Donald trump. Ben carson has fallen down to 13 , a 15 drop from our october poll, but naturally, donald trump is still in charge, and a new poll has him dominating the field at 41 . There is no one else who comes close. Ted cruz is second at 14 . Still, trump spend the weekend hitting ted cruz on policy positions, on personal stuff, and on his temperament, calling his rival a little bit of a maniac. Cruz is still turning the other cheek, however, and, john, we will talk about that, but ahead of the debate tomorrow, what do you think will happen next in the debate and cruztrumphe conflict . John remember those old comic books like bam, powie . That is what i think will happen. Donald trump cannot resist going after ted cruz at this point. I cant imagine that tomorrow is not going to feature fisticuffs. Mark does cruz hit trump back . If so, what does he hit back on . John it will be an extraordinary test of his discipline. He has been very discipline so far, not going after him and public. Mark i dont think hes going to go after him. If he does go after him i think it will be more in sadness and anger. John yes, i think it will be a counterpunch effort. Cruz is not going to launch the fisticuffs. We saw that this weekend. Just the whole personality of trump is not to have someone ahead of him, it is just intolerable for him, and he thinks every time he gets ahead of him he takes them out. He is going to want to test that with ted cruz. He will not allow him to sit in first place in iowa. First place. Mark ted cruz is an angelical from cuba. He has not found the right wording yet and he is always very proud when you get the right wording. I believe that trump will hit cruz on not being an american, because he was born in canada. John it would be consistent, given trumps credentials, the birther, for him to play the birther card. Mark that has not bothered mr. Trump before. I do believe that people are thinking trumps attitude will be that he does not need to win iowa. But he knows if he wins iowa and New Hampshire he could close it , out early. John we have seen him go after iowa over the weekend on oil. And the ethanol. I think that will be an area he is going to hit that especially in iowa. In the debate i imagine him going after the hypocrites. There are themes coming out of cruz acting like a different guy in new york than he plays in iowa. Trump likes the character attack. The likes the psychological. Jibe. Mark beholden to millionaires and billionaires. John and he is a phony. Mark right now cruzs , favorableunfavorable rating is skyhigh. The task will be more difficult than it was several weeks ago. John and it makes him harder to attack. All right, there is still more than a month before the Iowa Caucuses, and polls are just a snapshot of any given race, any given moment. But with all of that, ted cruzs momentum in iowa has a wellfunded campaign and the super pac and his perceived strength in the southern states. The question on everyones mind is this, whether cruz past trump suddenly as the most likely republican nominee. So, mark, i will ask you. What say ye . Mark i think the chances of being the nominee are roughly equal. Until cruz shows he can pass trump in any other state, i have to think that trump still the favorite. The other thing is, i am not the first to say this they are not , any crazier about cruz than trump. And i think when it comes down to it that cruz will have to find his way to a whole, broad constituency and he is not there yet. He is good, but he is not there yet. John right. And the thing about cruz is that he is not going to win New Hampshire. I rule it out because its an issue of profiling. They are not going to want to ratify. I do think that the question, as i have been saying, if cruz gets into first place, what does that do to trump . What does that do to his psychology . What does that do to his tactics . What is the new dynamic . Its why i think there is some chance that cruz was the more likely nominee than trump, because i think there is a chance that if cruz wins iowa, it will deflate trump in such a way that someone else beat him in New Hampshire, and then he fightsave lost two straight and that will be crippling. Mark the biggest questions in the race right now, beyond the shortterm question on how these two fight is does , trump have a Real Organization . How does trump handle adversity . I think we all believe that ted cruz will fight fiercely, even if he does worse in iowa than he wants. John there is a third question though that is related to the first question. Is trump willing to spend money on this race . Thats not just about organization. That is about ads. We still dont know the answer, whether donald will face an opponent like ted cruz and spending tens of millions of his own money to finance this race if he starts to believe he might not win. Mark there are prechristmas some negative ads against cruz. John i do not know. He is there he he really wants to win. He is also really cheap, proudly cheap, and he has said before if he doesnt think he is going to win, he would just get out of the race. He might not get out of the race that quick, but he may think. Mark he is still the favorite until cruz overtakes him a little more. But it is getting closer, and cruz has extraordinary assets in fundraising and in super pacs, and an extraordinary, diverse coalition. It needs to be bigger, but he has got a real coalition. John and a real past. Mark most of the attention is on ted cruz and donald trump, and the rest of the republicans in the race are feeling this, like the other movies coming out on the same day as star wars. One of them is marco rubio. His campaign is putting out a new ad this week in iowa and New Hampshire, and it contains an extraordinary litany of conservative positions. This election is about the essence of america, about all of us who see a lot of place in our own country. A government out of touch and millions