My question to you is what could possibly go wrong . John let me count the possible ways. This is her relationship with the press is not great. This game they have played of not doing this in a straightforward way has annoyed members of the press who are already inclined to be annoyed with her, but i do think there will be a story. As soon as she speaks, there will be what is the message, what is the beat . There is nothing here. I think that is the likeliest thatbad narrative. Mark it is unfair the press plays a big role. I dont know why a campaign would try to get their candidate better relationship with the press is launching in a way that will annoy the press. The expectations are skyhigh. The media expect this to run like an incumbent campaign. They will get back coverage for the bumps. John why not announce it a week from now . Because of all these things, it is going to be 200 reporters in des moines. She will be in a coffee shop and they are saying they will go low to the ground you cannot do that with 200 reporters. They will figure out a way to get a few in the room but 200 that is not normal. Mark if she delivers a great message, she can pay for these problems. Coming this weekend. John we will see. Here are three things that Hillary Clinton is not what you singing. Trey gowdy a blackberry commercial and our new poll. We will have new result coming. The first four numbers are all bad for Hillary Clinton. Bad number 1 her favorability number is down to 40 , the first time it has been below 50 in any bloomberg poll since 2009. That number 2 72 of democrats and independents say they would like to see hillary facfe a stiff challenge. Just 42 of democrats say they would definitely vote for hillary if she is nominate. Bad number four, about a quarter of democrats and independents say she was not completely truthful about the emails of benghazi. That is a quaddeckaer of badness. Which of the numbers is the nastiest . Mark i think it is the issue of people wanting competition because we are dealing withh this extraordinary situation very qualified woman. We have not seen a coronation of this before of a nonincumbent. A lot of democrats would like to see the competition. If she performs great, if she reminds people wow, this is why we put it all all are tips on her to win, i think she will be ok but those numbers are bad. John the one i look at his favorability. Horserace numbers do not look that much this far out. Favorability really matters. She if you think about it, it is the first time she has been down below 50 . At a time she was at 65 , close to 70 . The most popular public figure in america, almost as popular as the pope. She is down to 48 . I think the email story has taken a toll on her. You are starting to see an acrosstheboard. This has happened. It has hurt her in a quantifiable way. Mark you look at her public appearances, her book tour, they have been paid speeches, vacation all things like the event that was not originally good. And then the email bank. Thing. This is probably the third time i said this you probably need shshe needs a Strong Performance and if she does, she can win the primary. John the scouting report we have one of our categories of the best moments of the 2016 cycle. I know we are not finished with that but what we both agreed on is we cannot come up with one. It has been she has been on this for over a year where there is not aot really a good moment for Hillary Clinton. This is the moment she has to turn it around. Mark another brainchild. There are two things americans love those best pizza and guns. In the face of the nra, it was kicked off before Hillary Clintons announcement. From a coronation, you dont get the best from america or even the best from the democratic party. What you get instead is Hillary Rodham clinton. Illegal gifted, monicagate, benghazi gate, email date white server gate. She will not bring a dawn of new promise and opportunity. Hillary Rodham Clinton will bring a permanent darkness of deceit and of despair forced upon the american people. Mark a lot of potential president ial candidates spoke after him. Headed into 2016, who is on the office . Star wars or gun control . John you look at the polling after sandy hook and newtown, we doubt there will be a turning point. We got the nra was weakening. None of those things are true. It is not like there was not a Second Amendment absolutist position. The majority of people are more for gun rights now than they were three years ago. It is clear. Mark the democratic nominees for president , since blue bill clinton, have been people that are a little more aggressive on gun safety. One of the many questions about Hillary Clinton and how she will perform is what does she do about these issues because she will probably follow her husbands instinct which is s less aggressive. You can see every major republican president ial candidate with one or two exceptions rand paul, Chris Christie at this meeting and basically speaking about the importance of this second amended. John i think the key thing is it is true there has been thehat gun rights are on the march. It is a matter of salience for voters that care enough to vote about it. Those people will vote republican anyway. Those are not movable voters anyway. This is not an issue that is going to hinge on. Mark be look at this stage that will decide the election virginia, colorado, ohio those are very big. John all states that barack obama one. Won. Mark the poll numbers have shifted to some extent. Maybe not as they were