting it. No one is expecting it. It will be a crazy sunday if she does. Julia bigger than brexit, bigger than if trump bigger. Way bigger. Julia thank you. Outlook coming up, and on oil and opec and the saudi aramco ipo. This is bloomberg. Scarlet just a headsup that the s p 500, believe it or not, is on pace to close at a record high. The previous record close was 2395. 1. We will see if it can sustain these gains. Julia . Julia thank you, scarlet. Whatd you miss . Stabilizing after yesterdays sell up but wti posting a third weekly decline. More, citys and head of Global Research says it is not just technicals. He spoke earlier on bloomberg daybreak americas. Its all technicals. Nothing fundamental. Nothing has changed in the market. It is expectations i am part. It is technicals in part. We had a record amount of trading for a couple minutes. It was all shorts coming into the market. The narrative for the fundamentals is bearish as well. How self fulfilling is this and how much lower can it go . To call never positive a bottom, but i suspect this is a great buying opportunity. The market is fundamentally tightening up. I think through be a shift in Financial Sentiment and that will help boost the price going forward. We are expecting a big jump in price by the end of the year. Market, but iis want to understand the fundamentals part. You say it is technicals, not fundamentals. What about the reports of the increase . And china . There is softness in the numbers. They are tightening in the credit. How are we confident but that is not triggering this . Was thelly part of this chinese numbers. They were not negative, but less positive than they had been. Iron ore and copper is a china story. Its not related to the rest of the macro world. Is the expectation that gold was going to selloff. We had gold popping up for no good reason and now its going back down to reality. On the oil side, youve got to want,t who is producing who is capable of producing want. We had a real cuts. Eventually inventories will have to respond. What opec did is undermine its own objective. I will give you three of three examples. Between last september 28 and november 30 when they had an agreement, they increased production by 1. 5 Million Barrels a day. That production came in to western market and china in the first quarter. They caused a little exuberance in the market. The price went up. The curve flattened. It no longer was viable oil inially to store tankers. That also came out of the market. That was a good xd billion barrel mark 60 billion barrel draw. Had going into the market, record length if you want to put it in barrels. 950 Million Barrels. Basically 100 of where it had been in the fall. That eventually sold off, but it created a pop in the price and the u. S. Shale industry not only the u. S. Shale industry but almost record hedging levels in the third quarter. We have not seen the surge in production yet. We do not know what that surge is going to be. Jonathan we will continue this conversation a moment. For opec members, have you say you know what, when we debate the next extension of cuts, i want no part of it . For a reason it is low couple reasons who actually cut. Saudi arabia did most of the cup. Theres a little cut in the uae, a little cut in kuwait. They met the opec quota. Nigeria is going nowhere, iraq is going nowhere, it ran is probably going down. Libya may have an uncertain pop up. Venezuela has been losing production at a rate of 220,000 to 30,000 girls a day per month or it they are balancing the market per month. They are balancing the market. Morse that was ed speaking on bloomberg daybreak americas earlier today. Joe Wti Crude Oil prices plummeted and briefly dipped before below 40 per barrel. We look at three charts that help explain oils collapse. This is bloomberg. Julia so, we are going to talk about oil. What a week in trading. We have talked many times about the macro issues. Opec, what are they going to do . Shale production. I am showing you the technicals year. The fibonacci. You see the colors you can see. We took out the 200Day Moving Average last week. In the chart we just went lower and lower and lower. We were talking earlier about the bloomberg markets, about the importance of the 14 barrel 14 40 a barrel number. Them saying that they have reached capitulation, throwing those kinds of words around. The question is, what can opec do when they meet in a couple weeks time, if anything, and can they if gravity on the fundamentals . Scarlet everyone is looking at the technicals. They are also looking at the positioning. You can see, it has gone out pretty consistently over the last 12 months, even this week. There. O to the very end there is the price of oil. The number of contractors are on a record high. Analysts say that this is usually a sign of new shorts and the market. But the problem with oil going to one of our strategist, this has broken down in the last two months and we are filtering to figure out why that is. More telling, he said, you want to look at managed money. Not come outdoes on time, it is delayed by a week. When it does come out, we are likely to see a big drop, and that will be much more telling. Joe with all of this speculative action, lets look at the u. S. Oil rig count. This chart goes back to 2007. The rig count has crashed, of course. We have fresh data out today, as we do every friday. It just keeps going back up. At one point, we were told that the that opec wanted to crush the production in the u. S. , but you cannot keep the u. S. Production down and that is going to keep pressure to the downside on the price of oil. Scarlet much to opecs chagrin. Julia inventories keep building. Scarlet the market closes next. Take a look at the major indexes. Less than four minutes to be close. The s p 500 on track for a record close. So, to you will, the nasdaq. Julia we are minutes away from the closing bell. Whatd you miss . The s p 500 and nasdaq closing at record highs this friday. I am julia chatterley. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Joe i am joe weisenthal. If you are joining us live on twitter, we want to welcome you to our closing bell coverage from 4 00 to 5 00 eastern. Scarlet we begin with market minutes. An afternoon rally pushed the nasdaq and s p 500 to record highs. At nasdaq to 6100, the s p 2400. Joe almost round numbers across all three indices. It comes on the heels of a betterthanexpected jobs report. Unemployment unexpectedly held. We will dig into that later on. In terms of the breakdown of how different sectors performed, come inside the bloomberg to look inside the inside. Health care and financials were lower, fairly lower. Financials down 1 10 of 1 . There is plenty of green here as well. Energy, the best performers up 1. 6 as gas prices rebounded from yesterday. Telecom companies up better than 1 . In terms of the actual daily movers, julia pointed out we have shorted Energy Stocks leading the advances such as chesapeake. Those stocks getting a big lift on the back of oil prices. Priceline and expedia, both lower marginally. The u. S. Hotel industry will have a lobbying attack on expedia and priceline. The Trump Administration believes they are monica list monopolistic. Joe lets look at the Government Bond market. Week,a quiet end to the two year yield unchanged. The report did not do a whole lot to change the expectations about the shortterm passive rate. Sensitiveand end to banking policy. That topline is strong. Underlying weakness, not much action there. Julia i will start with the dollar, slightly higher. Everyone absorbed the fact we had softer wages. It is a touch lower, but little changed on the day. Little changed for policy, either. The euro trading at record highs. That is what to watch, especially considering the french election. These. Then i want to focus on emergingmarket currencies. I mentioned what we saw yesterday with the weakness from oil from canada. One of the big gainers is the South African rand, pulling back against the dollar. I want to show you what is going on. We have seen 12 returns from the likes of ruble. They say, watch the turkish lira. The currency had a record low in january. The Central Bank Rate hikes started to lend report here. Arounde saying carryover 3. 8 this quarter, it has further to run. The lira is one to watch in carryover trade. Joe finally on commodities, crude oil ending higher today. That was the big story of the week, the big selloff in crude. We were in the midor low 50s, now 47 a barrel. Oil picking up gold picking up a little. Here we see a today chart of oil. Earlier this morning with oil falling out of bed, below 44 a barrel at one point before rebounding. There was panic right there. If we take a longer look of look at oil, it puts it in perspective. We had a march dip and that rebounded. Now we are selling off even deeper, back to levels seen last november. Keep an eye on this one. Scarlet just right after the election. Those are the market minutes. Julia take a deep dive in the bloomberg. Froman find these charts the function at the bottom of the screen. I want to wrap up what we have been saying all week about commodities. This chart shows the correlation in the past between what happens when we saw commodity market selloff and what