of traditional values branded bigots and haters. Is that wages growing slower than the cost of living, a generation drowning in debt, and the president humiliated by putin, iran, and islamic jihadists. I am marco rubio, and i approve this message. Because this is about the greatest country in the world and acting like it. Mark all right, john, we will be out in las vegas tomorrow for the debate. He is fascinating. Thats incredible grab bag of issues. My question is, is rubio right now the third most likely nominee, the most likely to disrupt a twoperson race, or is someone else in that slot . John it will either be marco rubio or Chris Christie. I say this as a disclaimer every time i say this, i have been very bearish on Chris Christie every time i say this, but i think there is a better chance of Chris Christie winning in New Hampshire rather than marco rubio winning. Maybe if rubio finishes a strong third, maybe he will get a boost, and that will boost him in New Hampshire. But today . Today . I have this gut feeling that christie is in a better position than review because of his there and hisn rise. Stop the best chance to them, and the reason why i think that is rubio today is he has had some scrutiny, and he has withstandedd it it well. A bigill go after him in way. Lets see if he can survive that or not. But i also believe that Chris Christie is not as strong in iowa as i thought. Marco rubio may still be the top finisher in iowa, and that slot, top finisher in iowa john there is no doubt it is meaningful, and i do not at all be little or diminish your point about scrutiny, but i do think there are a lot of republicans who will look at those guys and , marco rubio looks good on paper, and Chris Christie looks good in the flesh, someone who looks good, projects strength and adulthood, maturity, and i know that sounds crazy to say maturity, but he has a gravitas. I think there is something about him. Mark watch rubio in the debate tomorrow. John the democratic timbers from our iowa poll up next, the democratic numbers from our iowa poll. John the other big headline is on the democratic side. The last time we were in the field in october, Hillary Clinton had expanded her lead over Bernie Sanders in the Hawkeye State. She is now at 49 to his 48 to his 39 of likely Democratic Caucus goers. Sanders still leads in the traditional areas of strength. Who would be best in fighting for the middleclass class and in reining in wall street. Mark, with the next democratic debate coming up on saturday in New Hampshire, should Hillary Clinton, looking at this poll, the Gold Standard be happy with , these numbers or a little bit worried. Mark a little bit worried. The clinton people think the gap is the sweet spot between two ead, and too small a lead, which would look like panic. Sanders thinks it is fantastic news. She had a great run in the media, she had the debate, and sanders is within double digits. He is within hailing distance of clinton, and i think he can still threaten her in iowa. The key is her organization. It is financed and energetic, but can it turn out voters . John its a sad octopus moment for Hillary Clinton. For this reason. We took a poll in october before she had that incredible run, and in the intervening months, they saw her ahead by 20, 30, 40 points. Those were all ridiculous polls, but, again, im with the sanders cap on this. If she is not ahead by double is the one it december, thing we know is that any good run will be followed by a bad run, and the press will want this to be a battle. January, the polls will tighten. Sanders is going to put a lot of money on the air, and i think you are looking at a margin of error, and that is not where Hillary Clinton wants to be. Mark but the enemy of Clintons Campaign in iowa is complacency and feeling like their people do not need to be engaged, because sanderss people are energized and engaged. John i dont mean to say shes not the favorite, im just saying she should be nervous. Coming up, our conversation with two former president ial candidate and what they said about the state of the 2016 race. We will be right back. Mark earlier today, john and i went over to the palace hotel here in gotham city where , Business Leaders gathered to discuss national security, immigration, entitlement reform, and deficit reduction. It was a meeting of the group no labels. It advocates for centrist policies in trying to break through the partisan gridlock in washington. We had a chance to talk to sell of the Business Leaders there about the issues that matter most to them in the context of the 2016 president ial race. I would say Energy Security would be at the top of my list. Obviously, the right place with the deficit would you there also. Job creation and growth, and world leadership. Because the enemy is not within. We are competing on a global stage now. Income inequality, the stagnation of middleclass income, those are central issues. Those are not left or right issues. We may have a disagreement about the tactics or the programs to address those. Simplifying the tax base. People dont believe that it is fair, either to individuals or corporations. It is too complex. That will support job creation if we had a more straightforward tax system. Mark no labels is run by two past president ial candidates, the former connecticut senator former manan and the from utah jon huntsman. ,john and i sat down and started our conversation by talking about the 2016 election, with a little historical perspective. Lets start with a little politics. You both ran for president in pretty raucous years. How would you compare this cycle to the one you guys were in . More raucous. This is unprecedented. When iran in 20032004, there were more than 10 candidate. I forget the number. But there are some comparisons with the republican race, and it was much more mood is divisive and bombastic. I would say the mood within the Republican Party is more