before but they have changed. John the Convention Today was a good conservative bought annaroo. Maybe like jumbo shripmp . We will have a lot more to say about it when we come back. Mark the Nra Convention in nashville is wrapping up. To be didnt have all of you watch it, we did it for you. John lets start with some hunting stories from scott walker. Scott walker i love to hunt whether it be with my rifle or shotgun or sometimes i use a good bow. I love to hunt. Sometimes i think it is about the heritage of our state that has really been from one generation to a next about hunting and trapping and fishing. Really, it is more fundamental than it, it is deeper than that. It is about freedom. When we signed into law concealed carry after the previous governor vetoed it three times, it was about freedom. When we signed a law about something that has been talked about for years, it was my freedom because we wanted to people give people in our state the right to stand up and protect themselves and their families and their loved ones and their property. It is about freedom and we need more about that in america and that is what is at risk in this country. Not just from this president but from people like Hillary Clinton and others. It is not just the Second Amendment that is at risk. John was just frame this up. Lets just frame this up. It has been a catapult. A lot of what were looking at is how do these guys connect with the base . Scott walker has been on a roll this entire year. That rolled up sleeves thing but that was a pretty good performance. He is speaking their language. He is talking to the issue and framing it in terms of the liberty agenda. Some of these guys are basically doing speeches or talking with stuff that did not have any integration of the gun message with the broader conservative fame. I thought scott walker did a good job. Mark he is probably the strongest of the people that spoke today in terms of audience reaction which is weaving the message. He is very comfortable giving that kind of speech to that audience. The fact is as we try to figure out where scott walker is going to play in this notion of india you going to play in the establishment bracket, the social conservative bracket yes the play with the most votes are. He has great support amongst gun rights advocates. John that is why he is dangerous to a guy like jeb bush. The wisconsin thing, that seems credible. Mark as comfortable as scott walker was, today was another opportunity to see if jeb bush could figure out to give a prepared speech. Today, the results were at best mixed. Jimeb bush it is the worldview of barack obama and Hillary Clinton and eric holder and all that other people that want to take the guns out of the hands of the good guys and the hands of the lawabiding citizens. The Second Amendment is one area where the Obama Administration has run into a wall. That wall is the kevlar covered wall of the end our day. Florida was one of the first states to make the Castle Doctrine the law of the land. If somebody enters your home and you fear for your safety, you should not try to escape first. Before the law was passed jurors were told we were supposed to run away from your home rather than defend yourself and your family. We fixed that. Mark another great speech and he gave his florida record and gave good buzzwords. I have to say he is making me think that bush 41 was a better public speaker than jeb bush. John he put me to sleep. Mark that is an audience that wants to be fired up. John to go to this is that establishment it looked like he was at the board room of Procter Gamble or something. Jeb looked lieke a ceo. Mark finally, lets take a look at marco rubio at the nra today talking about liberty. Center senator centersenator rubio we cannot restrict our enemies. My dad working as a bartender in a hotel and my mother working as a maid and startcock clerk, they were able to achieve the american dream. We going to leave our children worse off than ourselves . That is the question that would find this generation defined as generation and i have an answer in mind. In three days in miami, i will announce whether i will run for president , for reelection to the senate or commissioner of the National Football league. [laughter] mark i love that cute little smile. He was good. He also did what walker did was go with a personal story speech with rhetoric that would appeal to the nra. John he is a viagra free driven candidate at this point. Biography driven candidate at this point. His family story is at the core of hisof his message. Even his fans are saying he needs a second act because that story is one that a lot of people in the party have already heard. Mark rubio and walker probably the two strongest but nobody dominated in the first day of speeches. John coming up, the 21st centurys r. W. Johnny apple. Jonathan martin will be here when we get back. Mark our guest is the Jennifer Lopez of political journalism and i mean he does it all. Jonathan martin of the new york times. Thank you for coming back. Rand paul announced this week and if you believe the media he has had a horrible week. What is your sense . Is there gas between what the elite press are singing about him fighting with journalism and what it is actually happening in iowa or New Hampshire were circlingor South Carolina . Jonathan shortterm we get wrapped up in what he said to this reporter or that report. Mostly voters do not care. In the shortterm, does not hurt him. In the longterm, it does because it gets out one of his