extreme, probably driven by a sense that we are losing our place in the world, we are falling behind, and that the economy really has not been able to reset itself. Preeconomic collapse. And so there is an extreme that, and it is giving rise, i think, to more candidates who are bringing a more extreme message in terms of how they would deal with and address these issues. Smaller field, more genteel conversation about the issues. Big difference. John you guys spoke on your careers in public service, in this organization, committed to common sense, centrist, pragmatic, trying to get to the middle in a lot of ways. Right. John when you look at this race, both on the democratic and republican side, do you have a cause for despair . My last years in the senate were the most divisive and least productive for the chamber. Of my 24 years there, and it has only gotten worse, and that is why the country is so mad. But the answer to the anger is not to give them more reasons to be a great and devices divisive. To find Common Ground and salt some problems. So we are moving toward problemsolving. That is the whole thesis is no labels. This admittedly is not a primary play. What we are hearing in the market, we are seeing a world away from what we are advocating, but we think we are on the side of most americans. In fact polling would suggest , that the American People want a problemsolving president , both parties to work to get a few issues done, and they want greater harmony in washington. What we are doing suggests that we may be ahead of the game, but whoever is racing toward the finish line on either side, democrat or republican, this is the message that is going to be a winning message, so we may be ahead in the game but i think at the end of the day this is what will resonate. John it feels like your voice gets drowned out in the howling wind of politics. Its a problem. Because the louder you shout and the more extreme the content that you are shouting about the , more attention you get. Mark what about deficit reduction . You have got to have your foot on the accelerator. So if you look at the positive trend, id have to say that we have a new speaker of the house who seems to be a little more collaborative. Hes expert in tax reform, which is going to be part of the whole scenario, so if you can imagine combining the work of our news with a new of our new speaker with a new president , lets just stop and think that we may have a window, and opening, a honey with period of 100 days during which they can get some work done, like we were advocating. You have the executive branch and the legislative branch doing a couple of pro growth things. It could really stimulate and spur the economy to do better than we are forecasting, which maybe is two point 5 , maybe 3 when the sun is shining. That would add to the revenue side, which would be a huge boost in terms of overall deficit reduction. Mark in terms of economic growth, health care is a huge issue. The Affordable Care act. The president says it is the greatest achievement decades, republicans say horrible. Ruining america. How do you evaluate where it two is currently, substantively, and what the challenge of the next president will have improving it and making it less of a drag on the economy . Health care, in general. To me, i talk about socalled obamacare, is the best thing or the worst. But it is there. I remember when president clinton came in toward the end of the obamacare debate, and he said to some of us who are still uncertain about whether to support it, this system is so complicated, the status quo is not working. Get it as good as you can get it in this session, but know youre going to come back every session for the next 20 or 30 years to fix it. The problem is, when you are in the midst of a backbiting war in congress, you do not come back and fix it. The changes there are going tuesday. You are not going to repeal it. Too many people are getting insurance who did not get it before. Hopefully, people will Work Together and fix it. My worry about it is that some of the numbers have encouraged some of us to vote for it, which was if you had adopted the Affordable Care act it would be for the budget, they are not going to pan out. Im worried about it. I have not reached a conclusion, but i am waiting to see. Part of the problem is that some of the unpopular things that have already been stopped by executive action are the wines going into revenue. Everyone wants the benefits and no one wants to pay for it, and that is where we have the humongous deficits. I used to say huge deficits, but i do not say it anymore because it has been coopted. John the leading candidate for republican nomination is donald trump. Donald trump wins the presidency in what does that look like . 2017. Is there any way that a donald Trump Presidency could lead the direction you guys have here . I am trying to imagine some of the things he said on the stump, and reconciling them with Problem Solver president s in the final stretch. Although, in a recent conversation we had in New Hampshire, he said, listen, i have worked in diverse groups and in complex areas. Todays unable to consider i will be able to cross that , impenetrable divide. He used those words. Notwithstanding the overthetop rhetoric we have heard. John did you buy that . His history would suggest he is a bit of both in the private sector. John senator lieberman, the same question for Hillary Clinton, who is most likely the next president of the united states. Clinton. Hillary clinton, as polarizing as she is, could she be a no label president . Yes. I base that on knowing her for a long time. I have not endorsed anyone. I have been enjoying the cover of no labels. Yes. I mean, her whole background, i watched it in the senate, particularly, and she was part of the clinton administration, so will she definitely . Who knows, but she knows how to negotiate. She knows how to compromise. My guess is she