Court Challenges which is he has audiological issues but also performance issues. The fact is when you keep behaving like that on my television it is going to create Live Television is going to create mark it is insane going into it knowing that this is your biggest weakness. Not of what he did really helped him. He could not handle scrutiny. Jonathan that is one of the central challenges. You cannot apparently have discipline to basically go on tv, take tough questions and answer them at a civilized straightforward fashion. This is not a new issue for him. This goes back to his campaign for 2010. I note for a fact, his people have talked to him about it. He knows he has an issue because for some reason, he cannot seem to restrain himself. John here is my question a lot of attention has been given to the extent as to the libertarian rand paul which has become more conservative. There is this shooting in South Carolina. He has made a huge banner issue out of criminal justice. When he is asked about it by what blitzer and other people, he backpedals. This is mostly wanted her signature one of your signature themes. A republican what is the strategic calculation behind that . Walking away from the things that is both make you different when different is supposed to be your brand. Jonathan i dont think there is a calculation. I think he is a talented political performer, but somebody that is playing on a different level right now. John a lower level . The Minor Leagues . Jonathan it is going from playing on a pretty Good High School battle Team Basketball team to playing in the final four. Mark it was very well done, right . In louisville . By the end of the week, you think he is stronger in your view than before his announcement as potential nominee or does the totality of the week make you think he is weaker . Jonathan he had a good plan for his announcement in kentucky on monday. If you asked him or people what is your strategy in the interviews you are going to do starting with the today show Tuesday Morning going through the week, i dont think he would have an answer. What was his goal after the announcement and was not clear to me. Mark moving to rubio if you talked to people in the rubio camp and the clinton camp, you hear Different Things about is this a coincidence that she is going to basically announce on a sunday and he will announce on monday. Both cancer trying to spin this as not either, this was a plan or great for us. Is a good for marco rubio to have the opportunity to juxtapose himself with Hillary Clinton or is bad because he will be overshadowed . Jonathan it is not bad but it is not great to see it as a great thing. If you would had a ted cruz read a ride on the media like we had two weeks ago, yes. Is he going to find a way to try to create a dynamic where he is this generational bookend on monday to her sunday announcement . Yes. Will it be effective . We will see. Mark how does he do it . Jonathan he makes changes to his speeches to talk about what she said on monday. It is a frame about his campaign about why be a summary that reflects a 21st century approach to government. John one of your colleagues wrote a piece about how the arc of rubio going from a protege of Jeb Bush Tonelli potential rival. Two now i potential rival. What made you think he is a plausible challenger against this guy jeb bush . What flipped the switch rubi for rubio . Jonathan jeb bush is as strong as marco rubio. It is a striking difference. I think rubio looks at that and said yes, jeb will take up a lot of the money but are there actual voters for him the answer so far very early is to be determined. If you are rubio, you will give him a shot. He has until late next spring. He has options. For now, jeb looks not vulnerable, but he does not look invincible. Mark can rubio beat bush and walker . Can he go after them and take them down . Jonathan i think it is possible but he would need to help. Mark for you these debates. Jonathan you will have nine or 10 candidates at least on stage and it will be going after a comomon target. Mark im using the metaphor roller derby. Where is rubio vulnerable . If people decide he is a threat where is his greatest vulnerability . Jonathan i think it is the immigration issue. On style, it is the question about we have artie tried barack obama we have already tried barack obama wants, we will not try it again. A really good speaker, someone who is talking about generational change but did not have the kind of governing experience to back it up. The rubio folks will argue a different scenario he was the speaker of the Florida House more policy innovations that obama. N obama. Mark it is been announced that rubio will do it interview after his event on monday. Guess who we is doing it with . Jonathan sean hannity. Mark correct. Jonathan martin, thank you. We will be right back. John we are only on the twoube a half hour a day. We are on bloombergpolitics. Com. Mark up next, taking stock and on radio bloomberg law. Sayonara. Pimm hello. I am pimm fox. U. S. Stocks rallied today. The s p 500 closed within 1 of its record, and the markets moved higher. It was helped by g. E. s 10 jump coming after the Company Announced a 50 billion Share Buyback program. Shares of netflix gained more than 3 in late trading after asking investors to approve a huge increase in the number of shares, a possible prelude to a stock split. Former secretary of state and former new york senator Hillary Clinton is expected to officially launch her 2016 president ial bid on sunday